11th hour intervention in Libya

[Starving Steve]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

Just looking back at the past few weeks, I am wondering what the Obama Administration was thinking:

1.) Why did the Obama Administration let Mubarack, a loyal ally of America, fall to mobs in the street?
2.) What is the end-game? What was Hillary Clinton thinking? Wishful thinking is a plan?
3.) Why doesn't the Obama Administration cut all funding to the EPA in the U.S.?
4.) Why isn't the U.S. drilling for oil, and I mean DRILLING?
5.) Why did the Obama Administration make a villain out of BP?
6.) Why isn't the Obama Administration importing up-graded heavy oil from the tar sands of Alberta?
7.) What is the near-term energy plan of the Obama bunch?
8.) Why isn't the Obama Administration paving a clear three-year plan for natural gas, atomic power, up-graded oil, and hydro-electric dams? Where is the drilling?
9.) What is the North American energy plan with Canada and Mexico to free America from the grip of the nut-cases in the Middle East?
10.) What about telling Greenpeace and the Sierra Club to go to hell? Draw the line in the sand against the eco-frauds!
11.) Why does the Obama bunch try to even talk with Iran? Why not eliminate that bunch in Iran?
12.) What is the Obama bunch going to do to help King Faisal in Saudi-Arabia? The Obama bunch has put this ally in jeopardy by letting Mubarack fall.

[metalman]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

Once again, that is the fallacy...

The oil will flow, friendly regime or not. And the weapons will be procured regardless of whether the USA has military bases and thousands of people in the region or not.

I fail to see the logic behind the concern about the Chinese military. I have for some years been telling my Gulf Arab business partners that in due course the Chinese Navy is likely to displace the US Navy in the Persian Gulf, just as the US displaced the Royal Navy in the region once it became too expensive for Great Britain to maintain all its unnecessary foreign outposts [it's amazing how the lack of money focusses the thinking on the reality of a situation].

The Persian Gulf exports approximately 18 million barrels of oil a day. Of that roughly 2 million barrels goes to North America, 1 million to Latin America and Africa, 3 million to Europe and 12 million to East Asia [figures from the International Energy Agency]. Tell me again why the US military needs to be in that region to "protect the oil supply"? For whom?

isn't the usa united with arab royal families to ward off a pan-arab islamic state... antagonistic to non-believers... stretching from the atlantic ocean to the arabian sea... funded with $$$ earned from oil sales to asia?

[gnk]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

Oil is fungible. Doesn't matter where you get it. You just need to control it. The Middle East is history's greatest prize. Attach your currency to it, and you control the world. Everyone that uses oil, finances your military. Or so it has been the case. The seams are coming apart, slowly though.

The Middle East hand off between Churchill and FDR was one thing, between cousins, literally and figuratively. A potential future hand off between the US and China? Well, that's not going to be as smooth, if it ever occurs. We're talking a geopolitical earthquake that shatters currencies, global consumption and trading patterns, and the entire global financial system. Hopefully, if such a transition occurs, it is really, really gradual and managed, or more like shared.

[GRG55]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

isn't the usa united with arab royal families to ward off a pan-arab islamic state... antagonistic to non-believers... stretching from the atlantic ocean to the arabian sea... funded with $$$ earned from oil sales to asia?

These are just my personal observations after living in and travelling throughout the region for a decade:

• As I posted some years ago, the dirty little secret in the Middle East is that the majority of the people absolutely hate their governments.
• The grievances are many and range from economic disenfranchisement due to the endemic corruption to the arbitrary application [or waiving] of laws depending on social standing, and everything in between.
• The view being promulgated in our media that people are demonstrating on the streets and risk being shot because they desire the estabishment of political institutions in the western liberal democratic tradition ["pro-democracy"] is absurd.
• The idea that all of these national rulers and ruling families are illegitimate, voiced by both bin Laden [a Sunni] and numerous Shia clerics throughout the region, resonates with a surprising number of "moderate" citizens of the region; even if they don't have a strong belief in a restoration of the caliphate [one Islamic nation] the idea serves as a focal point for anti-government sentiment.
• In our nations of the west we tend to first gain economic power and then use that to exercise influence to gain political power. In the Middle East the process is the reverse; one gains political power first and then uses that to secure economic enrichment. That means any negotiation over "political reforms" has economic ramifications far beyond anything similar reforms would represent in our countries. And that is why I am not particularly optimistic that any of these nations can "reform" themselves in a non-violent way.
• The djinni would appear to be out of Aladdin's lamp now, and much of the MENA region [Middle East and North Africa] seems destined for a lengthy period of volatile social, political and economic instability and uncertainty.

[gnk]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

"Why isn't the U.S. drilling for oil, and I mean DRILLING?"

