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Re: Peak cheap oil....
I think we're in the early stages of phase 2 (out of 3). 3 = Mania phase.
Signs of early phase 2;
1. Less than 5% of all your family and friends have bought any silver in the past 2 years (excluding those you influenced strongly). Mania = at least 50% talking about it, and 20%+ bought in. This would result in ALL your coin/bullion stores being emptied out (not just 1 out 5).
2. MSM has only *just* started suggesting it may be a good idea to buy (last week Cramer mentioned it and also CNBC). New York Post had their first story on it.
3. Financial Reps just starting to re-think that maybe putting in 5-10% might be a good idea, but no more.
4. Cash4Gold mania has just started to perhaps simmered down. Called my dad in Portugal this week and he mentioned that after hundreds of cash4gold stores opening up all over the country in the past ~2 years, that he now noticed a few of them (less than 10%) starting to close because they can't get enough clients to keep the business running (i.e. most that would sell the family jewls for survival reasons have probably just finished doing so). After the SELL phase, will start the BUY phase. Wait until at least 30-40% of these cash4gold places close shop.
My experience at work: Out of a group of about 50 people I chat with weekly here in Western Canada, 1 was into physical PMs (coins only) and miners 1 year before I was. This past week, my boss (a highly intelligent guy) actually asked me the question if I thought Precious Metals is going to be a good investment since I mentioned I was spending some time reviewing my investment portfolio. Aside from that, nobody else is even talking about it. One other guy was into Uranium mid 2010 and was bragging he made good money, but also mentioned his dad was losing a lot of money shorting PMs expecting the crash to come any time (this was 3 months ago). My local bullion/coin stores are however mentioning that they've never had such high demand before. That said, my main bullion store though still has plenty (a couple hundred?) of 100 oz bars, but Candian Maples are on a ~4 week+ back order for the past 1.5 months.
Why the Mania hasn't hit yet:
1. Massive numbers of retail outlets aren't out of silver for months at a time (only a few here and there, and current delays are around 2-4 weeks to delivery). Mania would be when delays are 2-4months, for months on end.
2. COMEX hasn't defaulted (yet) - still 100 Million ounces left (assuming we believe their #'s). Look out for a potential SHARP decline in COMEX inventories, shortly thereafter phase 3 will start.
3. China Central Bank *just* announced they will include Silver as a form of reserve for the country. Wait till a few more countries do the same.
4. High inflation isn't yet evidenced in developed western countries from the perspective of Joe6Pak. Yes some saw gas prices ticking up last week, and food is up this week 5-10%+, but until this is a trend for many months and increasing in severity, Joe6pak will shrug his shoulders and remain on the couch drinking that 6 pack.
5. The mania in Silver and gold should be world wide, given inflation will be world wide, so the vertical parabolic spike this time could be extremely high. Hunt Bro's was mostly a fast North American event. Remember, their spike was $50.... decades ago, so adjust for inflation, we're a long ways off.
6. Premiums over spot at the coin stores are only 7-15% due to fast increase in silver prices. Mania = 30%-50% premiums
7. Wait until the MSM has economist/analyst one after the other recommend silver/gold buying at 20%+ of the portfolio every single day. When the MSM starts pumping it as the #1 fast way to make money, that might be a hint that the crash is weeks or a couple of months away.
8. Kitco silver lease rates are still below 2%. Watch for a spike to 20-30%+.
9. Evening and newspaper headlines aren't yet filled with "House theft for jewlary has increased 3 fold in the past 3 months".
For me, the #1 reason the mania hasn't hit yet is because we're due for another large global crash later this year as per EJ (Fed forced crash or China forced). The crash won't last long (TPTB globally should be more awake this time), and it will be VERY interesting to see if the Fed will QE3 for one last hurrah. I'm hoping to be able to sell *some* of my silver at the beginning of the crash and then possibly buy back in after the crash recovery starts - probably I'll keep most of my physical, just liquidate all stock forms. It will also be VERY interesting to see what the flight for safety during the crash becomes. The recent Middle East circumstances are strongly suggesting the USD may have lost some trust as the flight to safety. If it is replaced by PMs (even if only in part), then the crash induced upward price spike, could very well be the start of the mania. When the entire planet is trying to buy gold/silver, the hunt bro's $50/oz spike should be tiny by comparison.
My #2 reason - EJ hasn't yet said "Time at last to sell gold"! ;-)
My #3 reason - Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Mish haven't yet suggested that it's time to get out.
My #4 reason: My newspapers don't yet look like this:
I'd love it others also started to report in with their anectdotal stories so that we can get a more hollistic perspective from various parts of the world, to help track the mania.
1. What % are you into PMs?
2. What % of your family bought PMs in the past 2 years for investment purposes?
3. What % of your friends " " "
4. What % of your co-workers are talking about PMs and what % bought?
5. What's going on at your local coin/bullion stores?
6. What are you seeing on your MSM TV?
7. What are you seeing in your newspapers?
8. What $$ stories are people talking about at Starbucks and dinner parties?
I think we're in the early stages of phase 2 (out of 3). 3 = Mania phase.
