Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

[Woodsman]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

In such a rush....

Don't blame me, I was only Commander in Chief.



Not my fault, I was Vice President and had no authority.



Wasn't me. I was only following orders.



Not us. We had nothing to do with it.



Let's watch some more Homeland.

"Smart and dumb are excellent descriptions for Homeland, which in its scintillating first season conflated absorbing character studies with plot points so utterly implausible that it left viewers not sure whether to hate the show or love it."

Homeland isn't just bad TV, it peddles the worst lies about US foreign policy

[don]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Jesus, Woody, well done!

[don]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Grading the Putin school of international affairs: Codevilla

BY ANGELO CODEVILLA on OCTOBER 6, 2015 in AT OPINION, MIDDLE EAST

Vladimir Putin is reshaping the Middle East to fit Russia’s interests by adhering to fundamentals of international affairs that the several parts of America’s foreign policy establishment have set aside in favor of what they deem sophistication.

Unlike our “Realists,” who start out compromising our interests with those of local allies, Putin is bending theirs to Russia’s. Unlike our Liberal Internationalists who try to lead by giving power to local allies, Putin directs them in operations of his choice. Unlike our Neoconservatives who deploy force piecemeal endlessly, Putin uses it decisively.

The Wall Street Journal’s “Realists” in a Sept. 29 piece fretted that Putin’s tank/plane/artillery expeditionary force is empowering Iran as well as Syria’s Assad: “Russian planes can target anyone Assad deems an enemy.” No. They are targeting anyone who stands in the way of Russia’s objectives. That’s a big, big difference. Neither Assad, nor Iran, nor Iran’s Shia allies in what used to be Iraq have any reason to delude themselves that Putin’s assistance will take them any farther toward their own objectives than is absolutely necessary for Putin to achieve his own.

Vladimir Putin

Putin’s objectives are obvious: to secure Russia’s naval base at Tartus, surrounded by a substantial enclave of Alewives rendered reliably reliant on Moscow and who will serve as its pied a terre on the Mediterranean shore, crush all challenges thereto; since ISIS is the apex of the Sunni militancy that is also infecting Russia through the Caucasus, crush ISIS. Unlike our geniuses, Putin knows that the Assad regime, the Shia militias, and the Iranians are the only people who will hazard their lives to save the Alewis and to crush ISIS. So, he is arming and organizing them. But he has no intention of trying to re-unite Syria under Assad, or to try to re-unite Iraq under the Shia, much less of seconding Iran in its Islamic World War against the Sunni.

That is why Russian forces’ first targets are the Sunni militias who are threatening the eventual Alewi enclave in the Northwest, even though they are enemies of ISIS; why Russia will pay no attention to them once they no longer pose that threat, regardless of what Assad might want; why Putin is supporting the Shia militias that are gathering to expel ISIS from Mosul as the Americans never did, but will drop them long before they put a big dent into the Sunni-Stan that now encompasses what had been western Iraq and eastern Syria. Putin will, however, help these Shia to make an example of ISIS the dread of which will resound across the Caucasus. After that, The folks in Baghdad, Damascus, and Teheran notwithstanding, Putin can be expected to propose a deal to the Saudis and Egyptians about the relationship between an ISIS-free Sunni-Stan and his Mediterranean enclave. They are likely to take those deals. The Israelis have already made their deal with Russia.

Unlike our Liberal Internationalists, Putin knows that foreigners’ incentives cannot overcome a people’s reluctance to fight only for their own ends. Knowing Sunni Arabs’ kinship to ISIS, he does not imagine that they can be relied on to fight it, or that the Kurds will fight ISIS beyond keeping it away from Kurdistan. That is why Putin allies with people who have their own reasons for exterminating it. Far from conditioning the alliance on asking the Shia to act moderately, he encourages the bloody sentiments that motivate them in the first place. But since his objectives coincide with theirs only to a certain point, he enters the alliance fully prepared to cut it short once his objectives — not theirs — are achieved.

Unlike our Neoconservatives, Putin knows that force discredits itself if it is not used decisively. Like Napoleon, he knows that you can do anything with bayonets except sit on them. Russia’s expeditionary force in the Middle East, unlike America’s, is not there to drive around replenished minefields, getting legs blown off by IEDs. Their artillery will devastate ISIS’ strongholds as it did Chechnya. Their tank/plane combination will open the way for the murderous militias.

