Martenson: The Coming Rout

[Alvaro Spain]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

really? march 2009 called the start of the 1st bounce. can anyone else remember this? all who can send ej an pm so he doesn't give up on us...

1.- What you say is true, EJ called the start of the 1st bounce. He also called the end of that bounce in April 2010, if I am not mistaken.
2.- Despite calling the start of the bounce, he didn't recommend buying stocks, his idea being that SP500 would crash again
3.- EJ is very aware of his own field of expertise (macro) and has told all of us that he is not good at short term market forecasting. He has been clear and honest in this.
4.- Taking all of this into account, I still trust EJ more than anybody else for long term economic analysis.
5.- I am also a subscriber at ChrisMartenson.com and, in my opinion, his own views are not that different from EJ's. He believes in Peak Oil, recommends buying gold, farmland and commodities, etc. (I am not aware of CM recommending stocks, but I am a subscriber since October 2010). I believe his site is worthwile.
6.- When I read CM's last analysis I thought "What a coincidence. EJ is also forecasting a temporary crash. Perhaps CM is reading iTulip?" (honestly, that's what I thought)

[jiimbergin]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

1.- What you say is true, EJ called the start of the 1st bounce. He also called the end of that bounce in April 2010, if I am not mistaken.
2.- Despite calling the start of the bounce, he didn't recommend buying stocks, his idea being that SP500 would crash again
3.- EJ is very aware of his own field of expertise (macro) and has told all of us that he is not good at short term market forecasting. He has been clear and honest in this.
4.- Taking all of this into account, I still trust EJ more than anybody else for long term economic analysis.
5.- I am also a subscriber at ChrisMartenson.com and, in my opinion, his own views are not that different from EJ's. He believes in Peak Oil, recommends buying gold, farmland and commodities, etc. (I am not aware of CM recommending stocks, but I am a subscriber since October 2010). I believe his site is worthwile.
6.- When I read CM's last analysis I thought "What a coincidence. EJ is also forecasting a temporary crash. Perhaps CM is reading iTulip?" (honestly, that's what I thought)

Your thoughts are most identical to mine. I too subscribe to both sites. If I had to choose I would choose itulip, not only because of EJ, but also for the many great intelligent posters we have here.

[metalman]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

1.- What you say is true, EJ called the start of the 1st bounce. He also called the end of that bounce in April 2010, if I am not mistaken.
2.- Despite calling the start of the bounce, he didn't recommend buying stocks, his idea being that SP500 would crash again

can't compare martensen & janszen.

i been reading ej since 1998... ej got out of stocks in march 2000... nasdaq ~5000... never returned! put $$$ into tbonds & gold. never sold them! if you sold in mar 2000 & never returned, you're still ahead of the game. if you sold in dec. 2007 & never returned, you're not doing so well at that but you're still ahead of the game. this ain't the 'trade in & out of the markets to enrich your broker & pay the taxman' site. it's the 'trade once a decade & grow your money' site.

3.- EJ is very aware of his own field of expertise (macro) and has told all of us that he is not good at short term market forecasting. He has been clear and honest in this.

no one's perfect. what's martenson's 12 year track record? he doesn't have a track record. eh, who cares. in the loosie goosie world of internet macro sites, style not substance matters.

4.- Taking all of this into account, I still trust EJ more than anybody else for long term economic analysis.

i may trust martenson as much... in 10 yrs if in 10 yrs he has a track record to match.

5.- I am also a subscriber at ChrisMartenson.com and, in my opinion, his own views are not that different from EJ's. He believes in Peak Oil, recommends buying gold, farmland and commodities, etc. (I am not aware of CM recommending stocks, but I am a subscriber since October 2010). I believe his site is worthwile.

agree... ej started talking about peak cheap oil in 2006. martenson? ej argued to buy gold in 2001. martenson? that said, the itulip site sucks. you have to use google to find anything. martenson is itulip for dummies. if ej cleaned up the site he'd do better.

6.- When I read CM's last analysis I thought "What a coincidence. EJ is also forecasting a temporary crash. Perhaps CM is reading iTulip?" (honestly, that's what I thought)

agree... martenson reads like it's cribbed from old itulip articles. no kidding. ej forecasts a 20% - 30% correction, martenson a month later. it happened before.

[Master Shake]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

really? march 2009 called the start of the 1st bounce. can anyone else remember this? all who can send ej an pm so he doesn't give up on us...

