Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

[DSpencer]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

I'm always hesitant to line up behind Starving Steve, but in this case he isn't so far off the mark.

And with good reason! He claims to be a moron and has done his best to back it up since this post.

It takes a special person to start with a reasonable conclusion (solar energy is not cost effective) and do such a terrible job of trying to prove it that someone who didn't already know better might start believing the opposite by default.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

Great stuff. Here is the calculation that I think is important. Given a calorie requirement of 3000 calories per day how many people can the earth sustain if all the solar energy hitting the surface became usable to keep humans alive? Then throw in conditioning a 1000 square foot living space to 72 degrees. This seems to me to give you some boundary on THE issue.

Earth's surface area is ~ 5.1 * 10^14 m^2

Earth's population is ~ 6,750,000,000

Earth's population growth rate is 1.3%

Given this, we have 870 years at current growth rates before there is only 1 square meter left per person on dry land (assuming sea level doesn't rise).

The question is where or whether the plateau happens.

[DSpencer]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

Great stuff. Here is the calculation that I think is important. Given a calorie requirement of 3000 calories per day how many people can the earth sustain if all the solar energy hitting the surface became usable to keep humans alive? Then throw in conditioning a 1000 square foot living space to 72 degrees. This seems to me to give you some boundary on THE issue.

I think that we would hit a different bottleneck well before the point where we didn't have enough of the suns energy to provide food and A/C. If nothing else it sounds like a miserable world.

[ASH]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

Looking again at the math... So that is something like $344 per year for my solar electric system. Is it worth it in terms of capital outlay? I guess that would depend upon the grants and how long the zero interest rate policy continues for savers. As for birds, branches and pine-needles, those would gradually cut the efficiency of my system. Also, the trees around my house would cut the efficiency of my system, right from the day the system is installed. But let's say, $344 per year is the optimistic forecast for the system.

I like this version of your calculation better. I, and several others, were trying to tell you that the value you were using for the solar constant was wrong -- not sell you on the economics of installing solar panels in B.C. The big losses occur on "the back end", as it were... day/night, angle of incidence, atmospheric attenuation, and conversion efficiency.

[ASH]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

Great stuff. Here is the calculation that I think is important. Given a calorie requirement of 3000 calories per day how many people can the earth sustain if all the solar energy hitting the surface became usable to keep humans alive? Then throw in conditioning a 1000 square foot living space to 72 degrees. This seems to me to give you some boundary on THE issue.

Given the political and geographic division of population, population growth, and natural resources, it seems like your calculation might need to be fragmented into different regions.

[ASH]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

The question is where or whether the plateau happens.

... or whether it's more of a peak and less of a plateau.

Actually, I think there's a very good chance that global population will stabilize. But even if some of the developing nations aren't following the trajectory of the developed world, and even if their population growth rates don't drop in the near future, they will individually face local Malthusian limits that eventually curtail their population growth, rather than push the world as a whole to those limits. As long as there are nations, and land and global resources are not held in common, I think the problems caused by very high population growth rates in localized regions will impact the world as a whole in a very attenuated form. More people may mean more demand for resources, but it doesn't necessarily mean the ability to obtain those resources. If anything, I'd say that resources are strained more by rising global affluence than by population growth, per se. For instance, China's population is pretty stable, at 0.5% growth rate -- but since a fraction of the existing Chinese population is starting to enjoy a first world lifestyle, that will require serious resources. On the other hand, I'd argue that a 4.2% rate of population growth in Liberia has strictly local implications for misery.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

One really important thing to remember in making a decision about whether to install solar-electric or not: LATITUDE.

In summer at high latitudes, like over 60N or 60S, the Sun's radiation strikes the Earth at a low angle. Even at the summer solstice, give or take a week, at 60N/S, the Sun's radiation strikes the Earth at a solar noon maximum of 90- ( 60-23.5 ) = 53.5 degrees. So the solar constant is reduced accordingly. And then, of course, you have the problem of the atmosphere absorbing the solar radiation which has to travel through a longer distance of atmosphere, plus all of the other problems of the site--- like birds, clouds, trees, humidity, smoke, dust, etc. And at high latitudes, you have the small problem of snow and frost on top of the solar panels, reflecting what little solar radiation that you do receive in high-summer.

