Martenson: The Coming Rout

[metalman]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

I prefer reading a variety of sources, deciding who and what is credible or not, and acting basing my decision on the totality of the information. No one person or website has all the answers.

yeh, i'm with you on that. we got something special here, tho, don't we? this ain't janszen.com. it's our place. i'm thinking of shiny. can you imagine? your life partner taken out by a shit driver.

[charliebrown]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

i'll third that. I gave up reading zero hedge. all doom all the time and too much vulgarity. I still read some martenson when it it free, puplava, hussman, gleason. All have similar shades of itulip. I don't know if its my nature to be a doomer, or the doomer scenario just makes the most rational sense. In taleb's writings, debt = risk. collectively we are all going deeper into debt, i.e. more risk. itulip is the only site I pay for. I can only justify one subscription and this is the best site. I really like the comments just as much as EJ's material.

As for understanding economics I only have a narrow grasp too, but I think a lot of it is common sense. Think about if you were running a small company or your house hold. what are the inputs, outputs, risks, capital, cash flow needs etc. Bring it down to that level and you can understand a lot. A lot of the really complicated and technical stuff is not fundamental and probably not real accurate anyway.

Look at the example someone posted the other day with the 1964 silver quarter and a gallon of gas. Simple but profound.

[Master Shake]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

yeh, i'm with you on that. we got something special here, tho, don't we? this ain't janszen.com. it's our place. i'm thinking of shiny. can you imagine? your life partner taken out by a shit driver.

That's true. This August, my wife and I will celibrate our 29th anniversary. I can't imagine losing her, especially like that.

[Master Shake]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

Hey, Charlie, I'm the quarter guy. It was simple, but I'm not sure how profound.

[charliebrown]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

it is Mr Shake. So many times people measure their worth in nominal dollars. Especially stock market gains.
I know the gvt does to our detriment, but that is another thread. All gains really need to be expressed in purchasing power.

[lektrode]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

First of all, the 'market' in the sense of the US economy clearly hasn't benefited much, if at all, from QE1 and QE2.

CLEARLY!
if it had 'worked' ? my biz (yachts, for the "working class" <= 60feet or so) would be pumpin (like it was after 2001, thru 07; 3rd week in oct07, to be precise; when the 2nd great depression got underway... there was a bit of an uptick upto about may10, but zilch then -boatguys in CA & WA confirm, but ones mileage may vary...)

So to say that the 'evidence' has changed - this is ludicrous. Housing continues to fall, durable goods are still at multi-decade lows, car sales, commercial lending, credit card loans, home loans, etc etc all point to a bad situation. Only student loans are still growing - and that can be easily seen as a desperation metric for the un- and under-employed combined with a government gravy train.

right - when the gig one has been paying the rent with no longer works and one can "go back to school" (on somebody elses dime/borrowed money) is available... well.... lets just say theres LOTS of new 'students'... who likely dont get counted anymore as the 'unemployed' )

The 'market' as Martenson apparently defines it is actually FIRE. But Martenson doesn't say so - he (deliberately or otherwise) conflates TBTF banks with the entire stock market.

So whether it is because Martenson is stupid (i.e. doesn't get FIRE) or is a shill - frankly what difference does it make?

not much, apparently.

There is a fundamental basis missing in his 'analysis'.

To say that the 'market' will crash because the Fed doesn't QE3 is to conflate the TBTF banks/FIRE with the market, and the market with the economy.

Wrong.

oh Mr c1ue - you've done it again!
(cut right thru & summed it up)

[lektrode]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

....many of us *lost* money either shorting or buying puts in preparation for a second crash. I think that is still in the cards but many of us including EJ IMHO completely misread how willing the Fed was to dump money on the markets beyond all reason.

how does that one go?

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. ..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikiquote:John_Maynard_Keynes

and we are clearly dealing with holdovers from the 1930's - are we not?

adding:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...855197460.html
I do not, however, feel that further monetary accommodation will speed the process. It might well retard job creation, should it give rise to inflationary expectations or, worse, imply that, having suffered the slings and arrows of popular and political contempt as we went about doing what we did to save the financial system, we have now been compromised and become a pliant accomplice to Congress’ and the executive branch’s fiscal misfeasance. I am wary of those risks. Indeed, as a voting member of the FOMC this year, I have made clear within the meeting room and in public speeches that, barring some frightful development, I will vote against any program that might seek to extend or enlarge the substantial monetary accommodation we already have provided, just as I argued against the $600 billion extension the voters on the Committee approved last November. And I remain doubtful enough as to its efficacy that if at any time between now and June, it should prove demonstrably counterproductive, I will vote to curtail or perhaps discontinue it. As I said, the liquidity tanks are full, if not brimming over. The Fed has done its job. What is needed now is for business to be incentivized to commit that liquidity to creating American jobs. This is the task of the fiscal authorities, not the Federal Reserve.

full text:
http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speech...1/fs110307.cfm

[metalman]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

how does that one go?

