How to run cars without oil

[flintlock]

Re: How to run cars without oil

Would economies of scale not eventually lower the cost of electric motors like in the Tesla? Personally, I'm a bit of a skeptic when it comes to electric cars as a large scale solution. The more I look at it, the energy issue will need many solutions, not just a few. Save a little here, save a little there. Hoping for a cumulative effect.

As far as comparing electric cars to early automobile teething troubles. Yes I agree, but, our technical resources in general are far better developed than in the early days of the automobile. So the fact it is taking so long to bring to market leads me to believe the obstacles are far more difficult and the goal much less attainable than with gasoline powered cars. In other words, we are a much smarter and more well developed society in terms of technical achievement than in 1900. Things that are going to "work" usually end up either making it or not making it in a quicker time. I hope they end up being at least part of the solution. But my gut tells me they won't. Something else may eclipse electric cars before they get a chance to prove themselves.

[c1ue]

Re: How to run cars without oil

Would economies of scale not eventually lower the cost of electric motors like in the Tesla?

Very doubtful.

Electric motors are fundamentally very simple: as simple as a magnet and a coil of copper wire: (via wiki)


Jedlik's "electromagnetic self-rotor", 1827 (Museum of Applied Arts, Budapest. The historic motor still works perfectly today.^[5])




So you can see from here - the cost is primarily in the materials as the complexity is very low. Certainly modern electric motors are somewhat more advanced, but the difference is nothing as compared to 1915 combustion engines and modern gasoline engines. For one thing, fuel injection!

I'd also note that electric motors generate significant EM fields - that's why they don't need oil or have many moving parts. If people are paranoid about cell phone signals, the EM fields from car size electric motors are thousands, if not more, times stronger.

In fact I wonder if cell phone signals are impacted in electric cars...

[cbr]

Re: How to run cars without oil

get over it; first of all, you need oil just to lubricate every single moving modern thing... vegetable oil puts you back at 19th century levels of mechanical interaction.

second of all, try lighting a fire with a half cup of gasoline and a match, rather than with electric motor hooked up to a stationary bike, and you'll get a real quick lesson in energy density and practical usability...but you'll lose weight!

or notice that your nuclear powerplant/grid supplied electric weedeater is big, heavy, slow, weak, expensive and unreliable, compared to even a bottom of the barrel gas powered version.

finally, battery technology is the key to all 'renewable' sources; and batteries are already incredibly advanced. I am not an expert, but I would say that quantum improvements in battery capacity, life and power (prerequisite to any hope of renewable energy as a practical solution) is going to be relying on the discovery of fundamental physical properties unknown in the natural universe (by nano tech) which may or may not be even possible within the laws of physics (and its subset, chemistry)

[flintlock]

Re: How to run cars without oil

Very doubtful.

Electric motors are fundamentally very simple: as simple as a magnet and a coil of copper wire: (via wiki)


Jedlik's "electromagnetic self-rotor", 1827 (Museum of Applied Arts, Budapest. The historic motor still works perfectly today.^[5])




So you can see from here - the cost is primarily in the materials as the complexity is very low. Certainly modern electric motors are somewhat more advanced, but the difference is nothing as compared to 1915 combustion engines and modern gasoline engines.

I agree. I just can't see why a $109k Tesla costs so much more than the $30k electric car other than low low production numbers and high R&D costs per unit. Certainly the raw materials involved would not account for all of it. I suspect ALL electrics will come drastically down in price once(if?) some economy of scale is reached. Of course material SHORTAGES could cancel this out.

[Ghent12]

Re: How to run cars without oil

I agree. I just can't see why a $109k Tesla costs so much more than the $30k electric car other than low low production numbers and high R&D costs per unit. Certainly the raw materials involved would not account for all of it. I suspect ALL electrics will come drastically down in price once(if?) some economy of scale is reached. Of course material SHORTAGES could cancel this out.

I think supply/demand information accounts for the $109k price tag. It's trendy to be "green," no matter how idiotic and even counter-productive that entire concept actually is. How many people with more money than sense can say they own an electric sports car? Personally, I'd prefer to squander it on something like the Jaguar C-X75.

[c1ue]

Re: How to run cars without oil

I agree. I just can't see why a $109k Tesla costs so much more than the $30k electric car other than low low production numbers and high R&D costs per unit. Certainly the raw materials involved would not account for all of it. I suspect ALL electrics will come drastically down in price once(if?) some economy of scale is reached. Of course material SHORTAGES could cancel this out.

No doubt the carbon fiber body has a lot to do with it. Sure, carbon is cheap, unless you have to create it layer by layer.

Plus putting in sports car suspension, brakes, tires, 'glam'/fittings, and a stronger electrical system wouldn't hurt.

Compare with the Lotus.

The cost of the batteries is probably not insignificant as well - 6,800 form factor 18650 lithium ion battery packs. Total weight: 450 kg

http://webarchive.teslamotors.com/di...terySystem.pdf

Market price to buy such one 18650 is about $4 in bulk: http://www.dealextreme.com/p/ultrafi...h-battery-1213

That's $27K right there.

This cost is also why lesser electric cars are so damn expensive.

[Starving Steve]

Re: How to run cars without oil

450kg for batteries is 990 pounds for batteries. This idea of an electric car is a no-brainer: it's dead. Such cars are for people who may want to show-off their new electric car, but real people like me would never buy such a piece of junk. It's not a practical nor an affordable car for common people to drive.

