The UK as a 3rd world nation: "The era of permanently available electricity is coming to an end"

[c1ue]

And this isn't some doomster talking, it is the head of the UK National Grid...

"As a society, we need to be clear what we can and cannot afford"

Indeed.

UK folks - comments?

[Starving Steve]

Re: The UK as a 3rd world nation: "The era of permanently available electricity is coming to an end"

This reads like energy management plan in most of Canada (Alberta excluded) and much of the USA to-day. Certainly, this reads like the energy management plan of Dr. Chu, who now heads the U.S. Dept. of Energy in the Obama Administration.

Note the arrogance in the remark made by Mr. Holiday on BBC's Radio 4: "People would have to change their behaviour....The grid is going to be a very different system in 2020, 2030. "

[lektrode]

Re: The UK as a 3rd world nation: "The era of permanently available electricity is coming to an end"

This reads like energy management plan in most of Canada (Alberta excluded) and much of the USA to-day. Certainly, this reads like the energy management plan of Dr. Chu, who now heads the U.S. Dept. of Energy in the Obama Administration.

Note the arrogance in the remark made by Mr. Holiday on BBC's Radio 4: "People would have to change their behaviour....The grid is going to be a very different system in 2020, 2030. "

likely, perhaps - but as long as we dont get brought down to/with 'price controls' then its more likely supplies will expand to meet demand.
unforeseen system shocks notwithstanding:
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org...pub_detail.asp
Space-weather experts have changed their prediction of the effects of the 100-year solar storm from likely being a weeklong blackout across the East Coast through Chicago to one that could easily be yearlong, with restoration taking four–ten years. This announcement prompted a tabletop exercise in March 2010, sponsored by NOAA in Colorado, followed by an emergency management bulletin(pdf) nationwide.

----------

but short of something this massive, methinks scheduled-power-outages can be easily mitigated with solar-PV, batteries/inverter
and with any luck at all, offpeak rate tarriffs will/could even make this option pay for itself (if the rate differential is high enuf)

and by the looks of the road ahead, i think offpeak rates will be inevitable, as the cost of building power plants to handle marginal/peak load is getting berzerk (and we havent even started with lektric cars yet)

in other news, we had/have a storm blowing thru that dumped a bunch of rain, with high winds (attn Calif: this one
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/...st_loop-12.gif - could be another storm like what made donner pass famous and dropped 17feet at mammoth in dec - better take precautions, or at least head for the sierra NOW) - knocked down a bunch of power lines on oahu - and get this: just as the IBEW called a strike on hawn electric - likely just the start of a season of 'labor unrest' = gonna be a long hot summer, with reg gas upto 3.80-4bux already

[GRG55]

Re: The UK as a 3rd world nation: "The era of permanently available electricity is coming to an end"

I find it rather interesting that as we move towards the next "cheap" energy source to replace petroleum...electricity...there's talk about using it "when it is available".

I think he's blowing smoke just to grab a headline for himself.

To truly electrify our societies we are already developing ways to convert, store, move [portability] and recover energy in the form of electricity. These same technologies, such as power storage mechanisms to electrify the transport system, will provide the answers for how to do the same thing at stationary consumption sites. Buy and store the energy when the wind is blowing or the sun is out, thus cheap and abundant, then recover it as you need it.

From the "Trains, Planes & Automobiles" file:

Electric trains and cars are well along. Here's some things happening in the aircraft world:

http://www.cessna.com/NewReleases/Ne...324720455.html

http://www.eaa.org/news/2011/2011-02-17_efp.asp

http://www.flyingmag.com/news/yuneec...ours-endurance

http://www.trikepilot.com/magazine/r...-next_394.html

[mooncliff]

Re: The UK as a 3rd world nation: "The era of permanently available electricity is coming to an end"

Sanyo already sells whole house batteries that can run a house overnight. (I think the 1.57 kwh is a conversion error from the Japanese number system. I think it is supposed to be 15.7 kwh, which should run a house overnight).
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news...-ion-batteries
Here is the current page, but unfortunately it is only in Japanese.
http://www.sanyohomes.co.jp/eco_safety/taiyo/

Full-sized units are under test that will run a typical household, say storing about 200 kwh, for about a week. The battery is the size of a small refrigerator. The estimated cost in 2015 is about $3,000.

So, a possible low-cost solution. Is it possible that the Chief Director of the National Grid does not know this?

[c1ue]

Re: The UK as a 3rd world nation: "The era of permanently available electricity is coming to an end"

To truly electrify our societies we are already developing ways to convert, store, move [portability] and recover energy in the form of electricity. These same technologies, such as power storage mechanisms to electrify the transport system, will provide the answers for how to do the same thing at stationary consumption sites. Buy and store the energy when the wind is blowing or the sun is out, thus cheap and abundant, then recover it as you need it.

I agree that there is work being done on all you note above.

I also point out, however, that most of the investment in the electricity field is going towards 1st generation solar, wind energy, and other 'sexy' forms of alternative energy rather than the much less sexy things like transmission and storage.

This is what I refer to when I continually beat the drum on the folly of throwing money blindly at alternative energy.

Sanyo already sells whole house batteries that can run a house overnight. (I think the 1.57 kwh is a conversion error from the Japanese number system. I think it is supposed to be 15.7 kwh, which should run a house overnight).
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news...-ion-batteries
Here is the current page, but unfortunately it is only in Japanese.
http://www.sanyohomes.co.jp/eco_safety/taiyo/

Full-sized units are under test that will run a typical household, say storing about 200 kwh, for about a week. The battery is the size of a small refrigerator. The estimated cost in 2015 is about $3,000.

