If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

[EJ]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Sorry for sparse, postings... have been very busy.

A few random comments.

The cherry blossoms are starting.
Downtown Tokyo pretty deserted, but this is Monday of a three day weekend, and I assume anyone who could go somewhere west did so. They might take the rest of the week off, so I guess will have a better idea of what the new normal is come April.
Every single unnecessary thing turned off. Freezing at night, but can get by with the heat off. At least can take a hot bath using gas without using electricity.
Tokyo Electric Company has only half the generating capacity necessary to meet summer peak demand as many conventional power plants were lost in addition to the unbelievable nuclear mess. Will post more on those idiots later. That's what always happens when money trumps what the engineers think and say. The military should have been given control immediately.
Glad I switched to LEDs for apartment last year. Can have apartment reasonably lit for 20 watts.
Gave away as Christmas presents LEDs at $50 a pop in 2009, especially to people I know who do interior construction, and told them oil shocks were coming. Investment paid off, though not for the reason I thought. Heard from them recently that they had entire buildings switched over to LEDs last year. So they have the experience and know what to do now. I think they should sell LEDs at cost now.
Went to a huge evacuation center for people living near the reactor. Was very relieved to see that while of course not a happy situation, there was free food, lots of blankets and clothing, books, toys for the children, and even flowers and musicians giving free concerts outside. Not at all what it was like when I went to a Kobe evacuation center in 1995. The children were running around outside laughing. They are all from the same neighborhood.
It is raining.
The roads are still damaged in Tohoku, so it is difficult for goods to get to people there. Some food is reaching supermarkets in Sendai today. Rail still not running, or tracks completely swept out to sea in some places.
Still going to work, although everything was disrupted all week.

Here in Hong Kong, there is no evidence of any change in the usual bustle of this city. Japan might as well be on the other side of the world.

Friends in the states who have meetings planned in Japan this week are asking me for advice on whether to go. All I can tell them is that under the circumstances I'd certainly go, as risks in Japan are in my view falling not rising, and I'd jump at the opportunity to show solidarity with the Japanese business people I was scheduled to visit. No doubt they will very much appreciate the standout jesture of braving a visit when 95% of business trips to Japan are being canceled due to post quake and nuclear disaster hysteria. In China the hysteria is not unlike the loony west coast iodine tablet and canned food crowd. Paradoxically, those with preparations for a nuclear disaster in San Francisco may find themselves better prepared than their less phobic countrymen for a more real risk, an overdue San Andreas earthquake.

Hopefully, the series of earthquakes that have circled the globe recently skips Taiwan while I'm there starting tomorrow.

[mooncliff]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Here in Hong Kong, there is no evidence of any change in the usual bustle of this city. Japan might as well be on the other side of the world.

Friends in the states who have meetings planned in Japan this week are asking me for advice on whether to go. All I can tell them is that under the circumstances I'd certainly go, as risks in Japan are in my view falling not rising, and I'd jump at the opportunity to show solidarity with the Japanese business people I was scheduled to visit. No doubt they will very much appreciate the standout jesture of braving a visit when 95% of business trips to Japan are being canceled due to post quake and nuclear disaster hysteria. In China the hysteria is not unlike the loony west coast iodine tablet and canned food crowd. Paradoxically, those with preparations for a nuclear disaster in San Francisco may find themselves better prepared than their less phobic countrymen for a more real risk, an overdue San Andreas earthquake.

Hopefully, the series of earthquakes that have circled the globe recently skips Taiwan while I'm there starting tomorrow.

I guess there is no particular risk right now of going to Hokkaido or anywhere from Nagoya to the west.

The risk of an aftershock is falling, I think, but I would not be surprised to have a 7+ in a year somewhere from Tohoku to Shizuoka.
Any hotel constructed in the last 15 years should have been constructed to a much higher earthquake standard.
My seven and a half hour walk through Kobe three days after the quake in 1995 showed a very consistent pattern of new buildings having absolutely zero visible damage, windows and tilework absolutely uncracked, to damaged tile work, to rarely, more serious damage.
However, a building right next door that was say 30 years old or older might be completely destroyed.
Buildings with columns only on the first floor, that is, with a parking garage on the first floor, were sometimes seriously damaged even if new.
Structural columns everywhere have been reinforced with full metal jackets everywhere since.
I would stay below the 10th floor of a hotel if possible in case there is risk of not being able to use the elevator.
Large buildings are less likely to have a natural resonant frequency that would match a quake near Tokyo, I think.

The reactors seem to be under some kind of control now, but of course that could change. Even in event of major radiation release, I think it is the workers and people in the vicinity who are at immediate risk. A radiation release could of course blow directly toward Tokyo, but the wind does not normally blow directly from that direction, and we are quite far away.

The most troublesome things in Tokyo right now are the rolling blackouts (keikaku teiden, "scheduled" "stoppage of electricity") and many businesses being closed.

I would email people with whom one is planning to have a meeting with and ask something very specific such as "Should we have our meeting as scheduled, or should we have it at a later time?" Japanese responses can be infuriatingly vague and invite misunderstandings, but I think a specific question like that should get a clear answer. It is best not to call because having to speak on the phone in English can cause the staff to panic if they are not used to doing so. A lot of the Japanese reserve in business settings is anxiety at having to speak in English and fear of making some kind of mistake. Believe me, in normal life, people in Tokyo are as noisy, drunk, rude, unreasonable, and nosey as anywhere else. They just usually don't behave that way in front of people they don't know. Think about how people behave in church and how inaccurate it would be to think that is how they behave all the time, and I think you will get the picture.

[touchring]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Buildings with columns only on the first floor, that is, with a parking garage on the first floor, were sometimes seriously damaged even if new.

Do you mean buildings with walls on every floor are better off?

[mooncliff]

Re: If you want to see how many quakes there were, and why Tokyo might be spared a mag 8 quake for now

Yes, it seems that the walls stabilize the columns. If you just have columns, they flexed more and were more likely to shear. I saw many buildings with parking on the ground floor with only columns and no walls, in which columns sheared.

Such columns should now have full metal jackets around them or have X-shaped straps between columns to stabilize them.

The Kobe quake was very strange in many ways. It was very shallow and near shore. The mountains reflected the waves and so set up complex interference patterns in Kobe. One block might be thrown up into the air at twice the force of gravity, while the next block might be relatively unscathed. Because Kobe is long and narrow, the mountains blocked access from the north, the ports on the south were all smashed, and the road running east and west was blocked in many places, so access was almost entirely cut off. The electricity and water was working three days after the quake. One of the more notable things was the constant stream of motorcycles. They were the only things that could get through at high speed, so motorcycle club members from all over Japan were going to Osaka and acting as couriers to take medical supplies to Kobe at quite substantial risk to themselves. It was pitch dark along the main roads, and there was dangerous road damage in many places.