Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

[blazespinnaker]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8399963.stm

I think it's worth considering that all the menial jobs are being taken over by computers and robots.

Only so many people seem to have the capacity to go into university and develop skills to make these computers and robots.

Where does that leave everyone else?

The next shoe to drop are robots that can take over menial manufacturing jobs. At that time, China will be in big big trouble

[c1ue]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

Yes, we'll get all those right after the Jetsons rocket air car.



And the Jetson's robotic maid.



Of course the Jetsons were a cartoon - they didn't have to worry about the economics of energy with the rocket air car which also had magical navigation and driving systems.

Nor did the Jetsons robotic maid ever need to be repaired, replaced, or reprogrammed - being magically perfect.

For that matter the Jetsons never actually paid for anything.

Then again, it is a fantasy cartoon.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

It's going to happen all at once and soon.

A robot which move around like a human and be trained with fine motor skills and visual recognition is going to replace in one very frightening swatch, 10s of millions of manufacturing jobs.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/in...the-machines/1

[metalman]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

It's going to happen all at once and soon.

A robot which move around like a human and be trained with fine motor skills and visual recognition is going to replace in one very frightening swatch, 10s of millions of manufacturing jobs.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/in...the-machines/1

simple task for a human is tough for a robot. but once you teach it... it'll do it forever for the cost of maintenance & electricity.



as robot makers come up with better ways to teach robots more & more complicated tasks & how to make decisions, more jobs will go to robots.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

It isn't just the manual labor at risk.
Much professional work is being computerized as well.

[don]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

Hopefully their benefits won't get out of hand.

[Master Shake]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?



Perhaps worth re-reading

[c1ue]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

A robot which move around like a human and be trained with fine motor skills and visual recognition is going to replace in one very frightening swatch, 10s of millions of manufacturing jobs.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Frankly there are so many poor people around that can be employed for $0.50/hour - what exactly is the benefit of replacing one with a $100K or $500k robot? What is the annual maintenance cost of said robot?

Rosie the servant has been talked about for decades; quite debatable whether the reality is getting closer at all.

Much like fusion power - every decade we are told it is a decade away.

[c1ue]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

If you want to talk about a real example of technology improving lives, there is one which is real and common:

The bread maker

For those who eat bread regularly - an electric bread maker completely removes the need for institutional bread buying. Bread itself used to be a specialized business particularly because it required a lot of labor.

Yet even this example is instructional.

Although the ingredients to creating bread are nickels and dimes, nonetheless for the unwary there are all sorts of ways by which monopolies eat away at the margin otherwise created by the bread maker.

Consider yeast. The triple packets of yeast most commonly found in supermarkets cost $2 or $3 each - one portion costs more than the flour in a loaf of bread in many cases.

What about common ingredients like oat or wheat bran? Again these are more and more difficult to buy period, much less at their very low unit cost.

I've mentioned before the "putting out" system and the powered loom.

Mere technology advance has not equated with improved standards of living in many historical examples - especially if banksters are capable of being involved.

Why would robotics be any different?

[charliebrown]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

If the cost of capital were to become high, then it is cheaper to employ humans than to sink capital into a big expensive machine.

The cost of capital has been on a downward slope for 30 years? We are almost at zero now. I think Johnson & Johnson can borrow money for 10 years at 3.5%. Perhaps this will be a blessing in disguise when interest rates finally rise.

If you travel to a third world country you will see work gangs fixing roads and rails. While in Peru, I saw actual gangs
doing the "gandy-dance". Here in the states it would have been 3 men with a Caterpiller product. Not many in Peru can
afford a Caterpiller product.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

If you want to talk about a real example of technology improving lives, there is one which is real and common:

The bread maker

For those who eat bread regularly - an electric bread maker completely removes the need for institutional bread buying. Bread itself used to be a specialized business particularly because it required a lot of labor.

Yet even this example is instructional.

Although the ingredients to creating bread are nickels and dimes, nonetheless for the unwary there are all sorts of ways by which monopolies eat away at the margin otherwise created by the bread maker.

Consider yeast. The triple packets of yeast most commonly found in supermarkets cost $2 or $3 each - one portion costs more than the flour in a loaf of bread in many cases.

What about common ingredients like oat or wheat bran? Again these are more and more difficult to buy period, much less at their very low unit cost.

I've mentioned before the "putting out" system and the powered loom.

Mere technology advance has not equated with improved standards of living in many historical examples - especially if banksters are capable of being involved.

Why would robotics be any different?

I have made bread regularly for 40 years. My wife bought me the first bread maker (looked like R2D2) in the late 80s. I have used a bread maker often since then, although I still make bread without a bread maker. I agree that the bread maker has not revolutionized bread making since most people I know that owns one do not use it. BTW, you can buy yeast in a jar and use it. You really don't have to use a packet of yeast (2 1/4 tsp), 1 1/2 tsp is usually enough.

