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“Beginning in 2006, NAR’s sales numbers began to look even more inflated relative to data collected by CoreLogic, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the U.S. Census Bureau, a trend that has “continued and become more pronounced through 2010,” CoreLogic said in the February edition of its monthly report, “U.S. Housing and Mortgage Trends.”
Over the years, I have been a fairly consistent critic of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). I have accused them of being drunk, hallucinating, cheerleaders of the RE sector, regardless of the reality. I have savaged their inane promotional stunts — Recall “Its always a good time to (generate a commission) buy or sell a house!”
My criticism about the NAR was about the nonsensical commentary that always seem to accompany their data. I never had cause to challenge their actual reporting of Real Estate sales.
Until now.
CoreLogic, the property data aggregator, claims in a new report that “home sales fell more sharply last year than previously thought.” According to CoreLogic, statistics published by the National Association of Realtors overstate sales of existing homes by 15 to 20%.
That is the polite way to describe it; The NAR sales data showed that residential RE sales fell 5%, but according to CoreLogic’s data, the fall was actually 12%.
The impact of this could be substantial. Consider inventory — using CoreLogic;s methodology, unsold inventory in November 2010 was 16 months of supply, not the 9.5 months the NAR claimed.
Until the NAR does their benchmark revisions to historic sales data (later this year), I will assume that there will not be any resolution of this. I am loathe to give the benefit of the doubt to the NAR, but calling them data cheats maybe premature at this time. Sure, I have called them fools and eejits over the years, mocked them mercilessly for their money-losing blatherings, but I have never had reason to believe they were purposefully fudging the data.
If that turns out to be true, I will call for a full investigation and prosecution of them, but for now, I am willing to reserve judgment.
By Barry Ritholtz - February 17th, 2011
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02...ting-re-sales/
Over the years, I have been a fairly consistent critic of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). I have accused them of being drunk, hallucinating, cheerleaders of the RE sector, regardless of the reality. I have savaged their inane promotional stunts — Recall “Its always a good time to (generate a commission) buy or sell a house!”
My criticism about the NAR was about the nonsensical commentary that always seem to accompany their data. I never had cause to challenge their actual reporting of Real Estate sales.
Until now.
CoreLogic, the property data aggregator, claims in a new report that “home sales fell more sharply last year than previously thought.” According to CoreLogic, statistics published by the National Association of Realtors overstate sales of existing homes by 15 to 20%.
That is the polite way to describe it; The NAR sales data showed that residential RE sales fell 5%, but according to CoreLogic’s data, the fall was actually 12%.
The impact of this could be substantial. Consider inventory — using CoreLogic;s methodology, unsold inventory in November 2010 was 16 months of supply, not the 9.5 months the NAR claimed.
Until the NAR does their benchmark revisions to historic sales data (later this year), I will assume that there will not be any resolution of this. I am loathe to give the benefit of the doubt to the NAR, but calling them data cheats maybe premature at this time. Sure, I have called them fools and eejits over the years, mocked them mercilessly for their money-losing blatherings, but I have never had reason to believe they were purposefully fudging the data.
If that turns out to be true, I will call for a full investigation and prosecution of them, but for now, I am willing to reserve judgment.
By Barry Ritholtz - February 17th, 2011
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02...ting-re-sales/