Tesla Steps Up Production

[don]

The original run on the $109,000 Roadster was 2,500. The Model S is planned for an initial production run of 5,000, increasing to 20,000 by 2013. Pricing is $54,400 to $77,400, depending on battery capacity.

Details should be available online in a few days at SFGate.

[c1ue]

Re: Tesla Steps Up Production

Hey, so Tesla only needs to ramp up 600% in 2013 to attain 1% of the US market.

Some more comparable numbers:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3784523.ece

Bentley sells about 45 per cent of its annual output of 10,000 cars in the US.

http://www.ferrari.com/English/about...nd_Canada.aspx

The USA, which has always been Ferrari’s primary market, and Canada together have posted an increase in sales of nearly 20 per cent compared to the previous year, with over 1750 cars sold.

http://press.porsche.com/more_about/statistics/

1997	13,731 (U.S. 12,986)
1998	18,207 (U.S. 17,239)
1999	21,915 (U.S. 20,889)
2000	23,698 (U.S. 22,412)
2001	24,143 (U.S. 23,047)
2002	22,511 (U.S. 21,320)
2003	30,028 (U.S. 28.417)
2004	33,289 (U.S. 31,473)
2005	33,859 (U.S. 31,933)
2006	36,095 (U.S. 34,227)
2007 *	36,680 (U.S. 34,693)
2008	27,717 (U.S. 26,035)
2009	U.S. 19,696
2010	U.S. 25,320

[GRG55]

Re: Tesla Steps Up Production

The original run on the $109,000 Roadster was 2,500. The Model S is planned for an initial production run of 5,000, increasing to 20,000 by 2013. Pricing is $54,400 to $77,400, depending on battery capacity.

...

I honestly cannot see how any automotive company can support and pay for their infrastructure, G&A, development costs, marketing and regulatory compliance costs selling a few thousand cars a year. There is absolutely no possible way this is a viable business...

[lektrode]

Re: Tesla Steps Up Production

I honestly cannot see how any automotive company can support and pay for their infrastructure, G&A, development costs, marketing and regulatory compliance costs selling a few thousand cars a year. There is absolutely no possible way this is a viable business...

so i guess the(my) 1st question becomes: are they getting fed 'green bux' too?

[shiny!]

Re: Tesla Steps Up Production

The Tesla is cool but too much car for me. I'm holding out for the Arcimoto 3-wheel electric vehicle: http://www.arcimoto.com/

Arcimoto's concept is that 90% of the time, 90% of drivers don't need a large "box" car with seating capacity for five just to run errands or commute to work. Their car is going to use less raw materials, use off-the-shelf non-proprietary parts and hopefully sell for under $20,000, making it a viable alternative to subcompact gasoline-powered cars. It will accept any type of car battery, so as battery technology improves and comes down in price, the car will be able to take advantage of that.

Because it's designed with 3 wheels, it's classified as a motorcycle so Arcimoto doesn't have to deal with all the regulatory compliance issues that cars have; this will help keep the cost down. Still, they're making it safe with a tubular steel frame and racing car roll cage. They're planning to submit it for crash testing even though they don't have to.

These guys are thinking outside the box, and I hope their car sees the light of day sometime soon.

[GRG55]

Re: Tesla Steps Up Production

I honestly cannot see how any automotive company can support and pay for their infrastructure, G&A, development costs, marketing and regulatory compliance costs selling a few thousand cars a year. There is absolutely no possible way this is a viable business...

so i guess the(my) 1st question becomes: are they getting fed 'green bux' too?

The economic reality of vehicle manufacturing rears it ugly head again.

US government subsidies, a Chinese partner, celebrity owners...what could possibly go wrong...

Fisker Woes Grow on Staff Furloughs, Dongfeng’s Retreat

Mar 28, 2013 10:01 PM MT

Fisker Automotive Inc., a maker of luxury plug-in cars that’s seeking investors to fund operations, lost a potential automotive partner and furloughed employees for a week to save cash. Fisker also retained restructuring lawyers, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Dongfeng Motor Group Co. (489), a Chinese carmaker that had considered buying a stake in Anaheim, California-based Fisker, said yesterday those discussions are over. Fisker has repeatedly declined to identify specific companies it’s talking to.

Xu Ping, Dongfeng’s chairman, told reporters in Hong Kong that acquisition talks ended as there was “some distance” between Fisker’s future development and the Wuhan, China-based automaker’s plans. Dongfeng had offered $350 million for majority control of Fisker, people with knowledge of the matter said last month. Neither company confirmed that bid.

