FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

[EJ]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

But, But, the denialists said that solar would never be competitive! $1 a watt is absolutely amazing! I wonder where the denialists will move the goal posts now.

And as far as wind:





Every major car company in the world is offering Hybrid or outright electric vehicles, the price of PV's are dropping like a rock, and battery technology improvements are progressing on several fronts. As the denialists continue, and will continue, to deny, the market place is seeing the future. The ALT-E/conservation market boom is really just beginning. The transition will be bumpy, and very painful for some, but inevitable.

I recently bought a Zero S 100% electric motorcycle and put 900 miles on it so far.

For my purposes it exceeded my expectations. I ride it to run errands and attend meetings if the full trip is less than 50 miles. It takes 2 hours to fully charge and I can top it off like a laptop at many locations so I've never come close to running out of juice.

The main reason it works so well is that the bike is light and so am I. Otherwise, the range will be much lower and the usefulness more limited. For cars, necessarily heavy, the amount of raw materials needed to create a car with any reasonable range and recharge time is cost-prohibitive.

My motorcycle costs about two and a half times the equivalent 250CC gasoline motorcycle. It only costs 49 cents per charge. Gasoline costs about $10 to go as far on a 250CC gas bike. The price difference doesn't pay off until you ride 25,000 miles. But then you need a new $4,500 replacement battery, so you never break even.

Bottom line, an electric vehicle (EV) will not save you money until gasoline gets much, much more expensive.

The gating factor for the use of batteries for 100% EVs is that there is simply not enough raw material to make much of a dent in the auto market. This article does the math.

The chart below uses the article's conclusion to forecast a maximum EV replacement rate in the US market, ignoring costs, user rejection issues related to the less convenient usage model, and other inhibitors to adoption.

If 100,000 tons of Lithium Carbonate (LCE) is mined globally every year, four times as much as was mined in 2010, and all of it goes into making LiIon batteries for cars, 3 million cars per year can be produced, or a quarter of the 12 million new autos that are sold in the US annually.

If all 3 million EVs were sold into the US market, and the total number of cars does not increase, it will take until 2030 to replace 24% of the current fleet of gasoline and diesel cars and until 2050 to replace all of them.

At a production rate of 100,000 tons per year, the world has a 100 year supply. If the production rate rises to produce enough LCE to make enough EVs to replace half the US fleet in ten years, or 100% of the current 12 million units purchased annually, 400,000 tones of LCE will be needed annually, or 16 times current production. At that rate the total worldwide LCE reserves will be completely used up in 24 years.

This is why in my book I conclude that EVs are not be the wave of the future. Diesel hybrids are. They will get 100MPG plus and can be used the way pure fossil fuel cars are used, without planning, and the batteries need be only a quarter or less the size of EV batteries.

I drive a diesel BMW 335D. It's by far the best car I've ever owned. It actually gets 36MPG as advertised, and it's as fast as my old M3. I'll buy a diesel hybrid when one becomes available. I hope that it, like my motorcycle, will be made in USA.

[BK]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

I am the owner of a hybrid Nissan Altima - what is the heat source for these Electric Cars? The Hybrid performance drops dramatically in the Winter time due to the need to warm the Passenger compartment and I'd have to imagine the battery does not perform as efficiently in the December and January.

I'd love to see a great all electric car - but, it seems like the Electric Car has some significant obstacles in the way.

[lektrode]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

Anybody have the patience to watch the video and comment on the substance?
...
Regarding EJ's conception of PPP, are these projects in the same spirit?

