Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

[Mega]

sorry to be so cold blooded but life (at lest for us) goes on.

I guess Atomic stocks will get knocked...Cameco...French Nuclear stuff...BHP?

Will we see a sell off or a major shift in currancy values?

Your thougts.
Mike

[jtabeb]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

Risk OFF, USD/JPY ON!

[charliebrown]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

Another cold question, is this the death of the nuke industry. Does this put a steak through its heart?
And if this industry is killed, who's going to power my Volt? Nuke was the great hope to provide us with power
for the next 50 years until something else comes along. It this the beginning of the end?

[mooncliff]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

What I guess is that energy conservation companies are gonna boom. LEDs, anything that can get you a similar level of service but at much less energy will be the ONLY way to go starting like yesterday.

My apartment is completely LED now, and I can turn on the equivalent of ten 60watt bulbs, 600 watts of light, for 70 watts. The apartment can be tolerably lit for 20 watts. The light in the toilet is 1 watt and it quite adequate at about 80 lumens.

MacBook is 20 watts. iPad is 3 watts.

It is possible to have a descent standard of living for MUCH less energy.

My air conditioner/heater heat pump is finally after 16 years starting to rattle too much. I used a watt meter and found it is using 10 cents per hour. A new Mitsubishi model will use 6 cents per hour, 2 cents per hour late at night with smart metering, at a Japan rate of 30 cents per kwh. I think it is time to change. That would be 50 cents per day, $15 dollar a month, $45 for heating per year, $45 dollars for cooling per year.

[GRG55]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

Another cold question, is this the death of the nuke industry. Does this put a steak through its heart?
And if this industry is killed, who's going to power my Volt? Nuke was the great hope to provide us with power
for the next 50 years until something else comes along. It this the beginning of the end?

I doubt this is going to deter the French, the Chinese and some others from continuing to rely on nuclear for a significant portion of their future power needs. If there is one country in the world that should have been hyper-sensitive to the potential effects on civilians of a nuclear accident it should have been post-Hiroshima Japan. But that country went ahead and built a number of nuclear power stations. Even in Germany, where the previous government had set a schedule to phase our all nuclear generation, all the talk about shutting down nuclear a few years ago has gone away. It's like spousal abuse syndrome...can't live with them, can't live without them...

Seriously, if one is in the global warming camp what is the alternative to supplement solar and back-up wind powered generation? And if one is not in that camp then coal and natural gas/LNG are the logical choices to supplement solar and wind, but even excluding climate change there are serious potential environmental issues with the sourcing of both coal and natural gas.

[coolhand]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

Here's the one thought that's been going thru my head since I heard the news Fri morning:

1. The Japanese were going to be facing a severe funding crisis & possible hyperinflation as early as 2013 driven by the immutable math of demographics (have to start net selling off bonds (JGBs) to pay pensions, rates go up, every 100bps rate increase = 25% of Japanese gov't revenues...print $ to fund interest expense; wash, rinse, repeat until yen currency crisis.) This was being termed "X-day."

2. The Japanese earthquake & ensuing problems could pull "X-day" forward to the present date, as they are going to need massive amounts of capital to rebuild.

3. The Japanese are the 3rd largest holders of UST's, with I believe around $800B in holdings. The 2nd biggest holder, China, has had flat holdings for the past 2-3 years, & the biggest holder, the US Fed, is allegedly going to stop buying Treasuries after June 30.

In the meantime, the US Treasury will need to continue to issue $125B/mth of Treasuries. So if buyer #1 is out; buyer #2 is out; buyer #3 is now a seller; that leaves the basically the UK & Middle East to buy about $4T in US Treasury issuance over the next 12 months? Not gonna happen.

So IMO, one of the key economic takeaways from the Japanese earthquake is that either QE 3 is a shoo-in & possibly could even be upsized to account for the lack of Japanese purchases or even to offset possible Japanese UST sales, or US interest rates are about to go significantly higher & the US economy is about to have issues.

I was out of the office Friday, but thought it was interesting that US stocks & commodities & gold were down early in the day, but by the end of the day, they were up by 75-100bps, while the USD was down 70bps...my interpretation of those moves were that the market was beginning to bet on the QE 3 option...

[mooncliff]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

Yep, gonna be a mess. But up to now, for the last 20 years, the standard of living here has been progressively better and better.
Tomorrow morning rolling blackouts across Japan because of the nuclear plants being down.

[charliebrown]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

how are you and your family? What is the news on the reactors? Is your popular news media over emotional and hyped like ours? Not to take this incident lightly, but here in the U.S. even the smallest of incidents is blown way out of proportion, to sell media and its hard to take them for in depth and truthful.

How long have you had the LED lights? What is their reliability? CFLs do not last. They say they have a 10,000 hour life, but I think that is the tube. It's usually the electronics in the base that go. That seems to be around 2yrs. LEDs They are still expensive in the U.S. I have replaced all of our night lights with LEDs It was a no brainer. You can buy a 1watt LED for 2.00. It basically pays for itself in a year. Larger lights are expensive, A 60watt incandescent bulb will cost you $30-$40
here not a no brainer.

