Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

[Spartacus]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

Mostly I agree with this point, but just to profide you one (anecdotal) data point - real estate is tax-advantaged in India.

Many of my relatives in India have been telling me for 5 years that real estate is THE guaranteed way to get rich. And this is rural northern India, not Bangalore or Mumbai.

They're constantly telling me to visit and buy a condo or 20, which I'll be able (or so they guarantee) to sell for five times what I paid in 5 years.

They regale me of stories of people buying buildings and tracts of land and selling them a little while later for huge profits. The vernacular of the boards has not reached them yet, but any time now I expect to start getting emails from them with the subject "TO TEH NOOOOOM!!!!!!"

Spartacus -

The FIRE economy is primarily an American construct. It spills over elsewhere, but the overwhelming downside will be for the US. The cultural flaw so many North Americans on this website seem subject to is to not fully appreciate the powerful dynamic of the industrialising world, which is rapidly outstripping the US in aggregate size, and is most emphatically NOT the FIRE economy.

[Guest]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

Spartacus -

I guess this part of the FIRE economy ("can't miss" real estate) indeed has swarmed into India and many other countries. If I were in your shoes with all those relatives yelling at me to get 20 condos to become a billionaire I would have fled away also. :rolleyes:

Spartacus - 01

Lukester - 00 ( :mad::mad::mad: )

[Guest]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

Sapiens -

(" Back to basics my boy, back to basics ") ???

If you say so Sapiens. The Oracle has spoken.

[Spartacus]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

No need to keep score - I wasn't arguing with you, just taking information from you and giving you some in return.

I mostly agree that the FIRE sector (especially finance) proportionally in the US is bigger than most of the rest of the world, but the FIRE dynamics (privileged tax treatment for real estate, easier credit for real estate than for industry, etc... ) is widespread.

Spartacus -

I guess this part of the FIRE economy ("can't miss" real estate) indeed has swarmed into India and many other countries. If I were in your shoes with all those relatives yelling at me to get 20 condos to become a billionaire I would have fled away also

I Didn't flee - I was born in Canada .... apparently my accent when I speak Hindi or Punjabi is atrocious.

[Spartacus]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

Denominated in USD?

That's an invisible bet, innit guv?

How about some money in Yen, Euro & AusDollar equivalents of treasuries to offset that bet?

What's wrong with short-term Treasury bills?
Cheaper than a safe . . . and who better to keep your money with than the folks that make the stuff? They'll just print more when it's time to pay you back.

[Guest]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

Spartacus -

You seem to be reading things a bit humorlessly.

I was joking about keeping any kind of "score" - it is what I believe among sophisticated people is called "self-deprecating humor" (that means humor I engage in at my own expense?), but maybe you missed it?

I don't care a jot about who gets debating points. And you are also misunderstanding my figure of speech about my also being inclined to 'flee' relatives who clamor for me to buy real estate. It's a figure of speech, Spartacus - not a silly veiled suggestion you might have been fleeing from anyone or anything.

I'm the last person in the world to be a bigot about anyone - as I've lived and traveled all over the world myself. I went through secondary school living in West Africa for heaven's sake. If you imagine I was making some unfortunate suggestion that you were a 'refugee' from India to Canada and not a native Canadian, you are sorely mistaken.

Perhaps you encounter such attitudes amongst your own people which make you unecessarily defensive about being a native Canadian? - If so, please confine your defensiveness to them, as you will not encounter the smallest trace of it in me. I'm a New Yorker - we are the biggest melting pot in the world, and we take great pride in it!

Look carefully at whom you communicate with here, and examine their other posts for any trace of a small-town mentality before you assume it of them.

[c1ue]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

This maybe should go into the 'why hasn't gold jumped' threads, but here's someone who makes Lukester look like me :p

Doug Casey via Kitco

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1530

If an American doesn’t get significant assets outside the U.S. now, it may be impossible in the future. The best thing to do is buy real estate abroad, since it’s currently not reportable, like bank and brokerage accounts, and they can’t very well make you repatriate it.

My takeaway from this is that it illustrates another worry about gold or any investment in dollars: the government could conceivably enact currency controls or act on asset seizures.

Not good!

[Spartacus]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

I did think you were serious about keeping score.

I didn't think any of the rest of this ... maybe you in turn missed the point of me having an atrocious accent?

EDIT: I didn't think it until I read it, now I don't know what to think ... I've caused some kind of offense and I apologize for it. I'm not a native Canadian, and I took NO offense at anything you wrote.

Spartacus -

You seem to be reading things a bit humorlessly.

I was joking about keeping any kind of "score" - it is what I believe among sophisticated people is called "self-deprecating humor" (that means humor I engage in at my own expense?), but maybe you missed it?