Please stick to the topic I introduced, instead of ranting about general ideas, history, and talking points we're all familiar with already.

hey - whats a blog good for, if ya can rant-rave on it once in awhile???
;)

that IS the benefit of the wild-wild-web, in general, IMHO - we _dont_ have to 'just sit back and watch the movie' quietly anymore, while the bullhorn tells us what and how to think....

but yes, i would agree that this is an excellent example of EJ's thesis of what is necessary for The US (and the rest of the world) to prosper going forward.

first off, i consider myself an 'environmentalist' and back the development of solar, wind, biomass/biochem/algae-to-oil technologies, as i simply refuse to believe these options arent viable - even IF they will require massive amounts of gov subsidy - has _any_ major endeavor in The US _not_ been the recipient of fed subsidy somewhere along the line?

the benefits of these subsidies (give-aways) and whom they flow directly to gets to be another topic that the media spend far too little effort focusing on, unless of course its the oil, nuclear and defense establishment - but again thats a function of the hijacking of the 'discussion' by the very vocal minority in The US (even if they tend to be the smarter ones, its their philosophy of how/where the .gov intersects/interferes/intervenes in the marketplace of life that bothers me)

anyway...

the comments of MIT's don sodoway re storage (batteries) and pricepoint to the consumer (vs the nasa pricepoint) is The Most Important part of the discussion, without a doubt

and 1366 technologies concepts seem quite promising

one thing is certain: even IF the best R&D brains in Boston (and The US for that matter) can come up with the answers to these questions, WE WILL STILL REQUIRE A NEW GENERATION OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS if we eill ever have any hope whatsoever of freeing US from the tyranny and ignorance that bedevils us in the middle east - never mind the rapidly approaching all-out competition from the up-and-coming developing world for the dwindling natural resources of the rapidly shrinking planet we call home.

the luddite brigade in The US has hamstrung us for generations and its time they either LEAD FOLLOW OR GET THE HELL OUT OF THE WAY, because TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ON ALL FRONTS, including nuclear, is The Only Hope that we, in The US in particular, have going forward.

going backward and 'conservation' and green-marketing BS is NOT the answer.

[lektrode]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

....
This is why in my book I conclude that EVs are not be the wave of the future. Diesel hybrids are. They will get 100MPG plus and can be used the way pure fossil fuel cars are used, without planning, and the batteries need be only a quarter or less the size of EV batteries.

would you agree (in concept) then that chevy's volt has the best potential?
this strikes me as the most viable, as it seems to be the best combo of both electric and liquid fuel technologies

I drive a diesel BMW 335D. It's by far the best car I've ever owned. It actually gets 36MPG as advertised, and it's as fast as my old M3. I'll buy a diesel hybrid when one becomes available.

having owned several diesels myself (peugeots and veedubs, that i got perty good at tearing down and rebuilding, out of necessity ;), tho not recently, due to the ridiculous markup over gasoline - when i last had a rabbit diesel, the fuel was 10-20% LESS than gasoline and made economic sense - so, yes, i concur - at some point i will buy another diesel.

I hope that it, like my motorcycle, will be made in USA.

and i do hope that you are right, as i flatly refuse to buy a 'foreign-made' car any more (even if half of em are somewhat produced in The US, the profits leave the country) = how many more millions of manufacturing jobs (the ultimate creator of the 'middle class') will we have to lose before something changes?

[lektrode]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

just re-read this one (i really like this whole thread/discussion, if that wasnt already obvious... ;)

I am the owner of a hybrid Nissan Altima - what is the heat source for these Electric Cars?

dunno much of anything about these, but...

ADDING: and i guess i didnt fully comprehend the question above, guess i mustave been seeing 'heat source for hybrids'
what led me to offer:

couldnt you just override the control of the propulsion system to force it into combustion mode so to get heat the old fashioned way on the particulaly cold days?

so, now that eye understand the question, what is the answer: HOW DO ELECTRIC CARS GET THEIR CABINS HEATED?

would assume a resistive element? which would tend to suck down a lot of amphours from the battery quite fast...

[quigleydoor]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

but yes, i would agree that this is an excellent example of EJ's thesis of what is necessary for The US (and the rest of the world) to prosper going forward.

Thanks. This is the sanity check I was looking for. Apologies to everyone for making you listen to Deval Patrick for 20 seconds.

