silver train leaving the station?

[cjppjc]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

I was told recently that the proofs were losing their premium. The uncirculated are doing great, but is the premium comming off the proofs at coin shops?

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

'History never repeats itself...
...but I sure love it when it rhymes!'

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And tonight, while Blythe sleeps through the closed London Markets...
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$49.70!!!!!!!

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People, meet the Hunt Brother's pet... apparently, they forgot to include him in the lawsuit!
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PS. Don't worry, the train has only now reached the Kennedy Space center, the lift off into the stratosphere will commence soon enough..ALL ABOARD!!!.. The 1980's inflation adjusted $48.70 peak = $127+ in 2011 dollars ;-)

[mliu_01]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Eric Townsend and Karl denninger said you can't eat silver.

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

Eric Townsend and Karl denninger said you can't eat silver.

LOL... and you can eat Federal Reserve Notes? Quick, somebody patent this new diet!! Oh wait, at the rate the Bernanke is printing them dollars, it could actually result in instant obesity! And you thought McDonalds was junk food.

[Adeptus]

Re: Peak cheap oil....

The below comments are in response to the silver vs gold discussion started on page 5 of part 2 EJ's latest article "Global Monetary Meltdown". I'm replying here so as to not derail that thread into a discussion that's not the main focus of the article.


I don't believe for a second that the 'masses' are really investing in silver (yet). I look around my circle of friends, family and work people, and less than 10% are even aware of what's happened to the price of silver. Maybe 2-5% have any PM investment at all, so I think we're far from mass euphoria. Further, if we consider the global physical inventories of silver available for investment purposes, it's not too hard to see how the price can still double, tripple or morefrom here. The COMEX currently claims they have 101 Million ounces of physical silver, of which only 35 Million is registered and capable of being delivered upon for futures contracts, the remaining 66 Million are allocated as "eligible" which means somebody (likely large banks) already have their name on it and it can't be used to settle futures contracts; however some of those large banks may very well intend on selling it to their customers (i.e. Scotia Moccatta who owns at least 7 of those 101 Million oz). Historically, that COMEX silver is delivered to the industry for all kinds of commercial uses: i.e. electronics, mirrors, photography, jewlery etc, and not so much for investment purposes. But lets use a round number of say 50 Million ounces that can get sold and delivered into the market as physical silver for purely crash-JP-Morgan speculators/investors. At $45/oz today that's $2.3 Billion worth. So all it would take is 230,000 people to buy $10,000 worth each. Does North America have 230,000 people willing to invest 10K into silver? For sure! Of course this isn't a linear equation... as demand escalates so does price... so maybe it will take 1 Million people to buy up all that COMEX silver between $50 to $150... then what? Then the paper markets collapse and physical costs go HYPER-bolic (this arguement would be true for North America but not necessarily for Europe who relies on the LBMA not the COMEX for physical delivery, and LBMA has its own inventories levels - I couldn't quickly find those numbers after searching for 10 mins, maybe somebody else can post them). Normally you could argue that physical never runs out as price just keeps going up until people stop buying, but that's in 1:1 ratio markets, we're talking 10:1 upwards of 100:1 ratios here with all the paper leverage - so physical will run out before the price goes up at a 90 degree angle. You can't come up with such an arguement for gold, because a) It's 30+ times the price b) There's over 1 TRILLION worth for investment purposes available (I think I actually read 3.3 to 6 Trillion somewhere). We're not going to run out of gold for investment purposes, but we're getting pretty close to running out of physical silver in the not too distant future.

[Adeptus]

Silver

Here's the silver action based on Bernanke's speech today... FED credibility has now eroded to ZERO. Gold is up too to a new record high!

[jiimbergin]

Re: Silver

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot...charts_27.html
27 April 2011

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Blythe Standing In the Cold Après Ski




Yesterday was options expiration and the precious metals were clubbed mercilessly and clumsily, with little attempt to hide it.

Today the metals markets rebounded strongly after a somewhat weak start.

As I had mentioned I came out of cash and bought the dip in the precious metals sector yesterday, rather heavily, running cash to effectively zero. There was picking up the fallen among those wild tigers, the silver miners, and in some size. Their beta is pretty impressive, and nice when it runs your way.

The buys in the stocks that had fallen to long term support were big fat targets. And they bounced with a vicious flourish today, gaining momentum steadily after the FOMC announcement.

I flipped the hedges early, and just let the metals run into the afternoon, trimming back into the close to raise some cash back again for more opportunistic buys. I like to get my money off the table and let the profits run.

So what next? The formation on the gold chart looks good, and the support on the correction helped to draw the cup of the inverse head and shoulders a little more firmly. Yes there will be draw downs and corrections along the way, but gold looks headed for 1590 and probably beyond, but one leg at a time.

Silver is a juggernaut. I had to force myself to buy heavily in that rugby scrum of a market yesterday and it paid off with one of my best one day gains for the last couple of years.

Thanks Blythe. You're the best, baby.

Ein Prosit, ein Prosit
Der Gemütlichkeit
Ein Prosit, ein Prosit
Der Gemütlichkeit.

OANS ZWOA DREI! G'SUFFA!

Ziggy zoggy ziggy zoggy oi oi oi

[lektrode]

Re: Silver

Here's the silver action based on Bernanke's speech today... FED credibility has now eroded to ZERO. Gold is up too to a new record high!

mahalo mr A!
this rollercoaster = def an E Ticket, eh?
only a little bit sorry i sold the other day as i need the liquidity at the moment and did score 115% gain - and EJ apparently did same, so i dont feel so bad ;) - and tho wish i had read the turd over the weekend, as might've gone in deeper on the drop, cept i'm not feeling like a gambling, since my cashflow is at an ebb, seasonally... feeling good about my move, none the less...

but question remains: since lots of people, incl the turd, are still seeing an interim top approaching tween now and sometime in june, what will be the signs to look for that its time to re-load and when do you think that top will be?