Russia’s military orthodoxy is the decisive difference between its expedition in former Syria and Iraq, and America’s recent ventures. Russian forces seem to be prioritizing objectives, weakening the rear with strategic air strikes then moving the front forward with coordinated combined arms and little if any concern for collateral damage. Historically, this sort of behavior tends to engender respect rather than additional enmity.

Angelo M. Codevilla is professor emeritus of international relations at Boston University, and a member of the Hoover Institution’s working group on military history. He is the author of fourteen books, including Informing Statecraft, War, ends And Means, The Character of Nations, Advice to War Presidents, and To Make and Keep Peace. He served on President Ronald Reagan’s transition teams for the Department of State and the Intelligence agencies. He was a US naval officer and a US foreign service officer. As a staff member of the US Senate Intelligence committee, he supervised the intelligence agencies’ budgets with emphasis on collection systems and counterintelligence.

[don]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Puff the Magic Dragon continues to change shape . . .

US special operations forces – not their Afghan allies – called in the deadly airstrike on the Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kunduz, the US commander has conceded.

Shortly before General John Campbell, the commander of the US and Nato war in Afghanistan, testified to a Senate panel, the president of Doctors Without Borders – also known as Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) – said the US and Afghanistanhad made an “admission of a war crime”.

Shifting the US account of the Saturday morning airstrike for the fourth time in as many days, Campbell reiterated that Afghan forces had requested US air cover after being engaged in a “tenacious fight” to retake the northern city of Kunduz from the Taliban. But, modifying the account he gave at a press conference on Monday, Campbell said those Afghan forces had not directly communicated with the US pilots of an AC-130 gunship overhead.

“Even though the Afghans request that support, it still has to go through a rigorous US procedure to enable fires to go on the ground. We had a special operations unit that was in close vicinity that was talking to the aircraft that delivered those fires,” Campbell told the Senate armed services committee on Tuesday morning.

The airstrike on the hospital is among the worst and most visible cases of civilian deaths caused by US forces during the 14-year Afghanistan war that Barack Obama has declared all but over. It killed 12 MSF staff and 10 patients, who had sought medical treatment after the Taliban overran Kunduz last weekend. Three children died in the airstrike that came in multiple waves and burned patients alive in their beds.

On Tuesday, MSF denounced Campbell’s press conference as an attempt to shift blame to the Afghans.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...-changes-again

[don]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out




Russia Steps Up Role in Syria as Assad Begins a Ground Attack

By ANNE BARNARD and ANDREW E. KRAMEROCT. 7, 2015


BEIRUT, Lebanon — Backed by Russian warplanes, the Syrian army began a ground offensive Wednesday against rebel forces in northern Hama province, while the Kremlin said it had fired 26 cruise missiles on Syrian targets from naval vessels in the Caspian Sea.

Although in its early stages, the coordinated assault reveals the outline of a new alliance between Syria and its main allies — Hezbollah, Iran and Russia — said an official with that alliance, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the parties had not detailed the coordination of military strategy.


The offensive aims to retake areas gained in the spring by an insurgent coalition, the Army of Conquest, that threated the government-held coastal province of Latakia, the homeland of President Bashar al-Assad and fellow members of his Alawite sect. It was the first time since those spring setbacks that the government’s forces had moved “from defense to offense,” the official said.

The ground operation will eventually include new contingents of fighters from Hezbollah, a Shiite militia, as well as the current configuration of Syrian forces backed by Russians in the air, according to the official with the alliance. In addition, Iranian military advisers have long been active on the ground in Syria and would most likely be involved in such a crucial operation.

Speaking in tones of new confidence and optimism, the official called the Russian intervention a game-changing development that put to rest any doubts about Russia’s commitment to Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, who has managed to cling to power despite a civil war that is now in its fifth year.

The ground offensive aims to push insurgents out first in northern Hama Province, where the attacks on Wednesday took place, later moving north into Idlib Province, according to the official and to diplomats and analysts in the region. Probable targets include Jabal al-Zawiya, a mountainous area that insurgents have held for years, and Jisr al-Shughour, a city in Idlib Province, which was captured by insurgents in March — a military victory that was considered an ominous sign for the Syrian government.

The Army of Conquest is an Islamist faction that includes the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, as well as more secular groups that often fight alongside it, including some that have received American aid. Russia has so far refused to make a distinction between the Army of Conquest and the Islamic State, labeling both groups as terrorist.