[BoggleFed]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

would you agree (in concept) then that chevy's volt has the best potential?
this strikes me as the most viable, as it seems to be the best combo of both electric and liquid fuel technologies

The Volt doesn't meet EJ's qualifications of a traditional hybrid car. A traditional hybrid only needs a battery large enough to handle a bit of stored energy (hopefully most of which is recovered from regenerative braking) that can be used for "free" propulsion or a bit of a boost under acceleration. For example, a regular Prius with a NiMH battery will only drive ~1.5 miles at under 40mph on battery alone. The battery on a true hybrid can be comparatively quite small in order to get all of the fuel economy advantages.

On the other hand the Volt has a full-size Lithium battery pack because the Volt is intended to be used as a full-electric car. Once the Volt runs out of battery and kicks over to the gas generator it is only good for about 35mpg average. A specifically designed gas/electric hybrid like the Prius can do much better at 48mpg+. A true hybrid also has a big advantage when it comes to heating the interior during the winter, since it runs the engine - producing waste heat that can be used to heat the cab - the majority of the time anyway.

Toyota is coming out with a new "EV" plug-in Prius, but honestly I think that Toyota is only doing it to show the other manufacturers (including GM) up. An EV car doesn't make much sense for one very good reason. In order to pay off the difference in price of an EV car you need to drive a lot of miles - but EV cars have an extremely short range on battery only... so how do you rack up high mileage on battery with a short range? A traditional non-plugin hybrid like the base Prius can actually make economic sense if you drive long distances and put lots of miles on the car every year - think 30,000+ miles a year at $3.50 gas if you want to recover the extra cost in a reasonable amount of time (say 5 years, at $900 saved per year over a 34mpg car).

[we_are_toast]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

I recently bought a Zero S 100% electric motorcycle. For my purposes it exceeded my expectations. I can ride it to run errands and attend meetings if the full trip is less than 50 miles. It takes 2 hours to fully charge and I can top it off like a laptop at many locations so I've never come close to running out of juice.

The main reason it works so well is that the bike is light and so am I. Otherwise, the range will be much lower and the usefulness more limited. For cars, necessarily heavy, the amount of raw materials needed to create a car with any reasonable range and recharge time is cost-prohibitive.

My motorcycle costs about two and a half times the equivalent 250CC gasoline motorcycle. It only costs 49 cents per charge. Gasoline costs about $10 to go as far on a 250CC gas bike. The price difference doesn't pay off until you ride 25,000 miles. But then you need a new $4,500 replacement battery, so you never break even.

Bottom line, an electric vehicle (EV) will not save you money until gasoline gets much, much more expensive.

The gating factor for the use of batteries for 100% EVs is that there is simply not enough raw material to make much of a dent in the auto market. This article does the math.

The chart below uses the article's conclusion to forecast a maximum EV replacement rate in the US market, ignoring costs, user rejection issues related to the less convenient usage model, and other inhibitors to adoption.

If 100,000 tons of Lithium Carbonate (LCE) is mined globally every year, four times as much as was mined in 2010, and all of it goes into making LiIon batteries for cars, 3 million cars per year can be produced, or a quarter of the 12 million new autos that are sold in the US annually.

If all 3 million EVs were sold into the US market, and the total number of cars does not increase, it will take until 2030 to replace 24% of the current fleet of gasoline and diesel cars and until 2050 to replace all of them.

At a production rate of 100,000 tons per year, the world has a 100 year supply. If the production rate rises to produce enough LCE to make enough EVs to replace half the US fleet in ten years, or 100% of the current 12 million units purchased annually, 400,000 tones of LCE will be needed annually, or 16 times current production. At that rate the total worldwide LCE reserves will be completely used up in 24 years.

This is why in my book I conclude that EVs are not be the wave of the future. Diesel hybrids are. They will get 100MPG plus and can be used the way pure fossil fuel cars are used, without planning, and the batteries need be only a quarter or less the size of EV batteries.

I drive a diesel BMW 335D. It's by far the best car I've ever owned. It actually gets 36MPG as advertised, and it's as fast as my old M3. I'll buy a diesel hybrid when one becomes available. I hope that it, like my motorcycle, will be made in USA.

