Peek oil in 2012?

[Mega]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gue...time-now-short

Hmmmmm
mike

[lektrode]

Re: Peek oil in 2012?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gue...time-now-short

Hmmmmm
mike

hmmmm = right....

apparently this is chris martenson writing-in as a guest on ZH, and would say he calls the present sitch perty good, eh?

-------
Well, here we are a couple of years later, with those trillions and trillions out of the barn and stampeding off trying to create some real and lasting economic growth. As we score these efforts, it appears to us that the amount and type of growth that has been achieved is underwhelming, to say the least.

Housing remains in a serious slump, wage-based income growth is poor, Europe remains mired in a serious debt crisis, Japan has slumped back into recession, and the US fiscal deficit is a structural nightmare. Worse, GDP growth is relatively tepid and would be negative, deeply negative, without all the deficit spending and liquidity measures.

As predicted, all that thin-air money, once released into the wild, had a mind of its own and created a serious bout of commodity inflation, especially in food and fuel, which is now seriously impacting the poor and middle classes.
So it’s hard to call the trillions and trillions ‘well spent.’ I was hoping for better results.

Yet we can’t call the re-flation efforts a complete failure, as we are not in a serious, destructive deflation, and we’ve all been granted a bit more time to get ourselves prepared in whatever ways make sense. The gift of time has been invaluable, and for that I am grateful. But in terms of creating a true and lasting economic miracle? It turns out, once again, that 'printing' money electronically is no more effective than calling in the silver coin of the realm, making each unit slightly smaller, and then re-issuing it. Real economic growth has not been created.

What has happened is that false demand, spurred on by trillions in thin-air money, has also spurred on renewed demand for oil, hastening the day that a geologically inspired supply/demand mismatch will finally arrive.

We are driving at a high rate of speed into a box canyon.

-------

apparently he's still thinking about deflation (as in 1929-33 style), and if that happens, wont oil demand collapse?
at least in the 'short term' - why trying to come up with a bet (short term) on peak-oil keeps bringing this one to mind:
"...Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent...."

i mean we have seen just gasoline prices drop out here from 4.59/gal just a couple weeks ago to 3.99 today, the friday start to memorial day weekend, the official 'kick off' of the hazy-crazy driving daze of summer

but why do i keep thinking that this is just to lull the herd into complacency, so they make those plans to goto disney land etc and just as they start loading up the family truckster, the price will go launching up again???

[charliebrown]

Re: Peek oil in 2012?

This is Chris Martenson. I read this piece on financial sense yesterday.

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...-past-peak-oil

Unfortunately there is no where to post comments.
Oil cannot go to $200 a barrel. The economy would grind to a halt, demand would plummet and so would its price.
For those geeks out there the price of oil is going to be a sine wave phenomenon with a center line with an upward slope.

As the economy becomes more energy efficient oil can reach $200 a barrel but this is years down the road. We saw $113 an oil just a month ago and I definitely saw changes in oil use and descretionary spending. I have a large oil position, and will pare it back once we see sustained $115 - $120. I think that is the economic limit right now for oil

[touchring]

Re: Peek oil in 2012?

Unfortunately there is no where to post comments.
Oil cannot go to $200 a barrel. The economy would grind to a halt, demand would plummet and so would its price.
For those geeks out there the price of oil is going to be a sine wave phenomenon with a center line with an upward slope.

Even assuming a hard landing that may crash oil below $80 for a couple of months, but I still think oil will rise to $200 a barrel within 3-4 years of that hard landing. Reason being China is adding 20 million cars a year and the world doesn't have an extra 1 million barrels every year to send to China every year.

And if you think the Chinese can't afford $200 oil, let me just say their cars are smaller, drive in cities only and car owners are like the top 10% earners.

[lektrode]

Re: Peek oil in 2012?

Even assuming a hard landing that may crash oil below $80 for a couple of months, but I still think oil will rise to $200 a barrel within 3-4 years of that hard landing. Reason being China is adding 20 million cars a year and the world doesn't have an extra 1 million barrels every year to send to China every year.

And if you think the Chinese can't afford $200 oil, let me just say their cars are smaller, drive in cities only and car owners are like the top 10% earners.

perhaps - but there seems to be more than a little discrepency over what really exists, far as 'extractable' or might happen to any particular scenario - at least in the 'short term' (and they been saying such since the 1870's, havent they?)

this was interesting, from the COMMENTS: (maybe mr c1ue can have a quick look at some of this)

by Transformer
on Fri, 05/27/2011 - 15:58
#1317936

I guess no one here knows how to use google. 2nd google item:
The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is not controversial nor presently a matter of academic debate. The period of debate about this extensive body of knowledge has been over for approximately two decades (Simakov 1986). The modern theory is presently applied extensively throughout the former U.S.S.R. as the guiding perspective for petroleum exploration and development projects. There are presently more than 80 oil and gas fields in the Caspian district alone which were explored and developed by applying the perspective of the modern theory and which produce from the crystalline basement rock. (Krayushkin, Chebanenko et al. 1994) Similarly, such exploration in the western Siberia cratonic-rift sedimentary basin has developed 90 petroleum fields of which 80 produce either partly or entirely from the crystalline basement. The exploration and discoveries of the 11 major and 1 giant fields on the northern flank of the Dneiper-Donets basin have already been noted. There are presently deep drilling exploration projects under way in Azerbaijan, Tatarstan, and Asian Siberia directed to testing potential oil and gas reservoirs in the crystalline basement. (http://www.gasresources.net/index.htm)
It appears that, unbeknownst to Westerners, there have actually been, for quite some time now, two competing theories concerning the origins of petroleum. One theory claims that oil is an organic 'fossil fuel' deposited in finite quantities near the planet's surface. The other theory claims that oil is continuously generated by natural processes in the Earth's magma. One theory is backed by a massive body of research representing fifty years of intense scientific inquiry. The other theory is an unproven relic of the eighteenth century. One theory anticipates deep oil reserves, refillable oil fields, migratory oil systems, deep sources of generation, and the spontaneous venting of gas and oil. The other theory has a difficult time explaining any such documented phenomena.
http://www.questionsquestions.net/docs04/peakoil1.html
and here:
http://www.viewzone.com/abioticoilx.html
http://www.philipbrennan.net/2010/06/11/abiotic-oil-what-they-dont-want-...

And for those of you averse to reading, here's an interview with Fletcher Prouty
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJdNqYeVwX4

More
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/400230-vinod-dar/47079-abiotic-oil-and...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raymond-j-learsy/oils-dirty-big-secret-as_...
And here's a site with a ton of references.
http://freeenergynews.com/Directory/...ustainableOil/

If you really want to know, just keep searching. The proof is that Russia is now the worlds largest producer. Just 6 years ago, to predict that any country would surpass Saudi Arabia, would be called Heresy by the very people who predict Peak Oil. But remember, as long as the west sticks to the fossil theory, the price of oil goes up as the supplies get used up. The Russians don't care, they just keep increasing production. They long ago gave up on trying to convince the west. I imagine at this point, they have no interest in convincing the west. They get to sell abiotic oil to the west, at fossil fuels prices. Good deal.
You know, it's one of those theories, "fossil fuel", that the world will look back on and laugh about in the future.