Its kicking off in Saudi now!

[jpetr48]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

Interesting. It seems that one of the common triggers for protests has been high inflation. I wonder if the inflation they're experiencing was exported by the US, or is it something different?

Magda Kandil, executive director and director of research of the Egyptian Centre says
"current inflationary pressures on international price changes linked to export policy as well as "greed" within distribution channels as individuals seek to take advantage of food shortages, which have invariably driven prices up, thereby squeezing vulnerable segments of the population"

http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZA...20food%20riots

[dcarrigg]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

Interesting. It seems that one of the common triggers for protests has been high inflation. I wonder if the inflation they're experiencing was exported by the US, or is it something different?

Much of the Inflation has been in food prices. Food aid comes primarily in USD. The dollar drops; the world goes hungry. Of course, outside of Algeria, these are not food aid countries. Extreme weather doesn't help. We're up 80-90% in grain prices since June. Energy prices are up significantly. Worldwide unemployment is higher than in 2008 when this last happened. It has also been more sustained.

[karim0028]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

uhhh... thats a joke, right?
from what eye've read from GRG55, he knows quite well, pert near _all_ about this topic

it always amazes me when people who dont know much about who/what they talk about can say stuff like this (even when i'm as guilty of it as some...)

yeah, thats a joke comment... GRG surely knows and so does practically everyone else on here

[karim0028]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

Like some of you I am trying to quickly grasp the significance and potential scenarios.
The article from Tuscon says "Whoever leads Egypt next will inherit the region's most important diplomatic power, both geographically and historically."
Diplomatic??
Hilary Clinton says "Our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable and is looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people."

The Mubarak regime is not stable nor diplomatic. It is an authoritarian, corrupt, anti–human rights, anti–free speech regime.

There is one county missing in the article analysis, Israel which could be at the epicenter if Jordan falls after Egypt.

Diplomatic as in internationally not internally. Egypt has a historical significance amongst arab countries for many reasons that im too tired to list here.. No country cares how you treat your citizens.... They care how you can help them internationally...

[flintlock]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

Downtrodden people in an autocracy never pass on an opportunity to riot. It's not like they get that many chances to stick it to the man. Of course a lot of these folks are looters and rapists as well, but we won't hear so much about that. Don't get me wrong, I support any people trying to throw off the rule of tyrants. A lot of this is simply a series of events falling in place just so. Like I read somewhere else, where were the riots during better times if its all just about who rules and how? Democracy blah blah blah. High unemployment and rising cost of living makes for riots regardless of who is in charge. Something that the US should pay attention to.

May have to disagree with you GRG55 on this being no big deal. Perhaps you are right. This all blows over in a few weeks. But a crumbling world economic foundation may not need much to make it collapse. Oil was already headed to $100. Will it not shoot up, at least for a short time?

I assumed it pretty much fit the definition of a Black Swan event. The well informed may have seen this as a long time coming, but as far as Wall Street, I don't think they had an inkling. If another ME leader falls that would be it as far as I am concerned.

My guess is the world will never be the same over there, for better or worse. I see a lot of anti-American rhetoric in the crowds. Egypt out of love with US again means we possibly go back to 1973 situation, or worse. Balance of power could really shift at an inopportune time for the US. Trying to leave Iraq ya know.

No way Mubarak stays now of course. Its too big. Agree about Saudi Arabia. They will spill blood in large amounts to maintain the status quo. Blackout there to follow for sure.

[Shakespear]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

I often wonder why these guys write these books but I am guessing that they know that the Average Joe is not going to read them or that even if he does he will not understand the code words.

Here is Zbigniew Brzezinski explain it all in "The Grand Chessboard"

First, to identify the geostrategically dynamic Eurasian states that have the power to cause a potentially important shift in the international distribution of power and to decipher the central external goals of their respective political elites and the likely consequences of their seeking to attain them; and to pinpoint the geopolitically critical Eurasian states whose location and/or existence have catalytic effects either on the more active geostrategic players or on regional conditions;

Second, to formulate specific U.S. policies to offset, co-opt, and/or control the above, so as to preserve and promote vital U.S. interests, and to conceptualize a more comprehensive geostrategy that establishes on a global scale the interconnection between the more specific U.S. policies.

In brief, for the United States, Eurasian geostrategy involves the purposeful management of geostrategically dynamic states and the careful handling of geopolitically catalytic states, in keeping with the twin interests of America in the short-term preservation of its unique global power and in the long-run transformation of it into increasingly institutionalized global cooperation. To put it in a terminology that hearkens back to the more brutal age of ancient empires, the three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from coming together.

[touchring]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

Interesting. It seems that one of the common triggers for protests has been high inflation. I wonder if the inflation they're experiencing was exported by the US, or is it something different?

It is more complicated than that, I think food inflation is caused by bad weather as much as by rising affluence in China and India, if 3 billion people eat just 10% more everyday, that would mean the world must produce enough food for another 300 million people, or one billion people must eat less 1 meal everyday.

[GRG55]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

Always nice to hear another viewpoint so please excuse my asking; but .... Why is Egypt so much more important?

Have a look at karim0028's commentary on the following thread link - and some of the other posts of his on this topic [but this once again this shows the downside of people starting multiple new threads on the same overall topic...we now have 4 of them going related to these events]
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...87833#poststop

[Chris Coles]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

Thanks GRG. Over a lifetime, most, if not all of us, have watched from the sidelines, a process that has repeated itself; a great empire forms, (the last being the British), and somewhere along the line, it crumbles. But this time is very different as all these young people are linked with modern communications. Everywhere they go, they are in constant touch with their friends. I see it every day here in the UK with our own here. These kids will not accept the old "secret army" imposition of a central order; they answer to no one but their own generation. They are free spirited in a way that my own generation, (born 1944), never experienced.