Thank you for one of your typical detailed and very informative responses to this very important issue. IF or when Electric vehicles start making significant impacts in the personal transportation market, it could very well have an enormous impact on the economy, the environment, and many of our personal investment portfolios.

I am aware of the limitations of Lithium Carbonate, and 100% agree that if battery chemistry advancements do not make Lithium Carbonate a transitional battery technology, then the projections you so graphically point out, could very well become reasonable.

Should we make the assumption that Lithium Carbonate will be the primary battery chemistry for EV's 10, 20, 30+ years into the future? Maybe not.

There was a puzzling moment in the conference call GM held yesterday to announce its licensing of a new high-energy battery-electrode chemistry from Argonne National Laboratory. Mohamed Alamgir, research director for LG Chem’s subsidiary Compact Power, which builds the battery cells for the Chevy Volt, mentioned that the new license covered technology the companies were already using. This didn’t seem to make sense: LG Chem has always said that the Volt’s batteries were built on a compound called lithium manganese spinel. Was he saying that this new compound -- which has a long and unwieldy name* but which is most easily referred to as nickel-manganese-cobalt, or NMC -- was already in the Volt? Last night a source with deep knowledge of the subject confirmed that this is indeed the case: The battery cells LG made for the current-generation of Volts already have an early version of the “new” compound blended into them, along with the previously advertised manganese spinel chemistry.

http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2...ady-chevy-volt

There are also advances with carbon nanotubes, bio anodes and cathodes, and even major advances in Lithium batteries such as Lithium Thionyl Chloride and Lithium Manganate. There are currently major price changes happening in the PV market, could we see the same in the Battery market?

With gasoline and diesel at $10 or $15/gal, I wonder just how many of those 250 million vehicles will be considered essential or needed? 90%, 80%, or considerably less? It would most certainly make the graph look different.

For many years now I've believed that a better battery changes the world. A major breakthrough in battery technology could have a major impact on economic forecasts, investments, and even predictions of war. It just so happens that one of the major players in battery research is MIT, in your own backyard. I'm not sure if any other iTulipers consider battery advancement as a possible major economic game changer for the future, but if they do, maybe it would be worthwhile to hop on that electric motorcycle and take a spin down to MIT and interview a few of those people? Do the people there believe that major advances in battery technology will allow batteries to be built from reasonably sustainable sources, at a price that would make EV's competitive with diesels at $10 or $15/gal? You had a great interview about NG, maybe one about EV's might be of interest to your readers.

[lektrode]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

...As for the other story, Cape Wind is a bad idea. I've also commented previously on the expense and maintenance of deep water wind turbines. Land based wind energy is sold retail for under 10 cents a kWh which gives it cost parity with natural gas based electricity.
.....

ah but you overlook the REAL story/issue: this is just another in a long line of special interest, made-it-in-Mass, dem-party/bluestate porkfests... just exactly like what goes on out here - but with the added twist, and in The Ultimate Definition of IRONY, by the objection of the NIMBY-ite inhabitants of the high-priced coastal realestate along cape cod (never mind the kennedy clan, whos view of nantucket sound will be 'ruined') and if you want to see the ultimate outcome of putting incredibly expensive federally subsidized towers made of steel in a highly corrosive environment, look no further than this: http://www.gigapan.org/gigapans/1780/

so the first question i would have on this particular boondoggle would be:
WHO WILL GET STUCK PAYING FOR THE REMOVAL 'decommisioning' of these 20% potential-output eyesores, AFTER all the fed-bux have been burnt?

and at what price-point does HUGE UTILITY-SCALE installations of this sort constitute a bad deal for the ratepayers/taxpayers vs having small scale windgens on yer own house, with NONE of the drawbacks, such as line-losses over the miles and miles of cable to get the juice to someplace to use it?

would seem to me that the likely hundreds of millions this setup will end up costing would be far more effective doled-out to the end-user/consumer of the power so WE might get the benefit of the subsidy DIRECTLY, rather than having to pay for it twice (or would that be 3 or 4 times) thru increased taxation and the endgame of the associated graft/corruption, jacked-up pricing that goes along with this kind of project, in addition to the tax write-offs the investors/utilities get thru depreciation etc and then charge the consumer AGAIN for, while pocketing their guaranteed monopoly profit margin, all paid for by J.Q. Ratepayer?

thats the real question i have about these subsidies

[lektrode]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

thanks boggle!
this is why i love hangin out with this bunch - i learn more by interacting on a few posts than i would by spending days reading up on the topics myself.

