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Just gut feeling, nothing more but i suspect that thing will chill out and even rally next week...................then the BIG one WILL hit!!!
Mike
Mike
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Re: This is NOT the big one!
if the current stop-gaps work temporarily look for massive stock market rallies -
after all, the BOJ and ECB actions are not exactly the biggest, hugest, baddest rescue packages
So if these small efforts work, mass psychology would become re-assured and mroe confident and would IMHO return to a borrow and speculate mentality - collapsing bond yields, rising stock markets, maybe a resurgence of LBO/P Equity activity.
Originally posted by Mega View Post -
Re: This is NOT the big one!
I got this from Grim:
My question to you is, in two days the CBs have added 1/4 of a Trillion d0llars to the system. How is this not the big one?From MarketWatch:
CENTRAL BANK ACTIONS
Bank Injection
ECB $131 billion (Aug. 9)
Federal Reserve $12 billion (Aug. 9)
Bank of Canada $1.1 billion (Aug. 9)
Japan $8.5 billion (Aug. 10)
Australia $4.2 billion (Aug. 10)
ECB $84 billion (Aug. 10)
Total $240.8 billion
bleech...rzzz.Comment
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Re: This is NOT the big one!
That's called phase II :Originally posted by Mega View Post
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=757
Jim Finkel 10. Private equity bubble is even bigger than mortgage bubble, and serious macro-economic fallout is more likelyComment
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Re: This is NOT the big one!
Bill,Originally posted by bill View Post
If Finkel is correct, am I correct that NO one outside iTulip has begun to discuss troubles with Private Equity?Jim 69 y/o
"...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)
Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.
Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.Comment
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Re: This is NOT the big one!
Prelude to a post on this later today...
The Fat Lady sang and central banks globally opened discount windows and poured out a 1/4 trillion into the banks and financial system in a day.
For the first time in history, the Fed purchased asset backed securities. (See No Deflation...)
Important to understand that the events of the past few days are part of a process of adjustment within the financial markets that started over a year ago around the time iTulip restarted.
The financial system is, as we mentioned, polluted with risk. Traditional CB approaches to solve the Credit Love Canal problem may increase confidence temporarily, but the process isn't over until all the risk pollution has been cleaned up. The pollution built up over more than ten years, and the clean-up will take years, too.Comment
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Re: This is NOT the big one!
How much is the subscription to learn what phase II is?Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
I agree with Mega on his gut feelings. The credit tightening will not go in a straight line. There will be some jerk moves followed by CBs countermeasures.
This is a short term buying opportunity, just like 3/07 and 6/06 was. Long term who knows.Comment
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Re: This is NOT the big one!
Does that mean we're already past Ka and into Poom? Should I be buying now instead of holding dollars?Comment
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Re: This is NOT the big one!
Originally posted by bill View Post
It won't let me in......am not rich enough
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MegaComment
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Re: This is NOT the big one!
Significant (and public) intervention today.
It looks like the liquidity crunch was alleviated.
However, still not clear to me that the credit crunch will be avoided.
As has been talked about ad infinitum, the Fed can make money available, but ultimately if banks won't lend and corporations/people won't/can't borrow, then overall credit goes down.
And then so does everything that the credit glut had inflated.
Don't forget, the first wave of big resets starts in October with the 2nd wave at the end of 08Q1.
Even should the Fed eat all the resultant bad MBS' and CDO's, it is still not clear that the overall environment will lend itself (heh) back to the previous situation. Just because it is the government biting the dust on repayment failures in mortgages feeding up to the A level in MBS' and CDO's, doesn't mean that the banks will still try to make more.
Ditto on loans related to LBO's or companies taking out loans to buy back stock.Last edited by c1ue; August 10, 2007, 04:36 PM.Comment
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Re: This is NOT the big one!
NO WAY YOU SHOULD BE HOLDING $!
MegaComment
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