Signs of early phase 2;
1. Less than 5% of all your family and friends have bought any silver in the past 2 years (excluding those you influenced strongly). Mania = at least 50% talking about it, and 20%+ bought in. This would result in ALL your coin/bullion stores being emptied out (not just 1 out 5).
2. MSM has only *just* started suggesting it may be a good idea to buy (last week Cramer mentioned it and also CNBC). New York Post had their first story on it.
3. Financial Reps just starting to re-think that maybe putting in 5-10% might be a good idea, but no more.
4. Cash4Gold mania has just started to perhaps simmered down. Called my dad in Portugal this week and he mentioned that after hundreds of cash4gold stores opening up all over the country in the past ~2 years, that he now noticed a few of them (less than 10%) starting to close because they can't get enough clients to keep the business running (i.e. most that would sell the family jewls for survival reasons have probably just finished doing so). After the SELL phase, will start the BUY phase. Wait until at least 30-40% of these cash4gold places close shop.
My experience at work: Out of a group of about 50 people I chat with weekly here in Western Canada, 1 was into physical PMs (coins only) and miners 1 year before I was. This past week, my boss (a highly intelligent guy) actually asked me the question if I thought Precious Metals is going to be a good investment since I mentioned I was spending some time reviewing my investment portfolio. Aside from that, nobody else is even talking about it. One other guy was into Uranium mid 2010 and was bragging he made good money, but also mentioned his dad was losing a lot of money shorting PMs expecting the crash to come any time (this was 3 months ago). My local bullion/coin stores are however mentioning that they've never had such high demand before. That said, my main bullion store though still has plenty (a couple hundred?) of 100 oz bars, but Candian Maples are on a ~4 week+ back order for the past 1.5 months.
Why the Mania hasn't hit yet:
1. Massive numbers of retail outlets aren't out of silver for months at a time (only a few here and there, and current delays are around 2-4 weeks to delivery). Mania would be when delays are 2-4months, for months on end.
2. COMEX hasn't defaulted (yet) - still 100 Million ounces left (assuming we believe their #'s). Look out for a potential SHARP decline in COMEX inventories, shortly thereafter phase 3 will start.
3. China Central Bank *just* announced they will include Silver as a form of reserve for the country. Wait till a few more countries do the same.
4. High inflation isn't yet evidenced in developed western countries from the perspective of Joe6Pak. Yes some saw gas prices ticking up last week, and food is up this week 5-10%+, but until this is a trend for many months and increasing in severity, Joe6pak will shrug his shoulders and remain on the couch drinking that 6 pack.
5. The mania in Silver and gold should be world wide, given inflation will be world wide, so the vertical parabolic spike this time could be extremely high. Hunt Bro's was mostly a fast North American event. Remember, their spike was $50.... decades ago, so adjust for inflation, we're a long ways off.
6. Premiums over spot at the coin stores are only 7-15% due to fast increase in silver prices. Mania = 30%-50% premiums
7. Wait until the MSM has economist/analyst one after the other recommend silver/gold buying at 20%+ of the portfolio every single day. When the MSM starts pumping it as the #1 fast way to make money, that might be a hint that the crash is weeks or a couple of months away.
8. Kitco silver lease rates are still below 2%. Watch for a spike to 20-30%+.
9. Evening and newspaper headlines aren't yet filled with "House theft for jewlary has increased 3 fold in the past 3 months".
For me, the #1 reason the mania hasn't hit yet is because we're due for another large global crash later this year as per EJ (Fed forced crash or China forced). The crash won't last long (TPTB globally should be more awake this time), and it will be VERY interesting to see if the Fed will QE3 for one last hurrah. I'm hoping to be able to sell *some* of my silver at the beginning of the crash and then possibly buy back in after the crash recovery starts - probably I'll keep most of my physical, just liquidate all stock forms. It will also be VERY interesting to see what the flight for safety during the crash becomes. The recent Middle East circumstances are strongly suggesting the USD may have lost some trust as the flight to safety. If it is replaced by PMs (even if only in part), then the crash induced upward price spike, could very well be the start of the mania. When the entire planet is trying to buy gold/silver, the hunt bro's $50/oz spike should be tiny by comparison.
My #2 reason - EJ hasn't yet said "Time at last to sell gold"! ;-)
My #3 reason - Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Mish haven't yet suggested that it's time to get out.
My #4 reason: My newspapers don't yet look like this:
I'd love it others also started to report in with their anectdotal stories so that we can get a more hollistic perspective from various parts of the world, to help track the mania.
1. What % are you into PMs?
2. What % of your family bought PMs in the past 2 years for investment purposes?
3. What % of your friends " " "
4. What % of your co-workers are talking about PMs and what % bought?
5. What's going on at your local coin/bullion stores?
6. What are you seeing on your MSM TV?
7. What are you seeing in your newspapers?
8. What $$ stories are people talking about at Starbucks and dinner parties?
to pay for a book I wanted. I think in a few more months, he'll be of the mindset not to make that mistake again.
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