[jiimbergin]

Re: Silver

mahalo mr A!
this rollercoaster = def an E Ticket, eh?
only a little bit sorry i sold the other day as i need the liquidity at the moment and did score 115% gain - and EJ apparently did same, so i dont feel so bad ;) - and tho wish i had read the turd over the weekend, as might've gone in deeper on the drop, cept i'm not feeling like a gambling, since my cashflow is at an ebb, seasonally... feeling good about my move, none the less...

but question remains: since lots of people, incl the turd, are still seeing an interim top approaching tween now and sometime in june, what will be the signs to look for that its time to re-load and when do you think that top will be?

I did reduce my silver exposure yesterday but did buy back some of it this morning. I would watch some of the other sites such as Jesse that are more interested in silver than itulip is.

[charliebrown]

Re: Silver

Ahh crap so did I.

My target is 5% of worth in silver, and I was up to 7% before yesterday. I sold .2% yesterday (paper PSLV). I hate selling into a fire storm, but given the parabolic rise, I thought this is the start of the pullback I have been waiting for. I will sell another block maybe next week. BTW I'm trading it for gold which I am not at my target percentage yet (GTU).

I'm also getting rid of my junk silver (sterling) and trading for bullion silver .999, or u.s. coins. They are far more fungible. Some dealers wont take sterling, so if you need to sell in a panic down draft your going to have to take a big haircut to spot.

[Adeptus]

Re: Silver

mahalo mr A!
this rollercoaster = def an E Ticket, eh?

My brain's CPU cycles were peaking as I was trying to make sense of what you wrote. What's an "E ticket"? Please write in English, otherwise I may need to ask you to mail me a decoder ring.

but question remains: since lots of people, incl the turd, are still seeing an interim top approaching tween now and sometime in june, what will be the signs to look for that its time to re-load and when do you think that top will be?

I'm personally not buying any more physical silver, as I've accumulated all I needed @ $30 and below. But for those that haven't yet, I think the same concepts continue to apply, namely:

• BTFD (Buy The F'in Dips); where "dip" = somewhere between 10-20%.
• Seasonal Charts - Always consider historical seasonal PM charts before buying or selling.
• Fundamentals: Keep your eye on the supply/demand picture; namely what's happening in the COMEX & LBMA, and related news.
• TA is your friend (TA = technical analysis). If you're not an expert, then find 3 or 4, and when they all agree, take the signals seriously. You already know Turd, so I would suggest Ira Epstein (youtube that), and Trader Dan's blog
• Experts: TA only goes so far, when so much supposed market manipulation is going on. So listen to the following people regularly and take appropriate action:
  • EJ - Follow his long term advice
  • Jim Rogers - Follow his weekly advice
  • Marc Faber - Follow his monthly advice
  • Ben Bernanke - Do the opposite of what he says (see chart above)
• Study the industry - daily:
  • Read books from successful industry experts
  • Listen to interviews on Financial Sense Newshour
  • Listen to interviews on Erik King
  • Listen to interviews on GoldSeek
  • Keep an eye daily on ZH headlines

Don't listen to my predictions, I'm just an enthusiastic amateur with a bias (fully invested). But do consider the opinions of ***successful*** industry experts (see other links I've provided in other posts in this thread), and above all else, do your own due dilligence.

Good luck!

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver

I have to resist the temptation to label him a "great man" just because he speaks to my own prejudices here ...

I knew options expiry was coming, and I knew what to expect; I just wish SOME damn ONE would post some fershluginer screen shots of these massive spoof orders JPM & their cronies allegedly use to suppress the price around options expiration.

I assume these and better proof of these spoof orders exists because the lawyers in those suits will have to cough up proof in discovery. I just wish I could SEE THE PROOF, NOW.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot...charts_27.html
27 April 2011

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Blythe Standing In the Cold Après Ski

Yesterday was options expiration and the precious metals were clubbed mercilessly and clumsily, with little attempt to hide it.


Ziggy zoggy ziggy zoggy oi oi oi

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver

this rollercoaster = def an E Ticket, eh?

I assume he probably meant that first hit

I thought at 1st glance it was a NY subway rider's inside joke, but that "eh" at the end would be perplexing coming from a NYer, eh squire?

[Kadriana]

Re: Silver

I often say that I'm done buying silver. It's interesting how pieces will just wander into the collection.

[Spartacus]

Re: Silver

Don't listen to my predictions, I'm just an enthusiastic amateur with a bias (fully invested). But do consider the opinions of ***successful*** industry experts (see other links I've provided in other posts in this thread), and above all else, do your own due dilligence

Telling people your position is a good technique to stay somewhat objective.

So is repeating some mantra(without it becoming automatic, mindless repetition) relevant to Silver in all your posts, something like

"IFF you can live with volatility"
"past results are no guarantee ... "
"the price action's making it damn hard to be skeptical of the "RAH RAH!" cheerleaders"

I must disagree with one point though: "... successful industry experts" ... runs into survivorship bias and questions of luck. One still must examine successful expert opinion through skeptical lenses. If these experts write non-sensical stuff, their past success should be attributed to something other than their analysis or writing - their gut sense perhaps, or again, luck.

I read those analyses but give them no extra weight.