The Volt doesn't meet EJ's qualifications of a traditional hybrid car. A traditional hybrid only needs a battery large enough to handle a bit of stored energy (hopefully most of which is recovered from regenerative braking) that can be used for "free" propulsion or a bit of a boost under acceleration. For example, a regular Prius with a NiMH battery will only drive ~1.5 miles at under 40mph on battery alone. The battery on a true hybrid can be comparatively quite small in order to get all of the fuel economy advantages.

On the other hand the Volt has a full-size Lithium battery pack because the Volt is intended to be used as a full-electric car. Once the Volt runs out of battery and kicks over to the gas generator it is only good for about 35mpg average. A specifically designed gas/electric hybrid like the Prius can do much better at 48mpg+. A true hybrid also has a big advantage when it comes to heating the interior during the winter, since it runs the engine - producing waste heat that can be used to heat the cab - the majority of the time anyway.

Toyota is coming out with a new "EV" plug-in Prius, but honestly I think that Toyota is only doing it to show the other manufacturers (including GM) up. An EV car doesn't make much sense for one very good reason. In order to pay off the difference in price of an EV car you need to drive a lot of miles - but EV cars have an extremely short range on battery only... so how do you rack up high mileage on battery with a short range? A traditional non-plugin hybrid like the base Prius can actually make economic sense if you drive long distances and put lots of miles on the car every year - think 30,000+ miles a year at $3.50 gas if you want to recover the extra cost in a reasonable amount of time (say 5 years, at $900 saved per year over a 34mpg car).

[lektrode]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

...
For many years now I've believed that a better battery changes the world. A major breakthrough in battery technology could have a major impact on economic forecasts, investments, and even predictions of war. It just so happens that one of the major players in battery research is MIT, in your own backyard. I'm not sure if any other iTulipers consider battery advancement as a possible major economic game changer for the future, but if they do, maybe it would be worthwhile to hop on that electric motorcycle and take a spin down to MIT and interview a few of those people? Do the people there believe that major advances in battery technology will allow batteries to be built from reasonably sustainable sources, at a price that would make EV's competitive with diesels at $10 or $15/gal? You had a great interview about NG, maybe one about EV's might be of interest to your readers.

+1

writing as a guy who earns his living selling, installing, servicing, designing/building battery powered electrical systems, i second that motion.

[santafe2]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

Sure, so how many watts do you need to power an electric car?

If we take the (highly optimistic) 25 kwh per 100 miles, then we'd need at least 3 kilowatts installed just for the car. Of course we'd also need the electrical system plus a storage system - add on losses and you're looking at 4 to 5 kilowatts installed.

Tack on the average 900 kwh/month usage, and that's another 10 kilowatts installed.

And as for solar being a utility level electricity supplier: as of 2009 solar supplies 0.2% of US electricity. Just a bit far away.

Finally as to pricing: I'd like to see the details on what is being purported.

Wholesale solar only pricing - excluding electrical systems and storage - isn't helpful. Doubly so when the type of solar panel is talked about: there are huge lifespan and efficiency differences between thin film, monocrystalline, polycrystalline, SiGe, GaAs, single junction, multi-junction, etc etc.

This issue of watts to miles is a sticky one. When Tesla was about to release the roadster, I, and a group of my associates, consulted with them on sizing a standard PV system to off-set the requirements of the vehicle. There are the usual issues regarding panel angle and orientation but there are other issues related to how the driver uses the vehicle...miles per kWh change if you love to drive the pedal to the floor.

