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China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

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  • China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/43322435

    I already said, this is gona happen with 20 million new cars every year.

    Oil prices will rise to $200 within 3-4 years. Whatever monetary easing Ben Bernanke does is not going to offset the extra $400 billion a year to import oil at that price.


    China Biggest Oil Consumer in 2010: BP Report
    Published: Wednesday, 8 Jun 2011 | 7:31 AM ET Text Size By: Catherine Boyle
    Web Producer, CNBC.com

    Twitter LinkedInMore Share
    After decades of sustained growth, China became the world’s largest energy consumer in 2010, overtaking the US, according to BP, one of the world’s biggest energy companies.

    The rebound in the global economy helped drive energy consumption higher at a rate not seen since the aftermath of the 1973 oil price shocks.

    The impact of fossil fuel consumption on the environment has also grown, with BP [BP.-LN 441.85 -6.30 (-1.41%)] suggesting that global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy use rose at their fastest pace since 1969.

    Both mature OECD economies and non-OECD countries grew at above-average rates, according to the 60th annual BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

    “There were both structural and cyclical factors at work,” said Bob Dudley, BP Chief Executive, who took over from Tony Hayward in the wake of the Gulf of Mexico disaster.

    “The cyclical factor is reflected in the fact that industrial production rebounded very sharply as the world recovered from the global downturn. Structurally, the increase reflects the continuing rapid economic growth in the developing world.”

    He added: “I was in China a couple of weeks ago and I came away with a very clear sense of how rigorously China is thinking about these issues. Growth is by no means the only game in town. They want to maintain social cohesion and they want to make their growth more sustainable. In sum, they are worried about energy security and climate change – just as we are.”

    Dudley believes that to address these concerns “we can look to the markets, policy tools, technology advances and not least to the growth of renewable energies”.

    “This year, we have seen that the global energy markets are resilient,” he continued. “In the face of significant disruptions to the world’s energy system in Japan and Libya, demand continues to be satisfied. Markets work and markets work best when they are open and transparent.”

    It increased strongly for all forms of energy and in all regions, but more strongly in developing countries.

    “Economic growth was led by the non-OECD economies which had suffered least during the crisis. By year-end, economic activity for the world as a whole exceeded pre-crisis levels driven by the so-called developing world,” said Christof Rühl, BP’s group chief economist.

    “Energy intensity – the amount of energy used for one unit of GDP – grew at the fastest rate since 1970. And so, when all the accounting is done, planet Earth – we all – consumed more energy in 2010 than ever before,” said Rühl.

    Demand in OECD countries grew by 3.5 percent, the strongest growth rate since 1984, although the level of OECD consumption remains roughly in line with that seen 10 years ago.

    Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, at 33.6 percent of global energy consumption, which should cheer the OPEC nations meeting Wednesday. It continued to lose market share for the 11th consecutive year.

    © 2011 CNBC.com
    Last edited by touchring; June 08, 2011, 07:56 AM.

  • #2
    Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

    I have said this before in other posts. The world economy can not stand $200.00 sustained oil prices. This would cause incredible demand destruction. I can't say for sure but is the latest soft patch in the economy caused by $113 oil?
    How many of those 20million cars in china will not be driven because the gas costs too much. When the factories close because Europe and U.S. stop buying their exports because we are using all of our disposable income on gas?

    I think we will see $200 a barrel oil, but not soon 2020?

    I have changed my driving habits with 4.00 gas.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

      Oil 200 $ will end globalization and free trade much earlier.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

        Originally posted by charliebrown View Post
        I have said this before in other posts. The world economy can not stand $200.00 sustained oil prices. This would cause incredible demand destruction. I can't say for sure but is the latest soft patch in the economy caused by $113 oil?
        How many of those 20million cars in china will not be driven because the gas costs too much. When the factories close because Europe and U.S. stop buying their exports because we are using all of our disposable income on gas?

        I think we will see $200 a barrel oil, but not soon 2020?

        I have changed my driving habits with 4.00 gas.

        $200 per barrel is nothing 4 years down the road, after factoring in inflation.

        In many countries, people are already paying gasoline equivalent to $200 oil after you include the taxes.

        And it's not just China alone, car sales in India and Russia are exploding -

        http://indiaoncars.com/news/wp/2011/...-million-cars/
        http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/company-n...DJONLINE000251

        If peak oil is for real, the demand will exceed maximum supply within a couple of years.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

          Yes inflation is the wild card. When I say we will not reach $200.00 a year oil soon, this includes tame inflation. If money printing goes crazy, maybe wages will increase too, and will support $200. I do understand that wages in the developing world are rising rapidly, and this is where the new demand for cars is.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

            In many countries, people are already paying gasoline equivalent to $200 oil after you include the taxes.
            Exactly. We should be able to look at Europe to see what $5+ gallon gas does to people's habits. Diesel anyone? Smaller cars? Its coming to America.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

              Originally posted by flintlock View Post
              Exactly. We should be able to look at Europe to see what $5+ gallon gas does to people's habits. Diesel anyone? Smaller cars? Its coming to America.