Fisker has struggled since halting assembly of rechargeable Karma sedans last year when the supplier of the $103,000 car’s lithium-ion batteries, A123 Systems Inc. (AONEQ), filed for bankruptcy. Henrik Fisker, the auto designer who co-founded the company, quit this month over unspecified disagreements with other executives.

The closely held carmaker retained restructuring lawyers from Kirkland & Ellis LLP, said a person familiar with the matter who declined to be identified because the move isn’t public. The law firm’s corporate bankruptcy and restructuring practice is one of the biggest in the U.S...

... Fisker Automotive, with celebrity customers including singer Justin Bieber and actor Leonardo DiCaprio, has sold about 2,500 Karmas in the past two years. It has raised more than $1 billion from private sources, including Silicon Valley investor Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and was awarded $529 million in low-interest federal loans in 2009 to develop and build its plug-in hybrid cars...

... Fisker’s Karma goes as far as 40 miles (64 kilometers) on electricity before a gasoline engine kicks in. The company’s U.S. loans came from the Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing program created under President George W. Bush to help automakers build more fuel-efficient cars and trucks.

Loans were awarded in 2009 to Ford Motor Co. (F), Nissan Motor Co. (7201), Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) and Fisker for the companies make battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, part of an initiative by President Barack Obama to get a million rechargeable autos on U.S. roads by 2015...

Seems the only thing missing is a 999,998 more millionaire movie stars and singers to hit that target...

[don]

Re: Tesla Steps Up Production

Another blow to the United States of Subsidies

[GRG55]

Re: Tesla Steps Up Production

Another blow to the United States of Subsidies

don: I want to do the ownership cost adverts for those honkin' big Escalade EXT's you're going to flog. Just imagine how much the real cost of ownership is lowered because you can bypass traffic jams running down the median in 4WD

Even more time (and money) can be saved each day by finding the nearest Tesla to the office and parking on top of it...



Creative Auto Finance 101; Class lecture by Professor Elon Musk:

Tesla Drops as Analysts Question Financing Offer

Apr 3, 2013 2:18 PM MT


Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA), the maker of electric cars led by billionaire Elon Musk, declined the most in more than a month after analysts questioned whether a new lease- style financing offer will boost demand for the company’s Model S...

...The Model S financing deal, offered by Wells Fargo & Co (WFC). and U.S. Bancorp (STL), provides qualified customers with 10 percent of the purchase price and guarantees a minimum resale value after three years, Palo Alto, California-based Tesla said yesterday. The company “liberally employs” assumptions to arrive at its estimate that monthly payments under the offer are as low as $500, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM). said today in a report...

...The carmaker assumes prospective customers are “living in the states with the most subsidies and qualifying for business tax deduction,” among other assumptions, wrote Brinkman, who has a neutral rating on Tesla. The company’s monthly payment offer is “substantially closer to that of a conventional loan” than the “teaser” rate given by the company, he said...

...The program makes the Model S, which has a base price of $69,900 before the federal tax credit, “affordable to a much broader audience than people think is usually the case,” Musk said on a conference call yesterday. High-end versions of the car sell for more than $100,000, including a larger battery pack.

“We do not think the new financing arrangement lived up to the hype -- and related stock move -- heading into the announcement,” Ben Schuman, a Pacific Crest Securities analyst, wrote today in a report...

...“Although Tesla characterized the financing program as ‘revolutionary,’ it is similar to a car loan with a buyback option,” Elaine Kwei, an analyst at Jefferies Group, wrote today in a report...

...The carmaker’s estimate that the “true net out of pocket cost” for a mid-range Model S would drop to less than $500 per month counted savings relative to owning a gasoline vehicle and assigned monetary value to time saved by a solo driver taking advantage of carpool lanes, among other considerations.

“Just factoring in stuff that’s true out of pocket, you can buy the 60-kilowatt Model S for $400 or $500 a month, net cash out of pocket,” Musk said in a telephone interview. “I consider gasoline to be a tangible cost.”

The amount excluding those items is at least twice as much, Tesla’s website shows. Excluding savings on fuel, a business tax benefit cited by the company and time, a customer using the program has a monthly payment of $1,051 for the Model S with a 60-kilowatt-hour battery pack, using a cost-calculator on Tesla’s website. That rises to $1,199 for an 85-kilowatt hour version or $1,421 for the 85-kilowatt-hour performance car...

...Tesla’s $500 payment estimate was described as “dubiously calculated” by Mashable.com and “bizarre” by Wired.com.

“I’m really sensitive to the idea that we are somehow misrepresenting the true cost of the car,” Musk said in the interview. “I really don’t think we are.”...

[Polish_Silver]

Somebody gets it right!