If all it takes to consume foreign oil is to print your global reserve currency, why would you want to be so stupid to consume an actual finite resource you possess?

You eat off everyone else's plate before you start eating from your own plate. And so we blame it on the eco-nuts. Why? In diplomatic circles it's considered poor taste to tell the truth.

[metalman]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

These are just my personal observations after living in and travelling throughout the region for a decade:

• As I posted some years ago, the dirty little secret in the Middle East is that the majority of the people absolutely hate their governments.
• The grievances are many and range from economic disenfranchisement due to the endemic corruption to the arbitrary application [or waiving] of laws depending on social standing, and everything in between.
• The view being promulgated in our media that people are demonstrating on the streets and risk being shot because they desire the estabishment of political institutions in the western liberal democratic tradition ["pro-democracy"] is absurd.
• The idea that all of these national rulers and ruling families are illegitimate, voiced by both bin Laden [a Sunni] and numerous Shia clerics throughout the region, resonates with a surprising number of "moderate" citizens of the region; even if they don't have a strong belief in a restoration of the caliphate [one Islamic nation] the idea serves as a focal point for anti-government sentiment.
• In our nations of the west we tend to first gain economic power and then use that to exercise influence to gain political power. In the Middle East the process is the reverse; one gains political power first and then uses that to secure economic enrichment. That means any negotiation over "political reforms" has economic ramifications far beyond anything similar reforms would represent in our countries. And that is why I am not particularly optimistic that any of these nations can "reform" themselves in a non-violent way.
• The djinni would appear to be out of Aladdin's lamp now, and much of the MENA region [Middle East and North Africa] seems destined for a lengthy period of volatile social, political and economic instability and uncertainty.

so the oil keeps flowing but the $$$ flows from secular, western, liberal democratic states to government that are enemies of secular, liberal democracy. no wonder obama's on tv pushing a tecii economy agenda...
Obama pushes for oil use reduction, clean fuel technology

[GRG55]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

Oil is fungible. Doesn't matter where you get it. You just need to control it. The Middle East is history's greatest prize. Attach your currency to it, and you control the world. Everyone that uses oil, finances your military. Or so it has been the case. The seams are coming apart, slowly though...

You seem to be making a rather circular argument. On the one hand the military is needed to capture and control "history's greatest prize", a task which apparently is needed to "finance your military, which is needed to capture and control...

Maybe it'd time to consider how to break that dysfunctional daisy chain?

The Middle East hand off between Churchill and FDR was one thing, between cousins, literally and figuratively. A potential future hand off between the US and China? Well, that's not going to be as smooth, if it ever occurs. We're talking a geopolitical earthquake that shatters currencies, global consumption and trading patterns, and the entire global financial system. Hopefully, if such a transition occurs, it is really, really gradual and managed, or more like shared.

Could be this is already underway for reasons other than just the USA and China... and who knows how "gradual, managed or shared" it'll be though...

[GRG55]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

so the oil keeps flowing but the $$$ flows from secular, western, liberal democratic states to government that are enemies of secular, liberal democracy. no wonder obama's on tv pushing a tecii economy agenda...
Obama pushes for oil use reduction, clean fuel technology

The "governments" aren't enemies of secular, liberal democracies...they just don't want any of that inside their national borders as it would cut in on their action. Some years ago a friend of mine, the President of a global energy consulting firm, told me their estimate was that it took 40% of the national income of Saudi Arabia to support the princes in the Al Saud clan. Of course at that time we didn't know that "God's work" ordained that 40% of the national income of your country should go to Lloyd and Jamie, so perhaps this isn't such a shocking statistic any more :-)

As we all know, and EJ has written about at length, one of the best things the USA could do for its economy and citizens is get off the imported oil intravenous feed.

[flintlock]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

Posted by GRG55

That is the fallacy...that the RoW needs to intervene to keep the oil flowing.

The oil will flow no matter what. If the world wants oil it does not need to send its youngsters to die in foreign deserts to get it.

Are you saying the oil will continue to flow because it is in the best interests of the oil producing states, regardless of who is in charge? Because that is what I've suspected was the case all along. Most of these countries can't last long without that income if I'm not mistaken. What we have going down in Libya now could be a worst case scenario if keeping the oil flowing is the goal. Because I see a stalemate becoming more likely. Libya is no big deal but what happens if the same thing goes down in other states?

In other news,

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110402/wl_nm/us_libya

EAST OF BREGA/BENGHAZI, Libya (Reuters) – A NATO-led air strike killed 13 Libyan rebels, a rebel spokesman said on Saturday, but their leaders called for continued raids on Muammar Gaddafi's forces despite the "regrettable incident."

