Escalation in Egypt

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Cash-starved Egyptians turn on each other

The lead article on the counterpunch website adds a lot to this thread.

http://www.counterpunch.org/

"Rapid population growth contributes to the many fiscal problems facing Egypt: with a population over 80-million people, all living along the narrow strip of arable land along the thin Nile basin and the Delta, Egypt has the highest habitable population density of any country on earth. The almost Dadaist 1950s Egyptian screwball comedies that play on Egyptian TV record un-crowded streets and sidewalks, with grassy medians and rooftops of a Cairo with less than two million people, scenes that are today crammed with squatters, bumper to bumper traffic, and overflowing with twenty-million people. This population growth achieved under a growing dependence on foreign aid and imported wheat and other foodstuffs leaves Egypt today only able to produce enough food to feed itself for only seven or eight months out of the year. If the transition of leadership after Mubarak undermines Egypt’s strategic relations with the United States and other nations providing this food aid, the nation of Egypt could stand a severe risk of famine.

"But rapid population growth isn’t Egypt’s only problem: Mubarak’s neo-liberal trickle-down economic policies, enacted in consultation with the International Monetary Fund and the United States, have led to increasing gaps between rich and poor and ideepening poverty. While Egypt may well break free from Mubarak, independence from the United States might be far more difficult to achieve. Egypt’s dependence on foreign aid from the US, which expanded as a result of Jimmy Carter’s Camp David Peace Agreement, will keep the United States as a key partner with whatever leadership emerges in post-Mubarak Egypt. Aid dependence is a powerful force, and as former economic hitman John Perkins made abundantly clear, while recipient nations come to have growing dependence on this aid, vast amounts of the aid remains in US corporate and private hands."

[oddlots]

Re: Cash-starved Egyptians turn on each other

Whose manual is it? Is it

a) a matter of a peaceful but politically naive and so wreckless youth movement pushing the system to somehow leap across an impossibly large gap?
b) is it a question of a police state needing to be pushed to crisis point before it changes?
c) is it a gangster-like party ensuring that if it goes down it will take the country with it?

I've had every one of these thoughts pass through my head as I read, watch and listen to various reports.

Agree that a complete and terrifying conflagration is a possible outcome, especially when one sees the dynamics above interacting.

I think to understand the apparent intransigence of the pro-democracy demonstrators you have to remember they've heard all this from Mubarak before. In fact over and over. He originally said he had no intention of staying in power beyond one term. That was 30 years ago. Likewise, the tactics shown by the secret police are a common feature of all sorts of NDP actions. I think you can gauge the degree of seething anger and frustration of living under this regime by the ~ 2 million person turn out last week.

It's also palpable to me that, unless the regime is wounded fatally then the retribution on those they see as bringing about their downfall will be certain and vicious.

Today there's the outrageous things Mubarak claimed to Amanpour (btw, Amanpour of the ABC? Star middle-eastern journalist? Not an Egyptian journalist in Arabic? Hmmm.) He's fed up with being President? WTF!!!!! Then for f's sake go! (Could it be that he just has to convince himself it's his decision? The vanity of this man is astonishing.) But there's more: he doesn't want to go because chaos would ensue. Chaos? What's this if not chaos. Chaos caused precisely by Mubarak's unwillingness to to bow before overwhelming public sentiment. (Everyone's replaceable, something that's obvious to mere mortals.)

I really think this is the most pathologically narcissistic stuff I've ever read.

So whose manual is it to your mind?

[Dave Stratman]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Also, as a matter of perspective, China is reported to have had 90,000 protests and mass disturbances per year for each of the past four years (http://m.economist.com/leaders_17308123.php). Perhaps the control of the CCP is not quite as complete as we have been suggesting in this discussion. I haven't followed events in Egypt before these latest events, but I don't have the impression that Egyptians have been engaging in a great many mass protests in these past years.

[FRED]

Re: Cash-starved Egyptians turn on each other

Whose manual is it? Is it

a) a matter of a peaceful but politically naive and so wreckless youth movement pushing the system to somehow leap across an impossibly large gap?
b) is it a question of a police state needing to be pushed to crisis point before it changes?
c) is it a gangster-like party ensuring that if it goes down it will take the country with it?

I've had every one of these thoughts pass through my head as I read, watch and listen to various reports.

Agree that a complete and terrifying conflagration is a possible outcome, especially when one sees the dynamics above interacting.

I think to understand the apparent intransigence of the pro-democracy demonstrators you have to remember they've heard all this from Mubarak before. In fact over and over. He originally said he had no intention of staying in power beyond one term. That was 30 years ago. Likewise, the tactics shown by the secret police are a common feature of all sorts of NDP actions. I think you can gauge the degree of seething anger and frustration of living under this regime by the ~ 2 million person turn out last week.

