Murder city - the future?

[oddlots]

Heard an interview with this guy on CBC:

http://www.nationbooks.org/book/203/Murder%20City

Interview is here:

http://www.cbc.ca/day6/blog/2011/06/...ican-assassin/

Really fascinating and starkly worrying picture of what's happened in Mexico over time. What set's Boden apart in my mind is he's willing to look beyond the exponentially increasing violence to its causes, including a 25% unemployment rate. The picture of the state's role here is also alarming: its seems to be increasingly one of explicitly delivering prey (the public / electorate) to predators (the cartel and the wealthy.)

This is hardly unfamiliar, even to those priviledged westerners who would never think their home states had anything in common with the ongoing disaster that is Mexico.

Maybe I'm being a bit alarmist but I swear western economies seem less and less about competition among worthy projects - very naive, I know, but it's surely a question of degree - and more and more about manipulating subsidies from the state through buying political influence. (Think, Goldman Sachs cites "government relations" as a central business competency.)

In this context Mexico seems to suggest what future this might bring.

Not well put, but I swear there's something in this (we're just not poor enough yet to see it clearly.)

[FRED]

Re: Murder city - the future?

Heard an interview with this guy on CBC:

http://www.nationbooks.org/book/203/Murder%20City

Interview is here:

http://www.cbc.ca/day6/blog/2011/06/...ican-assassin/

Really fascinating and starkly worrying picture of what's happened in Mexico over time. What set's Boden apart in my mind is he's willing to look beyond the exponentially increasing violence to its causes, including a 25% unemployment rate. The picture of the state's role here is also alarming: its seems to be increasingly one of explicitly delivering prey (the public / electorate) to predators (the cartel and the wealthy.)

This is hardly unfamiliar, even to those priviledged westerners who would never think their home states had anything in common with the ongoing disaster that is Mexico.

Maybe I'm being a bit alarmist but I swear western economies seem less and less about competition among worthy projects - very naive, I know, but it's surely a question of degree - and more and more about manipulating subsidies from the state through buying political influence. (Think, Goldman Sachs cites "government relations" as a central business competency.)

In this context Mexico seems to suggest what future this might bring.

Not well put, but I swear there's something in this (we're just not poor enough yet to see it clearly.)

We are working on an analysis of crime, incarceration, and state budgets for a future report on the implications of a reversal in crime and incarceration rates that we expect to see as states shrink prison populations to save money.

Violent crime has declined since 1990.

So has the rate of property crime.

These declines in the crime rate coincided with the rise in incarcerations that began three years after passage of the 1987 Sentencing Act.

A decade ago, states ran out of money to build enough prison capacity to meet demand. The result is prison overcrowding.

Here's the coming US crime trend reversal process as we see it, in three waves:

Crime Wave 1: Prisoners released to relieve over-crowding.

Crime Wave 2: Prisoners released due to insufficient funds to maintain prison populations at current levels that are seven times as high as in 1980.

Crime Wave 3: Released prisoners combine with long-term unemployed 16- to 24-year-old males population to create a new criminal population.

Youth unemployment will not recover to the pre-recession low of 10% before the next recession. Even at 15%, if the youth unemployment rate gets that low, inflation will keep a large portion of the youth employed in poverty level living standards.

[mooncliff]

Re: Murder city - the future?

What part does the collapse of Pemex oil exports and the collapse of the oil revenue that used to supply the government with 60% of its revenue, running into an extremely young demographic, have to do with the escalating violence?

[jaboe]

Re: Murder city - the future?

Others have hypothesized that the crime rate decline starting in 1990 correlates with Roe v Wade in 1973. This would be 17 years after the court decision which made abortion more widespread and available. I am not well schooled enough about the subject but this may have played a factor as high risk individuals may not have been born at the same rates as in the past. This is also about the time when those individuals would be starting to commit crimes. I am not an advocate of this position however it may play a factor.

[mooncliff]

Re: Murder city - the future?

Here is a brief summary of abortion and crime rate.

http://www.sciamdigital.com/index.cf...C9-CDF545DBF64

[mmr]

Re: Murder city - the future?

Given the political pressure to maintain the trend of low / declining crime rates, I wouldn't be surprised if reported crime levels in the future are increasingly "adjusted" to maintain acceptable levels (to the extent that this hasn't been going on already).

Pretty soon, the crime statistics may be as credible as Chinese GDP or the US CPI, if they aren't already there.

[Chris]

Re: Murder city - the future?

I think the explanation is reasonable simple. Jailing criminals prevents further crime. This argument that abortion has reduced crime is spurious at best.

[FRED]

Re: Murder city - the future?

I think the explanation is reasonable simple. Jailing criminals prevents further crime. This argument that abortion has reduced crime is spurious at best.

