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  • Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

    Years ago I made the observation on another iTulip thread that real trouble in the Middle East would originate not in Iran or Iraq, but from some other place that was not then on the radar screen. Having spent a lot of time there building a business venture in the country, my view at the time was that Egypt was the front runner at risk of "blowing up". Long before the Saudis and Emiratis became wildly wealthy on oil, Egypt was the wealthiest and most influential country in the Arab world. It had the largest population, the most diversified economy, the most advanced universities, and even today remains the center of the influential Arab film industry. If iTulipers are wondering why I seem so focused on Egypt in the posts on this thread, what happens in Egypt plays a much bigger role in influencing Arab opinion than anything happening in Iraq or Saudi Arabia.


    Egypt protesters torch buildings, try to target Suez Canal


    Sat Mar 9, 2013 10:49am EST

    * First major attempt to disrupt canal traffic fails

    * Fans torch police club, soccer headquarters in Cairo

    * Islamist government struggling to keep law and order

    * Police on alert for jihadist attacks in Sinai

    PORT SAID, Egypt/CAIRO, March 9 (Reuters) - Egyptian protesters torched buildings in Cairo and tried unsuccessfully to disrupt international shipping on the Suez Canal, as a court ruling on a deadly soccer riot stoked rage in a country beset by worsening security.

    The ruling enraged residents of Port Said, at the northern entrance of the Suez Canal, by confirming death sentences imposed on 21 local soccer fans for their role in the riot last year when more than 70 people were killed.

    But the court also angered rival fans in Cairo by acquitting a further 28 defendants that they wanted punished, including seven members of the police force which is reviled across society for its brutality under deposed autocrat Hosni Mubarak...

    ...Saturday's protests and violence underlined how Islamist President Mohamed Mursi is struggling - two years after Mubarak's overthrow - to maintain law and order at a time of economic and political crisis.

    On Thursday Egypt's election committee scrapped a timetable under which voting for the lower house of parliament should have begun next month, following a court ruling that threw the entire polling process into confusion...

    ...In a separate security threat, the Interior Ministry ordered police in the Sinai peninsula to raise their state of emergency after receiving intelligence that jihadists might attack their forces there, MENA reported.

    Officials have expressed growing worries about security in the desert region which borders Israel and is home to a number of tourist resorts. In August last year Islamist militant gunmen killed at least 15 Egyptian policemen in an assault on a police station on the border with Israel, before seizing two military vehicles and attempting to storm the frontier.

    Last Thursday, Bedouin gunmen briefly held the head of U.S. oil major ExxonMobil in Egypt and his wife. The Britons, who had been heading for a Sinai resort, were released unharmed.

    General unrest is rife as the Egypt's poor suffer badly from the economic crisis. Foreign currency reserves have slid to critically low levels and are now little more than a third of what they were in the last days of Mubarak.

    The Egyptian pound has lost 14 percent against the dollar since the 2011 revolution and the budget deficit is soaring to unmanageable levels due to the huge cost of fuel and food subsidies. Egypt agreed a $4.8 billion loan with the International Monetary Fund last November, but Cairo requested a delay due to street violence the following month.

    Analysts say the chances of an IMF deal are slim until the electoral chaos is sorted out, but question how much longer the government can hold out without international funding...

    Comment


    • Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

      Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
      what happens in Egypt plays a much bigger role in influencing Arab opinion than anything happening in Iraq or Saudi Arabia.
      Agreed.......but still worth keeping an eye on what's happening in Saudi.....even if it's largely locked up pretty tight from a western perspective.

      Just found this:

      http://muftah.org/saudi-arabia-on-lo...exWNvk.twitter


      In recent months, however, protests in the central cities of Qassim and Riyadh have become more frequent. In January 2013, a group of 11 women and children were arrested for demonstrating in front of the Board of Grievances in Buraida, a town in Qassim. In February 2013, 50 more women were arrested in Riyadh and Qassim. Finally, in the first week of March, over 170 men, women, and children were arrested in Buraida after organizing a sit-in in front of the Bureau of Investigation and Public Prosecution. A spokesman for the Buraida police reported that one hundred protesters have been released, According to Saudi activists, several female demonstrators remain unaccounted for.
      Sounds quite small, but consistently growing from a very small base.