It's also palpable to me that, unless the regime is wounded fatally then the retribution on those they see as bringing about their downfall will be certain and vicious.

Today there's the outrageous things Mubarak claimed to Amanpour (btw, Amanpour of the ABC? Star middle-eastern journalist? Not an Egyptian journalist in Arabic? Hmmm.) He's fed up with being President? WTF!!!!! Then for f's sake go! (Could it be that he just has to convince himself it's his decision? The vanity of this man is astonishing.) But there's more: he doesn't want to go because chaos would ensue. Chaos? What's this if not chaos. Chaos caused precisely by Mubarak's unwillingness to to bow before overwhelming public sentiment. (Everyone's replaceable, something that's obvious to mere mortals.)

I really think this is the most pathologically narcissistic stuff I've ever read.

So whose manual is it to your mind?

To answer your question, the current uprising started a month ago, although the media seems to have completely lost track of this.

Egypt media warn of civil war after bombing
Jan. 3, 2010

CAIRO (AFP) -- Egyptian newspapers warned Sunday that "civil war" could break out unless Christians and Muslims close ranks after a deadly attack on a Coptic church that triggered angry protests.

The authorities said that a suicide bomber blew himself up outside Al-Qiddissin church in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria early on New Year's Day, killing 21 people and wounding 79 others.

Protests by Christians and clashes with the police that erupted after Saturday's attack could worsen and plunge Egypt into a new spiral of sectarian violence, the government and independent newspapers said.

The newspapers also urged the government to give serious consideration to the plight of the Copts who account for up to 10 percent of Egypt's 80-million population and often complain of discrimination.

"Someone wants to make this country explode... We must realize that there is a plot aimed at triggering religious civil war," the pro-government daily Rose Al-Yussef said.

Egyptians should foil attempts by "terrorists" to strike at the country, it said.

The independent paper Ash-Shorouk said Christians had a right to be angry, but urged them not play into the game of "the instigators of [Saturday's] crime."

"No one can blame the Christian brothers if they are angry and disgusted," the daily said.

The bombing sparked anger among Christians, who clashed on Saturday for several hours with police and shouted slogans against the regime of President Hosni Mubarak.

"O Mubarak, the heart of the Copts is on fire," protesters shouted as they darted in and out of side-streets around the bloodied church to shower police with stones. Police fired tear gas grenades at the demonstrators.

Ash-Shorouk said it would be "more dangerous for the Christians to be mired in their feelings of anger and frustration, than the attack itself."

"It would increase their isolation and the instigators of the crime would have then achieved their goal," it said.

"If all goes as planned, criminal operations against Coptic targets and holy places will increase. Copts will clash with their Muslim neighbors and we will be stuck in marshlands like Lebanon was in April 1975," it said.

A civil war broke out in Lebanon that month, lasting 15 years and pitting Christians against Muslims.

Another independent daily, Al-Masri Al-Yom, urged the authorities to take the bull by the horns and look beyond the security implications of Saturday's bombing, including at the political, social and cultural aspects.

"We should not hide our heads in the sand. Some say that foreign hands are probably behind this crime. But we believe that if the national fabric is solid enough, no foreign faction could set the fire in our midst."

The solution lies "in a serious dialogue around this sensitive issue" of the Copts, Al-Masri Al-Yom said.

The attack, which Mubarak has blamed on "foreign hands," drew international condemnation with Pope Benedict XVI leading the fray on Saturday urging world leaders to defend Christians against abuse.

US President Barack Obama denounced "this barbaric and heinous act," and the European Union "unreservedly" condemned the bombing.

The World Council of Churches condemned "the vicious attack" and called for "proactive engagement in dialogue and partnership between Christians and Muslims in Egypt."

Turkey and Israel have said they were "shocked" by the attack which Ankara on Sunday called a "cowardly terrorist" act.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Mubarak on Saturday to express solidarity.

Here's another way to read this. In the wake of the bombing, government and "independent" newspapers warned that "civil war" could break out if Christians and Muslims don't come together behind Mubarak; the Mubarak regime itself was behind the bombing, attempting to position itself as a keeper of peace and stability, preventing civil war between religious factions. In fact the real risk was civil war between the people and the Mubarak regime, as events have shown.

Look for the Mubarak regime to try to foment conflict between religious groups to deflect attention from themselves. As the uprising drags on and food grows more scarce, the poorest segments of Egyptian society, already living hand to mouth, can be bribed by the regime with money and food.

