Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

[jk]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”

what's new? paul kennedy almost 30 years ago, in 1987, published a history of repeated episodes of imperial overstretch going back to the 16th century, "decline and fall of great powers". he included, specifically, the financial burdens of empire and the role of overspending on the military. and of course oswald spengler did a broader but much earlier version in 1918.

[jk]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Lawrence Wilkerson: “The Empire is in Deep, Deep Trouble”

what's new? paul kennedy almost 30 years ago, in 1987, published a history of repeated episodes of imperial overstretch going back to the 16th century, "the decline and fall of great powers". he focused, specifically, on the financial burdens of empire and the role of overspending on the military. and of course oswald spengler did a broader but much earlier version in 1918.

as for the condition of the empire: it appears that the u.s. really can't get much done militarily, but it is still and ever further increasingly, the center of the financial universe.

[Woodsman]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

what's new? Paul Kennedy almost 30 years ago...

You can say that again!

I guess the diff here is that Kennedy is a cloistered academic with no discernible work experience outside the ivory tower (the lucky bastard). Whereas, Col. Larry was one of those coalfaces given so much weight by Our More Credible Members. Given Wilkerson was present at the creation, so to speak, he compliments Prof. Kennedy's thesis with personal and professional anecdotes and his unique point of view.

Of course, I think "Great Powers" remains an important work. The fact that it was predictive of the fall of the Sovs only two years after its publication only enhances the impact of his scholarship. And now we in the States get our turn to play the end game of great power status.

The Brits had the 1946 Greek handover to the US and the Suez Incident ten years later as significant temporal markers of decline. I expect our adventures in Syraqistan - particularly now that the Russians and Iranians have taken the initiative against ISIS - might serve a similar role.

And so it goes.

[don]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Are Saudi, Qatar and Turkey upping the ante?

“There is no future for Assad in Syria,” Saudi foreign minister Adel Al-Jubeir warned, a few hours before the first Russian bombing sorties began. If that was not blunt enough, he spelled out that if the president did not step down as part of a political transition, his country would embrace a military option, “which also would end with the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power”.

With at least 39 civilians reported dead in the first bombing raids, the prospect of an escalation between backers of Assad and his opponents is likely to spell more misery for ordinary Syrians.

“The Russian intervention is a massive setback for those states backing the opposition, particularly within the region – Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey – and is likely to elicit a strong response in terms of a counter-escalation,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.


“There is a high-level, very close co-operation and co-ordination between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. They are almost on the same page in Syria.”

Turkish support has been hampered by domestic turmoil, as it prepares, in effect, to rerun a controversial election after a ceasefire with Kurdish groups collapsed. Qatar and Saudi Arabia, however, clearly have the funds, connections and political will to respond to Moscow’s escalation.


In this context, there may be a small amount of relief in Riyadh over the Russian role, as stepped-up importance for Moscow could edge out some of the Iranian influence.

“Is there a trade-off here? The more one has Russia, the less one has Iran. I imagine that’s one of the ways Russians are selling the idea to Saudis not to look at this negatively,” said Daniel Levy, Middle East and North Africa programme director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

But, overall, the risks from escalation go beyond Syria, he said. “The degree to which Tehran and Riyadh are now in a confrontation mode across a number of regional hotspots is worrisome,” said Levy. “Who can act now as the de-escalating mediator?

“Americans are not in a position to do that, nor Russians, and Iran and Saudi Arabia are not sufficiently talking to each other … you’re now left with almost no one at senior levels on the respective sides who can engage with each other. This is going to be a dangerous place.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...sting-of-assad

[radon]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Are Saudi, Qatar and Turkey upping the ante?
But, overall, the risks from escalation go beyond Syria, he said. “The degree to which Tehran and Riyadh are now in a confrontation mode across a number of regional hotspots is worrisome,” said Levy. “Who can act now as the de-escalating mediator?

Maybe this is supposed to evolve into a proxy war that can be sold to the public as an existential crisis. De-escalation doesn't seem to be on the menu.

[GRG55]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Are Saudi, Qatar and Turkey upping the ante?

“There is no future for Assad in Syria,” Saudi foreign minister Adel Al-Jubeir warned, a few hours before the first Russian bombing sorties began. If that was not blunt enough, he spelled out that if the president did not step down as part of a political transition, his country would embrace a military option, “which also would end with the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power”.

With at least 39 civilians reported dead in the first bombing raids, the prospect of an escalation between backers of Assad and his opponents is likely to spell more misery for ordinary Syrians.

“The Russian intervention is a massive setback for those states backing the opposition, particularly within the region – Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey – and is likely to elicit a strong response in terms of a counter-escalation,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.