The best place for solar panels would be in the tropics or sub-tropics. The rest of the Earth doesn't have as much strong sunlight to capture, especially at high latitudes. The long summer-solstice day at high latitudes is of very little use because of the very weak sunshine, even at solar noon.

Obviously, the best place for solar panels would be in a sub-tropical or tropical, relatively cloud-free desert such as the Sahara Desert or the Arabian Desert.

[lektrode]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

ya know... watching you guys hash this stuff out gets to be quite fascinating

None of the other numbers matter except the 230 watts/hour. If the panels are generating 8 hours a day at this level, then you're getting a total of 1.84 Kwh per day.

i figger it in amphours at 12vdc = appx 80, while the frig needs appx 40-50 on the overnight, so most days theres a surplus, as long as i dont burn it all up (at night, keeping up with all thats happnin on the 'tulip - or running the airconditioner.. )


this i equate to an IRR of appx 20%/year on the appx 3500 invested, in the form of icecubes that i _dont_ have to buy ;)

and NO i dont wanna argue this point - not with you, anyway

While I remember your personal electricity usage is quite low, the average American household requires 30 Kwh per day.

Even for me - my monthly 160 to 190 Kwh usage comes out to 5.25 to 6.25 Kwh per day.

at the house, up in the clouds most of the time, hence not much sen$e in PV in that environment - at least not in my present income bracket - thats about what i'd be using without running the heatpump and the 3rd refrig (tho that ones a 12vdc too) - the issue there gets to be humidity, why the heatpump, plus the added bonus of being able to bring the interior temps down in the aftn, or up, on the chilly mornings (in the 'winter' we'll see 50's)

now if i had the weather that they have on certain other parts of the island (and my income hadnt been crushed by 'saving the banks' and the 'recovery') i quite likely would be putting in a 10kw PV system, with batteries and 'cut the cord' (dump heco/thegrid) and 'save' the .45/khw x 300/mo that i'm forking out, since i believe that we will see at least the 10% annual escalation that we've had over the past 5years, even _without_ the screwball plans for billions in (subsidized) windmills and talk of a $4billion extension cord to send the juice to honolulu - where they are doing a _fabulous_ job of air conditioning the street out in front of all the gold-plate-district boutiques - aka 'rodeo drive' of waikiki (hint: bet if they simply closed the doors we wouldnt _need_ to put windmills on the outer isles)

[Jam]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

One really important thing to remember in making a decision about whether to install solar-electric or not: LATITUDE.

[...]

The best place for solar panels would be in the tropics or sub-tropics. The rest of the Earth doesn't have as much strong sunlight to capture, especially at high latitudes. The long summer-solstice day at high latitudes is of very little use because of the very weak sunshine, even at solar noon.

Obviously, the best place for solar panels would be in a sub-tropical or tropical, relatively cloud-free desert such as the Sahara Desert or the Arabian Desert.

Do I detect a hint of softening Steve's long-standing and often vehement opposition to solar?

[DSpencer]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

... or whether it's more of a peak and less of a plateau.

Actually, I think there's a very good chance that global population will stabilize. But even if some of the developing nations aren't following the trajectory of the developed world, and even if their population growth rates don't drop in the near future, they will individually face local Malthusian limits that eventually curtail their population growth, rather than push the world as a whole to those limits. As long as there are nations, and land and global resources are not held in common, I think the problems caused by very high population growth rates in localized regions will impact the world as a whole in a very attenuated form. More people may mean more demand for resources, but it doesn't necessarily mean the ability to obtain those resources. If anything, I'd say that resources are strained more by rising global affluence than by population growth, per se. For instance, China's population is pretty stable, at 0.5% growth rate -- but since a fraction of the existing Chinese population is starting to enjoy a first world lifestyle, that will require serious resources. On the other hand, I'd argue that a 4.2% rate of population growth in Liberia has strictly local implications for misery.

Very good points.

