silver train leaving the station?

[jpetr48]

Re: Silver

Some dealers wont take sterling, so if you need to sell in a panic down draft your going to have to take a big haircut to spot.

If you live in a rural area then yes choices are limited and dealers can call the shots. If you live in major metro areas like LA, Tulving is buying at spot -1.

I have not been through a panic down draft but listening to those who have been through this, I understand the opposite will occur near top in silver- that is a high premium attached to the 90% silver junk.

[chedir007]

Re: Silver

Folks,


Here's another twist- I don't bring this angle up often since the team here is mostly facts driven, "rational" and would rightly demand consistent data.


What if the silver's paper backed price is a "pump and dump" as EJ says and collapses, but physical takes a life of its own?



Here's the context: I was very surprised to read today that TURD FERGUSON dude was interviewed on WEBBOTSFORUM.


WEBBOTS is that time monk stuff by Cliff High who thesis is that everyone (the masses) have some psychic abilities and hence, their premonitions leak out onto content on the WEB.


Cliff's technology is composed of SW "spiders" that supposedly scour and parse out web content and translate data sets into future predictions.


Their claim is a success rate of 2x chance.


(If you ever visit CLIF HIGH's website and content, you would think he is a complete nutjob. Listen to him on radio interviews however, he will come across as incredibly articulate and well read.)


Having said that, one of their key predictions for MARCH 25th was a clean miss (nothing happened) although they did "supposedly" highlight the GLOBAL Revolution, 9/11 etc.


But I don't think they even predicted the SPECIFIC Japan 2011 earthquake although in general they have called for a higher frequency of earthquakes/whacky weather.


Anyway, what is the connection with silver?


Their prediction was for "language" to start reporting 600$ or other outrageous price levels for silver mainly due to a FAILURE in DERIVATIVES (this was supposed to occur in March 25 I beleive).


They postulated that the triggering event could be a failure to deliver gold to a "select group" which would lead to a blindingly fast collapse of "paper", breakdown of banking/currency and JIT system.


Markers leading to this event were supposedly 1) 2-5$ price swings in silver (still waiting) and 2) new articles /reports of glut of houses being bulldozed (already reported - check)


I just thought it is very curious that with more mainstream sites like "Jesse Cafe" seeming to validate this COMEX/silver conspiracy stuff and now to read TURD dude saying the SCOTIA event may be the marker analogous the Tunisia man who set himself on fire.


So what are the actionable takeaways:-------------> Start switching out of AGQ derivative like instruments? Into likes of CEF which may still be paper (?)

[charliebrown]

Re: silver train leaving the station?

Silver train heading back to the station.

Thank goodness for EJs warning. On monday 5/2 I sold 25% of my unhedged position before the real pain started.
Besides EJs piece I have seen this parabolic move in other stuff before, Like Oil in 2008, or internet stocks in 1999. Calling the top is hard, but usually the Eifel tower pattern comes back to earth at some point. I sold 10% in the prior week because of the down draft, and the parabolic rise. EJ's blurb made me decide to sell more aggressively.


I still have a lot of SLV with a may 35 call written on it. I would like to see a little stabalization here at 40. I would prefer to be called out, and re load after the dust settles. If we get to 36, I will have to decide to ride out the storm, or buy back the call and sell the shares.

If we believe the silver blogs, perhaps this is a head fake by JPM to cover their shorts, and force the weak hands to sell. This was mentioned in a panic sell off in Feb of 2010. I think silver went from 20 - 12 in three days and recovered very quickly.
JPM was mentioned, in CFTC hearings as having too large of a short position relative to the market.

[Kadriana]

Re: silver train leaving the station?

Silver train heading back to the station.

Thank goodness for EJs warning. On monday 5/2 I sold 25% of my unhedged position before the real pain started.
Besides EJs piece I have seen this parabolic move in other stuff before, Like Oil in 2008, or internet stocks in 1999. Calling the top is hard, but usually the Eifel tower pattern comes back to earth at some point. I sold 10% in the prior week because of the down draft, and the parabolic rise. EJ's blurb made me decide to sell more aggressively.


I still have a lot of SLV with a may 35 call written on it. I would like to see a little stabalization here at 40. I would prefer to be called out, and re load after the dust settles. If we get to 36, I will have to decide to ride out the storm, or buy back the call and sell the shares.

If we believe the silver blogs, perhaps this is a head fake by JPM to cover their shorts, and force the weak hands to sell. This was mentioned in a panic sell off in Feb of 2010. I think silver went from 20 - 12 in three days and recovered very quickly.
JPM was mentioned, in CFTC hearings as having too large of a short position relative to the market.

