Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

[c1ue]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

Quotes, as in your 'different' quote are used for... quotations. It's hard to know what you are talking about when you construct straw man arguments.

It is amusing that you say I'm creating straw men, when in fact you are the one who first started talking about shorting Apple.

All I've done here is point out the breathless linear projections of Apple's actual business performance don't match up with reality.

[renewable]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

It is amusing that you say I'm creating straw men, when in fact you are the one who first started talking about shorting Apple.

All I've done here is point out the breathless linear projections of Apple's actual business performance don't match up with reality.

We'll agree to differ on the use of quotation marks. The stopped clock will finally be right one day. It's been 4 years so far.

[c1ue]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

We'll agree to differ on the use of quotation marks. The stopped clock will finally be right one day. It's been 4 years so far.

All you're saying is that its different this time (for Apple).

It won't be.

[renewable]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

Apple’s iPhone market share grows 115% in 2011

Apple share price the day this thread started: 355

Apple share price today: 395

Of course the bubble will burst one day, but the short calls have been around on here for 4.5 years so far...

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

Apple’s iPhone market share grows 115% in 2011

Apple share price the day this thread started: 355

Apple share price today: 395

Of course the bubble will burst one day, but the short calls have been around on here for 4.5 years so far...

Great point.
Back in 1988 I insisted on using Apple computers for my projects (old Mac II series), and arm-twisted the IT group into buying them.
The IT guy hated me for it.
When he brought me the paperwork to sign, he sneered and said "You know Apple will be out of business in six months".

Twenty three years later their market cap is a third of a trillion dollars; they have $76 Bn cash on-hand, and I bought an iMac and iPhone 4, both of which are sweeeeet!

[c1ue]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

Apple’s iPhone market share grows 115% in 2011

Apple share price the day this thread started: 355

Apple share price today: 395

Of course the bubble will burst one day, but the short calls have been around on here for 4.5 years so far...

That number might be more startling if it represented overall market share, but it only represents phones shipped in Q1. Given that Apple releases a new phone once a year, it is quite safe to say that this tactic distorts data. There was a Verizon iPhone launch in Q1, with a white iPhone launch in April 2011.

Looking at actual overall market share, Android continues to outgrow Apple:



Within 1 year there will no longer be significant 3rd party market share to take over, and furthermore the Microsoft new platform may make a splash.

Either way, something's going to have to give: either Apple starts outgrowing Android or there will be a reprise of the Mac/PC outcome.

[aaron]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

My daughter insisted on an iphone for her birthday to replace her broken phone. I bought her one from craigslist for 150.

My sister-in-law got a brand new iphone 4. She gave her old iphone 3 to my wife.

I had an iphone 3, but dropped it one too many times. And, I hated AT&T. I am going to buy the iphone 5, if it is not insanely expensive.

3 iphones --> All buying apps.

These things seem tough enough. What if they last 5 years? That is a lot of apps and a lot of apple services that can be sold.

Do not short apple. I thought they should have failed many times over. I got the iPad and was a believer. Their stuff is addictive.

[CanuckinTX]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

It's not just that their stuff is addictive - it's just made and marketed so much better. Apple has the complete package from hardware to software to retail presence. Before I bought my iPad 2 I looked at all the other tablets and nothing else compared. There's a reason most iPhone users stick with it and Android users don't. I'm sure shorting AAPL will pay off one day but I don't see a crack in their armour yet.

http://www.cultofmac.com/how-does-th...ardware/107158

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/...vs-android-47/

[renewable]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010



Don't know where androidpolice.com get the above figures, but with Apple's market share rising, and RIM's market share falling, if there is a short based on these figures, it's Blackberry - especially as they are a one trick pony. Apple also have PC sales, OS sales, iPad sales, App sales, iTunes sales, etc. Apple are very 'sticky' for non technical users when all their songs on iTunes, their apps purchased in the store, etc.

It would be interesting to see what proportion of Apple's income (and future growth) is dependent on telephones, compared to the other areas in which it operates.

