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  • A Brite Future?

    They shaved her head.

    She was torn between Jupiter and Apollo.

    A messenger arrived with a black nightingale.

    I seen her on the stairs and I couldn't help but follow,

    Follow her down past the fountain where they lifted her veil.

    (Dylan "Changing of the Guard)


    What to Expect: X-Ray Vision, Doubled Life Spans and Lots of Robots

    By DWIGHTGARNER

    PHYSICS OF THE FUTURE


    How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100


    By Michio Kaku
    Illustrated. 389 pages. Doubleday. $28.95.

    “Dull” and “charmless” are awfully harsh words to apply to Michio Kaku’s “Physics of the Future,” a book that examines, with exhaustive pluck, what life might be like at the end of the current century. But they’re the first words that popped into my mouth when a stranger asked me, in a coffee shop, “How’s the book?”

    Mr. Kaku is a quantum physicist, a founder of string field theory and the host of an appealing show on the Science Channel called “Sci Fi Science.” He’s a smart human who in the course of compiling this book became an even smarter one: he interviewed more than 300 scientists who are performing forward-looking work in areas like computers, medicine, nanotechnology, space exploration and energy production.

    A lot of the information Mr. Kaku rounds up and dispenses in “Physics of the Future” won’t be new to people who’ve kept up with the work of Ray Kurzweil and other futurists. Yet it’s eye-popping. We’ll have X-ray vision and space elevators and live at least twice as long and be able to move things, perhaps even martinis, with our minds. We’ll go online, thanks to wired contact lenses, by blinking.

    “We will view chemotherapy,” he writes, “like we view leeches of the past century.” We’ll watch televised football games, if we wish, as if from the 50-yard line.

    “Micromachines smaller than the period at the end of this sentence,” he declares, will perform surgery. Next stop, as Rod Serling used to declare suavely, the Twilight Zone.

    This is not boring stuff, and it all somewhat makes me wish that I (born in 1965) were going to be around to witness it all. In terms of data delivery, “Physics of the Future” gets the job done. But airplane food gets the job done, too, and airplane food — bland and damp — is what Mr. Kaku’s prose too often resembles.

    “Physics of the Future” has few sentences so bad that you can tweezer them, like splinters from your toe, and put them on display. But there’s barely an original turn of phrase in the book’s nearly 400 pages.

    Clichés pile up. Sometimes two or three fight it out in the same sentence. One example: “Like a kid in a candy store, he delights in delving into uncharted territory, making breakthroughs in a wide range of hot-button topics.” This kind of thing, if you are accustomed to real writing, hurts your insides.

    Mr. Kaku thinks in numbers better than he thinks in words, which is a problem only in that he’s written a book and not a series of equations. His voice has an androidlike, take-me-to-your-leader tone. Describing the pleasure we get in watching Snooki or Regis or Morley or Oprah, he writes: “We love to watch others and even sit for hours in front of a TV, endlessly watching the antics of our fellow humans.”

    Such textureless prose inadvertently illustrates one of his key observations about computers: that they will, in the near future, be able to perform repetitive tasks for us, like doing the dishes or walking the dog. But they will not be able to tell meaningful stories or create art.

    Word geek roughs up math geek: that’s this review so far, approaching overkill. “Physics of the Future,” let me add, has the ability to surprise and enthrall and frighten as well.

    Mr. Kaku probes the future of medicine. Our toilets will check our excretions for telltale signs of disease, he suggests. M.R.I. machines will be the size of cellphones; you might keep one at home. Sensors in our clothes will leap into action if we are hurt.

    “In the future,” he writes, hauntingly, “it will be difficult to die alone.”

    Nearly everything we touch will be connected to the Internet; we may not need laptops any longer. We may even have “scrap computers” the way we have scrap paper now.

    Our zoos will most likely fill with animals that are now extinct. We might be able to bring back the Neanderthal. Mr. Kaku is alert to ethical implications. He quotes Richard Klein, an anthropologist at Stanford, about Neanderthals: “Are you going to put them in Harvard or in a zoo?”