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. ..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikiquote:John_Maynard_Keynes

and we are clearly dealing with holdovers from the 1930's - are we not?

my 2 cents...

if no' time to short' declarative sentence then i don't short.

it's called 'taking responsibility for your own actions'.

even a 'time to short' is still one man's opinion, but how many times has it been wrong?

[touchring]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

First of all, the 'market' in the sense of the US economy clearly hasn't benefited much, if at all, from QE1 and QE2.

So to say that the 'evidence' has changed - this is ludicrous. Housing continues to fall, durable goods are still at multi-decade lows, car sales, commercial lending, credit card loans, home loans, etc etc all point to a bad situation. Only student loans are still growing - and that can be easily seen as a desperation metric for the un- and under-employed combined with a government gravy train.

I beg to differ, there is credit expansion, you don't see it in US loan reports because all the cash has gone to emerging markets and overseas commodity bets.

[jpatter666]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

my 2 cents...

if no' time to short' declarative sentence then i don't short.

it's called 'taking responsibility for your own actions'.

even a 'time to short' is still one man's opinion, but how many times has it been wrong?

Oh please. MM, would you kindly then *let* EJ take his lumps as he has already done instead of constantly stepping in and making excuses which to my knowledge were neither asked for or wanted? I didn't and don't blame EJ for my losses, they were my own affair and that's why when shorting I use puts or rarely stop-loss (hard in this day of outright manipulation) to limit the loss.

The whole point was stating that yes, EJ is good, very, very damn good but not infallible and having other sources of information to balance and give contrasting (or supporting) opinion is a good thing. I found Martenson's site worthwhile.

But for that much I read Mish and even Automatic Earth -- because knowing how the other (deflationary) side thinks is IMO worthwhile because then you might better understand why the markets occasionally act if they are at the moment not according to your beliefs.

[lektrode]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

it is Mr Shake. So many times people measure their worth in nominal dollars. Especially stock market gains.
I know the gvt does to our detriment, but that is another thread. All gains really need to be expressed in purchasing power.

yes - and the ability to compare values/prices of REAL items (esp stuff one must consume daily) over time is what made the comparison in time/price/value of that particular pair of items so illuminating as to how the value of the currency has essentially krashed over the period

i remember the 73-76 daze vividly - my ole man had scored a brand new 73 buick lesabre in early 74 for a flat $3000 (tho i think he traded in the 70 chevy wagon) and gas was .439 vs today?

both items have increased by a factor of 10 appx
yeah, ok - the lesabre of today is equiped more like a caddie, better in fact than the caddies were in them days and they likely get almost twice the mpg (appx 15 in the 73, with a 350/5.7L engine) vs high 20's (guessing) tho undoubtably less HP with a 6 they have in em today.

i'm quite doubtful that his earnings wouldve done same, even if all things had o/w stayed equal

[lektrode]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

Worth a listen on this topic:

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/podcas...0811-part1.mp3

interesting argument on this - methinks the guest speakers won... (and the host is rooting for the administrations policies)

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

And today Martenson went right to DefCon 1, this-is-not-a-drill, full panic mode.

To an apocaholic, this stuff could trigger a five-day bender. Comments?

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/a...wn-in-progress

[jk]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

And today Martenson went right to DefCon 1, this-is-not-a-drill, full panic mode.

To an apocaholic, this stuff could trigger a five-day bender. Comments?

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/a...wn-in-progress

i'll match my doomer tendencies with anyone's, [ask my wife], but i think that although there will be some disruptions, another excuse for every cb that can to print, and enormous suffering by the immediate victims which will be quickly forgotten by most people, i won't believe people are taking this seriously until they shut down the nuclear plants still operating in [earthquake prone] southern california.

it happens that for other reasons entirely i lightened up a bit before the earthquake- sold about 1/3 of my profit-swollen silver position, about 1/10 of my gold, about 1/4 of my energy positions including [getting rid of] my positions in ccj and nlr. sometimes luck is more valuable than smarts.

but i'm thinking of buying back some of these positions soon. not yet, but soon.

[Kadriana]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

I was talking to a friend on the West coast whose husband is in the military. I asked her to let me know what the grocery stores were like and when she got back, she said she needed a double martini. She said people were pushing around full carts with their children towing a second cart full of food. From my understanding, the chance radioactivity material reaching the west coast is pretty limited but there are a lot of people out there that don't believe that. First, they went out and bought iodide pills. How many of those people are also going to stock up on food, bottled water and duct tape?