China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

[Guinnesstime]

Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

Ugghh... maybe I should just stick to renting a 4WD to get to my field sites for research/work.

[c1ue]

Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

Perhaps you're right, but how do you know the demand in the US and Europe won't be much higher 4 years from today? Unless you believe in the 2012 theory.

Let me put it this way: put a firm number on 'much higher' and I'd be willing to bet money on it.

The last time the US went through a dollar devaluation induced energy crisis, overall oil usage in the US dropped 10% over a decade.

[touchring]

Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

Let me put it this way: put a firm number on 'much higher' and I'd be willing to bet money on it.

The last time the US went through a dollar devaluation induced energy crisis, overall oil usage in the US dropped 10% over a decade.

Actually, I'm not too sure how the next 5-10 years will work out. If there is peace, China will continue to expand economically. The Chinese are good merchants.

But if there is war in the region, China will be in trouble - the Chinese are never good soldiers.

[mooncliff]

Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

Actually, I think $200 a barrel oil will come much sooner, like by 2013 at the latest.

I expect the dollar to drop by about half by then, so that alone would make the oil $200.

More importantly, detailed accounting of future production shows a drop off in volume of 10% by 2013. If that turns out to be accurate, it will be obvious to everyone that we have a catastrophic sudden drop in oil supply, and once everyone realizes that, there will be chaotic hoarding... and hopefully some drastic energy efficiency moves. There is still a lot of waste that can be cut without particular hardship, and that will buy a little time.

[touchring]

Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

Actually, I think $200 a barrel oil will come much sooner, like by 2013 at the latest.

I expect the dollar to drop by about half by then, so that alone would make the oil $200.

More importantly, detailed accounting of future production shows a drop off in volume of 10% by 2013. If that turns out to be accurate, it will be obvious to everyone that we have a catastrophic sudden drop in oil supply, and once everyone realizes that, there will be chaotic hoarding... and hopefully some drastic energy efficiency moves. There is still a lot of waste that can be cut without particular hardship, and that will buy a little time.

OPEC is discussing an output increase, I'm wondering if there is really a disagreement or that there is little room for increase instead.

[mooncliff]

Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

I think OPEC is pumping all it can. I think they just dont have excess capacity left, especially Saudi Arabia.

[Kadriana]

Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

Is it really?

How many cars junked due to cash for clunkers?

How many SUVs lying around unused due to the price of oil?

In 5 or 10 years, the net demand from China may matter - but the reality is thus far all the demand in China is just making up for the lack of demand in the US, Europe, and Japan.

How much of China's demand is being held back by infrastructure? I've read stories about traffic jams lasting 9 days. If they build more roads, won't they have more people willing to travel even if oil prices double?

[flintlock]

Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

Yep, I still think the chances of oil demand going up in China are greater than it going down. Even if its a slow growth, combine it with India and other emerging nations and you can see where things are headed. Long term at least.

[touchring]

Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

Yep, I still think the chances of oil demand going up in China are greater than it going down. Even if its a slow growth, combine it with India and other emerging nations and you can see where things are headed. Long term at least.

In my opinion, the whole of China has the potential to consume as much oil as Taiwan on a per-capita basis within 20 years.

Currently, Taiwan consumes about 900k million barrels a day for a population of 23 million.

If China were to reach Taiwan's per capital consumption, China's 1.4 billion people will consume 54 million barrels a day - this will take up 2/3 of the world's current oil production.

[c1ue]

Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

In my opinion, the whole of China has the potential to consume as much oil as Taiwan on a per-capita basis within 20 years.

Currently, Taiwan consumes about 900k million barrels a day for a population of 23 million.

If China were to reach Taiwan's per capital consumption, China's 1.4 billion people will consume 54 million barrels a day - this will take up 2/3 of the world's current oil production.

Yet another idiotic linear extrapolation.

For one thing, you fail to take into account the fact that one of Taiwan's major industries is oil refining:

http://www.texreport.co.jp/xenglish/...10/201009.html

*Taiwan's Gasoline Exports In June 2010 Amount To 390,000 KL
*Taiwan's Naphtha Imports In June 2010 Amount To 1.42 Mil. KL