    Mr. Kaku suggests that we will have replicators, or molecular assemblers, capable of creating almost anything we want, the same way that nature can “take hamburgers and vegetables and turn them into a baby.”

    This book’s dark aspects pool around its margins. The author fears that Silicon Valley may become a rust belt, upending the economy, because computer chips will no longer be able to grow smaller. The postsilicon era is unknowable.

    He notes that many of our technological leaps — from the global positioning system (GPS) to the Internet itself — have come from the military. He looks forward to genial robots. He is less sanguine about the robots that are “specifically designed to hunt, track and kill humans” and about what might happen should they fall into the wrong hands or go berserk.

    Global warming will be quite real, he suggests, and predicts that by the end of the century, several major American cities will be underwater and that others (including New York) will be surrounded by looming seawalls. The futurist in him even fears more Islamic terrorists, “who would prefer to go back a millennium, to the 11th century, rather than live in the 21st century.”

    We will probably discover signs of intelligent life in the cosmos during this century, Mr. Kaku surmises. But “Physics of the Future” makes Earth seem like a very lonely planet, hurtling toward a destiny both exhilarating and dire.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/bo...html?ref=books

  • #2
    Re: A Brite Future?

    Some of this is like Ray Kurzweil's singularity concept; some of it like an old "land of tomorrow " film strip.
    I hope Ray is right and I live to be 200. But in 1964 I was assured I'd have a personal jet pack by now and I'd like to register a complaint about not receiving it.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: A Brite Future?

      Originally posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post
      Some of this is like Ray Kurzweil's singularity concept; some of it like an old "land of tomorrow " film strip.
      I hope Ray is right and I live to be 200. But in 1964 I was assured I'd have a personal jet pack by now and I'd like to register a complaint about not receiving it.
      Yeah....I'm in on a class action lawsuit for that.

      I wish I had not read Popular Mechanics as a kid.......I feel like I'm in my own personal GroundHog Day Hell......every couple of years they roll out that lemon Moller Flying Car in the media....and it's always just about almost ready but not quite for production every year or two for the last 30-40 years.

      That scam's been running longer than the FIRE economy

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: A Brite Future?

        Originally posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post
        Some of this is like Ray Kurzweil's singularity concept; some of it like an old "land of tomorrow " film strip.
        I hope Ray is right and I live to be 200. But in 1964 I was assured I'd have a personal jet pack by now and I'd like to register a complaint about not receiving it.
        thrifty, you'd probably enjoy this piece on kurzweil's singularity
        http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=346

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: A Brite Future?

          Originally posted by thriftyandboringinohio View Post
          Some of this is like Ray Kurzweil's singularity concept; some of it like an old "land of tomorrow " film strip.
          I hope Ray is right and I live to be 200. But in 1964 I was assured I'd have a personal jet pack by now and I'd like to register a complaint about not receiving it.
          Exactly. I view any futurist statement saying that we'll live to be 200 years old or that humanity will 'evolve' with ire.

          Ramesses II lived to be 91 over 3000 years ago. The human lifespan has never changed. Fewer die at younger ages now, and that is the only driver of 'average lifespan,' that is believed to be ever-increasing.

          People can become believers in the biomedical equivalents of Ponce de Leon if they want. I remain skeptical.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: A Brite Future?

            Yeah....I'm in on a class action lawsuit for that.
            Kaku is kookoo.

            The problem with the technotopians is that they ignore the unpleasant realities.

            The reason we don't have jet packs, and we won't ever barring a bizarre James Bond situation, is energy.

            If you're going from horse buggy to Model T to jet airplanes in a single person's lifetime, it is easy to linearly extrapolate to jet packs and Jetsons. But the physics of energy, as well as the complications of control systems in a 3D environment, militate against this possibility.

            The technotopians all uniformly assume a magical increase in energy supply to go along with other technology, equally a magical increase in productivity.

            Nanobots, for example, are exactly like alchemy in the Dark Ages: with the right ingredients, you can do anything. Design, control (both in doing and in preventing from doing), energy supply, manufacturing, etc etc are all sublimated by the concept of once you get one, you can have as many as you want.

            We have other examples of how this has failed: fusion power.