“There is a high-level, very close co-operation and co-ordination between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. They are almost on the same page in Syria.”

Turkish support has been hampered by domestic turmoil, as it prepares, in effect, to rerun a controversial election after a ceasefire with Kurdish groups collapsed. Qatar and Saudi Arabia, however, clearly have the funds, connections and political will to respond to Moscow’s escalation.


In this context, there may be a small amount of relief in Riyadh over the Russian role, as stepped-up importance for Moscow could edge out some of the Iranian influence.

“Is there a trade-off here? The more one has Russia, the less one has Iran. I imagine that’s one of the ways Russians are selling the idea to Saudis not to look at this negatively,” said Daniel Levy, Middle East and North Africa programme director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

But, overall, the risks from escalation go beyond Syria, he said. “The degree to which Tehran and Riyadh are now in a confrontation mode across a number of regional hotspots is worrisome,” said Levy. “Who can act now as the de-escalating mediator?

“Americans are not in a position to do that, nor Russians, and Iran and Saudi Arabia are not sufficiently talking to each other … you’re now left with almost no one at senior levels on the respective sides who can engage with each other. This is going to be a dangerous place.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...sting-of-assad

China would seem in the most vulnerable position now...although it may be able to position to play the mediator.

[touchring]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

With Russia into the picture, the anti-assad rebels are screwed, betrayed by their sponsors.

[Woodsman]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

With Russia into the picture, the anti-assad rebels are screwed, betrayed by their sponsors.

Well, they've certainly taken the fight to the enemy. Oh if only CPA Orders 1 and 2 could be taken back. Paul Bremer should be made to live in the monkey cage at the National Zoo, along with the other guilty chimps in the Bush II administration and Congress.

The decision to dissolve the Iraqi army robbed Baghdad’s post-invasion military of some of its best commanders and troops. Combined with sectarian strains that persist 12 years later, it also drove many of the suddenly out-of-work Sunni warriors into alliances with a Sunni insurgency that would eventually mutate into ISIS. Many former Iraqi military officers and troops, trained under Saddam, have spent the last 12 years in Anbar Province battling both U.S. troops and Baghdad’s Shi’ite-dominated security forces, Pentagon officials say.

How Disbanding the Iraqi Army Fueled ISIS

The dimwitted incompetence of our so-called war Presidents and their resplendent general staffs seems boundless. To think things have come to the point where the Russians are emboldened to project power into the region with such vigor. Propose that scenario 12 months ago and Our More Credible Members would have crashed the site with so many laughing emoji.

What a mess. The "Red Army" is coming over the hill to save the world from the Rosemary's Baby that is ISIS; a monster seeded by The Empire, midwifed by the House of Saud and nursed by the Likudniks.

[Raz]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Obama & Bush in ''Dumb and Dumber 2''.jpg

Phil Gotthelf is one very smart man. He developed the first computerized commodity trading program, way back in the 1960s. He very seldom writes about geopolitics.

---

---

The Putin Doctrine

This week was highlighted by Pope Francis and Vladimir Putin. The Pope spread a message of peace. Putin delivered a stunning message of aggression. With diplomatic precision, Putin took interviews with CBS 60 Minutes and gave widespread interviews to define the “Putin Doctrine” in response to the United States and Western Europe. To be sure, the post Putin coverage has tried to paint Putin as dishonest and ruthless. Yet, Putin’s messaging came across as rational and justifiable.



We receive news with an extreme U.S. bias. Thus, when Putin challenges the existence of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in Germany and in support of the NATO boundaries, we scratch ours heads and wonder what he’s talking about. When Putin describes the displacement of Russian citizens with the dissolution of the Soviet Union into the Commonwealth of Independent States, the average American’s eyes glaze over. We are unable to see Putin’s reality.



I have been consistent in pointing this out in SPECIAL REPORTS that date all the way back to the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown… 1986! I have also drawn attention to previous showdowns where Americans were unable to fully comprehend the situation from Russia’s perspective.
During the Kennedy – Nixon debates you would have thought Republicans were doves and Democrats were hawks. Nixon advocated negotiating with Khrushchev to de-escalate the rapid buildup of military industrial complexes. Kennedy vowed to put long range B-52 bombers and tactical Jupiter missiles in Turkey. Khrushchev had already promised to take reciprocal action in Cuba if Kennedy were to make good on his promise. The Cuban Missile Crisis was the net result after the failed Bay of Pigs.



