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  • #1

    Chavez has cancer

    Chavez says he has cancer

    The country is falling apart (drugs, crime, prison riots, corruption), and the regime lies constantly to keep face in spite of broken promises, corruption, drug ties, and near bankruptcy. Hugo even said that even if he loses the elections in the 2012 elections, he will not leave power.

    President Obama is wisely just watching the regime implode.

    How does this play out? What is the impact on oil and global economics?
    Last edited by FondoFinder; July 02, 2011, 02:02 PM. Reason: Change play out link to non subscriber site.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Chavez has cancer

    Seems the opposition is smart enough to play the implosion theory. He has likely dropped big time in the polls due to more obvious lying, and incapacity due to cancer.

    Now the US and China have another reason to keep oil prices down. Not only to save their economy, but to facilitate Hugo's regime implosion.

    Hugo will help as he keeps on pumping oil to support his regime and pay his debts, dampening prices, but won't invest in infrastructure, setting up a shortage.

    Will there be a military junta? If so, oil prices would spike, (regardless if Hugo escapes to Cuba) which neither the US or China want. Given China has lent money to Chavez, they want the oil to keep coming to pay the debt.

    Will there be a populist revolt? If so oil prices will spike (ditto re. US and China interests) . Little hope Max Keiser will go there to fire up a revolution. He wouldn't dare. But would he jump On The Edge? Does anyone know if he has already?

    If Hugo is assassinated, oil spikes only temporarily, but the Bolivarian regime continues, which the US also doesn't want.

    Once these despots have power its a tiny challenge, and quite messy to get rid of them. Or is it?

    Notice the lack of mainstream media attention to this issue. Implode, then either lose the election in 2012 and stay in power regardless, or win the election fraudulently, then either way, explode.

    FYI here is a commentary on Bloomberg today.
    Last edited by FondoFinder; July 04, 2011, 08:37 AM. Reason: regardless if Hugo escapes to Cuba

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    • #3
      Re: Chavez has cancer

      Originally posted by FondoFinder
      Now the US and China have another reason to keep oil prices down. Not only to save their economy, but to facilitate Hugo's regime implosion.
      Why exactly does China care a fig about Chavez?

      And how exactly is $95 oil "low"?

      As for Chavez himself - he is hardly a saint or stateman. But then again, compared to his Central and South American cohorts...

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      • #4
        Re: Chavez has cancer

        " Since 2008 China has lent Venezuela $12 billion and is being repaid in oil shipments"

        If I read this correctly, the Venezuelan government gets 5% less of a fee if oil prices stay can below $100. A worthy goal for those wishing the regimes demise and expansion of their own economy.

        Chavez is not so much comparable to other Central and South American left-ish leaders as he is to some more infamous characters I dare not mention. He stands out like a sore thumb, nationalizing/stealing way more, with daily rants on TV, and embracing all the enemies of the US as friends (classic my enemy's enemy is my friend mentality). The damage to his county is far worse than others. Read the articles in my first post to get a sense of the extent of the issues in Venezuela.

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        • #5
          Re: Chavez has cancer

          According to the article you linked to:

          Currently the Ven gov get 87.5% when Ven realized oil price exceeds $70/bbl, and 95% when the price exceeds $100/bbl. Under new windfall tax, Ven gov gets 90% when oil price >$70/bbl and <$90/bbl, 95% when oil price >$90/bbl and <$100/bbl and 97.5% when its oil price >$100.
          The difference between $90/bbl and $99/bbl is 5%, but the difference between $95/bbl and $100/bbl is 2.5%.

          However, this misses the entire point. If oil is $95/bbl - Venezuela's government gets $90.25 of it; if oil is $100/bbl - Venezuela's government gets $97.5 of it.

          The difference is significant, but not as significant as the $90 handle.

          As for enemy's enemy - Castro did it for decades in Cuba.

          How would you compare/contrast Castro/Cuba with say, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Suriname, etc etc?

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          • #6
            Re: Chavez has cancer

            Wow, now Venezuela. Has there ever been a time in modern history when more oil producing regions were in political turmoil? I'm only surprised oil is not higher. If risk is really a factor in oil prices then in my opinion, it's under priced right now.


            As for Chavez himself - he is hardly a saint or stateman. But then again, compared to his Central and South American cohorts...
            About the way I feel also. Chavez is neither as bad nor as great as some people claim. I'm still not sure if he is sincere or not in his attempts to "help" his people. But for sure, he is misguided. I guess it depends who you ask.

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            • #7
              Re: Chavez has cancer

              Originally posted by c1ue View Post
              According to the article you linked to:
              The difference between $90/bbl and $99/bbl is 5%, but the difference between $95/bbl and $100/bbl is 2.5%.
              My mistake, thanks. Good thing I am not the one fixing the oil price


              Originally posted by c1ue View Post
              As for Chavez himself - he is hardly a saint or stateman. But then again, compared to his Central and South American cohorts...
              Here are one and two and three good blogs from people on the ground in Venezuela.

              There are some people who still like Ghadaffi as well (or is it really fear of their life line being cut when he is gone?).

              Originally posted by c1ue View Post
              How would you compare/contrast Castro/Cuba with say, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Suriname, etc etc?
              I am no expert in Central American politics, so feel free to debate, but my observations include:

              Cuba is a communist state, and having been there a number of times, I can say the people I have met want their freedom, and perhaps a little more for all their hard work.

              Columbia is more center-left and democratic, albeit with a strong, yet illegal drug trade, like Mexico.

              The others have little economic output and are democratic republics. At least the president is gone every few years.

              If "Revolution" just meant better labor laws/enforcement, some land ownership limits, good infrastructure, education, medicine, and social safety nets, some of those countries, and the people within them could be much better off.
              Last edited by FondoFinder; July 05, 2011, 06:53 AM. Reason: add 3rd blog link

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              • #8
                Re: Chavez has cancer

                CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — President Hugo Chavez made a surprise (who knew? wasn't he gonna 'rule' Venezuela by remote control) return to Venezuela from Cuba before dawn (had to sneak in, obviously, under cover of darkness) Monday, saying he is feeling better as he recovers from surgery that removed a cancerous tumor.

                State television showed the video of Chavez arriving about 2 a.m. local time (2:30 EDT; 0630 GMT). The station didn't air the video (more Chavez controlled media) until a little after five hours later (who watches morning television at 7AM).

                Chavez said he spent "very difficult days" in Cuba but that his recovery is going well. (isn't this a loose translation of what Chavez said. Why the quotes around just this paraphrase?)

                (congrats to the AP for bringing us such a transparent example of the manipulation of the newz)
                Last edited by don; July 04, 2011, 09:24 AM.

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                • #9
                  Re: Chavez has cancer

                  Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                  Wow, now Venezuela. Has there ever been a time in modern history when more oil producing regions were in political turmoil? I'm only surprised oil is not higher. If risk is really a factor in oil prices then in my opinion, it's under priced right now......
                  or could all this be the only reason its not $50 (other than what the bernank is doing...)?

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