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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
I prefer the clip where Georgie is dancing with the sheik:
I prefer the clip where Georgie is dancing with the sheik:
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
Reuters summarizes as follows:
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Saturday that if reports of the build-up were accurate, that could further escalate the war and risk confrontation with the U.S.-led alliance that is bombing Islamic State in Syria.
Lavrov told Kerry it was premature to talk about Russia's participation in military operations in Syria, a Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman told RIA Novosti on Monday.
Lavrov confirmed Russia had always provided supplies of military equipment to Syria, saying Moscow "has never concealed that it delivers military equipment to official Syrian authorities with the aim of combating terrorism".
Russia has been a vital ally of President Bashar al-Assad throughout the war that has fractured Syria into a patchwork of areas controlled by rival armed groups, including Islamic State, leaving the government in control of much of the west.
Foreign states are already deeply involved in the war that has killed a quarter of a million people. While Russia and Iran have backed Assad, rebel groups seeking to oust him have received support from governments including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
The Syrian army and allied militia have lost significant amounts of territory to insurgents this year. Assad said in July the Syrian army faced a manpower problem.
Still, the simplest confirmation and the proof that the Syrian intervention was never about ISIS (which from day one was a US creation designed to remove Assad from power), is that Russia has been trying to build a wide coalition including Damascus to fight Islamic State.
But the idea has been rejected by enemies including the United States and Saudi Arabia, who see Assad as part of the problem.
But wait a minute, the only reason Assad is on the verge of losing control is because of ISIS which earlier today was reported to have captured a key Syrian oil field near the city of Palmyra. It appears that only when it comes to affairs involving ISIS, the enemy of America's enemy is double its enemy.
Then again, once one realizes that ISIS was from day one nothing but window dressing for a mythical opponent created in Hollywood, and designed to spook the masses into providing the media cover for what is shaping as an inevitable western intervention in Syria, and that the real enemy was none other than the same Assad who in the summer of 2013 was shown on a fabricated YouTube clip to have gassed his population in another transparent attempt to rally the population around the offensive war flag, then all falls into place.
Meanwhile, what we first reported is quietly but rapidly taking place behind the scenes: Russia is preparing for what appears to be the latest inevitable proxy war: one which will pit Syria (with Russian support, on and off the ground) against ISIS, the "moderate Syrian rebels", and various Turkish forces (with US support, on and off the ground).
From Reuters:Well would you look at that: the US is not the only country that can send military "instructors", "consultants" and "trainers" to a distant country to prepare the locals for war.
A senior U.S. official told Reuters on Saturday that U.S. authorities have detected "worrisome preparatory steps," including transport of prefabricated housing units for hundreds of people to a Syrian airfield, that could signal that Russia is preparing to deploy heavy military assets there.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Moscow's exact intentions remained unclear but that Kerry called Lavrov to leave no doubt about the U.S. position.
A Syrian military official has said Syrian-Russian military relations have witnessed a "big shift" in recent weeks.
A Lebanese newspaper reported on Monday that Russian military experts who arrived in Syria weeks ago have been inspecting air bases and working to enlarge some runways, particularly in the north, though Moscow had yet to meet a Syrian request for attack helicopters.
As-Safir, citing a Syrian source, said there had been "no fundamental change" in Russian forces on the ground in Syria, saying they were "still operating in the framework of experts, advisers, and trainers".
Bottom line: the battle lines are now fully drawn and the only question, just like in the case of the Greek near-default, is who gets the blame: if the western full court media press to represent Syria as colluding with Putin - when in reality Assad's forces were about collapse under relentless US pressure, which with the help of ISIS, meant from day one to remove the Syrian president from power and replace him with a pro-US puppet, one who would allow the passage of the Qatari gas pipeline - succeeds, then the media spin is already prepared. It will mean that the imminent invasion in Syria by US and European powers will be portrayed as another escalation involving Russia, just like in 2013 and 2014.
As-Safir said the Russians had "started moving toward a qualitative initiative in the armament relationship for the first time since the start of the war on Syria, with a team of Russian experts beginning to inspect Syrian military airports weeks ago, and they are working to expand some of their runways, particularly in the north of Syria."
The newspaper, which is well-connected in Damascus, said nothing had been decided about "the nature of the weapons that Damascus might receive, though the Syrians asked to be supplied with more than 20 Russian attack helicopters, of the Mi-28 type".
And yes, we said Europe because as France's president pivoted earlier today, Europe's refuge crisis is about to be portrayed as the responsibility of Assad (but apparently not of the Western powers whose intervention in Syria has led to the country being torn by a bloody civil war), and as a result France is now preparing to bomb Syria to retaliate for a tragic refugee crisis, that has been years in the making not without Washington's, or CIA's, blessing. In other words, just like the fabricated "chemical attack" youtube clips of 2013 were the media pretext to attack Syria, so Europe's great refugee crisis of 2015 will be the catalyst for the second attempt to remove Assad from power.
On the other hand, Russia will deny any involvement in Syria, a la Crimea, even as its troops are positioned deep inside Syrian territory in preparation for what will soon be the latest mid-east proxy war.
None of the above, however, should not detract from the seriousness of the situation: suddenly Syria is months if not weeks or even days away from a repeat of the summer of 2013 which some may have forgotten, but on several occasions the US and Russia were this close from launching another world war.
Which is also why while we appreciate the impact of China's economic hard landing on the price of oil, should the upcoming conflict, which now seems inevitable, spark a metaphorical (or literal) fire in, say, Saudi's Ghawar oil fields - an outcome Putin would be delighted by - then oil may be poised for substantial upside from here.
This is what we said last week:With every day that we get closer to the all-out Syrian war, said squeeze becomes virtually assured.
