Tesla Steps Up Production

[GRG55]

Re: Back to the future...

By 40+ latitude standards we don't have harsh winters in Santa Fe but we do have the odd zero degree day when my Volt runs, but only on gasoline because the batteries are too cold to use. As I told the sales person at my local Chevy dealership when he was trying to sell the extended warranty, this isn't a car it's a science experiment. I love it but I don't want to own it for more than three years. The 2016 models should be much better if GM can afford to keep investing in this idea. As you said, it's a multi decade transition but it seems achievable.

Makes sense if you can afford it. It is sort of like the PC dilemma used to be...if one waits to upgrade one can buy much more capability for the same price the following year.

I notice that you sometime express despair over the pace of change to respond to the climate issue. One thing I have learned in my life is that attempts to drive change at a pace faster than people are willing or capable of accepting is almost certainly doomed to failure. One other thing I have noticed is that people in the USA can be extraordinarily conservative and resistant to change, but once they make their minds to undertake something there's no holding them back. Americans don't suffer from the baggage of wallowing in history and tradition once that "light switch" moment arrives. :-)

I think GM is going to be one of the leaders...but it is generally younger people that embrace change so they really need to target the emotional impact of the styling of the cars to those various younger age and income segments...because they are never going to move Grandpa out of his Malibu and into a Volt.

[santafe2]

Re: Back to the future...

Makes sense if you can afford it. It is sort of like the PC dilemma used to be...if one waits to upgrade one can buy much more capability for the same price the following year.

I notice that you sometime express despair over the pace of change to respond to the climate issue. One thing I have learned in my life is that attempts to drive change at a pace faster than people are willing or capable of accepting is almost certainly doomed to failure. One other thing I have noticed is that people in the USA can be extraordinarily conservative and resistant to change, but once they make their minds to undertake something there's no holding them back. Americans don't suffer from the baggage of wallowing in history and tradition once that "light switch" moment arrives. :-)

I think GM is going to be one of the leaders...but it is generally younger people that embrace change so they really need to target the emotional impact of the styling of the cars to those various younger age and income segments...because they are never going to move Grandpa out of his Malibu and into a Volt.

I do despair because everyone in the world knows we're idiots until we decide not to be idiots. We're an anchor until we lead. Winston Churchill said, "Americans will always do the right thing after exhausting all the alternatives". Well, we're very busy exhausting all the alternatives with regard to energy. I hope that ends soon. My Volt is not making any huge change in the world but maybe someone's kid will not get deployed to the Middle East and some little village in the Middle East will be spared if a few of us power our cars on solar energy.

[Polish_Silver]

weather vs batteries

Reading up on the Spark EV. I should know better than to check iTulip on the way to bed...

I think there are millions of people living in moderate climates that could do well with an electric car as the family's 2nd vehicle, or even sole vehicle. For the rare long hauls, just rent a gas car.

If you can park the car in a heated garage, isn't the air temperature irrelevant to the battery?

[GRG55]

Re: weather vs batteries

...If you can park the car in a heated garage, isn't the air temperature irrelevant to the battery?

The problem I see with winter weather in the northern hemisphere, as I have posted a number of times, is that the electricity demand increases from the accessories. The winter days are short so one is driving to and from work with headlights on, inclement weather and road slush means using the electric windshield wipers, and the windscreen defroster and cabin heater are running. I can't imagine an all electric car going very far with all that juice being sapped away from the battery pack. Lower the temp so the battery pack capacity is reduced just compounds the problem. The hybrids like the Volt and Prius seem a better solution, especially for the heat source requirements.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: weather vs batteries

The problem I see with winter weather in the northern hemisphere, as I have posted a number of times, is that the electricity demand increases from the accessories. The winter days are short so one is driving to and from work with headlights on, inclement weather and road slush means using the electric windshield wipers, and the windscreen defroster and cabin heater are running. I can't imagine an all electric car going very far with all that juice being sapped away from the battery pack. Lower the temp so the battery pack capacity is reduced just compounds the problem. The hybrids like the Volt and Prius seem a better solution, especially for the heat source requirements.

I forgot about the cabin heating. I was only thinking about the cold battery, not the cold passengers. Passengers could wear coats, I guess, but when it's -40C outside I'm not sure that's adequate.

[santafe2]

Re: weather vs batteries

This assessment of Tesla from Longboard is likely a bit to happy but it's interesting.

http://www.slideshare.net/sa/de5ddc3...ail_rt_mc_body

[EJ]

Re: weather vs batteries

The problem I see with winter weather in the northern hemisphere, as I have posted a number of times, is that the electricity demand increases from the accessories. The winter days are short so one is driving to and from work with headlights on, inclement weather and road slush means using the electric windshield wipers, and the windscreen defroster and cabin heater are running. I can't imagine an all electric car going very far with all that juice being sapped away from the battery pack. Lower the temp so the battery pack capacity is reduced just compounds the problem. The hybrids like the Volt and Prius seem a better solution, especially for the heat source requirements.

In my book I questioned the applicability of pure electrics in very hot or cold climates for this reason. An auto, a roving greenhouse, uses as much energy for passenger compartment cooling as the AC in a large, well insulated home. In winter, heating a car by battery entails shorting out said batteries. The old electrics of yore, the ones from the the turn of the century that were supposed to beat out ICE cars, had separate kerosine heaters for this reason. Teslas will always be more popular in CA than in New England or Florida where cold or heat reduce range unpredictably.

