Martenson: The Coming Rout

[we_are_toast]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

i'll match my doomer tendencies with anyone's, [ask my wife], but i think that although there will be some disruptions, another excuse for every cb that can to print, and enormous suffering by the immediate victims which will be quickly forgotten by most people, i won't believe people are taking this seriously until they shut down the nuclear plants still operating in [earthquake prone] southern california.

I fully agree. I think Chris is over the top on this one. Bernanke need only extend QE2 by a month or 2 to print enough to cover the damage in Japan. There may be some temporary supply disruptions which might cause a spike in prices for some things. It probably will hit China first so we might get a warning on how bad it might get. One thing that he does make a good point about is the CDS's. I have no idea who's got them and how much they add up to.

I too sold off about 10% of my gold and silver, and will start buying back a little at a time. But I'm mostly interested in establishing a bigger oil, NG, ALT-E, and copper position if the markets come down a lot more.

[Master Shake]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

I was talking to a friend on the West coast whose husband is in the military. I asked her to let me know what the grocery stores were like and when she got back, she said she needed a double martini. She said people were pushing around full carts with their children towing a second cart full of food. From my understanding, the chance radioactivity material reaching the west coast is pretty limited but there are a lot of people out there that don't believe that. First, they went out and bought iodide pills. How many of those people are also going to stock up on food, bottled water and duct tape?

Lunatics.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

U.S. Surgeon General Regina Benjamin said last night stocking up is not an overreaction and it is right to be prepared as a precaution - in contrast to guidance from state officials.

Anbex quickly sold out of a 10,000-strong supply of 14-tablet packages on Saturday.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...radiation.html

[lektrode]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

U.S. Surgeon General Regina Benjamin said last night stocking up is not an overreaction and it is right to be prepared as a precaution - in contrast to guidance from state officials.

Anbex quickly sold out of a 10,000-strong supply of 14-tablet packages on Saturday.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...radiation.html

ok - guess the first question becomes: how will US commerce benefit from the sudden urge by the consumer to 'stockup' (since most seem to live on 'empty' as evidenced by these sorts of events where all of a sudden 'everybody' seems to go all at the same time to the supermarkets and gas stations...

writing as a 'hurricane veteran' i very seldom let my 'stocks' of just about anything ever run below 50% (stock up, buying only when its ON SALE THIS WEEK, SPECIAL/act now rock-bottom price - going into hurricane season and draw down sometime after its over, repeating the cycle annually)

living on an island out in the middle of the pacific will do that to ya...

but seriously, so _some_ industry(ies) should see an uptick due to the unfortunate circumstances of our friends to the west - wouldnt you think?

[EJ]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

U.S. Surgeon General Regina Benjamin said last night stocking up is not an overreaction and it is right to be prepared as a precaution - in contrast to guidance from state officials.

Anbex quickly sold out of a 10,000-strong supply of 14-tablet packages on Saturday.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...radiation.html

I have first hand information about the state of the crisis at the stricken reactor site. The situation is not good. The scenario I told readers about yesterday is that four of the reactors ultimately melt down.

The hysteria here in the US can be explained by the fact that less than 10% of Americans have a passport, and 5% of those who have one have used it in the past year. I doubt half the folks rushing to stock up on food in response to stories about radioactive contamination on the US west coast from the stricken Japanese reactors even know how to find Japan on a map.

I'll be in Hong Kong and Taiwan over the next two weeks, starting tomorrow. I'll be upwind from Japan, as the radioactive plume heads away from me over the Pacific Ocean, and reporting what I hear for subscribers shortly.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

Martenson's point was about the world's 3rd largest economy going into emergency survival mode:

- important and lasting supply disruptions of Japanese components for the world
- Japan not buying another US treasury bond for the foreseeable future
- Japan forced to sell its US treasury holdings at fire-sale prices to raise reconstruction cash

and the downstream effects thereof in the global economy.

[EJ]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

Martenson's point was about the world's 3rd largest economy going into emergency survival mode:

- important and lasting supply disruptions of Japanese components for the world

Depends on what one means by "long lasting." Six to nine months, yes. Years, no.

- Japan not buying another US treasury bond for the foreseeable future

Why not? They don't buy them out of some kind of bank account that they need to use to buy asphalt to re-build highways. They buy US Treasury bonds via double entry bookkeeping.

