silver train leaving the station?

[chedir007]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Interesting plan and trigger points to exchange silver for gold if the gold/silver ratio continues to decline.


http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/03...ver-plan-.html

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Barely 3 months into the year and the US mint runs out of Silver to produce Eagles. Hope you got yours, before premiums shoot up.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sil...r-coin-product

[aaron]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

isn't that a year old? It is 2011 now.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

isn't that a year old? It is 2011 now.

That is my understanding as well: this is old news and referred to Uncirculated Eagles and not Bullion Eagles on top of that.

ZH dropped the ball on this.

[lektrode]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

That is my understanding as well: this is old news and referred to Uncirculated Eagles and not Bullion Eagles on top of that.

ZH dropped the ball on this.

but hey!
why squash a perfectly good rumor, esp when it stokes up the coals?

dont see any sign of shortage on:
http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/cate...er+Eagles.aspx
(and 'only' 18820 for a monsterbox)
but are we getting frothy here or what?: 2010's at 37.64 / 2011's at 38.09,
and why would there be a diff in price tween 10/11's ? just cuz collectors have their fill of prev year?

i bailed out of my CDE yest (to redeploy/convert to UT lift tickets next month... ;)
anybody want to hazzard a read of 'the crystal ball' here?

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

I have a feeling ZH borrowed the "news" from Silverseek.com. This was their March 2nd, 2011 article:
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1299088560.php

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

The silver conspiracy (?) theory finally makes it to the New York times, albeit to an editor's blog, not necessarily front page news (yet).

A Conspiracy With a Silver Lining

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com...ver-lining/?hp

Concluding paragraphs:

"Some two-and-a-half years later, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s investigation is still unresolved, and at least one commissioner — Bart Chilton — thinks that after interviewing more than 32 people and reviewing more than 40,000 documents, there has been enough investigating and not enough prosecuting. “More than two years ago, the agency began an investigation into silver markets,” Chilton said at a commission hearing last October. “I have been urging the agency to say something on the matter for months … I believe violations to the Commodity Exchange Act have taken place in silver markets and that any such violation of the law in this regard should be prosecuted.

What’s more, Chilton said in an interview last week, that “one participant” in the silver market still controlled 35 percent of the silver market as recently as a few months ago, “enough to move prices,” he said, and well above the 10 percent “position limits” the commission has proposed to comply with Dodd-Frank financial reform law. Since that law’s passage last summer, the commodities exchanges have issued waivers permitting the ownership of silver positions above the limits the C.F.T.C. has proposed, and which were supposed to be in place by January of this year. Yet the waivers remain in place, and the big traders have not been penalized, much to Chilton’s frustration And the mystery deepens: last Thursday, the price of silver fell $1.50 per ounce in less than an hour before recovering. “This was robbery at its most obvious and most vindictive,” wrote Richard Guthrie, a London-based trader, in an e-mail to Chilton. “How many investors lost money and positions to the financial benefit of an elite few?

It’s getting harder and harder to continue to brush off Andrew Maguire’s claims as the rantings of a rogue trader with a nutty online following. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission should immediately release the files from its investigation into the supposed manipulation of the silver market so the public can determine whether JPMorganChase and HSBC did anything illegal, with or without the help of the Fed. In addition, the commission should start enforcing the 10 percent threshold on silver positions it has proposed to comply with Dodd-Frank law. Basically, the other commissioners must join with Bart Chilton to do the job they are required to do: Protecting the sanctity of the markets and preventing the sorts of manipulation we’ve seen all too often."

[Spartacus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Noting how damn hard it is to stay balanced & skeptical with this kind of week / month.

I may need to start taking luudes. Got any?

The silver conspiracy (?) theory finally makes it to the New York times, albeit to an editor's blog, not necessarily front page news (yet).

A Conspiracy With a Silver Lining

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com...ver-lining/?hp

Too much to hope for? The very next day some rich New Yorker New Yorkers (the people so rich they got named twice) start running the price up?

(price Au)/(price Ag) now 40.2

[lektrode]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Noting how damn hard it is to stay balanced & skeptical with this kind of week / month.

I may need to start taking luudes. Got any?

no, but i just cracked my first can o schweppes for the fryday afternoon V&T's (and limes all of a sudden got cheap last week ;)

Too much to hope for? The very next day some rich New Yorker New Yorkers (the people so rich they got named twice) start running the price up?

