Libya/Bahrain: Just an Excerise in Realpolitik?

[don]

You invade Bahrain. We take out Muammar Gaddafi in Libya.

Two diplomatic sources at the United Nations independently confirmed that Hilary Clinton gave the go-ahead for Saudi Arabia to invade Bahrain and crush the pro-democracy movement in their neighbor in exchange for a "yes" vote by the Arab League for a no-fly zone over Libya - the main rationale that led to United Nations Security Council resolution 1973.

The revelation came from two different diplomats, a European and a member of the BRIC group, and was made separately to a US scholar and Asia Times Online. According to diplomatic protocol, their names cannot be disclosed. One of the diplomats said, "This is the reason why we could not support resolution 1973. We were arguing that Libya, Bahrain and Yemen were similar cases, and calling for a fact-finding mission. We maintain our official position that the resolution is not clear, and may be interpreted in a belligerent manner."

As Asia Times Online has reported, a full Arab League endorsement of a no-fly zone is a myth. Of the 22 full members, only 11 were present at the voting. Six of them were Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, the US-supported club of Gulf kingdoms/sheikhdoms, of which Saudi Arabia is the top dog. Syria and Algeria were against it. Saudi Arabia only had to "seduce" three other members to get the vote.

Translation: only nine out of 22 members of the Arab League voted for the no-fly zone. The vote was essentially a House of Saud-led operation.

In the beginning, there was the great 2011 Arab revolt. Then, inexorably, came the US-Saudi counter-revolution.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MD02Ak01.html

[GRG55]

Re: Libya/Bahrain: Just an Excerise in Realpolitik?

A couple of previous posts with an alternate view:


http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...90332#poststop

...As I have posted before, the USA is at once the most important and least dependable ally in this region.

The Shah fell and was exiled, while the Americans were completely surprised that a bunch of students would hold their Embassy employees to hostage [that anyone still listens to Zbigniew Brzezinski, Carter's National Security Advisor at the time, is a complete mystery to me].

Saddam was essential in the 1980's, expendable and hung from a rope two decades later.

In 2009 Hillary Clinton said of Hosni Mubarak: "I really consider President and Mrs. Mubarak to be friends of my family. So I hope to see him often here in Egypt and in the United States.”. I wonder if Bill and Hillary have a bedroom they can spare for them now?

The US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters are not far from my villa. As much as they need the US Navy, how much do you think the Bahrain Ruling Family trusts the support of the USA now?

In a nation where women still can't drive a car legally, after listening to lectures about "democracy" and watching what has gone on in Iraq in the name of democracy, how much do you think the House of Saud is prepared to take advice from the American Administration?

USA influence in the region is waning for reasons that have nothing to do with the rise of China, or competition from Russia. A good deal of the problem is self inflicted.

and...

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...man-in-Bahrain

...I posted once before, the Arabs know full well that the USA is at once the most important and least reliable ally that they have. While representatives from the USA, including Robert Gates, blather on about how the pace of reform in Bahrain "isn't fast enough", I can't help but note that the US experiiment with "rapid reform" in Iraq has failed miserably...

...If the USA thinks dialogue and reforms are going to resolve this, they are more naive than I could ever have imagined. If dialogue and reforms are so effective then maybe those in the USA administration calling for more should ask themselves why does Lebanon keep stumbling from one sectarian crisis to another after so many decades? Bahrain isn't exactly the same situation as Lebanon, but there's a lot of parallels, and the GCC is going to do everything it can to avoid having yet another example in the region. Lebanon and Iraq [thank you Bush Sr. and "W"] are enough.

...When it comes to this sort of crisis the GCC Ruling Families will set aside their differences and close ranks, and that is what just happened. USA influence over this situation just got knocked down a notch or three. They trust each other more than they trust the USA, and after watching the USA response to what has happened in North Africa, if you were the Bahrain Ruling Family..."who you gonna call"?