is BP a buy now ?

[sishya]

I bought BP when it hit $28(literally a falling knife then) last year and sold it at $35(too early..I guess)

Tuesday, I bought BP again at $42.5, especially since media the sentiment is that commodities are going to collapse.
Anyone think it is still a buy ? since Oil in my opinion will go high.

[Starving Steve]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

Do not take this as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, and please consult with a qualified investment adviser before making any investment decision. Disclosed: that I own a few shares of BP that I over-paid for, but I collect all my dividends along the way.

BUY-BUY-BUY-BUY-BUY-BUY-BUY-BUY. It's a no brainer.

[LargoWinch]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

BUY-BUY-BUY-BUY-BUY-BUY-BUY-BUY. It's a no brainer.

Why? I understand that long-term oil is a no-brainer - if one can find a vehicle, but that is not necessarily the case with BP.

[Starving Steve]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

Why? I understand that long-term oil is a no-brainer - if one can find a vehicle, but that is not necessarily the case with BP.

I like the can-do attitude of BP: DRILL-DRILL-DRILL-DRILL-DRILL. And as it turned-out, BP was exactly right: the Gulf of Mexico oil spill was completely cleaned-up in about one month or six weeks. The warm Gulf of Mexico surface water takes care of any oil spill. The bacteria eat oil in the Gulf of Mexico. Nature does wonders for cleaning-up oil spills, especially in warm water....If I remember right, I told you so, too.

Other oil companies to watch: all of them that are large, piggy, and pay a nice dividend that reliably increases over time. Also watch the oil sands stocks in Alberta, so long as they pay a nice dividend that increases over time.

Starving Steve owns some of the above, but venture into any stock at your own risk. Please remember that I am a moron.

Is BP a buy now? "Does the buck stop here?" (Geico commercial on TV.) "Does it take two to tango?"

[sishya]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

Why? I understand that long-term oil is a no-brainer - if one can find a vehicle, but that is not necessarily the case with BP.

BP Assetss : 286 Billion
Liability : 184 Billion
==============
Cash : 102 Bilion
==============


At the worst the liabilities for BP in the Gulf: 20 Billion.
Now partner companies like Matsui/Anadarko Petroleum/Transocean/Halliburton also share liability, so this amount will be further reduced.


Estimated EPS = approx $7, It's forward PE is around 8, if we expect a higher Oil price, the projected PE will be much lower.
present market cap is only : 140 Billion, and this highly discounts the cash on hand.

I think it is highly undervalued. Current price should be at least $60.

[touchring]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

BP Assetss : 286 Billion
Liability : 184 Billion
==============
Cash : 102 Bilion
==============


At the worst the liabilities for BP in the Gulf: 20 Billion.
Now partner companies like Matsui/Anadarko Petroleum/Transocean/Halliburton also share liability, so this amount will be further reduced.


Estimated EPS = approx $7, It's forward PE is around 8, if we expect a higher Oil price, the projected PE will be much lower.
present market cap is only : 140 Billion, and this highly discounts the cash on hand.

I think it is highly undervalued. Current price should be at least $60.

I'm also considering but am concerned by the risks posed by the ending of QE2.

The Asian bubble - that is driving oil consumption - may also be in trouble soon.

[yourfather]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

BP Assetss : 286 Billion
Liability : 184 Billion
==============
Cash : 102 Bilion
==============


At the worst the liabilities for BP in the Gulf: 20 Billion.
Now partner companies like Matsui/Anadarko Petroleum/Transocean/Halliburton also share liability, so this amount will be further reduced.


Estimated EPS = approx $7, It's forward PE is around 8, if we expect a higher Oil price, the projected PE will be much lower.
present market cap is only : 140 Billion, and this highly discounts the cash on hand.

I think it is highly undervalued. Current price should be at least $60.