            Despite millenia of a fusion powered ball in our sky every day, fusion power continues to be "just a few years" away.

            Equally in the medical sciences: it may well be possible to extend human life beyond the present 90-ish years.

            But if you're already 40, you're already f***ed. Any technologies which would extend life - barring magic/nanobots - is going to primarily work in someone younger by slowing down the aging process.

            If you're already old, too damn bad.

            The alternative is replacements - but as any gerontologist will tell you: it isn't that things break down (they do), it is that they all break down at once.

            To quote Old Man's War:

            The problem with aging is not that it's one damn thing after another - it's every damn thing, all at once, all the time.

            ...

            Get a new lung, and your heart blows a valve. Get a new valve, and your liver swells up to the size of an inflatable kiddie pool. Change out your liver, a stroke gives you a whack. That's aging's trump card, they still can't replace brains.
            And this is assuming 100% available, affordable, and successful transplantation/organ replacement technology.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: A Brite Future?

              Why is this subject not only evergreen but given wide reviewing distribution? Despite being nearly always hokum.

              Apparently it always has an audience (the young?). Is that it, period? Is it a basic ingredient of pop culture?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: A Brite Future?

                Originally posted by don
                Why is this subject not only evergreen but given wide reviewing distribution? Despite being nearly always hokum.

                Apparently it always has an audience (the young?). Is that it, period? Is it a basic ingredient of pop culture?
                Because a bright future always sounds nicer than one less bright.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: A Brite Future?

                  Originally posted by don View Post
                  Why is this subject not only evergreen but given wide reviewing distribution? Despite being nearly always hokum.

                  Apparently it always has an audience (the young?). Is that it, period? Is it a basic ingredient of pop culture?
                  I think it's pretty universal to wish / dream for a "better" life. Different elements of futurism appeal to different audiences. Younger people may be more interested in future technologies that promise to make life more exciting, while older people are interested in technologies that would extend lifespan and improve the quality of life in later years (medical tech, etc). Everyone likes the idea of technologies which could remove or reduce the mundane. We may not all have the same vision of utopia, but I think nearly everyone daydreams about their hypothetical perfect world.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: A Brite Future?

                    Originally posted by dcarrigg View Post
                    People can become believers in the biomedical equivalents of Ponce de Leon if they want. I remain skeptical.
                    I've taken the other side of that bet.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: A Brite Future?

                      "Clichés pile up. Sometimes two or three fight it out in the same sentence. One example: “Like a kid in a candy store, he delights in delving into uncharted territory, making breakthroughs in a wide range of hot-button topics.” This kind of thing, if you are accustomed to real writing, hurts your insides."

                      +

                      Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                      ...The technotopians all uniformly assume a magical increase in energy supply to go along with other technology, equally a magical increase in productivity....But if you're already 40, you're already f***ed. Any technologies which would extend life - barring magic/nanobots - is going to primarily work in someone younger by slowing down the aging process...
                      =

                      "Au contraire!" exclaims the technotopian, strapping telemeres to the rack & turning the screw: the ghost of (xmas) futures crying out in pain as Dorian reverts without ever having dyed at all.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: A Brite Future?

                        Originally posted by housingcrashsurvivor
                        "Au contraire!" exclaims the technotopian, strapping telemeres to the rack & turning the screw: the ghost of (xmas) futures crying out in pain as Dorian reverts without ever having dyed at all.
                        That's the dream - of extending telomere lengths or whatever other magical crap in order to reverse aging.

                        But there are cells which already do that. They're called cancer.

                        Mucking around with telomeres and what not is playing with fire.

                        If someone succeeds, that's great.

                        It is far more likely, and easy, to simply slow down the aging process - i.e. reduce telomere length reduction or whatever.

                        The analogy is like a used car in which you cannot replace all the parts. You can try to shove in nanobots to reverse wear and tear, or you can just take far better care of the car via service, maintenance, and better filters/lubricants.

                        Both are possible, but one is far easier than the other.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: A Brite Future?

                          Henry Miller, in his later years, while living in Big Sur, felt it was important to change his oil every couple of months. Fortunately for Hank, there was an abundant number of young accolades about to facilitate the service.

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