I don't care a jot about who gets debating points. And you are also misunderstanding my figure of speech about my also being inclined to 'flee' relatives who clamor for me to buy real estate. It's a figure of speech, Spartacus - not a silly veiled suggestion you might have been fleeing from anyone or anything.

I'm the last person in the world to be a bigot about anyone - as I've lived and traveled all over the world myself. I went through secondary school living in West Africa for heaven's sake. If you imagine I was making some unfortunate suggestion that you were a 'refugee' from India to Canada and not a native Canadian, you are sorely mistaken.

Perhaps you encounter such attitudes amongst your own people which make you unecessarily defensive about being a native Canadian? - If so, please confine your defensiveness to them, as you will not encounter the smallest trace of it in me. I'm a New Yorker - we are the biggest melting pot in the world, and we take great pride in it!

Look carefully at whom you communicate with here, and examine their other posts for any trace of a small-town mentality before you assume it of them.

[Guest]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

Spartacus -

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

---

• 1
• 

Denominated in USD?

That's an invisible bet, innit guv?

How about some money in Yen, Euro & AusDollar equivalents of treasuries to offset that bet?

Quote:

Originally Posted by raja What's wrong with short-term Treasury bills? Cheaper than a safe . . . and who better to keep your money with than the folks that make the stuff? They'll just print more when it's time to pay you back.

Er - I believe Raja was speaking somewhat tongue-in-cheek? Where's your sense of humor today? You seem to be taking every last comment 100% literally, and in doing so, losing the meaning?

[Guest]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

Clue -

You've put your finger right on my biggest worry - impounds and currency controls.

[Guest]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

Spartacus -

Please accept my apologies in turn. I've found your posts here to be always among the best informed.

And for the record, I am actually a huge fan of India, as the country that will counterbalance China among the 21st Century giants. Western pluralistic democracies (and I am among those who agree they have lots of really bad history!) will look to India to pick up the baton of democracy and carry it far into the 21st Century. If we leave it all to mainland China, the world will have big problems! Their government remains a scary newcomer in the 21st Century.

[Spartacus]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

Cool,

thank you

Spartacus -

Please accept my apologies in turn. I've found your posts here to be always among the best informed.

And for the record, I am actually a huge fan of India, as the country that will counterbalance China among the 21st Century giants. Western pluralistic democracies (and I am among those who agree they have lots of really bad history!) will look to India to pick up the baton of democracy and carry it far into the 21st Century. If we leave it all to mainland China, the world will have big problems! Their government remains a scary newcomer in the 21st Century.

[raja]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

How about some money in Yen, Euro & AusDollar equivalents of treasuries to offset that bet?

Spartacus,

Perhaps you're right . . . but here's what I'm thinking:

The worry about the dollar is that it will lose value. But with short-term treasuries, I believe the interest paid will rise as the dollar devalues, thus by continuously reinvesting, one can offset inflation loss and preserve wealth to some degree.
This strategy might make it unnecessary to invest in other currencies.

Also, seeing other country's markets go down last week in step with the US market, makes me think that no currency will provide an advantage when the SHTF.

What do you think?

[Spartacus]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

That's 100% my concern about holding any investment anywhere at the moment - all assets have risen on the back of loose credit.

Still, if you're going the government backed bond route, a little diversification would not hurt, as long it doesn't cost too much extra.

Just out of curiosity, what do you think would happen to the bonds of the safest, best-run municipalities in the US?

If those bonds would hold their value as corporate bonds fall, then the munis have those extra tax benefits. In a high-inflation environment, with US treasuries you could be paying taxes on inflation "gains". Not so with munis.

Spartacus,

Perhaps you're right . . . but here's what I'm thinking:

The worry about the dollar is that it will lose value. But with short-term treasuries, I believe the interest paid will rise as the dollar devalues, thus by continuously reinvesting, one can offset inflation loss and preserve wealth to some degree.
This strategy might make it unnecessary to invest in other currencies.

Also, seeing other country's markets go down last week in step with the US market, makes me think that no currency will provide an advantage when the SHTF.

What do you think?

[rabot10]

Re: Get a safe, hold cash, and wait for the buying opportunity.

This maybe should go into the 'why hasn't gold jumped' threads, but here's someone who makes Lukester look like me :p

Doug Casey via Kitco

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1530



My takeaway from this is that it illustrates another worry about gold or any investment in dollars: the government could conceivably enact currency controls or act on asset seizures.

Not good!

GoldMoney
BullionVault
Perth Mint

I think that these are good places to stash some money without reporting it. I like GoldMoney the best of the three.