Very slick, MM. You could be a spin doctor. EJ's "call" of the first bounce was not a call to invest. To the contrary, it was a warning.

Debt Deflation Bear Market: First Bounce

In a recession, a recovery in personal consumption, incomes, and retail sales signals the start of recovery. The virtuous cycle of credit growth--and its corollary, debt growth—combine with rising incomes as the rate of unemployment growth slows. Credit expansion leads the economy out of the cycle, followed by incomes. That is what many stock market participants think they are seeing now, as previous experience has trained them to see. But they are wrong.










Again, I have the greatest respect and admiration for Eric, but this rote trashing of all other financial sites and commentators is really quite juvenile.

[c1ue]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

Sorry, I don't read it that he's advocating monetization, only that the market has discounted continued monetization and will tank when the Fed stops.

Is re-evaluating the evidence and changing your near term outlook "flip-flopping" or the behavior of a rational and dispassionate analyst.

First of all, the 'market' in the sense of the US economy clearly hasn't benefited much, if at all, from QE1 and QE2.

So to say that the 'evidence' has changed - this is ludicrous. Housing continues to fall, durable goods are still at multi-decade lows, car sales, commercial lending, credit card loans, home loans, etc etc all point to a bad situation. Only student loans are still growing - and that can be easily seen as a desperation metric for the un- and under-employed combined with a government gravy train.

The 'market' as Martenson apparently defines it is actually FIRE. But Martenson doesn't say so - he (deliberately or otherwise) conflates TBTF banks with the entire stock market.

So whether it is because Martenson is stupid (i.e. doesn't get FIRE) or is a shill - frankly what difference does it make?

There is a fundamental basis missing in his 'analysis'.

To say that the 'market' will crash because the Fed doesn't QE3 is to conflate the TBTF banks/FIRE with the market, and the market with the economy.

Wrong.

[Master Shake]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

First of all, the 'market' in the sense of the US economy clearly hasn't benefited much, if at all, from QE1 and QE2.

So to say that the 'evidence' has changed - this is ludicrous. Housing continues to fall, durable goods are still at multi-decade lows, car sales, commercial lending, credit card loans, home loans, etc etc all point to a bad situation. Only student loans are still growing - and that can be easily seen as a desperation metric for the un- and under-employed combined with a government gravy train.

The 'market' as Martenson apparently defines it is actually FIRE. But Martenson doesn't say so - he (deliberately or otherwise) conflates TBTF banks with the entire stock market.

So whether it is because Martenson is stupid (i.e. doesn't get FIRE) or is a shill - frankly what difference does it make?

There is a fundamental basis missing in his 'analysis'.

To say that the 'market' will crash because the Fed doesn't QE3 is to conflate the TBTF banks/FIRE with the market, and the market with the economy.

Wrong.

Whatever. I'm not looking at it from a philosophical/political perspective, but from the practical aspect of what to do with my investable funds, apart from physical PMs. The last two years have been a nice ride. Right now, there are a lot of flashing warning signs of another crash. Bill Gross just sold ALL his US Treasury holdings, Carl Icahn is telling his investors to go to cash, Martenson is calling for a big correction in everything, and the kicker was a story today that the "retail investor" is back in the game (just in time to get beat down again).

[c1ue]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

Whatever. I'm not looking at it from a philosophical/political perspective, but from the practical aspect of what to do with my investable funds, apart from physical PMs. The last two years have been a nice ride. Right now, there are a lot of flashing warning signs of another crash. Bill Gross just sold ALL his US Treasury holdings, Carl Icahn is telling his investors to go to cash, Martenson is calling for a big correction in everything, and the kicker was a story today that the "retail investor" is back in the game (just in time to get beat down again).

If you like to play with FIRE, of course that's your prerogative.

But what exactly has Martenson said? What is the entrance point and exit point? Which sectors/stocks will benefit the most/be hurt the most?

As much of what he's written, it is all talk.

For that matter, had you invested in silver in March 2009 - I think you'd have done far better than even catching the optimum entry/exit point of the 'bounce'.

Even a gold investment at that period would have done just fine.

So I'm unclear as to why Martenson is so worthwhile listening to.

[Alvaro Spain]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

can't compare martensen & janszen.

martenson is itulip for dummies. if ej cleaned up the site he'd do better.

Metalman, you touch an important point.

I am such a dummy. I love EJ's analysis, his independence and depth of thought, but there are many things in these analysis that I cannot understand. Perhaps I am not the only iTulip member in this situation.