The Tesla is cool but too much car for me. I'm holding out for the Arcimoto 3-wheel electric vehicle: http://www.arcimoto.com/

Arcimoto's concept is that 90% of the time, 90% of drivers don't need a large "box" car with seating capacity for five just to run errands or commute to work. Their car is going to use less raw materials, use off-the-shelf non-proprietary parts and hopefully sell for under $20,000, making it a viable alternative to subcompact gasoline-powered cars. It will accept any type of car battery, so as battery technology improves and comes down in price, the car will be able to take advantage of that.

Because it's designed with 3 wheels, it's classified as a motorcycle so Arcimoto doesn't have to deal with all the regulatory compliance issues that cars have; this will help keep the cost down. Still, they're making it safe with a tubular steel frame and racing car roll cage. They're planning to submit it for crash testing even though they don't have to.

These guys are thinking outside the box, and I hope their car sees the light of day sometime soon.

I think that is the approach that will make electric vehicles mainstream.

I do worry about the 3 wheel approach, though. I have heard the 3 wheelers are more likely to roll over
than 2 or 4 wheel vehicles. 2 wheelers can tilt to stabilize in turns.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Tesla Steps Up Production

I honestly cannot see how any automotive company can support and pay for their infrastructure, G&A, development costs, marketing and regulatory compliance costs selling a few thousand cars a year. There is absolutely no possible way this is a viable business...

Definitely the right question to ask, but I would like to see the numbers on these costs. The big three haven't been very profitable for decades, although they sell millions per year. The margins are just too low. Tesla is going for smaller volume, higher margin. They bought an old toyota factory for a few percent of the rebuild cost.

[shiny!]

Re: Somebody gets it right!

I think that is the approach that will make electric vehicles mainstream.

I do worry about the 3 wheel approach, though. I have heard the 3 wheelers are more likely to roll over
than 2 or 4 wheel vehicles. 2 wheelers can tilt to stabilize in turns.

The Daily Planet did a feature story on the Arcimoto electric vehicle, including an interview with the developer about their view of the future of transportation. It starts about 1 minute 40 seconds in:

http://watch.discoverychannel.ca/dai...12/#clip814414

[Prazak]

Re: Somebody gets it right!

The Daily Planet did a feature story on the Arcimoto electric vehicle, including an interview with the developer about their view of the future of transportation. It starts about 1 minute 40 seconds in:

http://watch.discoverychannel.ca/dai...12/#clip814414

Very cool. Thanks for sharing. I now have a new electric car to keep an eye on. For those of us who also haul family and stuff and drive long distances, check out Volvo's new diesel-plug in hybrid station wagon, available in Europe but not yet in the U.S.: http://www.volvocars.com/intl/campai...in-hybrid.aspx

[charliebrown]

Re: Tesla Steps Up Production

the tesla is too much car for me too. If i had a lot of money and was a green guy, I would get the volt. I could drive it on electricity most of the time around town and commute to work.
However unlike the tesla, the volt would still be viable for a long trip using heat or a/c.

The bottom line for me is total cost of ownership. at $36,000 i could never recap the additional cost in gas savings. Also I drive my cars into the ground. What is the repair costs
of the volt after 10,12,14 years? Cheap as my ford focus?

[shiny!]

Re: Somebody gets it right!

Very cool. Thanks for sharing. I now have a new electric car to keep an eye on. For those of us who also haul family and stuff and drive long distances, check out Volvo's new diesel-plug in hybrid station wagon, available in Europe but not yet in the U.S.: http://www.volvocars.com/intl/campai...in-hybrid.aspx

I hope Arcimoto succeeds. They're developing their vehicle the old-fashioned way, without any taxpayer investment. $17,000 for a car is quite reasonable, IMO.

[GRG55]

Re: Tesla Steps Up Production

Definitely the right question to ask, but I would like to see the numbers on these costs. The big three haven't been very profitable for decades, although they sell millions per year. The margins are just too low. Tesla is going for smaller volume, higher margin. They bought an old toyota factory for a few percent of the rebuild cost.

LOL. I didn't realize that Tesla was using the old General Motors Fremont plant until this post. I visited that plant in 1977 as part of an engineering field trip to the San Fran/Oakland/Palo Alto area. That was before Toyota got involved. One of the workers showed a couple of us how to suspend a wheel nut on a pendulum wire inside the cavity between the inner and outer panels above the rear wheel well. Every time the car went around a corner it would produce a faint thunk. Of course it was impossible to find the source once the panels were welded together. When we asked if he thought that might effect sales of the cars he said he didn't care, he was UAW. GM shuttered that plant a few years later. I understand that when they restarted it in the NUMMI JV with Toyota that they were able to sort that out...but what a legacy. I think Tesla got a government grant if they moved into the unused 50 year old building...