This is not an impending collapse of one order to be replaced with another; it is a complete rejection of "being led by the nose" by the old fashioned "Higher Order".

So, this is not another Iran; if for no other reason than they have already seen how their contemporaries in Iran have lost out to the darker forces of religious zealots.

The sensible thing to do is to roll back the very processes that have tried to keep the lid on the young for so long. But my fear is some idiot somewhere; will still believe they can force the young back into the round hole they have just realised they can escape from.

Returning to the past experience, we, here in the West, (not me personally, but those that feel they are "in charge"), would normally set out to destabilise the situation to gain an advantage to suite our "interests"; but this time I feel we should not try the old way and have enough courage to let them sort this out for themselves. We have too often meddled and produced another dictator "on our side". With all the consequential idiocies.

We must stand back and let them sort this out for themselves.

[GeraldRiggs]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

make no mistake everyone, the US CIA is involved in the "uprisings" in Tunisia and Egypt.....I would almost guarantee it. we need something like this to get people's attention off the terrible US economy and to get capital flight back into the US "safe" UST market.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

That may not be correct at all. Radio 4 "Today" http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/default.stm this morning, from 07.00 am reports from a woman that the people have taken control of law and order, and were finding that the looters were either special police forces or known criminals associated with same forces. That a woman was being treated with respect on the street. All the reports we are receiving here in the UK show that this is a spontaneous uprising by the ordinary people.

If you go to the top left of the web page and hit on Listen Again, and you can hear the entire program from 06.00 am.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

That may not be correct at all. Radio 4 "Today" http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/default.stm this morning, from 07.00 am reports from a woman that the people have taken control of law and order, and were finding that the looters were either special police forces or known criminals associated with same forces. That a woman was being treated with respect on the street. All the reports we are receiving here in the UK show that this is a spontaneous uprising by the ordinary people.

Exactly Chris. Why would the CIA do anything unless geopolitical or corporate interests would be helped along? Taking down the pro-american leader of the most populous arab country that is relatively good with Israel for no reason would not be on the top of the priority list.

Now if this was an uprising subsequent to the nationalization and closing of the Suez Canal or if they appropriated all of Apache Oil's investments Riggs might have a point. But nothing like this happened. This seems to simply be an organic, bottom-up revolution, much like those seen in Eastern Europe etc.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

Yes, BUT!

And the "But" is that this does appear to be a complete refusal of all ideas associated with the ordinary population being "controlled" by what I like to term "Secret armies".

That at long last, hopefully, the era of secret armies is coming to an end. The day the CIA becomes an embarrassment for the US, will start the long road away from torture and all the iniquities of the idea that somehow it is in any nations interest to keep such forces on the ground, in any nation, in the background. We might be on the verge of a great period of peace.

[bpr]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

That may not be correct at all. Radio 4 "Today" http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/default.stm this morning, from 07.00 am reports from a woman that the people have taken control of law and order, and were finding that the looters were either special police forces or known criminals associated with same forces. That a woman was being treated with respect on the street. All the reports we are receiving here in the UK show that this is a spontaneous uprising by the ordinary people.

I saw similar reports on the news here in the states. The vigilantes are poorly equipped, yet seem to control large highways and are making routine stops. This is a very orderly "mob."

Exactly Chris. Why would the CIA do anything unless geopolitical or corporate interests would be helped along? Taking down the pro-american leader of the most populous arab country that is relatively good with Israel for no reason would not be on the top of the priority list.

Now if this was an uprising subsequent to the nationalization and closing of the Suez Canal or if they appropriated all of Apache Oil's investments Riggs might have a point. But nothing like this happened. This seems to simply be an organic, bottom-up revolution, much like those seen in Eastern Europe etc.

I think Mubarak screwed up. Something happened that we don't know about. Or TPTB are just turning the gears on the machine.

...this does appear to be a complete refusal of all ideas associated with the ordinary population being "controlled" by what I like to term "Secret armies".

That at long last, hopefully, the era of secret armies is coming to an end. The day the CIA becomes an embarrassment for the US, will start the long road away from torture and all the iniquities of the idea that somehow it is in any nations interest to keep such forces on the ground, in any nation, in the background. We might be on the verge of a great period of peace.

I'll believe it when I see the replacement. For now, I agree with Riggs.

Why? This revolt is going to have teeth, Mubarak's replacement is being "negotiated" as we speak. In an extremely important US ally, an overthrow happened in less than a week, with the full complicity of the US administration (with the Secretary of State calling for an "orderly transition").

When has that happened, since World War II, without the involvement of US intelligence?

Yes, the market crashed, your home is worth half of what it was and a bunch more people are unemployed, no matter what country you live in. So, the last sixty years of US consolidation of power is over?

Possible, but not likely. Let's see who the successor is.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Its kicking off in Saudi now!

So, the last sixty years of US consolidation of power is over?

In a very real sense, you make my point for me. The last sixty years have brought you a bankrupt nation with ever decreasing influence. Consolidating power using secret armies has failed as a long term policy. This is not a stable world of peace; it is an unstable world full of populations fed up to the back teeth with "manipulation".

If the past has anything to teach; it is that using behind the scenes manipulation might work over the short term, but that age old saying stands. You can fool some of the people some of the time. You can fool most of the people most of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.

IMHO the United States is on the back foot precisely because they have placed way too much reliance on "secret armies" and nothing like enough on open dialogue about true freedom. The wheel has turned full circle.