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How did you miss this rosey forcast for Britians future Mega?
no way out?
why the British economy is in very deep trouble
The debate over deficits and growth ignores the pivotal role played by private borrowing in driving economic output during the ‘Brown bubble’.
Over the past decade, the British economy has been critically dependent on private borrowing and public spending. Now that these drivers have disappeared private borrowing has evaporated, and the era of massive public spending expansion is over the outlook for growth is exceptionally bleak.
Sectors which depend upon either private borrowing or public spending now account for at least 58% of economic output. These sectors are now set to contract rather than expand, which renders aggregate economic growth implausible. And, without growth, there may be no way of avoiding a debt disaster.
After a decade of private and public excess, Britain has a debt-ravaged economy for which deficit reduction is vital. The government’s deficit-reduction plan is critically dependant upon growth returning to pre-crisis levels, and a return to growth is essential anyway if the burden of wider (private as well as public) debt is not to prove too heavy for Britain to carry.
Government and opposition alike base their thinking on the assumption that, by one means or another, growth can be restored.
We see no reason whatever to assume this. To focus on the deficit is to ignore the fact that the British economy had become debt dependant long before the financial crisis.
http://www.tullettprebon.com/announc...IN20110526.pdf
no way out?
why the British economy is in very deep trouble
The debate over deficits and growth ignores the pivotal role played by private borrowing in driving economic output during the ‘Brown bubble’.
Over the past decade, the British economy has been critically dependent on private borrowing and public spending. Now that these drivers have disappeared private borrowing has evaporated, and the era of massive public spending expansion is over the outlook for growth is exceptionally bleak.
Sectors which depend upon either private borrowing or public spending now account for at least 58% of economic output. These sectors are now set to contract rather than expand, which renders aggregate economic growth implausible. And, without growth, there may be no way of avoiding a debt disaster.
After a decade of private and public excess, Britain has a debt-ravaged economy for which deficit reduction is vital. The government’s deficit-reduction plan is critically dependant upon growth returning to pre-crisis levels, and a return to growth is essential anyway if the burden of wider (private as well as public) debt is not to prove too heavy for Britain to carry.
Government and opposition alike base their thinking on the assumption that, by one means or another, growth can be restored.
We see no reason whatever to assume this. To focus on the deficit is to ignore the fact that the British economy had become debt dependant long before the financial crisis.
http://www.tullettprebon.com/announc...IN20110526.pdf
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