[mooncliff]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

Everyone is fine in Tokyo, but the people up near Sendai are really suffering. One of my friends is in Sendai, and they got water and electricity back in a day, no gas, no internet, but his iPhone works. Maybe, fingers crossed, train service will start tomorrow morning and people will be able to come south.

The reactors are light water, and so even if they really blow up, it will be bad only in the immediate area, as far as I understand, but I have been too busy to research the matter thoroughly. Have been running around buying essentials and getting things in order. Supermarkets were stripped today. Gasoline shortages. Fortunately, out of fear of inflation, I went to Costco last week and bought a whole bunch of food, so no problem there.

I bought the LEDs a year ago. They were really expensive, but I was testing them in preparation for full roll out. Toshiba, Panasonic, Sharp ones excellent... Mitsubishi ones suck so far. Most of the ones I see on Amazon are bad. Poor lumen output for wattage, expensive.

They LED rollout is starting in the US now. I think I have ones I can recommend... just ordered some... will test and then post. Should have an idea of which ones are decent before the summer.

[jpetr48]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

So IMO, one of the key economic takeaways from the Japanese earthquake is that either QE 3 is a shoo-in & possibly could even be upsized to account for the lack of Japanese purchases or even to offset possible Japanese UST sales, or US interest rates are about to go significantly higher & the US economy is about to have issues.

No doubt on QE3 but only after there is a temporary halt because of political pressure. Then Bernake will say we are monitoring and finding further quant easing is needed. Once again the Fed comes to our rescue.

One other point is there will be significant opportunities to not only charitable give to Japan but also there are and will be good long term investment opportunities (e.g. JOF)-started accumulation Friday

[bill]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/77482.html

BOJ to make 'large' fund injection Monday, Shirakawa says

TOKYO, March 14, Kyodo
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said Sunday the central bank will pump a ''large quantity'' of extra money into the banking system, starting from Monday morning, to help stabilize financial markets following a catastrophic earthquake that struck northeastern Japan.
It is expected that the BOJ will inject at least 1 trillion yen into the short-term market, people familiar with the situation said.
''By watching market conditions, we are planning to supply a large quantity of funds,'' Shirakawa told reporters at the premier's office after attending a meeting on the quake's possible economic impact.
Shirakawa also told reporters that the BOJ will do whatever it can to ensure power outages do not affect the country's bank settlement system.
He said the bank will keep close tabs on the Japanese economy but declined to make specific comments on the economic outlook as its board meeting is scheduled on Monday.
The BOJ's next policy meeting, initially scheduled to be held on Monday and Tuesday, will be shortened to one day in the wake of the Japan's most powerful earthquake on record on Friday.
Shirakawa said the BOJ will discuss the quake's possible impact on the economy in detail during the meeting and he will speak about its views at a subsequent news conference.
Earlier in the day, the Bank of Japan said it has provided a total of 55 billion yen in cash to 13 financial institutions in areas hit by the devastating earthquake.
The central bank said the fund settlement system for major financial institutions is largely working normally following the quake, and that it has received no reports suggesting a major disruption in the system might occur on Monday.
The cash provision was intended to help the 13 banks that operated Saturday and Sunday due to the magnitude 9.0 earthquake, it said.
The BOJ will operate its head office in Tokyo and all branches on Monday as usual, it added.

[lektrode]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

I doubt this is going to deter the French, the Chinese and some others from continuing to rely on nuclear for a significant portion of their future power needs. If there is one country in the world that should have been hyper-sensitive to the potential effects on civilians of a nuclear accident it should have been post-Hiroshima Japan. But that country went ahead and built a number of nuclear power stations. Even in Germany, where the previous government had set a schedule to phase our all nuclear generation, all the talk about shutting down nuclear a few years ago has gone away. It's like spousal abuse syndrome...can't live with them, can't live without them...

right - i was against em (nukes, not wives ;) once upon a time myself = too much economic concentration/monopolization of power gen.
but after watching developments during the past 35 years - since the luddites shutdown construction of the seabrook NH station, and crowed about "just how right we were in 1976" while 'celebrating' the 30th anniv of that in 2006?

how naive, shortsighted they/we all were.