              Yes, higher oil prices will reduce consumption in the developed world, therefore it will slow down the price increment. Lower consumption will mean lower car sales, consumers going out less often, lower GDP, lesser jobs created for the West.

              However, the reduction in consumption in the West will benefit emerging markets as a slower rate of price increment will in turn lead to an increase in consumption in BRIC. The final scenario is that total world oil consumption will still rise in the end. And with limited supply, that can only mean price will increase regardless, although at a more gradual rate.

              One thing about cars is that once a city starts using cars, everyone will be forced to drive a car or walk. It is like Singapore, one of the most dangerous places in the world to ride a motorbike or bicycle. Riders get killed all the time and the driver usually gets away with a small fine.
              Last edited by touchring; June 09, 2011, 02:11 AM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

                Originally posted by touchring View Post
                Yes, higher oil prices will reduce consumption in the developed world, therefore it will slow down the price increment. Lower consumption will mean lower car sales, consumers going out less often, lower GDP, lesser jobs created for the West.

                However, the reduction in consumption in the West will benefit emerging markets as a slower rate of price increment will in turn lead to an increase in consumption in BRIC. The final scenario is that total world oil consumption will still rise in the end. And with limited supply, that can only mean price will increase regardless, although at a more gradual rate.

                One thing about cars is that once a city starts using cars, everyone will be forced to drive a car or walk. It is like Singapore, one of the most dangerous places in the world to ride a motorbike or bicycle. Riders get killed all the time and the driver usually gets away with a small fine.
                *Singapore*? Seemed pretty safe to me and I was just there. Now you take Saigon or Hanoi - yeow! Dangerous just being on the street -- foot, bike, motorbike, car, whatever.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

                  Originally posted by jpatter666 View Post
                  *Singapore*? Seemed pretty safe to me and I was just there. Now you take Saigon or Hanoi - yeow! Dangerous just being on the street -- foot, bike, motorbike, car, whatever.

                  This is where it is deceptive, because drivers in Singapore don't expect people to cross the roads except at traffic lights, and the last time I saw a bicycle on the road was like 2 weeks ago or I didn't even notice. Here, accidents involving bikes and cars are highly fatal.

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                  • #10
                    Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

                    Originally posted by touchring View Post
                    This is where it is deceptive, because drivers in Singapore don't expect people to cross the roads except at traffic lights, and the last time I saw a bicycle on the road was like 2 weeks ago or I didn't even notice. Here, accidents involving bikes and cars are highly fatal.
                    All the same, when in Hanoi we were told there were 29 motorbike fatalities a *day*. And that was an improvement over last years 35/daily. I can't see Singapore anywhere near that.

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                    • #11
                      Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

                      Originally posted by touchring
                      And it's not just China alone, car sales in India and Russia are exploding -
                      2.4 million cars sold in India?

                      That sounds impressive until you consider the US is selling somewhat under 12 million cars/year.

                      As for Russia - you're flat out wrong. Russia's car sales jumped this year, but it had fallen 50% in 2009.

                      Car sales in Russia are not projected to return to pre-crisis levels until next year.

                      As for $200 oil - you need to be more clear on several other parameters: What is the RMB vs. US$ exchange rate? What is the 1 oz. Au/US$ value?

                      Sure, $200 oil with todays purchasing power US$ would be a catastrophe.

                      But $200 oil with Zimbabwe dollars - not so much.

                      Finally I'd note that gasoline in China is cheaper than anywhere which isn't a major oil producing nation, while diesel is heavily subsidized. Between the diesel subsidies and offshored 'dirty' manufacturing, China's oil consumption is almost certainly higher than it 'should' be, and in turn means that $200 oil plus the existing RMB/dollar peg is absolutely unsustainable.

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                      • #12
                        Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

                        http://youtu.be/sHoEzLmUWys

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                        • #13
                          Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

                          Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                          2.4 million cars sold in India?

                          That sounds impressive until you consider the US is selling somewhat under 12 million cars/year.

                          As for Russia - you're flat out wrong. Russia's car sales jumped this year, but it had fallen 50% in 2009.

                          Car sales in Russia are not projected to return to pre-crisis levels until next year.

                          Yes, but the point is that the car population is increasing faster than oil output.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

                            Originally posted by touchring
                            Yes, but the point is that the car population is increasing faster than oil output.
                            Is it really?

                            How many cars junked due to cash for clunkers?

                            How many SUVs lying around unused due to the price of oil?

                            In 5 or 10 years, the net demand from China may matter - but the reality is thus far all the demand in China is just making up for the lack of demand in the US, Europe, and Japan.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: China surpasses US as biggest oil consumer in 2010. Welcome $200 oil by 2014/15.

                              Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                              Is it really?

                              How many cars junked due to cash for clunkers?

                              How many SUVs lying around unused due to the price of oil?

                              In 5 or 10 years, the net demand from China may matter - but the reality is thus far all the demand in China is just making up for the lack of demand in the US, Europe, and Japan.

                              Perhaps you're right, but how do you know the demand in the US and Europe won't be much higher 4 years from today? Unless you believe in the 2012 theory.

                              Comment

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