On the other hand I think that I shouldn't be that stupid. I graduated in Physics, a difficult career. But still there are many sentences and paragraphs in EJ's analysis whose meaning elude me. I must conclude that he writes for analysts, for specialists in his field.

Martenson is also a good thinker, and his points of view are not far from iTulip's, but, most important for me, I can understand everything that he writes. OK, I am a dummy. And now what? Should I curse my fate or look for a practical solution? CM provides me with such a solution.

[don]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

Worth a listen on this topic:

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/podcas...0811-part1.mp3

[jpatter666]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

Sorry, I don't read it that he's advocating monetization, only that the market has discounted continued monetization and will tank when the Fed stops.

Is re-evaluating the evidence and changing your near term outlook "flip-flopping" or the behavior of a rational and dispassionate analyst.

I agree. He's stating that if the free money train stops, we could experience iTulip's sudden stop.

For what it's worth, I subscribe to both sites as well (Fleckenstein and Fred Hickey are also worthwhile). I like iTulip's commentary, but we only see that once a month on average. Martenson has a perspective very close to iTulip in many ways -- and I consider it one more tool in my quiver of information. Further, he comments quite often and I find the comments intelligent and relevant.

As has been pointed out already, iTulip blew in spades the rebound and many of us *lost* money either shorting or buying puts in preparation for a second crash. I think that is still in the cards but many of us including EJ IMHO completely misread how willing the Fed was to dump money on the markets beyond all reason.

[housingcrashsurvivor]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

I am such a dummy. I love EJ's analysis, his independence and depth of thought, but there are many things in these analysis that I cannot understand. Perhaps I am not the only iTulip member in this situation..

+1

Though not yet a paying member as I try to sort out internets where I might place some trust, I have always struggled to understand finance & economics. Fortunately I'm a bit of a cheap bastid so I've saved myself on that end. While many here who seem to have a better grasp of money also seem quite intelligent, even a mind with an i.q. high enough to crack physics can be glazed over by finance.

Being still good friends with many of the kids who I grew up with and knowing how well some of those guys are doing today but who struggled throughout school, it seems that while economics certainly takes the careful thought of a scholar, money is often a matter of street smarts.

[coolhand]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

Perhaps you don't remember this:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/s...ing-debt/25806

Here, he criticizes the 'stealth monetization of the US debt'.

Now, he's saying we must have monetization in the form of continued QE(n) or the economy will crash.

Flip flop.

I don't think he was necessarily critical of the initial monetization or hoping it continues for his own good, but rather objectively & pragmatically pointing out that the debt monetization is the key driver to asset prices in the current environment, & that any interruption of it would cause prices to drop.

IMO, I think you should read it as Chris Martenson's blog being written for a more generalist audience with perhaps less finance background than both the writing of & audience on iTulip.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

I don't think he was necessarily critical of the initial monetization or hoping it continues for his own good, but rather objectively & pragmatically pointing out that the debt monetization is the key driver to asset prices in the current environment, & that any interruption of it would cause prices to drop.

IMO, I think you should read it as Chris Martenson's blog being written for a more generalist audience with perhaps less finance background than both the writing of & audience on iTulip.

yes, I believe your interpretation is the correct one.

[metalman]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

If you like to play with FIRE, of course that's your prerogative.

But what exactly has Martenson said? What is the entrance point and exit point? Which sectors/stocks will benefit the most/be hurt the most?

As much of what he's written, it is all talk.

For that matter, had you invested in silver in March 2009 - I think you'd have done far better than even catching the optimum entry/exit point of the 'bounce'.

Even a gold investment at that period would have done just fine.

So I'm unclear as to why Martenson is so worthwhile listening to.

some folks like cm's 'on the one hand this & on the other that' style. i prefer the definitive 'time to short' style. ej warned us repeatedly that after the 1st bounce... markets will be unpredictable... bubble cycle era over... peak cheap oil + debt deflation + monetary unhinging... to that add civil wars in the middle east.

[Master Shake]

Re: Martenson: The Coming Rout

some folks like cm's 'on the one hand this & on the other that' style. i prefer the definitive 'time to short' style. ej warned us repeatedly that after the 1st bounce... markets will be unpredictable... bubble cycle era over... peak cheap oil + debt deflation + monetary unhinging... to that add civil wars in the middle east.

I prefer reading a variety of sources, deciding who and what is credible or not, and acting basing my decision on the totality of the information. No one person or website has all the answers.