Small problem - besides the cost: what happens when you have electric transport?

http://green.autoblog.com/2010/05/27...recharging-sp/

The Nissan Leaf has a 24 Kwh capacity by itself, and a range of only 65 miles from Consumer Reports' own testing.

As the average American drives 15000 miles a year, it is pretty clear that charging will pretty much have to happen every day.

The other note is that Sanyo's projections are based on a 48 yen per Kwh feed-in tariff.

This is probably twice what a consumer actually pays for electricity. Feed-in tariffs have been a catastrophic failure in Spain and Germany, no doubt Japan desires to retest this phenomenon.

And what about the entire point of the article: Normally it is 3rd world countries which cannot maintain steady electricity availability?

If there is not more emphasis placed on transmission/regulation, as well as more reliable electrical sources or storage found, then in concert with the electrification of transport - the comments by Mr. Holliday are quite conceivable.

[GRG55]

Re: The UK as a 3rd world nation: "The era of permanently available electricity is coming to an end"

I agree that there is work being done on all you note above.

I also point out, however, that most of the investment in the electricity field is going towards 1st generation solar, wind energy, and other 'sexy' forms of alternative energy rather than the much less sexy things like transmission and storage.

This is what I refer to when I continually beat the drum on the folly of throwing money blindly at alternative energy...

Whenever money is cheap and plentiful, capital is misallocated in virtually every sector of the economy. When official government policy gets involved the distortions are most likely to be even worse. Sign of the times I am afraid.

I am convinced the only thing that is going to change any of this is that money has to become scarce and expensive. Good luck waiting for that to happen...

Sanyo already sells whole house batteries that can run a house overnight. (I think the 1.57 kwh is a conversion error from the Japanese number system. I think it is supposed to be 15.7 kwh, which should run a house overnight).
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news...-ion-batteries
Here is the current page, but unfortunately it is only in Japanese.
http://www.sanyohomes.co.jp/eco_safety/taiyo/

Full-sized units are under test that will run a typical household, say storing about 200 kwh, for about a week. The battery is the size of a small refrigerator. The estimated cost in 2015 is about $3,000.

So, a possible low-cost solution. Is it possible that the Chief Director of the National Grid does not know this?

There's also lots of ways to "store" electrical power that do not involve batteries. For example, for decades now there have been commercial installations that use refrigeration systems using cheaper off-peak night-time electricity rates to freeze water, which is then used as the air conditioning coolant for the building in the daytime. That's a simple form of phase change system. There's lots of examples like this where there is no need to have a battery to "electrify" a function.

Lot's more of this sort of thinking and applications will make that National Grid Director statement seem idiotic...

[Starving Steve]

Re: The UK as a 3rd world nation: "The era of permanently available electricity is coming to an end"

Am I reading this right? "The new Nissan Leaf with a 24 Kwh capacity by itself, and a range of only 65 miles from Consumer Reports' own testing."

Try this in Winnipeg in winter at -39F (-38C) and wind-chill in ADDITION to that temperature. (No real Canadian ever counts wind-chill as temperature.) I suspect the range of the Nissan Leaf would be zero.

Real world: The Nissan Leaf has a 600 pound battery pack and lithium-ion batteries. That battery pack has to be lugged around town.

And lithium-ion battery packs are not going to be cheap because lithium is rather rare on Earth. However, we could go to the Moon for lithium.

Yes, this is what happens when a Bernanke keeps interest rates well below the inflation rate for an indefinite period of time. This is what happens when interest rates are zero for savers, year after year.

http://green.autoblog.com/2010/05/27...recharging-sp/

This is where science and engineering are now: "sustainable-thinking". Instead of "can-do", as it was in the 1950's, it is now "sustainable-thinking". One will make-do and do-without. It is mandated by "authorities", especially authorities in government. The U.S. and the U.K. are now becoming 3rd-world nations--- turd-world nations.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: The UK as a 3rd world nation: "The era of permanently available electricity is coming to an end"

Whenever money is cheap and plentiful, capital is misallocated in virtually every sector of the economy. When official government policy gets involved the distortions are most likely to be even worse. Sign of the times I am afraid.

I am convinced the only thing that is going to change any of this is that money has to become scarce and expensive. Good luck waiting for that to happen...

A little overy cynical I think. Certain advancements which are for the common good (such as the postal system, roads, the internet, cheap energy, etc) often require the investment of governments.

Why do you think Big Oil never bothered to invest in alternative energy?

[c1ue]

Re: The UK as a 3rd world nation: "The era of permanently available electricity is coming to an end"

Why do you think Big Oil never bothered to invest in alternative energy?

Where did you get this concept from?

The state that many alternative energy technologies today are in, are due to investments by oil companies prior to 1995: solar PV (for oil rig electricity in out of the way places), battery technology (Chevron sued Toyota over automotive NiMH battery use), biofuels (Shell's made big bets here).

Sure, they could have invested more. But then again, they're oil companies, not alternative energy companies.

[mooncliff]

Re: The UK as a 3rd world nation: "The era of permanently available electricity is coming to an end"

Yes, EcoCute heat pump water heaters are super efficient, work offpeak hours, and store more than enough hot water for a family of 4 living in a single house. I know people who have them and they are great. Hot water for the entire family is $15 a month. It runs offpeak after midnight when the electric rate is much lower in Japan. I think it uses about 1 kilowatt per hour. Units are about $5,000, but prices are dropping rapidly. The other consideration is that if you discontinue using gas, your insurance is reduced because fire risk is less, so the cost is even less.

In Hawaii, people run water heaters like this during the day and use the cool air that comes out to air condition the house. The cost is then quite reasonable. If it is not a sunny area, makes even more sense than a solar water heater.