Unlike the U.S. which has a very small Muslim population, Putin is surrounded by substantial Muslim states. Out of fifteen Commonwealth Republics, six have Muslim majorities: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. There are states like Chechnya and the Volga-Ural region that have Muslim populations intent upon seceding from the Commonwealth. The threat of radical Islam in Russia actually exceeds the exposure in the West because Islamic majorities already exist within the Commonwealth structure.



The superficial and self-serving coverage of Putin’s Doctrine by U.S. media is embarrassing. Even more embarrassing and dangerous is the disjointed U.S. foreign policy and ridiculous political positioning of Republican presidential candidates and Democrat defenders of President Obama’s alleged strategy. Talking head retired colonels and generals are truly spewing baseless propaganda that seems totally believable. I have not heard a single mention of the Russian demographic dilemma.



It is not about oil for Putin. Russia has plenty. It is not about territorial dominance. Putin has all he can do to control his own member states. Russia’s involvement in the Middle East is about Islamic containment.

Russia cannot afford any radical encroachment and Putin’s intelligence sources have definitively informed him of ISIS plans to form a Russian front. As Putin pointed out to Charlie Rose on 60 Minutes, President Bush took out Saddam Hussein and created a vacuum in Iraq. President Obama led from behind and allowed radicals to take out Gaddafi in Libya to create a vacuum. Putin is not going to allow the same thing to happen in Syria.



Trust me when I say that Russia’s interests in the Middle East are far more profound than we can imagine.

October 1, 2015
Philip Gotthelf
Commodity Futures Forecast
P.O. Box 566, Closter, New Jersey
201-784-1235
www.commodex.com

[vt]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Of course we probably wouldn't have seen a lot of this terror if Clinton and Berger hadn't failed at the best chance to kill Bin Laden

http://www.forbes.com/sites/henrymil...-bill-clinton/

And then Sandy steals 9-11 docs from the Archives:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/was...rchives-agents

Yeah, Bushes guys were bad, but the D team let the mess get started in the first place.

[vt]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

On the premiere of Homeland last night a room full of CIA analysts asked an agent from the middle east field for an assessment.

He said that ISIS has a strategy and we don't. He said their strategy in in the Koran and its been there since the 7th century; that they want a caliphate that will eliminate all infidels. Until we recognize this the wars will not end.

If this is so it doesn't matter what political part is in power.

P.S. I'm on record that we should not have gone into Iraq.

[Woodsman]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

Of course we probably wouldn't have seen a lot of this terror if Clinton and Berger hadn't failed...

Or if Kermit Roosevelt would have blown his brains out before Kim Jr. was squeezed out. Of course if only Harry hadn't been such a schlemiel to go and get us mixed up in this Levantine shitstorm in the first place, blah blah, yadda yadda...

Muddy the waters, why dontcha.

[touchring]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

It appears that the Saudis are the biggest losers at the end of the day. Their allies (mercenaries) are either running away or collapsing.

Meanwhile, the Chinese are busy hoarding their free oil - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...a-hiring-jumps

Speaking about making hay while the sun shines.

[vt]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

In such a rush to once more blame Bush. Can't admit BOTH side's actions left us where we are now. Not surprising coming from the Ostrich party with it's head in middle east sand.

At least the Russians can be tough against the threat, as Raz contributes with the Putin Doctrine.

NOT endorsing the approach, but one should catch the first episode of Homeland this week.

"And then there’s Quinn, who has spent the past two years in the s#!t in Syria. His briefing for all the fancy-pants top brass at Langley was classic, pointing out the U.S.’s lack of strategy compared to the 1300-year-old approach of the terrorists. “They call it the end times,” he says. “It's all in the book. Their f#@king book. The only book they ever read.” When asked for a suggestion as to how proceed in the region, Quinn says to “hit reset.” Bomb Raqqa into a parking lot."

http://www.ign.com/articles/2015/10/...anxiety-review

Is it possible that the current ISIS, Arab spring, Syria, Iran, etc. would have occurred no matter what political squabble seen in this part of the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histor...rhood_in_Egypt

History is far older than trying to score political points.

[touchring]

Re: The Empire Strikes Out

In such a rush to once more blame Bush. Can't admit BOTH side's actions left us where we are now. Not surprising coming from the Ostrich party with it's head in middle east sand.

From an outsider point of view, the "Ostrich party" is not as benign as it looks.

There appears to be a lot of uncover stuff going on. From the Arab Spring to Ukraine, to MH17, to Snowden, to using of personal email server. It's apparent that there's a lot to hide, not just from the American people, but even from the Federal government itself as evidenced by the use of "personal email server".

A democracy is no longer a real democracy if the people don't even know what their government is doing.