What percent of the total energy consumed by the avg American is for food or shelter? My guess is it's very low. We may have plenty of resources for feeding, sheltering and clothing 7 billion people. That doesn't mean we can all have 3 cars, a beach house and 5 plasma TV's.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

ya know... watching you guys hash this stuff out gets to be quite fascinating



i figger it in amphours at 12vdc = appx 80, while the frig needs appx 40-50 on the overnight, so most days theres a surplus, as long as i dont burn it all up (at night, keeping up with all thats happnin on the 'tulip - or running the airconditioner.. )


this i equate to an IRR of appx 20%/year on the appx 3500 invested, in the form of icecubes that i _dont_ have to buy ;)

and NO i dont wanna argue this point - not with you, anyway



at the house, up in the clouds most of the time, hence not much sen$e in PV in that environment - at least not in my present income bracket - thats about what i'd be using without running the heatpump and the 3rd refrig (tho that ones a 12vdc too) - the issue there gets to be humidity, why the heatpump, plus the added bonus of being able to bring the interior temps down in the aftn, or up, on the chilly mornings (in the 'winter' we'll see 50's)

now if i had the weather that they have on certain other parts of the island (and my income hadnt been crushed by 'saving the banks' and the 'recovery') i quite likely would be putting in a 10kw PV system, with batteries and 'cut the cord' (dump heco/thegrid) and 'save' the .45/khw x 300/mo that i'm forking out, since i believe that we will see at least the 10% annual escalation that we've had over the past 5years, even _without_ the screwball plans for billions in (subsidized) windmills and talk of a $4billion extension cord to send the juice to honolulu - where they are doing a _fabulous_ job of air conditioning the street out in front of all the gold-plate-district boutiques - aka 'rodeo drive' of waikiki (hint: bet if they simply closed the doors we wouldnt _need_ to put windmills on the outer isles)

Yeah, I'd imagine one of the best spots in the good ol' US are the dry parts of the Hawaiians. Plus at $.45/kWh you must be off the main grid on the island. At that rate, PV is quite sensible (if you're not stuck in permaclouds or vog or something).

Even the diesel generators we have running on the island by me are putting out $.24/kWh electricity (3 times what I'm paying). That looks to me to be about the average for HECO - at least on Oahu.

It does depend on price and environmental conditions (as does so much else in business).

[Starving Steve]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

Do I detect a hint of softening Steve's long-standing and often vehement opposition to solar?

I don't like the economics of solar except in the sub-tropical deserts. Even there, I would check the costs very closely. But if I moved to Mexico and lived in some of the driest deserts there (like east-shore Baja California) then I would probably install solar-electric.

Windmills make sense in eastern Colorado or south-eastern Wyoming near Denver where the wind is always blowing at hurricane velocity. Also, the North Sea in Europe would be a good place for windmills, especially north of Denmark.

Southern Alberta and south-west Saskatchewan would be a good place for windmills--- if there were cities there. The closest cities are Regina and Calgary.

Bottom-line is that certain places are ideal for windmills, but most places are not. Over all, California is definitely NOT the place for windmills. The odd mountain pass in California has a bit of wind nearly every day, but even most mountain passes are calm most of the time..... California is just a bake oven most of the time, and a bake oven without even a breeze

I do like the economics of solar water-heating in sub-tropical deserts. The systems could be simple: One black tank on the roof might heat the water from 65F to 95F, and then the warm water would be drained in early evening into the basement of your house and heated by natural gas (or whatever) from 95F to 125F in a conventional hot water tank..... This system should cut your water heating bill in half, and water heating is very expensive, otherwise. The system would be simple and cheap to build. The drainage would work by gravity with the assistance of a timed drain. One would have to pump the cool water into the roof tank after dawn, but that would be the only on-going expense. One could put the outside tank in your yard if it has good solar exposure, but the warm water would have to be pumped into your basement conventional hot-water tank early in the evening.... In sub-tropical deserts, this would be a great system and quite simple to build. In fact, even the pumping could be done with city water pressure, so no expense whatsoever to you.

Passive solar for heating homes makes sense so long as you have thermal drapes to open and close exactly on-time. Otherwise, passive solar homes are a joke. What you gain in heat during the day is quickly lost back through the windows by late evening. (My brother's solar home is great at losing heat in the evening through its large south-facing windows. )

Being a pragmatist in the tradition of Stalin, I like what works well. Success speaks for itself.

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

Southern Alberta and south-west Saskatchewan would be a good place for windmills--- if there were cities there. The closest cities are Regina and Calgary.

Perhaps you haven't driven by Pincher Creek & Fort MacLeod on the Crowsnest Pass for quite some time then.