      With Saudis internal control measures I'd think it highly unlikely for these protest numbers to continue to grow unabated.

      Comment


      • Why Egypt so poor now?

        Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
        Years ago I made the observation on another iTulip thread that real trouble in the Middle East would originate not in Iran or Iraq, but from some other place that was not then on the radar screen. Having spent a lot of time there building a business venture in the country, my view at the time was that Egypt was the front runner at risk of "blowing up". Long before the Saudis and Emiratis became wildly wealthy on oil, Egypt was the wealthiest and most influential country in the Arab world. It had the largest population, the most diversified economy, the most advanced universities, and even today remains the center of the influential Arab film industry. If iTulipers are wondering why I seem so focused on Egypt in the posts on this thread, what happens in Egypt plays a much bigger role in influencing Arab opinion than anything happening in Iraq or Saudi Arabia.

        If you visit Egypt, even within the tourist bubble, the poverty is shocking. I'd like to get your take on why the country is so poor. Huge population and lack of water would seem to be a start. But there's always the question of governance. Population growth and lack of economic development could be attributed to education policy.

        Didn't they have a Marxist oriented government for years?

        Comment


        • Re: Why Egypt so poor now?

          Originally posted by Polish_Silver View Post
          why the country is so poor. Huge population and lack of water would seem to be a start.
          Demographics of Egypt




          RPT-Egypt insists food supply secure as wheat imports dive

          Egypt faces a huge task in feeding its people. Most of its territory is desert, and what little land that can be cultivated by using the waters of the Nile is under heavy pressure from development. With its population of 84 million growing fast, buildings are springing up on agricultural land.
          Nomani, who left his job at GASC saying only that he had been promoted, said measures to boost domestic production were paying off at a time of difficulty for state finances.
          "We have proper planning. We were aware of the conditions the state is going through, and we made a list of factors to rely on for securing our essential supply of wheat, including offering attractive incentives and prices to local farmers," he said.
          Nomani expected local wheat production to increase by "at least 500,000 tonnes in 2012/2013, if not more, raising the amount of local wheat to 4.2 million tonnes".
          This would mark an impressive rise from 2.6 million in 2010/2011, but overall needs are greater.
          Egypt imports about half the 18.8 million tonnes of wheat it consumes a year, with business split roughly evenly between private importers and GASC.
          Justice is the cornerstone of the world

          Comment


          • Re: Why Egypt so poor now?

            Originally posted by Polish_Silver View Post
            If you visit Egypt, even within the tourist bubble, the poverty is shocking. I'd like to get your take on why the country is so poor. Huge population and lack of water would seem to be a start. But there's always the question of governance. Population growth and lack of economic development could be attributed to education policy.

            Didn't they have a Marxist oriented government for years?
            If I recall well, in the fifties of last century they had a nationalistic goverment with Marxist oriented tendency.
            After that Anwar el Sadat left that policy into a neoliberal pro Western one.
            And you see the results.
            Anoter intriguing fact: I also remember that Egypt supplies a lot of natural gas to Israel at heavily subsidized prices.
            That was supposed to change whith the demise of Mubarak.
            AFAK it did not.

            Comment


            • Re: Why Egypt so poor now?

              Originally posted by Southernguy View Post
              If I recall well, in the fifties of last century they had a nationalistic goverment with Marxist oriented tendency.
              After that Anwar el Sadat left that policy into a neoliberal pro Western one.
              And you see the results.
              Anoter intriguing fact: I also remember that Egypt supplies a lot of natural gas to Israel at heavily subsidized prices.
              That was supposed to change whith the demise of Mubarak.
              AFAK it did not.
              Yes it did. The gas exports were stopped after Mubarak was deposed and Mubarak's long time Oil Minister, Sameh Fahmi, is in custody awaiting trial by the new government for "exporting gas to Israel at a price lower than international prices, harming public finances".

              Comment


              • Re: Why Egypt so poor now?