[c1ue]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

Don't know where androidpolice.com get the above figures, but with Apple's market share rising, and RIM's market share falling, if there is a short based on these figures, it's Blackberry - especially as they are a one trick pony. Apple also have PC sales, OS sales, iPad sales, App sales, iTunes sales, etc. Apple are very 'sticky' for non technical users when all their songs on iTunes, their apps purchased in the store, etc.

It would be interesting to see what proportion of Apple's income (and future growth) is dependent on telephones, compared to the other areas in which it operates.

If you cannot accept comScore numbers, then look at Gartner's overall world market share numbers. Q1 sales themselves don't mean anything - especially since the implication is that Apple's gigantic Q1 equals a 350% equivalent increase in Android.

You'll note that the Gartner numbers don't even mention RIM - all those other companies on that Gartner list are shipping Android phones.

As for addictiveness, etc etc - all this was said for Macs.

We all know how that turned out.

Apple has done a great job with the iPhone, but the same could have been said for the Mac.

The problem with Mac was that as technology improved and its competitors used said technology to cheaply replicate Mac functionality, the price premium just became too much.

To this day there are a large number of Mac fanatics out there albeit a low percentage of the market; the reality is the PC market went Windows decades ago. Perhaps someday the same will occur with Windows due to Linux.

This same technology curve is what confronts Apple.

If Apple is able to sustain a brand presence despite the technology curve, it will be the first and only example ever seen.

[renewable]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

If Apple is able to sustain a brand presence despite the technology curve, it will be the first and only example ever seen.

We can probably all agree on that. I'm just saying that it's futile trying to predict Apple's share price as a result of 1Q's figures, or concentration on a subset of their operations; as has been proved on here time & time again...

[c1ue]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

We can probably all agree on that. I'm just saying that it's futile trying to predict Apple's share price as a result of 1Q's figures, or concentration on a subset of their operations; as has been proved on here time & time again...

Certainly true.

You'll note I haven't said it is time to sell, either.

So long as global wealth more or less increases, Apple should be able to expand its revenues and profits simply by (as GRG55 notes) capturing the high end of the cell phone markets there.

However to sustain this niche, once the low hanging fruit is plucked, Apple must either maintain a permanent technological lead - be it software, hardware, or something other - or build a LVMH type brand presence.

Apple doesn't even have to lose market share in order to have a major share price fall - simply a compression of its P/E ratio would more than do the trick.

The presence of a credible, well funded, and faster growing alternative with even greater financial reward potential than Apple - this is the danger Android presents.

This is very much a reprise of the Windows/Mac wars in that sense, only without the Intel hardware factor.

The problem is, since Apple is so closed but is seeking hardware monopoly, Apple is trying to make the transition from system house to vertically integrated supplier in opposition to every other semiconductor/technology company in the world.

[flintlock]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

My daughter insisted on an iphone for her birthday to replace her broken phone. I bought her one from craigslist for 150.

My sister-in-law got a brand new iphone 4. She gave her old iphone 3 to my wife.

I had an iphone 3, but dropped it one too many times. And, I hated AT&T. I am going to buy the iphone 5, if it is not insanely expensive.

3 iphones --> All buying apps.

These things seem tough enough. What if they last 5 years? That is a lot of apps and a lot of apple services that can be sold.

Do not short apple. I thought they should have failed many times over. I got the iPad and was a believer. Their stuff is addictive.

Ha, I just got an Ipad too. Pretty neat device. Far too many times I have warned my wife about the potential peril of Apple stock. Meanwhile she rubs my nose it it every time the stock continues to climb. So I decided to quit trying to be "right" and just enjoy it while it lasts. $76 billion in cash is nothing to sneeze at.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

.. $76 billion in cash is nothing to sneeze at.

Way true.
That's enough money to enter almost any industry. Even a couple at the same time.
They could hire a team of automotive engineers and associated professionals, design a couple cars, build and tool the factory from scratch, and be producing automobiles without borrowing any money at all. Or develop a handful of pharmaceuticals. 76 billion dollars is a very useful amount of money at the global scale.

[touchring]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

Apple’s iPhone market share grows 115% in 2011

Apple share price the day this thread started: 355

Apple share price today: 395

Of course the bubble will burst one day, but the short calls have been around on here for 4.5 years so far...

Apple is a premium product, it will do well in an economic boom - which is now.