The Jewelers’ Security Alliance agrees with you:

New York--The total number of crimes against the fine jewelry industry decreased by 4.5 percent in 2010 compared to 2009, announced the Jewelers’ Security Alliance yesterday in the release of its "2010 Annual Crime Report." Total dollar losses of $81 million suffered by victims represented a decrease of 17 percent* from the prior year.

“The cumulative effect of taking hundreds of jewelry criminals off the streets year after year has had a strong impact on reducing crime,” said JSA President John Kennedy.

JSA reports reduced crime against jewelers in 2010

[pianodoctor]

Re: Murder city - the future?

I remember a substantial article that correlated reducing crime statistics with abortion. I would not be too quick to dismiss it. It presented a pretty compelling case if I recall correctly. Think of it in the context of which age group is statistically most likely to commit crime, and how that tendency reduces with maturity. Then consider the fact we had a boom for a while of kids in that age group, which then tapered off significantly due to easily available abortion. I'm not saying this concept is proven beyond a reasonable doubt, but don't dismiss it without reviewing the case that was presented.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Murder city - the future?

U.S Property crime rate:



U.S. Incarceration rate:



Property crimes are about the same as in 1970, Incarcerations are up about 450% of 1970.

In 1974, incarceration rates started really climbing. They went up 250% through 1990, while property crime went up about 30% to 1980 and then held steady to about 1990.

Obviously, there are other stronger factors involved.

[FRED]

Re: Murder city - the future?

What part does the collapse of Pemex oil exports and the collapse of the oil revenue that used to supply the government with 60% of its revenue, running into an extremely young demographic, have to do with the escalating violence?

A large part, just as the ongoing collapse of the FIRE Economy will have a huge impact on both an increase in criminality and the expression of criminality in actual crimes committed due to declining incarceration rates.

[photoncounter]

Re: Murder city - the future?

I remember a substantial article that correlated reducing crime statistics with abortion. I would not be too quick to dismiss it. It presented a pretty compelling case if I recall correctly. Think of it in the context of which age group is statistically most likely to commit crime, and how that tendency reduces with maturity. Then consider the fact we had a boom for a while of kids in that age group, which then tapered off significantly due to easily available abortion. I'm not saying this concept is proven beyond a reasonable doubt, but don't dismiss it without reviewing the case that was presented.

The book "Freakonomics" makes a compelling argument relating the decrease in crime rates to legalization of abortion (Roe Vs Wade case) giving references to literature and case studies. He argues that before Roe Vs Wade, it was predominantly the daughter's of middle or upper-class families who could arrange and afford a safe illegal abortion. But, after the Roe Vs Wade decision, woman who were unmarried or in her teens or poor or all three were most likely to take advantage. Had they been born, most likely those kids would have had a bad future, it led to decrease in crimes (a decade or two later).

[flintlock]

Re: Murder city - the future?

I'm one of those who doesn't believe that violent crime and property crimes are down as much as the REPORTING of these crimes is down. Either through a willful attempt of local government to downplay the problem or the fact that its become so common that people don't bother reporting it. How many really expect to have their property retrieved after a burglary? Violence in some areas is so out of control even the police don't go there unless they have to. And victims know better than to "snitch". Perhaps incarceration has pulled off a lot of the most violent offenders, but there seems to be plenty of replacements in the pipeline.

Medieval rulers knew how to control the mob, and it wasn't with rehabilitation, probation, and time off for good behavior. And the plague came along every so often to thin the crowd. Runaway birthrates and better medical services, combined with bad economic conditions does not a happy community make.

One aspect of crime that is way up is fraud, with identity theft, various scams etc. The deterrent is just not there. Probation or a few days in jail is not going to stop it.

What is going on in Mexico is not that far off from America's future in my opinion. High unemployment and our continuing economic woes are just fueling more crime. People will find a way to get by, be it legal or not. It doesn't help that we have a new culture of criminal behavior that is glamorized. It gives those borderline types the rationale they need.

[FRED]

Re: Murder city - the future?

The book "Freakonomics" makes a compelling argument relating the decrease in crime rates to legalization of abortion (Roe Vs Wade case) giving references to literature and case studies. He argues that before Roe Vs Wade, it was predominantly the daughter's of middle or upper-class families who could arrange and afford a safe illegal abortion. But, after the Roe Vs Wade decision, woman who were unmarried or in her teens or poor or all three were most likely to take advantage. Had they been born, most likely those kids would have had a bad future, it led to decrease in crimes (a decade or two later).

Appears to be a reasonable argument. Did the similar changes in crime rates occur in other counties after abortion was legalized?

[flintlock]

Re: Murder city - the future?

Sooner or later people will realize it all boils down to a population problem, not an economic one. The unintended consequences of technology combined with an improved understanding of medicine and disease. There probably is no pleasant way out of all this.