Depends on what you feel about investing a company that has a pretty poor track record of safety, but if you believe analyst earnings estimates for 2011 will be 80% accurate, then it should be about $65-75 per ADR using an average industry earnings multiple of 9...

There's reasons why its below average though and BPs relationships with Russia etc may prove a headwind.

I think that Statoil could probably show decent value because it has a strong dividend in a strong currency and although it is involved in Africa it still has reserves in stable generally corruption free countries. I'd probably pick Statoil over BP just for that reason.

[sishya]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

I'm also considering but am concerned by the risks posed by the ending of QE2.

The Asian bubble - that is driving oil consumption - may also be in trouble soon.

Only where there is fear can we take the other side on an undervalued asset and make money.
People think oil price is going down and QE2 is going to stop. So these are priced in.
I think it is time to buy commodities and specially Gold, if it drops to low $1400's

[Starving Steve]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

Only where there is fear can we take the other side on an undervalued asset and make money.
People think oil price is going down and QE2 is going to stop. So these are priced in.
I think it is time to buy commodities and specially Gold, if it drops to low $1400's

If oil goes into a sell-off down to test its old low of around $40 per barrel--- I doubt it, but it could --- then you buy more oil stoxx. Like you buy more BP or other piggy companies that are the best of the breed such as Exxon or Husky. Time is on your side because these eco-frauds have NOTHING to offer the world except faith.

Other things I like, and always have liked, are NUCLEAR POWER. The other thing that I like is natural gas. Another thing that
I like is hydro-electric power. Another thing that I like but hate is coal because coal is CHEAP and EASY and coal works and COAL CREATES JOBS like railroad jobs, coal-ship jobs, like coal-stoking jobs, like coal-mining jobs, and like coal-delivery jobs,
coal-dock jobs, coal-barge jobs, coal tree-planting and land-restoration jobs, and coal cancer-treatment jobs. COAL WORKS because COAL MEANS FILTH AND WORK. And another thing that I like is NUCLEAR POWER; write that on the blackboard: NUCLEAR- POWER.

Another stock that I like is GE because GE has a net-worth of the better part of ONE-TRILLION DOLLARS. And GE builds nukes. And GE pays a dividend that is worthy of the name. And GE is floating in cash. And GE means progress like hospital machinery, like locomotives, like nuclear-power plants, like turbines, like hydro-electric turbines, like jet-aircraft turbines. There are NO POT-HEADS working at GENERAL ELECTRIC. And GE is very under-valued. But what do I know because I am a moron and have papers to prove it.

Disclosed: I have shares in GE, and GE has been my worst loser to date. But GE pays me a dividend. The smartest people in America work for GE. General Electric is America, even the NBC Television Network.

I don't like gold at $1400 or $1500. I like U.S. dollars because the U.S. has: ( >8,000 TONNES OF GOLD on reserve at Ft. Knox) + (federal lands, including most of Arizona) + (the oil reserve off of Southern California) + (silver at West Point, NY) + (oil on reserve) + (so much natural gas that the entire continent is floating on it) + (NAFTA) + (the friendship of Saudi-Arabia) + (military might) + (some companies with common-sense like GE) + (Silicon Valley) + (the naive but refreshing liberalism of Obama) + (generally CHEAP real estate relative to Europe) + ( the rule of law, at least in theory ) + (democracy) + (oil shales) + ( helping-out in the oil sands in Alberta ) + (Exxon) + (the Great Lakes with Canada ) + (friendship with most nations, even the UK to-day) + ( Alaska's oil ) + (North Dakota's oil) + (so much oil in the Gulf of Mexico that it is mind-boggling) + (oil under Los Angeles).

Being a moron, I like gold at $500 per ounce about 20 years from now when everyone will hate gold. But what do I know?

[touchring]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

Only where there is fear can we take the other side on an undervalued asset and make money.
People think oil price is going down and QE2 is going to stop. So these are priced in.
I think it is time to buy commodities and specially Gold, if it drops to low $1400's

BP is indeed undervalued, so it's a case of an undervalued stock against an overvalued equity market.