                I remember reading that Egypt has been quite dependent on very steady US financial help, to the tune of 5B$/year? Has this 'help' stopped too?
                EasternBelle

                Comment


                • Re: Why Egypt so poor now?

                  The Muslim Brotherhood has a big following within the poor section of society, because they were the ones who helped the poor with social programes in the last decade. Never mind the ideology if it feeds your schoolchild's hungry belly.
                  EastenBelle

                  Comment


                  • Re: Why Egypt so poor now?

                    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                    Yes it did. The gas exports were stopped after Mubarak was deposed and Mubarak's long time Oil Minister, Sameh Fahmi, is in custody awaiting trial by the new government for "exporting gas to Israel at a price lower than international prices, harming public finances".
                    Thanks for claryfing

                    Comment


                    • Re: Why Egypt so poor now?

                      http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/0...l-fuel-crisis/

                      A paralysed city: The diesel fuel crisis


                      Sarah El Masry / March 13, 2013

                      Though it is not the first time a gas or diesel shortage has plagued Cairo and several other governorates, the recent crisis in Egypt has left the capital city paralysed due to a major strike organised by microbus drivers. It seems these strikes by transport drivers are much larger than they have been in the past. Daily News Egypt investigates the mounting diesel fuel problems in the country, looking at how they are affecting ordinary citizens and what the government is doing in response.

                      The fuel crisis in Egypt has been recurring since the 25 January Revolution: in May and June 2011, March and September 2012, and now in recent months. Diesel supplies have been at their lowest levels yet, impacting huge sectors of the country’s economy.
                      In response, waves of anger have spread across Egypt’s governorates, materialising in Giza on Sunday in the form of a strike organised by microbus drivers, some of the biggest consumers of diesel fuel.

                      On Sunday the Ring Road, the vital circular highway surrounding Greater Cairo, was clogged with standstill traffic because of the strike. This also prevented passengers from commuting throughout the city due to the lack of microbuses on the roads.
                      The crux of the crisis

                      Mao’af Al-Bahr Al-Azam has been one of the primary stations involved in the strike due to its proximity to the Ring Road. It is an archetype microbus station, packed with microbuses, outdated seven-seater cars and taxis and surrounded by tea and coffee stalls and newspaper kiosks.

                      Usually the station is full of commotion; drivers washing their vehicles, waiting for passengers to jump in, occasionally fighting with other drivers over passengers or a parking spot. During the strike it is strange to find the station nearly desolate.

                      A group of drivers are seated next to their parked microbuses sipping tea and chatting. The oldest among them is Hag Mohamed. He goes on daily trips from Giza to Suez and back. He struggled to find diesel fuel the last three days in both governorates. Telling his despairing story attracted drivers around him, prompting them to come closer to listen.

                      ...

                      Comment


                      • Get US out of the ME!

                        Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                        So how do you like this freedom and democracy in the Middle East thing so far?


                        14 September 2012 Last updated at 10:05 GMT

                        US missions braced for protests over anti-Islam film

                        US missions are on high alert across the Muslim world as anger grows over a film made in the US that mocks Islam.


                        This seems to be an excellent argument for minding our own business, ie, not starting wars to spread democracy, not supporting Israel, or any other government in that area, not propping up unpopular dictators, not having half our military in the region, not agreeing to support monarchs in return for the recycling of petro dollars into T-bonds, etc.

                        Comment


                        • Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

                          Two years on in Syria's Civil War and the Syrian economy's GDP cut roughly in half with the same rough halving of its currency.

                          Now rumors are surfacing of 3000 tons of weapons such as anti-tank weapon systems coming from a former Yugoslav nation state involving Saudi, Jordan, UK, US, and a Balkan state with training conducted in Jordan for Free Syria Army rebels.

                          On an unrelated note I don't know what would happen to Dubai if all the Filipinos suddenly went home. I think the place would collapse within an hour.

                          From a retail contact point perspective Dubai looks even more like Manila with every visit.

                          I like talking to the Filipinos here. Suck lovely hardworking and positive people. But the smiles seem to disappear when I ask how they find living in Dubai.

                          Going to meet up with some higher level western indentured servants this afternoon.

