The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

[flintlock]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

I use history as the best guide to predict the future. What is the track record of Muslim Democracies? ( serious question, not being a smart ass). I'm not an expert, but don't most fall into either the dictator (a la Khadaffi, Mubarak, Assad) mode or the Iranian version?

Regardless, I think the Middle East is in for some rough seas for a while. Fascinating from a historical perspective. But I feel for the people there. These situations almost always involve some pain. This is huge stuff going on. Jets bombing in Libya! Protests in Bahrain. Big question is what happens if it hits Saudi Arabia. Does the US "stand by their man"?

[GRG55]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

I use history as the best guide to predict the future. What is the track record of Muslim Democracies? ( serious question, not being a smart ass). I'm not an expert, but don't most fall into either the dictator (a la Khadaffi, Mubarak, Assad) mode or the Iranian version?

Regardless, I think the Middle East is in for some rough seas for a while. Fascinating from a historical perspective. But I feel for the people there. These situations almost always involve some pain. This is huge stuff going on. Jets bombing in Libya! Protests in Bahrain. Big question is what happens if it hits Saudi Arabia. Does the US "stand by their man"?

The short answer is "No".

As I have posted before, the USA is at once the most important and least dependable ally in this region.

The Shah fell and was exiled, while the Americans were completely surprised that a bunch of students would hold their Embassy employees to hostage [that anyone still listens to Zbigniew Brzezinski, Carter's National Security Advisor at the time, is a complete mystery to me].

Saddam was essential in the 1980's, expendable and hung from a rope two decades later.

In 2009 Hillary Clinton said of Hosni Mubarak: "I really consider President and Mrs. Mubarak to be friends of my family. So I hope to see him often here in Egypt and in the United States.”. I wonder if Bill and Hillary have a bedroom they can spare for them now?

The US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters are not far from my villa. As much as they need the US Navy, how much do you think the Bahrain Ruling Family trusts the support of the USA now?

In a nation where women still can't drive a car legally, after listening to lectures about "democracy" and watching what has gone on in Iraq in the name of democracy, how much do you think the House of Saud is prepared to take advice from the American Administration?

USA influence in the region is waning for reasons that have nothing to do with the rise of China, or competition from Russia. A good deal of the problem is self inflicted.

[oddlots]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

USA influence in the region is waning for reasons that have nothing to do with the rise of China, or competition from Russia. A good deal of the problem is self inflicted.

By self-inflicted do you meant that the US has failed to reliably stand behind police states?

If so, when do you draw the line? When the torture and oppression kick's up enough bad PR? When the organs of the state (e.g., Army in Egypt) refuses to accept the "apres moi le deluge" logic so you just have to follow along and allow for a radical change?

Like Flintlock above I'm not trying to be a smartass. Every actor has to make some accommodation with the dumb momentum of history and the friend/enemy dynamic. This will be true of the most pristine government to emerge from this crisis in, for instance, Egypt.

But I still have to ask, what's your moral compass here?

[cjppjc]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

All morality is subjective.

[oddlots]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

Errrr... Could you then explain why for instance the Libyan ambassador to China resigned this week (as opposed to last month, year, decade etc...) We all make moral calculations based on what we think we can and can't change, what we can and can't bear, or what opportunities remain for us to do good or bad by our own lights, what responsibilities we feel we can't abandon or "see to" as any given situation evolves.

Saying it's all subjective is simply to collapse this from something that is recognizable as life into an undifferentiated and meaningless soup.

Don't buy it.

[vinoveri]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

All morality is subjective.

True enough if you mean that morality is the result of each subject's recognition of their duty to each and every other subject.

[oddlots]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

The real crime is when the media pushes a point that a 'democracy' is forming, when on the contrary there is very little evidence in regards to a 'democracy' forming. The media has very little to do with the truth and reporting what is happening but, more about selling a viewpoint/ideology along with a judgement or whether the MB/church/democracy is good or bad.

I honestly think that's unhinged rubbish. The "real crime" is obviously the shooting of civilian protesters in the streets of Iran, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, China etc, etc, etc.. The fact that, for the most part, this only matters when there's a press to report it is surely a secondary irony at best. (As to why you think that an astonishing number of people are willing to take to the streets in protest is not evidence of "democracy forming" I'm mystified. Democracy = participation on one level or another. WTF?)

Given that, I would agree it's ironic that the outrage felt is directly related to the press-freedom allowed. More oppression, less press freedom = more freedom of maneuver for the regime in question. Libya for instance.

You can address that in a very small way here if you like:

https://secure.avaaz.org/en/blackout...e_protests/?fp

[cjppjc]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

We all make moral calculations based on what we think we can and can't change, what we can and can't bear, or what opportunities remain for us to do good or bad by our own lights, what responsibilities we feel we can't abandon or "see to" as any given situation evolves.

Saying it's all subjective is simply to collapse this from something that is recognizable as life into an undifferentiated and meaningless soup.

Don't buy it.

That is why all morality is subjective. Think also over time how something that was once considered moral is no longer thought of as moral. Geographic and cultural influences affect morality as well. If something was immoral it should not matter where you live.