[touchring]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

If oil goes into a sell-off down to test its old low of around $40 per barrel--- I doubt it, but it could --- then you buy more oil stoxx. Like you buy more BP or other piggy companies that are the best of the breed such as Exxon or Husky. Time is on your side because these eco-frauds have NOTHING to offer the world except faith.

Oil won't drop to $40 a barrel but i'm sure there's a high possibility it will fall $15-$20 if Gaddafi is caught, which can happen anytime. Gaddafi ain't bin laden, he can't hide in a house with no telephone and totally disconnected from the world.

2 million barrels is a lot.

[sishya]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

I don't like gold at $1400 or $1500. I like U.S. dollars because the U.S. has: ( >8,000 TONNES OF GOLD on reserve at Ft. Knox) + (federal lands, including most of Arizona) + (the oil reserve off of Southern California) + (silver at West Point, NY) + (oil on reserve) + (so much natural gas that the entire continent is floating on it) + (NAFTA) + (the friendship of Saudi-Arabia) + (military might) + (some companies with common-sense like GE) + (Silicon Valley) + (the naive but refreshing liberalism of Obama) + (generally CHEAP real estate relative to Europe) + ( the rule of law, at least in theory ) + (democracy) + (oil shales) + ( helping-out in the oil sands in Alberta ) + (Exxon) + (the Great Lakes with Canada ) + (friendship with most nations, even the UK to-day) + ( Alaska's oil ) + (North Dakota's oil) + (so much oil in the Gulf of Mexico that it is mind-boggling) + (oil under Los Angeles).

Being a moron, I like gold at $500 per ounce about 20 years from now when everyone will hate gold. But what do I know?

You forgot to mention the skyrocketing Money supply/FED Balance sheet, since 2008. Hence Gold is going up.
No one I know is confident about buying Gold at this price, except Central Banks. Everyone is scared of buying Gold.
If it drops to low 1400's, I buy.

[unlucky]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

Other things I like, and always have liked, are NUCLEAR POWER.

Speaking as a fellow nuke fan, if the market is heading into headwinds what do you think of nuke utilities e.g. Exelon and Entergy? Both have PEs around 10 right now.

[Starving Steve]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

Speaking as a fellow nuke fan, if the market is heading into headwinds what do you think of nuke utilities e.g. Exelon and Entergy? Both have PEs around 10 right now.

I dare not to advise because most of my energy stocks have been losers--- except that they pay dividends to me. Doesn't sound like a way to get rich, does it?

Duke Energy is a winner for me, but GE has been my worst loser. My oil sands stoxx have been losers so far, but Exxon a winner. Crescent Point drilling in Saskatchewan for sweet oil has been a winner. Daylight Energy has been a loser. BP has been a loser..... But up or down, I get the handsome dividend flow, roughly 4% or 5% on my money as an annual return.

My heart is with nuclear power for electricity, but that is no way to invest. So, I won't dare to advise anyone.

Common-sense would dictate that nuclear power is going to be real big after the Great Recession ends, if it ever ends. People have to lose everything and freeze in the dark, and then they might wake-up and demand an end to what Bill Gates calls, "the cute result of the folly into solar and wind power,". Gates said that such green-power initiatives, "lack in total output 'the oomff' necessary to even modestly help to meet the energy needs of the developed world."

Reference: Bill Gates: "Wind and Solar are 'Cute' " speaking in New York City on May 5, 2011

[sishya]

Re: is BP a buy now ?

You forgot to mention the skyrocketing Money supply/FED Balance sheet, since 2008. Hence Gold is going up.
No one I know is confident about buying Gold at this price, except Central Banks. Everyone is scared of buying Gold.
If it drops to low 1400's, I buy.

I started dipping into Gold today, looks like my price target of $1430 is not going to happen in a month. will keep poweder dry, if it happens.