(price Au)/(price Ag) now 40.2

so i guess the question is: ARE WE AT OR NEAR AN INTERIM TOP?
like, say, all of a sudden 'the facts' reveal the supposed short squeeze is a hoax?
or will evidence be shown that causes a stampede IN to ag?

from: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com...ver-lining/?hp

“More than two years ago, the agency began an investigation into silver markets,” Chilton said at a commission hearing last October. “I have been urging the agency to say something on the matter for months … I believe violations to the Commodity Exchange Act have taken place in silver markets and that any such violation of the law in this regard should be prosecuted.” What’s more, Chilton said in an interview last week, that “one participant” in the silver market still controlled 35 percent of the silver market as recently as a few months ago, “enough to move prices,” he said, and well above the 10 percent “position limits” the commission has proposed to comply with Dodd-Frank financial reform law. Since that law’s passage last summer, the commodities exchanges have issued waivers permitting the ownership of silver positions above the limits the C.F.T.C. has proposed, and which were supposed to be in place by January of this year. Yet the waivers remain in place, and the big traders have not been penalized, much to Chilton’s frustration And the mystery deepens: last Thursday, the price of silver fell $1.50 per ounce in less than an hour before recovering. “This was robbery at its most obvious and most vindictive,” wrote Richard Guthrie, a London-based trader, in an e-mail to Chilton. “How many investors lost money and positions to the financial benefit of an elite few?”
It’s getting harder and harder to continue to brush off Andrew Maguire’s claims as the rantings of a rogue trader with a nutty online following. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission should immediately release the files from its investigation into the supposed manipulation of the silver market so the public can determine whether JPMorganChase and HSBC did anything illegal, with or without the help of the Fed. In addition, the commission should start enforcing the 10 percent threshold on silver positions it has proposed to comply with Dodd-Frank law. Basically, the other commissioners must join with Bart Chilton to do the job they are required to do: Protecting the sanctity of the markets and preventing the sorts of manipulation we’ve seen all too often.


---------
that last sentence = rich, isnt it? (with irony, esp for a NYT finance commentator)


but OK - lets parse this one out - where are we on the graph, assuming there is, in fact, a 'short squeeze' happening to JPM et al? from whats been discussed here recently, would think we're just getting going on the ride up? (disclaimer: i havent any idea about what i'm talking about here, WHY I'M ASKING...)


or has most of the ride up already occurred and we're riding along the upper plateau (just before the smart money pulls the trigger - and will the sell off go to gold?)

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

where are we on the graph, assuming there is, in fact, a 'short squeeze' happening to JPM et al?

Last I heard from the rumour mill (somewhere in about 6 different silver blogs I follow - sorry I can't URL it for you), they've supposedly unwound some 1/3 of their position in the past few months. So 2/3 to go? Who knows? The latest (crazy) rumour is that those standing for physical delivery at the comex recently were bribed upwards of 80% on top of spot to accept a cash settlement instead. Even if some were to receive only 20%, this would be incentive to come back for round two during the next delivery date with at least that extra 20% more + a whole bunch of friends and their speculative $$ - not to mention that not delivering physical on a contract probably constitutes of fraud, but what do I know? (not much)

I'm just sticking to fundamentals, which do suggest silver can still easily double from here in the next 2 years. It could also crash and burn 30-60% if the Fed ends the QE party in June and crashes global stock markets, or if Oil spikes and settles around $140 or $150 USD/barrel, triggering another recession (and stock market unwind) as per one of EJ's thesis. Then there's the China crash potential, bringing global commodities to a standstill, then mass reversal.

I think Silver will continue to go up until at least early summer for the following reasons:
1. The QE party is on until at least June
2. Arabic revolutions are likely to continue to intensify over the next few months due to the self-perpetuating food-oil revolution cycle. Libya burns oil field (yesterday), oil prices go up, transportation costs go up, food inflation increases (remember, not much areable land in desert countries), high food costs spark increased revolutions in existing protesting arabic countries + others not yet in full protest mode, more protests = higher risk to producting oil sector in arabic countries. As oil goes, so goes gold. As gold goes, so goes silver x 2.
3. So long as China's economy does not blow up, the global commodity party continues. Lookout below when the music stops though!

In short, keep your eye on Oil, China & the Fed. I think the Europe domino collapse is still on, but maybe we can save that one for 2012. Don't want to shoot all the fireworks at once now. The only other mass-event I'm aware of is the US muni-bond crisis. I haven't quite wrapped my head around the global impact of that one.

In the short term, barring any more excessive escalation in the Arabic countries (i.e. Gadaffi goes even more ballistic on his people with imported/paid off terrorists, or the rumoured March 11th Saudi Arabia protests go off the rails, Algeria protests escalate further), then silver *may* trade sideways for a bit, until the next COMEX delivery date, then expect further upward acceleration due to speculation surrounding potential COMEX physical default for the Nth time.

2011 Key (obvious) macro risks (excluding black swans):




Longer term Macro synthesis influencing everything including Silver:

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gue...al-2011-themes



At the current pace, we'll see $40 by May, 2011, after that... to the Moon!