Seriously, if one is in the global warming camp what is the alternative to supplement solar and back-up wind powered generation? And if one is not in that camp then coal and natural gas/LNG are the logical choices to supplement solar and wind, but even excluding climate change there are serious potential environmental issues with the sourcing of both coal and natural gas.

why in 2011, its quite clear now that we dont have any other options going forward(other than giving up vast segments of what constitute/create/maintain most of our "standard of living"), but to start krankin out nuke stations as fast as we can build em: standardized/unitized/modularized

i've made this point before (so i'll save the typing/boordom) but just think how diff things might've been since 1976 if we hadnt been derailed by the envirofacists:

1 - no acid rain
2 - no/lessened coal mining deaths/suffering from black lung disease etc etc etc etc etc
3 - no mtn top strip mining, water pollution
4 - no 'global warming, climate change' or whatevah else they'll be calling it next year
5 - no conversion of whats left of our rapidly dwindling topsoil into corn/ethanol to burn in our cars(insanity defined)
6 - "electricity too cheap to meter" (laffable that, but as one whos paying 40cents/kwh, increasing monthly - "hell YES, its time to glow")

and the Numero Uno/Maximus:

NO ENDLESS WARS IN THE MIDDLE EAST OVER OIL
no islamic whackos forcing us to spend ourselves into financial OBLIVION while allowing the police state to confiscate our privacy, liberty, freedoms for "security"

i could go on and on and on here - but you get my point....

[FondoFinder]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

I am no geologist, but don't the aftershocks appear to be going down towards Tokyo, and perhaps now affecting the Eurasian and Philippine plates? If I were in Tokyo I would high-tail it out of there to higher ground.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak.../10/140_35.php

[jk]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

Here's the one thought that's been going thru my head since I heard the news Fri morning:

1. The Japanese were going to be facing a severe funding crisis & possible hyperinflation as early as 2013 driven by the immutable math of demographics (have to start net selling off bonds (JGBs) to pay pensions, rates go up, every 100bps rate increase = 25% of Japanese gov't revenues...print $ to fund interest expense; wash, rinse, repeat until yen currency crisis.) This was being termed "X-day."

2. The Japanese earthquake & ensuing problems could pull "X-day" forward to the present date, as they are going to need massive amounts of capital to rebuild.

3. The Japanese are the 3rd largest holders of UST's, with I believe around $800B in holdings. The 2nd biggest holder, China, has had flat holdings for the past 2-3 years, & the biggest holder, the US Fed, is allegedly going to stop buying Treasuries after June 30.

In the meantime, the US Treasury will need to continue to issue $125B/mth of Treasuries. So if buyer #1 is out; buyer #2 is out; buyer #3 is now a seller; that leaves the basically the UK & Middle East to buy about $4T in US Treasury issuance over the next 12 months? Not gonna happen.

So IMO, one of the key economic takeaways from the Japanese earthquake is that either QE 3 is a shoo-in & possibly could even be upsized to account for the lack of Japanese purchases or even to offset possible Japanese UST sales, or US interest rates are about to go significantly higher & the US economy is about to have issues.

I was out of the office Friday, but thought it was interesting that US stocks & commodities & gold were down early in the day, but by the end of the day, they were up by 75-100bps, while the USD was down 70bps...my interpretation of those moves were that the market was beginning to bet on the QE 3 option...

This seems right to me. I still think it won't happen for a few months after qe2 ends, though.

[bill]

Re: Ok, so what do we expect to happen with the markets tomorrow?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b08ed982-4...#axzz1GUtDN7af

Bank of Japan plans emergency action

By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo and agencies
Published: March 13 2011 15:41 | Last updated: March 13 2011 23:45

The Bank of Japan has pledged to act quickly to stabilise markets and the bank system when its monetary board meets on Monday.
Masaaki Shirakawa, the central bank governor, said on Sunday that it would provide huge amounts of liquidity to the banking system, reinforcing the authorities’ determination to keep markets stable after the earthquake and tsunami that struck north-eastern Japan last week

The BoJ is likely to provide Y2,000bn-Y3,000bn ($25bn-$37bn) in funds through its market operations today, two to three times the normal amount, to soothe markets and keep short-term borrowing costs from rising, Reuters reports.
Kaoru Yosano, the economics minister, said the government would fight speculative moves and would not tolerate short selling to take advantage of the quake.
“We will monitor market conditions and plan to provide markets with a lot of liquidity first thing,” Mr Shirakawa said, after attending a meeting of cabinet ministers.
The BoJ’s priority is to ensure that banks in the worst-affected regions do not run out of cash. It provided Y55bn over the weekend to financial institutions in quake-struck areas.
Tokyo faces a challenge coming up with funds to finance the rescue and rebuilding efforts that will be required.
Japan’s public debt is approaching 200 per cent of gross domestic product. The government has called for an increase in consumption tax to offset falling revenues.
Tokyo will put together an emergency supplementary budget. Although the central bank has no room to combat deflation by reducing its policy rate, which is at zero, it is likely to signal its readiness to ease monetary policy to ensure that damage from the quake does not threaten the country’s fragile economic recovery.
Takahide Kiuchi, economist at Nomura, said the BoJ was likely to increase its asset-buying programme from about Y5,000bn to Y8,000bn-Y10,000bn. In an attempt to support economic activity, the BoJ has been buying assets, including real estate investment trusts.
The economic effect of the disaster is widely expected to be at least as bad as that from the 1995 Kobe earthquake.
At that time, the government put together emergency spending packages totalling Y3,000bn, Mr Kiuchi noted