                          Comment


                          • Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

                            Originally posted by lakedaemonian View Post
                            I like talking to the Filipinos here. Suck lovely hardworking and positive people. But the smiles seem to disappear when I ask how they find living in Dubai.

                            Going to meet up with some higher level western indentured servants this afternoon.
                            I've never understood how petro states actually work. Are all the natives on welfare, or working cube jobs?

                            What will they do when the oil runs out?

                            And do americans like living over there?

                            One of the cities was planning to launch a micro-electronics research center. Does anybody speak english? And can you get beer?

                            Comment


                            • Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

                              Originally posted by Polish_Silver View Post
                              I've never understood how petro states actually work. Are all the natives on welfare, or working cube jobs?

                              What will they do when the oil runs out?

                              And do americans like living over there?

                              One of the cities was planning to launch a micro-electronics research center. Does anybody speak english? And can you get beer?
                              The basic formula is the same, although each has variations depending on demographics, tribalism dynamics, relative political strength of the Ruling Family or President For Life (they all have one or the other it seems), alignment with the USA as supreme protector, and so forth.

                              The wealth of the nation belongs to the Big Guy and those favoured cronies and merchant families whose support is either required or is appreciated from the past. The "government" is funded with a simple formula...take the national income, deduct what is needed to maintain the top echelon's lifestyle, deduct what is required to be squirreled away in Singapore or London (previously Switzerland) for the "retirement fund", whatever remains is the "national budget" to be sprinkled over those parts of the population that need to be bribed to stay off the streets.

                              If the country has "elections" (e.g. Nigeria) the objective of the outgoing President is to make sure his man succeeds him. Otherwise there is great danger that some rival coming into office will start some sort of corruption investigation...that will never do.

                              As the oil runs out the price goes up, so income is flat to rising for the most part. What me worry?

                              Americans are no different from any other expatriate community. Some love it and never go back home. Some hate it and can't wait to get back (and the rest of us can't wait for them to do so). But most fall somewhere in between...and treat it as an interesting life experience for a period, hopefully at a time when it can be most appreciated.

                              Pretty well everybody speaks some English - it's pretty well the dominant working language in the oil industry world wide (except the former Soviet Union, where they work in Russian) as most of the technology comes out of the USA, Canada, the UK and parts of Europe.

                              "A beer" depends on the country. Right now as I type this it is 3 am and I am sitting in a business partner's villa in the Arabian Gulf enjoying an excellent cognac nightcap. We have a decent wine cellar also, but this is not possible in Saudi Arabia for example :-)

                              Comment


                              • Re: Meanwhile Back in the Sandbox...

                                Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                                If the country has "elections" (e.g. Nigeria) the objective of the outgoing President is to make sure his man succeeds him. Otherwise there is great danger that some rival coming into office will start some sort of corruption investigation...that will never do
                                Nigeria? Funny, I thought I recognized that country from something recently . . . . yes, and here it is - the Nigerian first lady's dress designer!
                                Eh, that is, just one of them. I wonder how the others made out?
                                "Why are you still working?" - a famous quip from a recent post that seems to fit in here as well.

                                A Tale of Two Londons


                                In fact, land-registry documents show that five apartments, for a combined $123 million, are owned by companies under the Rose of Sharon name, all based in the Isle of Man. These have been widely reported to be owned by Folorunsho Alakija, a Nigerian billionaire who is a part-owner of Famfa Oil Ltd. (Efforts to contact her were unsuccessful.) According to an industry risk profile of the company, Famfa received 600,000 barrels of oil per month from the giant Nigerian deepwater Agbami oil field in the first four months of 2010, in partnership with the U.S. oil company Chevron, in a longer-term agreement. The report cites a Nigerian Department for Petroleum Resources source as saying that Alakija was “one of the [Nigerian] First Lady’s favorite dress designers” and that Alakija’s stake in Famfa was “a reward to a loyal friend.” Forbes ranked Alakija’s net worth at $600 million, but last year Ventures Africa, a business magazine, recalculated it based on public information at $3.3 billion, making her richer than Oprah Winfrey.
                                Justice is the cornerstone of the world

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