I am glad my DH bought some puts where the rise was so quick there. The big thing I'm worried about is a lot of people having been waiting for a major correction. All through the 40's I read people that wanted to buy silver but thought it was too expensive. I am curious when silver settles, if you will see a rush back into silver drying up the physical market. I found it a bit weird that CNBC was talking so highly of silver today.

[metalman]

Re: silver train leaving the station?

I am glad my DH bought some puts where the rise was so quick there. The big thing I'm worried about is a lot of people having been waiting for a major correction. All through the 40's I read people that wanted to buy silver but thought it was too expensive. I am curious when silver settles, if you will see a rush back into silver drying up the physical market. I found it a bit weird that CNBC was talking so highly of silver today.

you're surprised cnbc wants to help jp morgan pull in more dupes?

[Kadriana]

Re: silver train leaving the station?

you're surprised cnbc wants to help jp morgan pull in more dupes?

I know, I shouldn't be surprised.

[jpetr48]

Re: Silver

Bears speak of what we are starting to see price of paper vs physical
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9LcK...mbedded#at=177

[jpetr48]

Re: Silver

Two scenarios in Ross's commentary 1) EJ's fall back into 20s after falling thru support at 33. it will take awhile to get back up to 50 2) Support holds at 33 and we move up beyond 60s. History says scenario 1.

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/0...stent-history/

My gut tells me the number of moving parts that we can and cant see is increasing by the day. In the end scenario one or two does not matter if you are an investor. 2013 is when the fireworks will be in full bloom.

[goadam1]

Re: Silver

Two scenarios in Ross's commentary 1) EJ's fall back into 20s after falling thru support at 33. it will take awhile to get back up to 50 2) Support holds at 33 and we move up beyond 60s. History says scenario 1.

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/0...stent-history/

My gut tells me the number of moving parts that we can and cant see is increasing by the day. In the end scenario one or two does not matter if you are an investor. 2013 is when the fireworks will be in full bloom.

So now 2013 is the time for Bearmagedon? The more people who come on board that timeline the less I think it will go down that way.

[jpetr48]

Re: Silver

ok forgive me for my "too exact comment." looking back earlier in this thread around feb 18th i did say this precious metals market has another few years of life in it- and for those who were in despair on silver not retesting the January 26th low 3 months ago, I mentioned there will be significant volatility from February on giving them another opportunity to buy. The fun has just begun.

[shiny!]

Re: Silver

Two scenarios in Ross's commentary 1) EJ's fall back into 20s after falling thru support at 33. it will take awhile to get back up to 50 2) Support holds at 33 and we move up beyond 60s. History says scenario 1.

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/0...stent-history/

My gut tells me the number of moving parts that we can and cant see is increasing by the day. In the end scenario one or two does not matter if you are an investor. 2013 is when the fireworks will be in full bloom.

Martin Armstrong wrote a short paper about the silver crash forecasting two possibilities very similar to EJ's forecast. He didn't call it ahead of time like EJ did, but he does have some pretty specific turn dates to watch. Well worth a read IMHO:

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The Silver Crash of 2011 05-06-2011.pdf

I agree with you about the increasing and increasingly unmanageable complexity. It's like a disease, not just in FIRE, but in every aspect of our society. It's insane!

[Chomsky]

Re: Silver

Two scenarios in Ross's commentary 1) EJ's fall back into 20s after falling thru support at 33. it will take awhile to get back up to 50 2) Support holds at 33 and we move up beyond 60s. History says scenario 1.

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/0...stent-history/

My gut tells me the number of moving parts that we can and cant see is increasing by the day. In the end scenario one or two does not matter if you are an investor. 2013 is when the fireworks will be in full bloom.

Broke through $33 this morning, at $32.59 right now.

[jpetr48]

Re: Silver

Broke through $33 this morning, at $32.59 right now.

What's even better news is public sentiment is at 54% a ten month low. The COT shows a commercial net short position of 42K contracts and open interest of 132K contracts.The short position is close to a two year low while open interest is 17% off the high.

May take a few weeks into June to bottom.

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver

what is your buy back in rationale and trigger - a price or a time frame? (question for everyone)

What's even better news is public sentiment is at 54% a ten month low. The COT shows a commercial net short position of 42K contracts and open interest of 132K contracts.The short position is close to a two year low while open interest is 17% off the high.

May take a few weeks into June to bottom.

[jpetr48]

Re: Silver

Shiny

Here is one of the better articles. Though the author may have bias because os his long position in SIVR, he lays out all the facts in a balanced approach.
Essentially most of the moving parts are in this article. It all boils down to no change in long term fundamentals and a greater opportunity in the near future.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2686...-low-can-it-go
Joe