Has your new electric car passed the winter in Winnipeg test? And has it passed the 200,000 miles (322,580 km) of driving without major repairs test? Depreciation costs after 12 years of driving in cold climates? Black book value after 12 years in Winnipeg or blue book value in the U.S. after 12 years of hard driving? We soon shall find-out what an electric car is really worth used, in the real world--- not Pebble Beach, California.

[flintlock]

Re: How to run cars without oil

Yeah, I figure resale of an older electric would probably be pretty bad.

[lektrode]

Re: How to run cars without oil

450kg for batteries is 990 pounds for batteries. This idea of an electric car is a no-brainer: it's dead. ...It's not a practical nor an affordable car for common people to drive.

yeah, but for the venture-cap/private-money/early-stage-funding/hightech crowd in silicon valley (read: them who got filthy spending OPM on pipe dreams; netscape anybody - how about aol?) it IS the ultimate status symbol (hood ornament) and looks trendy to the DC aristocracy, so... "whats not to like"?

.....We soon shall find-out what an electric car is really worth used, in the real world--- not Pebble Beach, California.

as usual, Mr steve, you have an uncanny ability to distill to the bottom line....

that said, methinks the chevy volt shows promise (said the chevy owner)

"...You can set my truck on fire, and roll it down a hill
But I still wouldn't trade it for a Coupe DeVille..."

nor a prius.

[mooncliff]

Re: How to run cars without oil

Here is how to swap out the discharged battery and replace with a charged battery in 1 min 20 seconds, i.e., about the same time as a fill up.

[don]

Re: How to run cars without oil

Images Tim Grey

[c1ue]

Re: How to run cars without oil

Here is how to swap out the discharged battery and replace with a charged battery in 1 min 20 seconds, i.e., about the same time as a fill up.

Ooh that's lovely.

So now you have to make at least 2 times as many Li-Ion batteries per electric car on the road.

Who is responsible for the $10K or $27K capital cost tied up in the batteries?

Who gets charged when the batteries swapped out have 15% less capacity than the batteries swapped in? or the reverse?

What happens when a new battery technology comes out? The 'battery stations' just have to eat it?

Technotopianism.

[EJ]

Re: How to run cars without oil

Here is how to swap out the discharged battery and replace with a charged battery in 1 min 20 seconds, i.e., about the same time as a fill up.

I spoke with the head of US business development for Better Place, the CEO of Gulf Oil, and others in my research for my book. My conclusion is that this approach is too capital intensive. The winning strategy will be a top-off approach, as is used today by everyone with a laptop computer. You plug your car in wherever and whenever you can, to keep the charge topped off. At the supermarket. At work. At the airport. And so on. My book refers to an entrepreneur who is trying to build a company around this low capex, incremental concept.

[c1ue]

Re: How to run cars without oil

The winning strategy will be a top-off approach, as is used today by everyone with a laptop computer.

This makes a lot more sense - especially if coupled with a micropayments system.

The capital investment is much lower, though the grid issues, range, and what not still remain.

[c1ue]

Re: How to run cars without oil

Here's a fine example of the otherwise reasonable idea - top off stations/recharging stations - which is being used to milk subsidies:

http://spectator.org/archives/2011/0...p-jobs-granted

The latest I've discovered is Scottsdale, Ariz.-based ECOtality, which is another in a litany of companies with cutesy, Green-sounding names. Its work was featured recently by the Oregonian, which reported that the company will install about 1,150 electric vehicle charging stations in homes, businesses and public spaces in four of the state's major cities. The project -- which extends to 16 cities across the country -- is backed by $115 million in Department of Energy grants.
"The launch is part of the EV Project, a three-year study of how people use electric cars," the newspaper reported. "The project will collect non-personal data from the car and the charging station, such as the amount of energy and length of charging time, to look at how to create more energy-efficient systems."
So there you go: Government-funded intrusion to study how citizens plug new electronic gadgets into the wall. Did cell phones start this way?
Anyway, the project gives the also-very-subsidized sales of the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt some oomph. Drivers of those electric vehicles who also sign up for the ECOtality project will receive a free charging station, a $1,200 value. With the $7,500 tax credit for the vehicle, those are some big dollars to get somebody to develop a habit for the government to study.
The Oregonian reports that 600 Oregonians have already signed up for the program, which means $720,000 flowing from your pockets to the test cases', so they can have a free gas pump lookalike in their garages that dispenses electricity. But there are more as five other states are part of the project, with ECOtality planning to give away a total of 15,085 charging systems to the guinea pigs.
You might think this largess would lift ECOtality above the profitability line. You'd be wrong. Through the third quarter of last year the company had a net loss of $12.5 million, on $9.3 million in revenues, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings. This followed losses of $29.5 million in 2009 and more than $8 million in 2008, yet somehow the government thought ECOtality was a good "investment" of your tax dollars.

Spending $115 million for 1,150 charging stations plus some study work?

Doing the math yields $100,000 per charging station.

Does it really require $100,000 in order to install a $1,200 charging station and then study it for 3 years?

Maybe if it were just one, and it employed a full time ecological management MBA to do so. To have a scale of 1,150 with that cost...

This looks simply ludicrous.