This is inevitable given the situation. Probably has happened more than once. How the heck do you fight Qaddafi from 5000 feet without boots on the ground?

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
America at Not-War - Libyan Rebel Forces
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor & Satire Blog The Daily Show on Facebook

[GRG55]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

Are you saying the oil will continue to flow because it is in the best interests of the oil producing states, regardless of who is in charge?

...

Greed is universal. Within that observation there are two specific reasons oil will flow.

First, it is in the interests of whomever holds political power in those jurisdictions. Even Hugo Chavez has figured out he cannot survive for long without the revenues from oil. There is not one single OPEC nation that can legitimately claim to have a proper, efficient, functional economy. All of them are overdependent on that one resource endowment, and only Kuwait and Qatar with their tiny populations have escaped chronic high unemployment. Chavez and his counterparts need that revenue to keep buying their supporters and to sprinkle enough around the population, à la Saudi Arabia, to keep them off the streets.

Second, the oil industry is incredibly capital intensive. Take a major extraction project in any other resource sector...mining, forestry, whatever...multiply the numbers by ten and that might get you close to a typical international oil project. Go offshore and the numbers are even larger. Those sorts of contracts allow a much higher level of "fees" to be layered on to them. For those at the very top of the political totem pole in oil exporting jurisdictions, Ministers, Presidential advisors, their families and so forth, the opportunity for personal enrichment from the endemic corruption exceeds even that which can be gained from arranging armaments contracts or large commercial aircraft orders. The contracts will flow, and so will the oil - ironically enough the biggest impediment in these situations is the contract issuance is delayed, or repeatedly cancelled and renegotiated, because of arguments within the host country power structure as to who gets to cut up the cash...

For those that think the tap can be turned off as during the infamous Yom Kipper war embargo, this isn't 1973 any more. Twice in 3 years Iran has kept the oil flowing even when it could not sell all it was producing:

Iran Doubles Oil Stored in Tankers

May 2, 2008 11:40 EDT

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Iran, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, more than doubled the amount stored in tankers idling in the Persian Gulf, sending ship prices higher as demand for some of its crude fell, people familiar with the situation said.

The 10 tankers hold at least 20 million barrels of oil, equal to about 5 days of the country's output, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn't public. Rates for tankers have more than tripled since April 8, based on data from the Baltic Exchange and ship-fuel prices.

While oil rose to a record $119.93 a barrel on April 28, Iran has a glut of its sulfur-rich crude as refineries that can process the fuel shut down for maintenance...

Iran Hoarding Oil At Sea Because They Can't Sell It

Apr. 17, 2010, 10:45 AM

Iran, the world's fifth-largest oil producing nation, is increasing the amount of oil is stores in tankers at sea.

Iranian officials say this is due to refinery overhauls and seasonality, but some industry players believe it's due to an inability to sell all of their production right now...

...Much of Iran's crude is heavy and has a high sulphur content, making it harder and more expensive for refiners to convert it into valued transport fuels. "One theory is they are having trouble selling the cargo," a shipping source said. "It could be due to lack of demand for some heavy Iranian crude."

There is some limit to world oil demand right now, despite the price strength oil has exhibited and the global economy rebound.

[c1ue]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

As we all know, and EJ has written about at length, one of the best things the USA could do for its economy and citizens is get off the imported oil intravenous feed.

I agree the goal of reducing dependence on oil imports is a fine one, but I don't agree that it is worth empoverishing most of the US population in order to do so.

A big first step would be destroying the home builder/local real estate zoning/bankster dynamic.

A second big step would be adding incentives for increased density - to build on the removal of the above named incentive for decreased density.

A third big step would be progressive energy taxation - not the present regressive ones planned.

These as opposed to stop gap, pocket lining, can kicking initiatives like EV/PV/wind/ethanol.

[c1ue]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

Another source now repeats the claim that there are 1 million sub-Saharan guest workers in Libya:

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth...291705627.html

"There's certainly evidence that Algeria sent pilots in before the no-fly zone and provided military transporters to move people, possibly mercenaries, maybe even equipment… but it is difficult to get them into the country," explains Jeremy Keenan, a professor specialising in the Maghreb who suggests that between 5,000 and 10,000 mercenaries may have entered Libya during this uprising, but that there is no concrete evidence.

"If you've got a million migrants milling around in Libya, mostly from sub-Saharan Africa, all paperless with no ID, I suspect he's using them, not Libyans, as human shields… the key thing is he (Gaddafi) has got them over a barrel, they can't leave," said Keenan. "I think the opposition people, when they bump into anyone fighting against them who is speaking another language and looks black, irrespective of how they got into Gaddafi's hands, they are using the word mercenary. There is a lot of confusion there."

