Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

[c1ue]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

c1ue, how has your bearish outlook on Apple since 2007 done so far?

Quite nicely actually. I've posted successful put buys and covers.

I also made a lot of money when Apple dropped down to $12.

You going to put in writing a prediction on Apple market cap of $1 billion? Or even $500 million?

Careful there don't sell on the news before you buy the rumor.

http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/artic...s_data_center/

I'll be damned impressed if Jobs/Apple are able to get the TV content owners to cough up their rights as he did with the music industry.

The music industry sure didn't win anything - with such a wonderful object lesson, why would any content owner try to repeat the experiment?

[renewable]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

Quite nicely actually. I've posted successful put buys and covers.

I also made a lot of money when Apple dropped down to $12.

You going to put in writing a prediction on Apple market cap of $1 billion? Or even $500 million?

It's just as well the GFC came along.

The many calls over the years on iTulip to short Apple have amply demonstrated that trying to predict Apple's price, especially on the basis of technology, is pretty futile.

[GRG55]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

It's just as well the GFC came along.

The many calls over the years on iTulip to short Apple have amply demonstrated that trying to predict Apple's price, especially on the basis of technology, is pretty futile.

Quite nicely actually. I've posted successful put buys and covers.

I also made a lot of money when Apple dropped down to $12.

...

Well done. But I suspect there's lots of other companies that have been much easier shorts to play than Apple since 2007...

Apple smashes expectations and shares rise

NEW YORK | Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:41pm EDT

(Reuters) - Apple Inc blew past Wall Street expectations for its fiscal second quarter, fueled by solid demand for iPhones, sending its shares up 2 percent after hours...

[c1ue]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

It's just as well the GFC came along.

The many calls over the years on iTulip to short Apple have amply demonstrated that trying to predict Apple's price, especially on the basis of technology, is pretty futile.

You could make the same argument for real estate from 1996 to 2007.

A bubble is a bubble, is a bubble.

Well done. But I suspect there's lots of other companies that have been much easier shorts to play than Apple since 2007...

Depends on your point of view. The point of picking on the biggest bubble is that you get the biggest rewards when they burst.

Apple is a very good marketing company - this is their true expertise.

One example:

smartphone os.png

[Munger]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

You could make the same argument for real estate from 1996 to 2007.

A bubble is a bubble, is a bubble.



Depends on your point of view. The point of picking on the biggest bubble is that you get the biggest rewards when they burst.

Apple is a very good marketing company - this is their true expertise.

One example:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3852[/ATTACH]

I have to agree. AAPL is the ultimate "man on the street" stock. Everyone and their mother "knows" it's a winner, and they own the shares to prove it. Everyone from cab drivers to college kids have told me they own it. I've heard stories like, "I doubled my money in a year -- you'd better buy AAPL before it doubles again!" That, to me, screams "danger, Will Rogers."

Of course, the trick with bubbles is figuring out when they will pop. It was a bubble last year, but you would have gotten smashed trying to short it.

[renewable]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

Of course, the trick with bubbles is figuring out when they will pop. It was a bubble last year, but you would have gotten smashed trying to short it.

You would have got smashed following every iTulip 'short Apple' thread since 2007. The stopped clock will finally be right one day.

[Munger]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

You would have got smashed following every iTulip 'short Apple' thread since 2007. The stopped clock will finally be right one day.

Sounds like housing talk circa 2005. Just because it hasn't come down doesn't mean it's not overpriced.

I like Apple and own many Apple products. Not the stock, however. My reading is sentiment-based: buy into fear and sell into greed. All I see for AAPL is greed.

[c1ue]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

You would have got smashed following every iTulip 'short Apple' thread since 2007. The stopped clock will finally be right one day.

I've already challenged you to state what you think will happen.

Not up for it?

[renewable]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

I've already challenged you to state what you think will happen.

Not up for it?

I guess that Apple will have a substantial pullback sometime soon. Prediction made 21 April 2011.

There you go, I've beaten all the umpteen 'short Apple' threads since 2007. Happy now?

[seanm123]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

C1ue are you a betting man? They have more than one product.

Here is some worthwhile reading from the Vampire Squid.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/53301832/G...-Tablet-Market

[c1ue]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

I guess that Apple will have a substantial pullback sometime soon. Prediction made 21 April 2011.

So all your talk about Apple being 'different' is just talk?

C1ue are you a betting man? They have more than one product.

Sure, they have more than 1 product. But 1 product drives almost all the profitability, with iTunes being #2 (and the real backing behind iPod).

10 years ago, Apple also had multiple products. Remember the Newton?

While iPads are nice - there is nothing there to prevent all of the existing laptop makers from replicating the functionality.

Indeed, Apple's iPad 'lead' is nothing like what iPhone was able to achieve.

Keep in mind while I have made money shorting Apple, I'm not saying short them this instant.

The point of this thread and the updates is to watch whether Apple is able to transition from being a high margin niche player into a true market dominator - which is what their valuation is assuming.

Or to put it in difference terms: the difference between being Osborne and Dell.

[seanm123]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

I started with my computing journey back in the 1970s with one of these.



I suspect the latest bubble in Tech has only begun to build steam, and will end just like the last one when
They all run out of cash after the the stock has dropped to the basement.

[renewable]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

So all your talk about Apple being 'different' is just talk?

What are you going on about? Please provide a link to where I made 'all this talk' about 'Apple being different' ?

[c1ue]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

What are you going on about? Please provide a link to where I made 'all this talk' about 'Apple being different' ?

Where you said:

The many calls over the years on iTulip to short Apple have amply demonstrated that trying to predict Apple's price, especially on the basis of technology, is pretty futile.

Except, of course, what is being said isn't to short Apple (right now), but that it is a bubble.

[renewable]

Re: Apple iPhone market share failure to grow in Q4 2010

Where you said:

Except, of course, what is being said isn't to short Apple (right now), but that it is a bubble.

Quotes, as in your 'different' quote are used for... quotations. It's hard to know what you are talking about when you construct straw man arguments.