Adeptus

[jpetr48]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

This increase reminds of what happened when I entered last September. Corrections were expected but silver kept rising.
Let's think what is different
1. The weekly chart shows silver breaking out of a 1 year consolidation in Sept. This breakout is a not a retracement from January low, it a parabolic increase.
2. Public opinion was at a low in Sept, it is now at its third high the past 12 months - other highs were Feb 2010 and Nov 2010. The attached shows opinion reaching top of Bollinger band now
3. Consider reward to risk ratio. My simple litmus is look at crossing of 50 day ma on weekly chart. Compare this to gold's chart-use stockcharts.com
4. Whenever a price goes parabolic, rockets vertical to massive gains in a short period of time, it creates a sense of euphoria amongst its traders. So with silver up 25% in just 1 month, odds are most of the capital that wants to buy silver has already bought in. With all interested buyers likely deployed, there just aren’t enough new buyers to offset selling pressure from profit-taking. Unless joesix pack starts to enter the market?? Take a look at a wheat monthly chart for what happens after a parabola increase in 2002 and 2007.

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Sorry, couldn't resist....

[chedir007]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

"Unless joesix pack starts to enter the market??"


I feel there is a strong possibility the masses are starting to enter- the signs are there but I have no quantifiable/tangible numbers or its sensitivity/impact on small silver market:


- As CNBC recent clip (posted in forum) with Warren Buffet also concurred with interviewer- perception is that inflection point has occurred regarding inflation and time to address deficit risks (default option is "to inflate").


- Global conscious has picked up "inflation" as seen daily by their food and gas prices.


- You get bloggers like these highlighting that possibly millions of the masses are listening to upcoming dire scenarios

http://www.youtube.com/user/silverfu.../2/xxvS8gBFs7I


- The corruption of the our industrial complexes (financial, medical, military etc- see EJ's book) may be starting to be noticed: "Inside job" wins the OSCARs, Dr. OZ (Oprah's entourage) had a show last week on MDs behaviour/practices steered towards "profits" rather than patient actual needs/root causes.



As the masses realize the need to grasp something "real' in a world of lies and fraud, it will be easier to get into silver as opposed to gold.


I am overweight in silver- but the 50 weekly MA of gold and silver respectively was an eye opener - Silver does look technically scary.

[lektrode]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

"Unless joesix pack starts to enter the market??"
...
I feel there is a strong possibility the masses are starting to enter- the signs are there but I have no quantifiable/tangible numbers or its sensitivity/impact on small silver market:
...
As the masses realize the need to grasp something "real' in a world of lies and fraud, it will be easier to get into silver as opposed to gold.

why i started buying eagles last spring, but then my cashflow dried up going into summer, so i stopped (right at the wrong moment, dammit!)

....
I am overweight in silver- but the 50 weekly MA of gold and silver respectively was an eye opener - Silver does look technically scary.

exactly.... that SPIKE is just so..so... threatening-chlling looking = why i sold my CDE this past week, for a gain of 80% (mostly for seasonal/income reasons: lousy feb for me, biz wise and spring in the rockies/wasatch beckons)

and 'conventional wisdom' states: when joe6pack goes in, usually thats when the 'smartmoney' sells, is it not?
speaking/writing as one of joes cuzzins... (V&T guy that i am...) my observation of these 'manias' (nasdaq in 1999, housing in 2006, oil in 2008, grains/hogs in 2010, gold 201x ?) it seems that just as the herd gets interested, the big money sells into the rally and walks away with most of the upside run - again eye see same thing happening - or - the $64000 question: are we still early in the game yet?

anyone for a 'show of hands' ?:

1: better than even money odds silver sees 50 or higher by may, zigs/zags-keeps on going (barring a swan flyin by)
or
2: pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered; take some off the table while the upward momentum is there
or
3: JPM et al are still sweatin, china/india are gobbling up all they can get and we aint seen nuthin yet: buy baby, B U Y

and, if 1 & 3 are good answers, what kind of a %drop would make you add to your holdings in the near term ?

(long term i think bernanke&co is trippin/lying thru their teeth and almost everything is going up in dollar terms, but i cant bet much, as i simply dont have any 'longterm' money, beyond a year or so of living expenses and not very good biz prospects short term - in years past, i wouldve bought rolls of wire, a/c pumps, refrig condensor assys etc this time of year - but confidence is low at the moment, and getting stuck with inventory is worse than having no work - but just sittin in cash is getting scarier by the week)

thanks to the commenters here - i suspect theres lots of lurkers watching, who - like me (smalltimers) - are trying to make sense of whats going on, so we dont get hosed by just another (short term) sucker rally

[jpetr48]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Right now the commercials and large traders are fading as the small speculator is increasing longs. We are not at maximum or minimum values yet but we all know what's coming next short term. Intermediate term, my charts show silver can get close to 46-47 by end of this year maybe sooner- confidence level 60%. If silver does close at 46 with gold close to 2000 we are near a 42 to 1 ratio. Just my guess that with impact of inflation being felt more in q2 silver may make a nice run into second half.

Having been in two speculative housing markets in CA (late 80s and recently), this silver mania looks awfully familiar. So taking into account this rally has 4-5 years left, I am exercising patience and waiting for the next bottom. Someone said joesixpack is in when we are talking about gold or silver junior miners rather than Intel at a party. That may be a stretch but once the money starts flowing into leveraged investments, like our real estate mortgage market, consider preserving your assets and start taking profits.
Joe (aka joesixpack-just kidding)