Gaddafi has supported past Tuareg rebellions and allegedly backed candidates in recent elections in Niger, who may be beholden to support him.

The al-Jazeera article talks about some of these migrants being forced to fight for Qaddafi, but then again, if he offered to pay $300-$1000/day for soldiers - is it so unlikely that some would choose to fight? And are they 'mercenaries' if they already were living and working in Libya?

As usual, reality isn't so black and white (no pun intended).

[c1ue]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

Maybe Libya is all about the oil...just not in the way you think.

Maybe it is just about the rebels wanting control of the oil for themselves...

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetaile...ed/Oil/8774507

Libya's rebel-led National Transitional Council has reduced the flow of crude oil from fields under its control to storage tanks in the port of Tobruk by 75% with no word as to when they will be able to sell a second cargo of crude oil, a source at the 20,000 b/d Tobruk refinery said Monday.

The source did not say how much crude oil was still being held in storage at the Mediterranean oil terminal of Marsa El Hariga near Tobruk. The terminal has 4 million barrels of oil storage capacity of which 3 million barrels is usable.

"It takes 15 days to fill the tank farms for one shipment," the source said. "They have reduced the inflow of crude into the tank farms...We don't want to fill them up quickly until we know when the vessel is coming so we won't be stuck with an overflow."

He added that the pumping rate, which had been running at around 100,000-120,000 b/d previously, had been reduced from eastern fields but he gave no pumping rates.

"At the same time we reduced the original pumping rate by 75% so there will still be crude being pumped in the pipelines since if we stop wax will build up," the source said.

Libyan rebels operating a transitional government out of the eastern city of Benghazi sold their first crude oil cargo out of Marsa El Hariga on April 6 when the Equator, a Suezmax tanker chartered by Vitol, loaded a cargo of Sarir/Mesla blend crude oil. The tanker loaded 130,000 mt of crude.

The National Transitional Council said it has concluded a deal with Qatar to market crude oil on its behalf to generate revenue to meet humanitarian needs of Libyans in areas under rebel control.

It was the first such oil sale by the rebels since the start of the insurrection against Libyan leader Moammar Qadhafi on February 17. The state-owned National Oil Company based in Tripoli has threatened legal action against any company that deals with the rebels.

There has been no word as to when the rebels expect to sell a second cargo with officials wary of revealing their plans for fear that Qadhafi loyalists will attack oil fields operated by former NOC subsidiaries that have defected to the rebel side.

Qadhafi's militias last week attacked the Sarir field, Libya's biggest, in an effort to prevent the rebels from exporting more oil.

A petroleum engineer at Tobruk said the government troops attacked power lines feeding the Sarir oil field, forcing a halt in production. Earlier reports had suggested that the attack knocked out the export pipeline to Tobruk but the source said the pipeline was intact.

There have been conflicting reports about the status of oil production from Sarir, Libya's biggest oil field. The Qadhafi government accused UK war planes of bombing the field and the pipeline while the rebels said Qadhafi's militias had bombed the installations.

Sarir, which contains an estimated 12 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, is operated by the Arabian Gulf Oil Co., which broke away from the National Oil Company and is now operated by Libyan rebels. The field lies in the prolific eastern Sirte Basin, home to 37 billion barrels of Libyan reserves, roughly 80% of total reserves, estimated at 47 billion barrels.

The rebels have said the two fields were producing 100,000-120,000 b/d of crude oil, less than half normal output. Sarir and the nearby Nafoora oil field were producing 340,000 b/d before the crisis.

The rebel newspaper Libya al-Youm reported April 7 that Qadhafi's brigades had attacked another oil field, 103 Kilo, near the southeastern town of Ougela. It said the field was operated by the Zueitina Oil Company, which accounted for some 70,000 b/d of Libyan output.

Libya, an OPEC oil producer and exporter, has the biggest oil reserves in Africa with the largest oil fields located in the now rebel-led eastern provinces. Tripoli relied on oil sales to generate 95% of export revenue.

Qadhafi, whose 41-year regime is now being challenged by an armed insurrection, has threatened to turn the country into a hell for aggressors and vowed to fight to the end to preserve his legacy.

Libya was producing an average 1.6 million b/d of crude oil before the current crisis began February 17, and exporting 1.3 million b/d of high quality light sweet crude oil, mainly to the European market.

[flintlock]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

I have little doubt this "rebellion" is as much about power and money as anything else. One crony replaces another, puts his friends in positions where they can profit. You can't blame people for trying to improve their lot. The fact there are leaders who'll use them for their own personal gain is a tale as old as time.

[don]

Re: 11th hour intervention in Libya

you have to wade through the smarmy BS but the weapons insight is interesting.

(hey, we just added an Epson pro-line printer to the studio. Where's the instructor? There was none in the box.)