A gallon of gasoline is roughly equal to 33 kWh. I think you're correct when you say that 25kWh=100 miles is an over statement. It's likely closer to 50 miles. But electric cars are a new technology and while a little over 1 kWh per mile is not very impressive, it's a great start for a technology that's only a few years old. If we extrapolate from the average 15 cents cost per kWh for a solar installation, this equals $3.75 a gallon for a 50 mph car or a typical 2011 Prius.

Electric vehicles are still waiting for a battery breakthrough. It will come in the next 5 years or so. Until then, it's only something folks like me will adopt. It's hard to make an economic argument.

[santafe2]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

ah but you overlook the REAL story/issue: this is just another in a long line of special interest, made-it-in-Mass, dem-party/bluestate porkfests...

You and I will get stuck with this like we will get stuck with payment for the war in Afghanistan and everything else goofy politicians invent. Until we understand that Clinton, Bush 1&2, Obama and Reagan are all cut from the same corporate cloth, we've no chance.

[santafe2]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

What's driving it? I've been looking around for PV arrays casually and they seem to be more than just a few months ago at the retail level. Maybe I'm comparing PVs made of different materials. Is there a specific technology that looks to be first to reach parity w/ dino-electric?

For distributed solar the only technology with market force is traditional crystalline solar. Any brand name is fine. For utility scale projects thin film or concentrated solar are equally well suited. Crystalline technology will reach grid parity next year where traditional energy costs are in the 10-12 cents per kWh range.

[Starving Steve]

Re: FT: Massachusetts reaps a wind and solar harvest, 6/8/2011

This issue of watts to miles is a sticky one. When Tesla was about to release the roadster, I, and a group of my associates, consulted with them on sizing a standard PV system to off-set the requirements of the vehicle. There are the usual issues regarding panel angle and orientation but there are other issues related to how the driver uses the vehicle...miles per kWh change if you love to drive the pedal to the floor.

A gallon of gasoline is roughly equal to 33 kWh. I think you're correct when you say that 25kWh=100 miles is an over statement. It's likely closer to 50 miles. But electric cars are a new technology and while a little over 1 kWh per mile is not very impressive, it's a great start for a technology that's only a few years old. If we extrapolate from the average 15 cents cost per kWh for a solar installation, this equals $3.75 a gallon for a 50 mph car or a typical 2011 Prius.

Electric vehicles are still waiting for a battery breakthrough. It will come in the next 5 years or so. Until then, it's only something folks like me will adopt. It's hard to make an economic argument.

PV and angle of panels to make an electric car work? HELLO???????????????????????????????????

The law of zero is that anything multiplied by zero = ZERO. So, you can have as many solar panels as you want to, but the car will go ZERO distance.......... Like you start with a few square centimetres of solar panels on the car roof, and you multiply that my x amount, the amount of energy produced is still about ZERO.

Or are you talking about solar panels out in the Mojave Desert in JUNE OR JULY when the clouds have not yet arrived with the late summer monsoon, and with the solar panels at a 90-degree angle to Sun's rays and re-set hourly by a machine, and the air is clear without dust or smoke, and the time of day is near solar noon, and the solar panels are new, and you cover half of Riverside County or Kern County or Imperial County with solar panels, and you transmit power onto the grid via platinum or gold wires, and you have a hot-wire leading to the car from the grid, and your car is light and maybe made out of mylar or celophane wrap, then and only then maybe you would have enough electric power from your photo-voltaic system to drive your car a few miles, maybe from Las Vegas, Nevada to Bad Water in Death Valley, California--- because the trip is mostly downhill.

THE LAW OF ZERO: You start with zero, and you end-up with zero no-matter how many times you multiply it. You can have a number of battery-storage stations along the way to re-charge your grid, but you are re-charging the grid with almost zero electric energy after each battery-storage station.

I confess that I am only a geographer, and I get lost with advanced calculus. But 0 * N = 0. Or, 0 + 0 + 0......., forever = ZERO.