Here's an article from your very own Vancouver Sun (5 years ago) ...

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/n...4-49e9225a64fd

Restless prairie winds power Alberta's renewable future

PINCHER CREEK, Alta. -- While British Columbians wait to see if their first wind farms will actually be built, tens of thousands of Albertans are already cooking dinner, drying socks, or lighting their homes and businesses with electrons generated by the restless prairie winds.

It's hard to square with the caricature of an oil-obsessed, red-neck land, but nearly 350 modern windmills -- winged giants that look like children's pinwheels on long, skinny, off-white sticks -- have sprouted near here in southwestern Alberta within the last four or five years, mostly in close-ordered ranks on wind-swept ridges between this town of 3,666 and similar-sized Fort MacLeod a half hour east on Highway 3.
...

People who actually live in real cities like Medicine Hat, Lethbridge, Calgary etc. all get power from these.

I drive by them regularly during fly-fishing season

Alberta wind farm.jpg

[c1ue]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

Perhaps you haven't driven by Pincher Creek & Fort MacLeod on the Crowsnest Pass for quite some time then.

Here's an article from your very own Vancouver Sun (5 years ago) ...

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/n...4-49e9225a64fd



People who actually live in real cities like Medicine Hat, Lethbridge, Calgary etc. all get power from these.

I drive by them regularly during fly-fishing season

[ATTACH]3949[/ATTACH]

Apparently these wind farms are being built to sell electricity to California...

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/techn...387/story.html

EDMONTON - Greengate Power Corp. has placed an order worth about $500 million for 166 Vestas wind turbines for its Blackspring Ridge 1 wind farm near Lethbridge.

The project will have a capacity of 300 megawatts, making it the largest in Canada when it goes into commercial operation in 2013. Construction is expected to start in 2012.

The supply and long-term service and maintenance contract is with Vestas-Canadian Wind Technology, the local arm of the Danish-based global leader in wind turbines.

Calgary-based Greengate also plans to start construction soon on its 150-megawatt Halkirk 1 project east of Stettler, which will be Alberta’s largest wind project until Blackspring opens.

Since the unregulated electricity market in Alberta offers prices too low to make Halkirk and Blackspring economic, both are being built to take advantage of California’s renewable-energy credits program.

Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) said in February it would buy all 450-MW of power for 20 years from the projects, but not take delivery of the power. The electricity will simply flow into the Alberta grid, which is part of the Western continental system.

With the interest shown by PG&E, Greengate was able to raise $14.3 million, largely from three California investment firms — NGEN Partners, SAM Private Equity and the Westly Group, all leading California-based cleantech investors.

At the time of the PG&E deal, Greengate chief executive Dan Balaban said California had been pretty consistent in leading the world in green initiatives and green policy.

“The renewable-portfolio standard requires utilities to source 20 per cent of their power from renewable sources, and that grows to 33 per cent by 2020.”

To meet those new standards, the utilities have to source a significant amount of renewable power.

“California made the decision that it would allow up to 25 per cent of the renewable power to come from out of state. And the discussion has been where the limit will be for out-of-state power, which actually helps keep the cost down for the ratepayers of California because it is more expensive to develop there, so they went out of state for some,” Balaban added.
Greengate hopes to eventually develop 1,550 MW of wind energy projects on 200,000 acres of private land in Alberta.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Rossi "cold fusion" device function confirmed by two Swedish scientists

I agree. But, it does seem like the calculation to make. All else will flow through from this. If we could put management of resources in a per person metric then we will now what to ration and how to optimize our decisions. For instance, we might look at a field of wheat as a much better use of solar energy than a field of solar cells. We fall in love with the money metric but isn't the ultimate currency something based on enabling living? Perhaps, something like a basic living unit (BLU). A mixture of energy, space, and water to support one person per day would be a BLU. For instance questions about the true cost of war and urbana could be answered this way. "It takes a 10000 BLUs to deploy a soldier to central Asia" .vs. "We create 10000000 BLUs by building a arrogation pipeline from British Columbia to Eastern Washingotn" would become the dialogue. If I told you that the world gets 4 trillion BLUs from the Persian Gulf you might consider it a wise decision to defend and preserve that flow. That that kind of thing. A central bank would then become something the validity of the creation of BLUs AND the destruction of such.