BP annual energy report: oil

[c1ue]

BP's latest annual world energy report is out - and the oil section as always has some interesting bits:

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_inte...ction_2011.pdf

For example: North America

	End 1990	End 2000	End 2009	[_________________End 2010________________]
	TM barrels	TM barrels	TM barrels	TM tonnes	TM barrels	Share/total	R/P ratio
US	33.8	30.4	30.9	3.7	30.9	2.20%	11.3
Canada	11.2	18.3	32.1	5	32.1	2.30%	26.3
Mexico	51.3	20.2	11.7	1.6	11.4	0.80%	10.6

TM barrels = thousand million barrels

Note the massive decline for Mexico - Pemex selling out on the cheap

Note also the increase in Canada - largely a function of oil price making oil sands economic, thus literally creating reserves.

Here's some excepts on historical usage:

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Change	Share/total	Change
US	19701	19649	19761	20033	20732	20802	20687	20680	19498	18771	19148	2.00%	21.10%	-2.81%
Iran	1304	1322	1423	1509	1578	1641	1728	1718	1822	1787	1799	1.00%	2.10%	37.96%
Israel	279	260	260	267	251	257	251	264	259	246	242	-2.20%	0.30%	-13.26%
Kuwait	249	253	273	296	327	359	333	338	359	399	413	2.80%	0.40%	65.86%
Qatar	60	73	84	95	107	122	136	153	174	176	220	18.10%	0.20%	266.67%
Saudi Arabia	1578	1622	1668	1780	1913	2001	2074	2200	2387	2624	2812	7.10%	3.10%	78.20%
United Arab Emirates	396	400	439	488	515	553	584	617	654	616	682	8.40%	0.80%	72.22%
Other Middle East	1155	1218	1228	1180	1255	1291	1390	1446	1499	1584	1653	3.80%	2.00%	43.12%
Total Middle East	5021	5148	5374	5615	5946	6225	6497	6736	7153	7433	7821	4.60%	8.90%	55.77%
China	4766	4859	5262	5771	6738	6944	7437	7817	7937	8201	9057	10.40%	10.60%	90.03%
China Hong Kong SAR	201	243	267	269	313	285	305	324	293	280	324	15.20%	0.40%	61.19%
India	2261	2288	2376	2420	2574	2567	2571	2835	3068	3211	3319	2.90%	3.90%	46.79%
Indonesia	1143	1160	1207	1232	1306	1295	1240	1270	1264	1289	1304	0.70%	1.50%	14.09%
Japan	5530	5394	5320	5413	5238	5334	5203	5029	4836	4391	4451	1.50%	5.00%	-19.51%
Singapore	645	706	690	660	739	817	865	941	990	1067	1185	10.90%	1.50%	83.72%
South Korea	2252	2259	2308	2326	2283	2308	2317	2389	2287	2326	2384	2.50%	2.60%	5.86%
Taiwan	882	936	954	994	1039	1049	1039	1093	990	983	1026	4.70%	1.10%	16.33%
Thailand	835	831	886	953	1040	1096	1097	1088	1090	1121	1128	0.50%	1.20%	35.09%
Total Asia Pacific	21135	21353	21987	22750	24081	24503	24914	25753	25715	25866	27237	5.30%	31.50%	28.87%

Note that for all the big talk about China's impact - the increase from 2000 to 2010 was 4.291 billion barrels.

The Middle East, however, increased its usage 2.8 billion barrels in the same period.

Europe, Japan, the US all saw drops in oil usage from 2000 to 2010

[c1ue]

Re: BP annual energy report: oil

Oh, and just for kicks, look at the renewables section as well.

US consumption of oil, million tonnes equivalent in 2010: 850
US total production of renewable energy, million tonnes equivalent in 2010: 39.1
Of the above, from biofuels: 25.35

So reorienting 30% of the entire US corn crop to ethanol gets the US just under 3% of its annual oil consumption.

[touchring]

Re: BP annual energy report: oil

The Middle East, however, increased its usage 2.8 billion barrels in the same period.

Europe, Japan, the US all saw drops in oil usage from 2000 to 2010

The 2.8 includes refining and exporting the refined products?

[lektrode]

Re: BP annual energy report: oil

....So reorienting 30% of the entire US corn crop to ethanol gets the US just under 3% of its annual oil consumption.

see any data on what thats done to table food prices?

[c1ue]

Re: BP annual energy report: oil

The 2.8 includes refining and exporting the refined products?

Probably - but note that an exported refined product is no longer oil.

The trade flows section shows the otherwise odd seeming flows to/from South and Central America

see any data on what thats done to table food prices?

That isn't in BP's report, but a glance at corn prices isn't hard to find:

[GRG55]

Re: BP annual energy report: oil

BP's latest annual world energy report is out - and the oil section as always has some interesting bits:

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_inte...ction_2011.pdf

For example: North America



TM barrels = thousand million barrels

Note the massive decline for Mexico - Pemex selling out on the cheap

Note also the increase in Canada - largely a function of oil price making oil sands economic, thus literally creating reserves.

...

Partly correct. However the main reason for the increase is that this annual review is authored by...BP.

During the John Browne era, BP's strategy was anchored by a view that oil prices would remain perpetually low [the same thinking that permeated The Economist magazine in the famous "$5.00 oil" article in March 1999 http://www.economist.com/node/188181]. In the middle of the past decade, when nominal oil prices broke above $40, Browne was famously quoted as saying the "natural price for oil" was no more than $25. I am sure it did not escape any iTuliper's attention that even in the depths of the post credit crisis price collapse, nominal oil prices never fell to $25. However in the BP world view there was little room for heavy oil or oil sands reserves, and the annual BP Energy Review reflected that. Year after year the annual review showed a miniscule Canadian oil sands reserves value well below the amounts that the oil sands and heavy oil industry players - which include Exxon, Shell, Total and a few other major BP competitors - were publishing.

When Browne's BP acquired Chicago headquartered Amoco Corporation in 1998, the wholly owned Canadian subsidiary of Amoco was a significant producer of heavy oil, a long time holder of oil sands leases and a pioneer in the research and development of in-situ oil sands production going back to the 1970s. Amoco's Whiting, Indiana refinery was set up to process heavy crude, making for a lovely vertically integrated operation with Canada. BP set about selling the upstream properties and terminating the staff, including the engineers with the specialized knowledge. The best of these went on to start their own companies, or became senior members of other companies in the heavy oil and oil sands industry.

Well in this crazy world what goes around, comes around. More than any other factor, the unrelenting pursuit of a strategy based on a view that nominal oil prices would mean revert and remain low, long after the turn had occured, is what cost Sir John Browne his job.

BP's Canadian subsidiary is now trying to rebuild its "unconventional oil" position, which it hopes to make the core of its business as it now sells off what remains of its natural gas and gas liquids businesses.

The write-up in Canadian unconventional oil reserves in the annual BP Energy Review that came after Browne's "retirement" from BP was no coincidence...