[cjppjc]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

True enough if you mean that morality is the result of each subject's recognition of their duty to each and every other subject.

Close enough.

[GRG55]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

By self-inflicted do you meant that the US has failed to reliably stand behind police states?

If so, when do you draw the line? When the torture and oppression kick's up enough bad PR? When the organs of the state (e.g., Army in Egypt) refuses to accept the "apres moi le deluge" logic so you just have to follow along and allow for a radical change?

Like Flintlock above I'm not trying to be a smartass. Every actor has to make some accommodation with the dumb momentum of history and the friend/enemy dynamic. This will be true of the most pristine government to emerge from this crisis in, for instance, Egypt.

But I still have to ask, what's your moral compass here?

There was a time when the USA legitimately commanded most of the high moral ground in international affairs.

That time has clearly passed.

Why?

Having said that I am mindful of Lord Palmerston's infamous quote:

“Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.”

[Master Shake]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

Re. One: if you disagree with the post why post it and why not make this clear.

Re. Two: understanding my point requires not taking what the Iranian regime says at face value.

I try to read a lot of different sources, not only ones which share my views and values. I also have a contrary nature and am naturally skeptical about what the mainstream media presents as a concensus or accepted POV. The concensus media view is/was that the average Joe Egyptian overthrew an oppressive dictator. No discussion of the what role radical Islamacists played or could play in the aftermath. Plus, outside of Hosni leaving with his cash and gold, there was no real change in government: Mubarek was from the army and the army is still in charge. In this case the Revolution was televised, and like TV, you don't see what happens after the program ends. Plus, some of the ugly parts were left out or glossed over, like the gang rape of reporter Lara Logan by a mob chanting "Jew!" And that happened during the celebration after Mubarek left, so I'm not sure you can pin it on his thugs.

Does that mean what happened in Egypt wasn't "good?" No, it was kinda cool to see dispossessed people take action against a corrupt government. I'm sure most of us would like to see something similar happen here wrt our Financial Overlords. But, that doesn't mean you ignore reality.

As for your comments about Iran, I found them to be a non-sequiteur at best.

[flintlock]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

The short answer is "No".

As I have posted before, the USA is at once the most important and least dependable ally in this region.

The Shah fell and was exiled, while the Americans were completely surprised that a bunch of students would hold their Embassy employees to hostage [that anyone still listens to Zbigniew Brzezinski, Carter's National Security Advisor at the time, is a complete mystery to me].

Saddam was essential in the 1980's, expendable and hung from a rope two decades later.

In 2009 Hillary Clinton said of Hosni Mubarak: "I really consider President and Mrs. Mubarak to be friends of my family. So I hope to see him often here in Egypt and in the United States.”. I wonder if Bill and Hillary have a bedroom they can spare for them now?

The US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters are not far from my villa. As much as they need the US Navy, how much do you think the Bahrain Ruling Family trusts the support of the USA now?

In a nation where women still can't drive a car legally, after listening to lectures about "democracy" and watching what has gone on in Iraq in the name of democracy, how much do you think the House of Saud is prepared to take advice from the American Administration?

USA influence in the region is waning for reasons that have nothing to do with the rise of China, or competition from Russia. A good deal of the problem is self inflicted.

That's kind of what I figured!

[flintlock]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

There was a time when the USA legitimately commanded most of the high moral ground in international affairs.

In my opinion that was a long time ago. Probably ended when LBJ came in. Around that time if not sooner. The more I read of US history in the 20th century, the more I see my old perceptions were just wrong. We were not always the good guys. Vietnam, South and Central America, the Middle East. Some could be attributed to an overreaction to the Red Scare, but I see most of that was merely a rationalization to go out and make money. US corporations had a big influence in our dealings with South America and the Middle East especially. Some really bad stuff took place than most Americans have never heard of. Not that the US is alone in this kind of thing, but I just always expected better I guess.

[flintlock]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

Exactly MS. It's all well and good to overthrow a dictator. It's what happens next that really matters though. Shades of the Paris mob? France went through quite a blood-letting ( 1,000,000 plus) before they got themselves straightened out. And by that I mean well after Napoleon, whose wars cost as much as 3,000,000 more lives. For perspective, population of France in 1805 was about 30 million.

[MarkL]

Re: The Yuppie Revolution in Egypt is over, the Islamic one has just begun

Whats wrong with the church? whats wrong with the muslim brotherhood? If the people want the church and they vote and are in favor or church policies so be it. If the people in egypt want a muslim brotherhood so be it, its their country, their choice. I thought that is democracy let the people choose right?

The power for the people to vote, must be tempered by a strong constitution that protects individual liberties. Let's say that 40% of Egypt is religion "A" and religion "B" and "C" each have 30%. Should religion "A" be able to force compliance in every way on the other religions because of democracy?

This also extends to dollars. There must be a balance of power and protections in place for both the capitalists (read rich) and the poor. The poor should not simply be able to vote themselves the ethically hard-earned resources of the rich, but neither should the rich be able to take advantage of the poor with unethical practices.

BOTH groups will steal from the other if given the opportunity via power.