Murder city - the future?

[mooncliff]

Re: Murder city - the future?

Look up "juking the stats".

And it is not just on "The Wire".

Listen to the second story about Office Schoolcraft and what the HEAD OF THE POLICE DEPARTMENT AND OTHER POLICE OFFICERS DID TO HIM.
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radi...-remain-silent


They reveal that precinct bosses threaten street cops if they don't make their quotas of arrests and stop-and-frisks, but also tell them not to take certain robbery reports in order to manipulate crime statistics. The tapes also refer to command officers calling crime victims directly to intimidate them about their complaints.
As a result, the tapes show, the rank-and-file NYPD street cop experiences enormous pressure in a strange catch-22: He or she is expected to maintain high "activity"—including stop-and-frisks—but, paradoxically, to record fewer actual crimes.
http://www.villagevoice.com/2010-05-...81st-precinct/

[pianodoctor]

Re: Murder city - the future?

The book "Freakonomics" makes a compelling argument relating the decrease in crime rates to legalization of abortion (Roe Vs Wade case) giving references to literature and case studies. He argues that before Roe Vs Wade, it was predominantly the daughter's of middle or upper-class families who could arrange and afford a safe illegal abortion. But, after the Roe Vs Wade decision, woman who were unmarried or in her teens or poor or all three were most likely to take advantage. Had they been born, most likely those kids would have had a bad future, it led to decrease in crimes (a decade or two later).

That's right. Freakonomics. That's where I read it. Thanks.

[photoncounter]

Re: Murder city - the future?

Appears to be a reasonable argument. Did the similar changes in crime rates occur in other counties after abortion was legalized?

Yes, I think it made brief references to Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, Australia, Canada and he gives example of Romania, after Nicolae Ceausescu declared abortion illegal in 1960's.

[photoncounter]

Re: Murder city - the future?

That's right. Freakonomics. That's where I read it. Thanks.

You are welcome, doctor.

[pmmeaney]

Re: Murder city - the future?

I think the Pemex thought is an interesting angle. I've also been curious about what effect the end of the housing bubble in the US has had on Mexico. Many hundreds of thousands of Mexicans went back home (also weren't calculated in increased unemployment in the US) to Mexico where there weren't any jobs. With this huge inflow of unemployed workers, the strain had to be severe. I could see this having a substantial effect on the increased violence there. Curious to hear others thoughts on this.

[flintlock]

Re: Murder city - the future?

I think the Pemex thought is an interesting angle. I've also been curious about what effect the end of the housing bubble in the US has had on Mexico. Many hundreds of thousands of Mexicans went back home (also weren't calculated in increased unemployment in the US) to Mexico where there weren't any jobs. With this huge inflow of unemployed workers, the strain had to be severe. I could see this having a substantial effect on the increased violence there. Curious to hear others thoughts on this.

It had to hurt Mexico severely. Around here,( Atlanta), Hispanics made up probably 75% of the home building workforce, regardless of what the official stats said. Some of them moved into home repair, but the vast majority have probably gone back home. So not only do they face high unemployment and vicious competition for the few jobs that do exist, they no longer have the steady stream of US dollars that poured into their country. ( not an insignificant part of their economy either!) An already bad situation got worse.
Parts of Mexico are in anarchy. I'd hate to have to live there. Maybe they could learn something from what is going on in the Middle East?

I believe Mexico may be past the point of any peaceful solution to the crime/drug/violence situation. About the best gift the US could give them would be military support and perhaps do something to take the wind out of the drug lord's sails, perhaps decriminalize drug use. I don't know. Not an easy situation. But I'd support a war of liberation for Mexico over the war in Iraq/Afghanistan. It certainly would be in our own interest. Frankly I think its past the point they can fix things themselves. Things seem to be getting worse.

[metalman]

Re: Murder city - the future?

It had to hurt Mexico severely. Around here,( Atlanta), Hispanics made up probably 75% of the home building workforce, regardless of what the official stats said. Some of them moved into home repair, but the vast majority have probably gone back home. So not only do they face high unemployment and vicious competition for the few jobs that do exist, they no longer have the steady stream of US dollars that poured into their country. ( not an insignificant part of their economy either!) An already bad situation got worse.
Parts of Mexico are in anarchy. I'd hate to have to live there. Maybe they could learn something from what is going on in the Middle East?

I believe Mexico may be past the point of any peaceful solution to the crime/drug/violence situation. About the best gift the US could give them would be military support and perhaps do something to take the wind out of the drug lord's sails, perhaps decriminalize drug use. I don't know. Not an easy situation. But I'd support a war of liberation for Mexico over the war in Iraq/Afghanistan. It certainly would be in our own interest. Frankly I think its past the point they can fix things themselves. Things seem to be getting worse.

remittances to mexico from mexican immigrants in the usa vs usa housing starts...

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Murder city - the future?

Sooner or later people will realize it all boils down to a population problem, not an economic one. The unintended consequences of technology combined with an improved understanding of medicine and disease. There probably is no pleasant way out of all this.

Birth control pills don't hurt.

[flintlock]

Re: Murder city - the future?

Birth control pills don't hurt.

But that kills the spontaneity!

[flintlock]

Re: Murder city - the future?

Thanks, I knew someone would post actual statistics.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Murder city - the future?

But that kills the spontaneity!

Not for me

[dcarrigg]

Re: Murder city - the future?

remittances to mexico from mexican immigrants in the usa vs usa housing starts...

Holy good God! I had never seen this. I figured it would be bad - but this is beyond what I imagined. There's a feature article here - just needs some fleshing out.

[solitas777]

Re: Murder city - the future?

The Jewelers’ Security Alliance agrees with you:

New York--The total number of crimes against the fine jewelry industry decreased by 4.5 percent in 2010 compared to 2009, announced the Jewelers’ Security Alliance yesterday in the release of its "2010 Annual Crime Report." Total dollar losses of $81 million suffered by victims represented a decrease of 17 percent* from the prior year.

“The cumulative effect of taking hundreds of jewelry criminals off the streets year after year has had a strong impact on reducing crime,” said JSA President John Kennedy.

JSA reports reduced crime against jewelers in 2010

but that's just it...abortion is taking criminals off the streets....before they are even born.

[fjweaver]

Re: Murder city - the future?

This is a bit off topic but since the last post refers back to the BIG them of the collapsing FIRE economy, I have a question to put out there and get some opinions. I completely beleive the Itulip thesis regarding the FIRE economy's failure and government willingness to try anything to prevent it. The question is what should someone, who had a long and prosperopus career, smack in the middle of the FIRE economy, do for the second half of his working years - what industries will be flourishing in the future?

[c1ue]

Re: Murder city - the future?

remittances to mexico from mexican immigrants in the usa vs usa housing starts...

What is the source of this graph?

I ask because I had posted specifically on remittances from Mexico not long ago.

The data from that post contradicts the remittance behavior in this graph - while remittances are down starting roughly 2007, they were rising every year until then.

This isn't necessarily a contradiction of what is shown - but the impact is far different given the absolute numbers.

Remittances to Mexico went from approx. $13B in 2004 to a peak of $26B in 2007, then $25B in 2008, then on pace for $22.5B in 2010. Hardly the same drop as housing starts:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...nces-to-Mexico