- Japan forced to sell its US treasury holdings at fire-sale prices to raise reconstruction cash

That's absurd. The only reason for Japan to sell US bonds is to strengthen the yen relative to the dollar, hardly a development they want now.

and the downstream effects thereof in the global economy.

Pure psychodrama. Japan is not going into emergency survival mode nor is Japan going to turn into a third world country. Too many assets, too much capital, too much savings, and its public and private institutions are too resilient.

Has Chris ever been to Japan? I guarantee that after one visit his concerns will dissipate quickly.

Japan has its problems. Every country does. Crisis brings out the best in the Japanese. They are smart, hard working, and tough as nails. They'll be fine.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

Depends on what one means by "long lasting." Six to nine months, yes. Years, no.



Why not? They don't buy them out of some kind of bank account that they need to use to buy asphalt to re-build highways. They buy US Treasury bonds via double entry bookkeeping.


That's absurd. The only reason for Japan to sell US bonds is to strengthen the yen relative to the dollar, hardly a development they want now.



Pure psychodrama. Japan is not going into emergency survival mode nor is Japan going to turn into a third world country. Too many assets, too much capital, too much savings, and its public and private institutions are too resilient.

Has Chris ever been to Japan? I guarantee that after one visit his concerns will dissipate quickly.

Japan has its problems. Every country does. Crisis brings out the best in the Japanese. They are smart, hard working, and tough as nails. They'll be fine.

Thanks for the swift reply on-point EJ.
Good to hear a rational counter argument.

[Master Shake]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

U.S. Surgeon General Regina Benjamin said last night stocking up is not an overreaction and it is right to be prepared as a precaution - in contrast to guidance from state officials.

Anbex quickly sold out of a 10,000-strong supply of 14-tablet packages on Saturday.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...radiation.html

Another sterling Obama appointee.

Are We Not Men?

We are DEVO!

The behavior of the populace and our elected officials is really making the case for De-evolution.

[Master Shake]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

Depends on what one means by "long lasting." Six to nine months, yes. Years, no.



Why not? They don't buy them out of some kind of bank account that they need to use to buy asphalt to re-build highways. They buy US Treasury bonds via double entry bookkeeping.


That's absurd. The only reason for Japan to sell US bonds is to strengthen the yen relative to the dollar, hardly a development they want now.



Pure psychodrama. Japan is not going into emergency survival mode nor is Japan going to turn into a third world country. Too many assets, too much capital, too much savings, and its public and private institutions are too resilient.

Has Chris ever been to Japan? I guarantee that after one visit his concerns will dissipate quickly.

Japan has its problems. Every country does. Crisis brings out the best in the Japanese. They are smart, hard working, and tough as nails. They'll be fine.

C.H. Smith shares your rational views.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar11/...tives3-11.html

[touchring]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

I'll be in Hong Kong and Taiwan over the next two weeks, starting tomorrow.

You may want to look out for earthquakes.

Nowadays, Quakes are contagious, the likelihood of large quakes hitting Taiwan and China over the next two or three years. China especially is due for a big one, the Tangshan earthquake that killed half a million people was 35 years ago.

China is especially dangerous, buildings are not built to withstand large earthquakes, they will just collapse. The 1976 Tangshan earthquake killed half the city population. Since then, no major China city has been hit by an earthquake. If it were to happen today, the fatalities we'll be looking at won't be like ten thousand as in the case of Japan, but hundreds of thousands if not millions.

[dropthatcash]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

how does that one go?

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. ..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikiquote:John_Maynard_Keynes


http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speech...1/fs110307.cfm

The markets are only irrational to those, who like 'SIR' Maynard Keynes, are ALWAYS on the loosing side of the trade.

"It's not my fault I'm loosing on XYZ, it's those damn markets that are wrong!!!"

[flintlock]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

This week I heard consumer talk radio host Clark Howard talking about Japan selling their US treasuries to finance the rebuilding. Sell to who?

[flintlock]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

PEOPLE are irrational. Unfortunately they also make up the market.

[dropthatcash]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

PEOPLE are irrational. Unfortunately they also make up the market.

Someday when your done giving your money away, you'll realize that the market is always right. This is not the same thing as the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
I'd elaberate but it'd waste both our time and my patience as you're not yet ready to learn.