Finally, while we have no way of knowing how the upcoming armed conflict will progress, now may be a safe time to take profits on that oil short we recommended back in October, as the geopolitical chess game just shifted dramatically, and with most hedge funds aggressively short, any realization that the middle east is suddenly a far more violent powderkeg - one which may promptly include the Saudis in any confrontation - could result in an epic short squeeze.
and in related news . . .
WASHINGTON — In an acknowledgment of severe shortcomings in its effort to create a force of moderate rebels to battle the Islamic State in Syria, the Pentagon is drawing up plans to significantly revamp the program by dropping larger numbers of fighters into safer zones as well as providing better intelligence and improving their combat skills.The proposed changes come after a Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda attacked, in late July, many of the first 54 Syrian graduates of the military’s training program and the rebel unit they came from. A day before the attack, two leaders of the American-backed group and several of its fighters were captured.
The encounter revealed several glaring deficiencies in the program, according to classified assessments: The rebels were ill-prepared for an enemy attack and were sent back into Syria in too small numbers. They had no local support from the population and had poor intelligence about their foes. They returned to Syria during the Eid holiday, and many were allowed to go on leave to visit relatives, some in refugee camps in Turkey — and these movements likely tipped off adversaries to their mission. Others could not return because border crossings were closed.
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
Cut the Russians loose and let them be the "policeman" for the Middle East. Two things I like about that prospect: 1) It'll keep 'em busy for years, and 2) It'll keep the Chinese busy trying to deal with growing Russian influence in one of their largest future oil supply regions; that is something I would pay to watch.Comment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
1. don, you again neglected to provide links or footnotes to indicate the sources of these pieces. i am bothered when people post tendentious writings without attribution. [in this instance, for example, i see the rise of isis as a result of u.s. actions but not an aim of u.s. policy. i would like to know who is asserting otherwise.]
2. "Bottom line: the battle lines are now fully drawn."
Last edited by jk; September 07, 2015, 07:40 PM.
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
Here's an exercise in NIMBY, followed by TINA, you can try on your friends . . .
President Obama announced today that the US would accept 10,000 refugees from Syria. They will be relocated to (town of your choice),
a city of ____ population, in the state of ______.Comment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
Putin might do it.Originally posted by touchring View Post
Would Putin be so stupid as to take over the mess that the Americans had created?
China could get oil from Canada once the pipelines are up.
Syria has been one of Russia's biggest armament customers.
The Assad dynasty owes Russian oligarchs billions right now for past arms deals and they (or their successors) will buy more in the future.
I agree with GRG55 - I hope Russia struggles with that mess in Syria for twenty years.Comment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
Today is again 9/11, 14 years later.Originally posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post
Let's distill the situation down to the most basic dynamics.
The USA, following on from the Brits, has historically aligned itself with the Persian Gulf oil exporters. In the past it made no distinction between the western side of the Persian Gulf and the eastern shore, and Russian influence in the region was limited, almost absent. Following the 1979 Iranian Revolution there was major realignment.
The USA cemented its position as not only the protector of the Middle East sea lanes to export crude, but also the military protector of the oil exporting Arab monarchies and dictatorships in the region - all the while keeping a fine balance with its role to support and protect Israel.
Since the US fissure with Iran, Russia's aim has been to draw Iran into its sphere of influence. The USSR entry into next door Afghanistan in 1979, armament sales to Iran, international and UN Security Council political support, the alignment with the Shia Assad regime in Syria, the indirect (through Iran) supplying of Hezbollah in Lebanon are just a few examples. Perhaps Syria is the new Cuba. ;-) The danger for the Russians is it turns into the new Afghanistan.
Layer on that the belated recognition of where the terrorism the USA fears is sourced, and who is funding it (contrary to popular opinion in America, it is NOT the Persians).
Makes for an interesting time looking forward...Last edited by GRG55; September 11, 2015, 09:59 AM.Comment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
Originally posted by don View Post
This argument would not apply to all your examples, but in the case of the Anglicans, they probably thought themselves involved in a winner take all struggle with a very powerful institution that might strike back at any time. No such excuse can be made for destroying ancient ruins, which are not used by any existing religious or political institution.Comment
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Questions for GRG
1) The US is the military protector of OEAM (oil exporting arab monarchies) from who?Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
2) Where is the terrorism coming from ? (Without much evidence, I tentatively believe that it comes from "Arabia", especially Saudi Arabia and Oman,
Bin Laden himself representing this as a very wealthy and religiously obsessed person)Comment
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Re: Questions for GRG
Originally posted by Polish_Silver View Post
To protect them from the Persians?
If the Middle East goes up in flames, wouldn't Russia benefit tremendously in terms of more arms exports and higher oil prices?
As for China, people could switch to taking trains and buses, no issues. I take public transport all the time whenever I'm in China, it's very cheap and convenient.Comment
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Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...
You don't think the combatants here share a similar outlook?Originally posted by Polish_Silver View Post
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china vs oil
Agreed that Russia would sell arms and oil in that situation. However, I think it would not at all be to China's liking.Originally posted by touchring View Post
China is a major importer of oil, a substance whose use extends far beyond transportation.
A nation can use less or more oil,
but even the "less" is quite a lot.Comment
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Re: china vs oil
Originally posted by Polish_Silver View Post
Why would China be concerned with Russia? China doesn't pose a military threat to the Russians.
Can't China buy oil from anyone else, Brazil, Sudan, Nigeria, or even Canada, if they want to build the pipeline?Comment
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Re: Questions for GRG
Did you mean Yemen?Originally posted by Polish_Silver View Post
To me, Oman represents one of the quieter "success stories", at least in relative terms, for the Sunni part of the region.
if there is one single place I'd like to spend more time in the region if required again(just narrowly avoided a 6 month "sentence" to "Dubai")it's Oman.Comment
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