At certain points in Wednesday’s fighting, United States-backed rebels fired advanced TOW anti-tank missiles at Syria’s Russian-made tanks, amplifying the impression of a proxy war between Russia and the United States. Videos posted by rebel groups, including the American-backed Division 17 and Suqoor al-Ghab, showed the guided missiles sailing toward approaching tanks and destroying them.

(the money shot)

The TOW missiles were provided to some groups in a covert CIA program meant to strengthen relatively moderate, relatively secular forces. But it has suffered setbacks, and the groups have primarily found that they must either fight alongside Nusra or have its weapons seized by the group.

That has put the United States in the uncomfortable position of having groups it has supported using their TOW missiles to help the advances by larger, more powerful Islamist groups, including the Nusra Front, listed as a terrorist group. On the one hand, the groups are serving their purpose, fighting Mr. Assad’s army, and the commanders say they must stay in the game or lose all hope of influence; on the other hand much of the credit and spoils of victory go to Nusra.

[touchring]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

That has put the United States in the uncomfortable position of having groups it has supported using their TOW missiles to help the advances by larger, more powerful Islamist groups, including the Nusra Front, listed as a terrorist group. On the one hand, the groups are serving their purpose, fighting Mr. Assad’s army, and the commanders say they must stay in the game or lose all hope of influence; on the other hand much of the credit and spoils of victory go to Nusra.

In other words, the Rebels have joined Al Qaeda?

[don]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Saudi Arabia is ordering a series of cost-cutting measures as the slide in oil prices weighs on the kingdom’s budget, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
The finance ministry told government departments not to contract any new projects and to freeze appointments and promotions in the fourth quarter, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. It also banned the buying of vehicles or furniture, or agreeing any new property rentals and told officials to speed up the collection of revenue, they said.

With oil accounting for about 90 percent of revenue in the Arab world’s largest economy, a drop of more than 40 percent in crude prices in the past 12 months has combined with wars in Yemen and Syria to pressure Saudi Arabia’s finances. While public debt is among the world’s lowest, with a gross debt-to-GDP ratio of less than 2 percent in 2014, that may rise to 33 percent in 2020, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund.

“In order to demonstrate a bit of fiscal discipline the government

needed to take some measures in 4Q to moderate spending,” John Sfakianakis, a Riyadh-based Middle East director at Ashmore Group Plc, said by phone. “Going forward Saudi Arabia will have to implement spending cuts and efficiencies in order to avoid a runaway fiscal deficit in 2016.”

To help shore up its finances, authorities plan to raise between 90 billion riyals ($24 billion) and 100 billion riyals in bonds before the end of the year, people with knowledge of the matter said in August. The kingdom’s net foreign assets fell for a seventh month to $654.5 billion in August, the lowest level in more than two years. That’s down from a record $737 billion a year earlier.

Economic growth in OPEC’s biggest oil exporter will probably slow to 3 percent this year from 3.6 percent in 2014, according to the median estimate of economists on Bloomberg.

Brent, a benchmark for more than half the world’s crude, was trading at $51.73 per barrel at 1:33 p.m. in London, down about 10 percent this year.

The finance ministry declined to comment. The government was working with advisers on a review of capital spending plans, people familiar with the matter said in August.

The kingdom’s benchmark equities gauge, the Tadawul All Share Index, has dropped 7.8 percent this year amid the decline in crude. While Saudi Arabia’s riyal has been pegged to the dollar for almost 30 years, one-year forward contracts for the currency are trading near the highest since 2003, signaling some traders are increasingly betting it could weaken.

Bloomberg

[vt]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Another good post. appreciate the contributions you provide on a regular basis.

[radon]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

I don't necessarily disagree, but the current administration isn't much better when you see what they stirred up in Libya, Egypt, and Syria. If you're calling the election early for Trump I truly hope you're wrong, for the sake of us all.

[don]

The Empire Strikes . . . ?

Musings on a possible changing of the guard . . .

If, and it's hardly a certainty, US power is both trumped and embarrassed by Russia's coalition in Syria, this would stand as a military event of significant geopolitical importance. The type of event that can bring about a sea change in how a great power is regarded. The inverse of Shock & Awe.

There have been rumors flying about that China is adding military aid to the Russian Syrian effort. Where's the tipping point for Saudi Arabia? If Syria, Iraq and Yemen are stabilized by this coalition, whither the Saudis.

If Saudi oil breaks out of the dollar, the consequences could prove bottomless (aka, unfathomable).

The world's Great Fiat Currency is the dollar, backed by ... the US military, in a symbiotic relationship akin to siamese twins.