[c1ue]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

If you travel to a third world country you will see work gangs fixing roads and rails. While in Peru, I saw actual gang doing the "gandy-dance". Here in the states it would have been 3 men with a Caterpiller product. Not many in Peru can afford a Caterpiller product.

You must be talking about a private sector affair.

In California, any Caterpillar product in actual operation is surrounded by at least 5 people standing with signs for 'safety', plus 1 person wielding a hose, plus the tanker truck, plus the dump truck, plus no doubt 1 or 3 supervisors. Certainly at least a few of these are necessary, but equally certainly not all or perhaps even most are.

BTW, you can buy yeast in a jar and use it. You really don't have to use a packet of yeast (2 1/4 tsp), 1 1/2 tsp is usually enough.

In the grocery stores I visit - the only yeast in a jar that is available costs $15. I'm not sure how many teaspoonfuls are in it, but it is likely around 30 or less - or comparable in price to the packets.

In contrast dry yeast by bulk is $3/pound. 8 ounces is good for at least as many loaves as said bottle.

[mesyn191]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

I'll believe it when I see it.

Frankly there are so many poor people around that can be employed for $0.50/hour - what exactly is the benefit of replacing one with a $100K or $500k robot? What is the annual maintenance cost of said robot?

Fair enough but you should realize that the robots won't cost $100k or even $50k, maybe $10-20k if that. I worked in a hospital a few years ago and they had robots that were being tested on site that would bring supplies up to the floors from the store room in that price range then. They would even call and ride the elevators and everything. For the hospital it was a huge boon since they could eliminate someone that required management and thus the manager too. This also allowed them to get rid of the pensions and benefits necessary for those respective workers, it was a real deal for them. And the robots were reliable! They got serviced once a year or so, you had a spare unit on hand for when one broke (it'd call for service via cell by itself), and they'd charge themselves and everything. The floors had their supplies JIT'd via PYXIS so there were no stock boys anymore and billing was also mostly handled automatically via those same units when nurses would take supplies from them. A dept. that once required 8 people or so on shift 24/7 now only required 2 or 3 per shift and the management fell under another dept. when the one who once headed it was transferred elsewhere.

This is a unit that was similar to that one but from a different company, I can't remember who made ours now. It was back in 2004/5 that they had them and I left a couple years later.

Rosie the servant has been talked about for decades; quite debatable whether the reality is getting closer at all.

Much like fusion power - every decade we are told it is a decade away.

Most of the fundamental problems have been fixed (ie. reliable cheap motors, sensors, and cheap small CPU's) for years now. The only thing holding them back is the software development, but once that is done its done. IMO we're probably only a few years away from whole job segments being wiped out due to the introduction of these robots into the work place. People won't complain at first since it'll be for the menial jobs (ie. grocery store cashier), but those valuable C+ and B grade blue collar jobs start disappearing due to robots then you'll hear some bitching. You won't be able to do anything though. Labor effectively hasn't had power in the US since the Regan years and our gov. and corps will care about the common man even less since by then we'll be redundant altogether.

No I doubt they'll go all Soylent Green on all the useless people, but you might see a new under class emerge that is kept perpetually poor and disenfranchised by a uncaring and amoral FIRE elite.

[c1ue]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

This is a unit that was similar to that one but from a different company, I can't remember who made ours now. It was back in 2004/5 that they had them and I left a couple years later.

The Speciminder you refer to above costs $50,000 and only carries specimens.

It doesn't load nor unload; all it does is transport.

It would be interesting to see exactly what the supposed experimental system you referred to can actually do.

I would also be very interested to see how the Speciminder does in a non-clinical environment - i.e. a hospital. In a lab where hopefully everything is organized relatively well, the environment is static enough that a modern navigating robot could survive.

In a real hospital where there are always things in the way: people, beds, wheelchairs, a moved wastebasket, etc etc not to mention radio signal interference - it might not work so well.

The only thing holding them back is the software development, but once that is done its done.

If you're talking about the self driving cart that is the Speciminder, then perhaps you might be right.

A robot which can do speech recognition, visual recognition, manual handling of delicate products, etc etc - neither the cost nor the reliability are anywhere near reasonable.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Is everyone becoming economically irrelevant?

...

A robot which can do speech recognition, visual recognition, manual handling of delicate products, etc etc - neither the cost nor the reliability are anywhere near reasonable.

My personal variation of the Turing test for such a robot.:

Tell it where the clothes dryer is, and have it get the laundry out and get the shirts onto hangers and the socks sorted.