Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

[Glenn Black]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

Risk OFF, USD/JPY ON!

Yes, this will be either NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) &/or NIMW (Not In My World), so it's the final death to the nuclear industry.

Wait, there's more. Then the public will learn that there is no choice other than electricity at a cost you cannot afford, or sit in the dark. You will freeze in winter, &/or boil in summer.

In addition, demand charges will be implemented for everybody, not just large industrial users (ie. max. rate of electricity flow at any 15 min. period during the month or year will set the $/kW-hr multiplier for that entire billing period. One moment of indiscretion, and you get a whopping bill for a long time into the future. This will occur to ensure steady electrical loads by customers, reducing the huge stand-by generating capacity currently required & which can no longer be afforded.

Coal fired generation may be converted to natural gas. Politicians and other will say, "We'd like to do more, but this is 'as green as we can afford' for now".

In the end, this is another nail into the coffins of both the consumers and the industrial electricity customers. The economy gets flushed down the toilet once again. Double dip, here we come....

[wayiwalk]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

Hopefully, also the end of the long historical trend of people living in shoreline cities that may be subjected to tsanmi's and hurricanes.

Rational man. Not.

[flintlock]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

Hey, all they are asking for is cheap, clean, and safe energy. Its not like they are asking for a miracle!

Seriously, at some point people will realize that life is never 100% safe and that trade-offs have to happen. Obviously, some locations are better than others for nukes. But it will never be 100% safe. Neither is driving, or sex, or just about anything. My guess is people will choose nukes over freezing to death if they have to. And hopefully, out of all this misery, some serious thought by our leaders will begin be put into how we use and how we get our energy in the future.

[ASH]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

I'm thinking the thing to do is buy stocks and commodities related to support of the nuclear power industry on Monday. The idea is that there's too much installed capacity for the world to shut down existing reactors rapidly (if at all), so demand for nuclear-related support services and fuel should outlast the crisis. On the other hand, one would expect a huge knee-jerk drop in nuclear industry-related share and commodity prices on Monday. I think we should stay away from companies who were trying to get approval to install and operate new capacity, given the likely change in political climate.

Ironically, if the containment holds and minimal radiation leaks from the plant, this could end up being a demonstration that even in one of the worst possible scenarios, the risk was controlled by 40-year-old technology. (I.e. the reactor may be an expensive loss, but no Chernobyl-like ecological disaster from spreading core material in the environs.) Of course, politically, it won't play out that way, so I'm not too sanguine about the future for installing the next generation of plants. But maybe we could make a buck betting on the companies that support existing capacity?

Another angle I just thought of is that if the problems in Japan prompt a huge wave of safety inspections and upgrades on existing capacity, that might also mean a flood of new business for suppliers of nuclear technology and engineering services.

[flintlock]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

I'm wondering where Natural gas fits in. One talking head this am was mentioning that it may have a role in more electricity generation.

[don]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

With reported insider selling/buying as high as 80 to 1, the shearing of the sheeple is clearly at hand. (A 20% "adjustment" is the bandied about number) Has this begun?

[Glenn Black]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

I'm wondering where Natural gas fits in. One talking head this am was mentioning that it may have a role in more electricity generation.

Gas-fired turbine with attached electrical generator, with after burners and heat recovery, system runs at 75% to 82% efficient, provided you have somebody who can use the low grade waste heat (ie. greenhouses, refrigeration systems via LiBr (Lithium Bromide) regeneration. About 33% of fuel's LHV goes to electricity, balance to steam generation & steam turbine & generator; rest to waste heat recovery, feed water heating, etc. Most of Scandinavia use district heating systems.

Another option are micro turbines that generate 60 kW electricity, waste heat at 550 deg F, can be used to run pizza ovens, or waste heat recovery. These units are as big as a kitchen refrigerator, you can daisy chain 100 of them together into a huge system. Also used in many New York City buildings as Con Ed can't supply enough electricity on city grid. 8,000 hrs. MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) which is running 24 hrs/day, 364 days per year, 1 day service inspection, then back to work. See http://microturbine.com/