I'll stand by my forecast that diesel hybrids will dominate within 10 years as they are the best of all worlds: high energy density, long range, low cost of operation, and the heat for the heater is a biproduct of running the engine.

Pure electrics will win on two wheels before four for many advantages over ICE bikes: no oil to leak or change, no valves to adjust, no spark plugs to replace, no gears to fuss with, no warmup, no exhaust to fill the garage at idle, no idle to waste fuel, no hot engine to bake you in summer at intersections, no noise to wake the neighbors. Get on and ride. Range 147 miles on a charge, top speed 95 MPH. Recharge 95% in 1 hr at a station.

[vinoveri]

Re: weather vs batteries

Pure electrics will win on two wheels before four for many advantages over ICE bikes: no oil to leak or change, no valves to adjust, no spark plugs to replace, no gears to fuss with, no warmup, no exhaust to fill the garage at idle, no idle to waste fuel, no hot engine to bake you in summer at intersections, no noise to wake the neighbors. Get on and ride. Range 147 miles on a charge, top speed 95 MPH. Recharge 95% in 1 hr at a station.

I'm sold. Where can I get one?

[anayder]

Re: weather vs batteries

I think EJ is talking about http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/

[EJ]

Re: weather vs batteries

I think EJ is talking about http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/

I've been watching this company since 2008. A classic early adopter, I bought the 2011 and then the 2012, taking a massive depreciation hit due to rapid technology appreciation. I met the CEO Richard Walker in Boston when he was here to visit his son after many email exchanges. He is an unusually good great choice of leadership by a very sophisticated private equity firm. If this company goes public we will invest in it. If it is sold to BMW or other ICE maker I will rue the day.

Watch the videos. They are strangely quite moving. (FYI, I and I am sure others suggested customer videos two years ago as a way to promote the product.)

[BadJuju]

Re: weather vs batteries

I would like one, but they are a little too costly for me. I'll have to stick with putting an electric motor on a bicycle!

[mikedev10]

Re: weather vs batteries

In my book I questioned the applicability of pure electrics in very hot or cold climates for this reason. An auto, a roving greenhouse, uses as much energy for passenger compartment cooling as the AC in a large, well insulated home. In winter, heating a car by battery entails shorting out said batteries. The old electrics of yore, the ones from the the turn of the century that were supposed to beat out ICE cars, had separate kerosine heaters for this reason. Teslas will always be more popular in CA than in New England or Florida where cold or heat reduce range unpredictably.

I'll stand by my forecast that diesel hybrids will dominate within 10 years as they are the best of all worlds: high energy density, long range, low cost of operation, and the heat for the heater is a biproduct of running the engine.

Pure electrics will win on two wheels before four for many advantages over ICE bikes: no oil to leak or change, no valves to adjust, no spark plugs to replace, no gears to fuss with, no warmup, no exhaust to fill the garage at idle, no idle to waste fuel, no hot engine to bake you in summer at intersections, no noise to wake the neighbors. Get on and ride. Range 147 miles on a charge, top speed 95 MPH. Recharge 95% in 1 hr at a station.

kerosene in 2010:

https://www.recyclebank.com/live-gre...ut-in-the-cold

In his research, Harold determined that the most efficient way to heat an electric car is to install a hydronic kerosene heater. While it uses a small amount of fossil fuel, heating an electric car with kerosene is actually more efficient than using the battery (for now, at least).

[GRG55]

Re: weather vs batteries

kerosene in 2010:

https://www.recyclebank.com/live-gre...ut-in-the-cold

My first car, a well-worn air-cooled '60s vintage VW Beetle, had a gasoline fueled auxiliary heater to cope with Canadian winters. It didn't seem to use much fuel...but that might be because it wouldn't stay lit, forcing me to scrape ice off the inside of the windshield from my breath while driving to classes...

I imagine these things are much more reliable now, and seems like a good solution for an EV.

[santafe2]

Re: weather vs batteries

My first car, a well-worn air-cooled '60s vintage VW Beetle, had a gasoline fueled auxiliary heater to cope with Canadian winters. It didn't seem to use much fuel...but that might be because it wouldn't stay lit, forcing me to scrape ice off the inside of the windshield from my breath while driving to classes...

I've had a 62 Porsche for a long time...I only drive it on the weekends in summer now but it has the exact same issue. It's impossible to drive in cold weather without someone constantly wiping the fog from the windshield.

[GRG55]

Re: weather vs batteries

I've had a 62 Porsche for a long time...I only drive it on the weekends in summer now but it has the exact same issue. It's impossible to drive in cold weather without someone constantly wiping the fog from the windshield.

My airplane, which also has air-cooled engines, has a fancier version of that VW auxiliary heater to heat the cabin (even in summer it gets bloody cold in there above 10,000 ft). This thing is ridiculously expensive, has a ceramic combustion tube and all manner of safety devices to make sure you don't turn the airplane into a flaming lump of airborne aluminum. It doesn't work any better than the heater in my VW...have to keep relighting it so the cabin goes from frosty to overcooked and back again repeatedly through the trip.



It would seem both of us are well experienced to handle an EV car in a cold climate...