The US military remains the most powerful in the world in conventional terms. How will it respond to the above . . . .

[jk]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

Musings on a possible changing of the guard . . .

If, and it's hardly a certainty, US power is both trumped and embarrassed by Russia's coalition in Syria, this would stand as a military event of significant geopolitical importance. The type of event that can bring about a sea change in how a great power is regarded. The inverse of Shock & Awe.

There have been rumors flying about that China is adding military aid to the Russian Syrian effort. Where's the tipping point for Saudi Arabia? If Syria, Iraq and Yemen are stabilized by this coalition, wither the Saudis.

If Saudi oil breaks out of the dollar, the consequences could prove bottomless (aka, unfathomable).

The world's Great Fiat Currency is the dollar, backed by ... the US military, in a symbiotic relationship akin to siamese twins.

The US military remains the most powerful in the world in conventional terms. How will it respond to the above . . . .

whither or wither?

my favorite contrarian take on what's happening in the middle east, from scott adams' blog

President Obama: Wizard or Failure?

Posted October 6th, 2015 @ 11:50am in #ISIS #trump

---

Russia is moving into Old Syria. Iran already owns the parts of Old Iraq that ISIS and the Kurds do not. Israel fears that the nuclear deal with Iran is a mistake of unthinkable proportions.
The data suggests that President Obama is a total failure when it comes to the Middle East.
Or… he is one of the most gifted wizards of persuasion and strategy our generation has ever seen.
The data fits both interpretations. You already know the interpretation that says Obama failed. Allow me to give you another interpretation – one that isn’t necessarily true – but happens to fit the data.
And the fun part is that we can make predictions based on both filters and see which one does the best job of explaining our reality. Just for fun. Don’t get your opinions on world politics from cartoonists.
The Master Wizard Hypothesis says there are people so skilled in the art of persuasion that they control world events while sometimes pretending they are inept, to cover their tracks.
The Master Wizard filter says that President Obama – magnificent bastard and Commander in Chief – just suckered Russia and Iran into the quicksand while taking The United States out of an endless and unwinnable fight.
And … doomed ISIS in the process.
The United States can’t defeat ISIS militarily because doing so would require killing too many civilians. Russia and Iran will have fewer problems in that regard because they control their media and their leaders don’t need to ask permission.
And let’s say you want to build a virtual wall around ISIS to contain them. You would need a substantial military power to guard the coast.
You need Russia.
Right where they are deploying.
The Master Wizard filter says President Obama has a winning plan for eradicating ISIS at the lowest cost for Americans. America’s frenemies have now encircled ISIS, and the American media with their freedom of the press will not be there to watch what happens next.
ISIS is reportedly planting landmines around captured cities to keep the civilian population from escaping. They expected the United States to avoid bombing population centers.
They were right.
But they they did not expect the United States to turn over the fight to Russia and Iran.

ISIS is done.
Unfortunately, so is the civilian population in ISIS-held territory. But living under ISIS probably isn’t much of a life either. And I have heard no one suggest a more humane solution.
The Master Wizard filter says President Obama either created this perfect situation or recognized the opportunity and encouraged it.
That would be totally bad-ass.
The Master Wizard filter also says Iran and the United States are cooperating behind the scenes and getting more comfortable as allies. In the long run, Iran was going to get a nuke if it wanted one. A Master Wizard of Persuasion would seek to keep his enemies close, where persuasion works best. Distance and non-contact are the enemies of persuasion. According to the Master Wizard filter, building an active engagement with Iran, combined with skillful persuasion, reduces risk. (Only a Master Wizard could feel confident in that plan.)

I’m not saying the Master Wizard interpretation of reality is true. I’m just saying the data fits the interpretation. We shall see what the future holds.
Donald Trump, another skilled deal-maker and persuader, also favors walling off ISIS territory to strangle them. In Trump’s case there is also a branding benefit when you define a border. One side can be TERRIBLE while the other is FABULOUS.
Update: Iran’s Supreme Leaders banned further negotiatingwith the United States because he says we are trying to “influence” Iran. Have you ever heard language like that before?

[don]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

whither or wither?

Obviously the former but thanks for the typo insight . . . .

[jk]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

Obviously the former but thanks for the typo insight . . . .

not obvious- i thought you might have been having some linguistic fun and saying the saudis were in big trouble.

[don]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

not obvious- i thought you might have been having some linguistic fun and saying the saudis were in big trouble.

Either or

[touchring]

Re: The Empire Strikes . . . ?

repeat