[touchring]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Also, as a matter of perspective, China is reported to have had 90,000 protests and mass disturbances per year for each of the past four years (http://m.economist.com/leaders_17308123.php). Perhaps the control of the CCP is not quite as complete as we have been suggesting in this discussion. I haven't followed events in Egypt before these latest events, but I don't have the impression that Egyptians have been engaging in a great many mass protests in these past years.

Given the size of China, the availability of the Internet, and the huge numbers of lowly educated peasant class, control is as complete as it is possible. Of course, the control is not what you'll find in Singapore, were wireless security cameras are everywhere, and even outdoor birthday parties may require a police permit.

[flintlock]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Prediction. This "revolution" will be hijacked and the people of Egypt will probably end up going through at least some period of strife, where today's conditions will be seen as "the good old days", before anything resembling progress occurs. So far they seem to have achieved the ultimate overthrow of Mubarak, at least he says he will be stepping down. The real question is, has anyone involved put much thought to what happens next?. The "fun" part is rioting and protesting in the streets. The hard work comes next. Hopefully they can work this out as peacefully as possible, but if history is any guide, it won't be that easy. Especially in a region full of agitators looking to hitch their wagon to this movement for sinister motives. I wish them luck.

[touchring]

Re: Cash-starved Egyptians turn on each other

The vanity of this man is astonishing.) But there's more: he doesn't want to go because chaos would ensue. Chaos? What's this if not chaos. Chaos caused precisely by Mubarak's unwillingness to to bow before overwhelming public sentiment. (Everyone's replaceable, something that's obvious to mere mortals.

I beg to differ. If Mubarak falls, which group of people will be hunted down? I'm contemplating the possibility that many of the silly decisions such as sending in the camels and shooting the journalists are actually instigated by his kleptocracy cronies without his knowledge. There maybe hundreds of thousands of them. Even though Mubarak setup the kleptocracy, he may not be as important, or as powerful as we believe him to be.

If Mubarak can't control the state secret police, should he step down, the army will have to fight them and another round of bloodshed will be unavoidable.

On the brighter side of things, it may actually be a good idea that Mubarak steps down while he is still alive.

[oddlots]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Looks like pretty hard work to me.

[GRG55]

Re: Cash-starved Egyptians turn on each other

Whose manual is it? Is it

a) a matter of a peaceful but politically naive and so wreckless youth movement pushing the system to somehow leap across an impossibly large gap?
b) is it a question of a police state needing to be pushed to crisis point before it changes?
c) is it a gangster-like party ensuring that if it goes down it will take the country with it?

I've had every one of these thoughts pass through my head as I read, watch and listen to various reports.

Agree that a complete and terrifying conflagration is a possible outcome, especially when one sees the dynamics above interacting.

I think to understand the apparent intransigence of the pro-democracy demonstrators you have to remember they've heard all this from Mubarak before. In fact over and over. He originally said he had no intention of staying in power beyond one term. That was 30 years ago. Likewise, the tactics shown by the secret police are a common feature of all sorts of NDP actions. I think you can gauge the degree of seething anger and frustration of living under this regime by the ~ 2 million person turn out last week.

It's also palpable to me that, unless the regime is wounded fatally then the retribution on those they see as bringing about their downfall will be certain and vicious.

Today there's the outrageous things Mubarak claimed to Amanpour (btw, Amanpour of the ABC? Star middle-eastern journalist? Not an Egyptian journalist in Arabic? Hmmm.) He's fed up with being President? WTF!!!!! Then for f's sake go! (Could it be that he just has to convince himself it's his decision? The vanity of this man is astonishing.) But there's more: he doesn't want to go because chaos would ensue. Chaos? What's this if not chaos. Chaos caused precisely by Mubarak's unwillingness to to bow before overwhelming public sentiment. (Everyone's replaceable, something that's obvious to mere mortals.)

I really think this is the most pathologically narcissistic stuff I've ever read.

So whose manual is it to your mind?

Among other things, Mubarak is a man that has spent much of his life fighting every form of opposition, but most particularly the Muslim Brotherhood. The idea that he would step aside and leave any possibility that the MB might gain any power is naive.

Every "President for Life" feels the need to engineer the outcome of their departure, for reasons I posted once before, and Mubarak is no exception. Nobody should be surprised by what is happening, and be assured that the moment the USA and the UK stopped supporting him is the moment he stopped listening to any advice from them.

[touchring]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Looks like pretty hard work to me.

Prepare for $140 oil.

[thunderdownunder]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

"They have NOT chosen Anarchy over respect for themselves and I am surprised, for that is the easy action. They have shown restraint beyond what I would have expected.
Mubarak is finished but a snake cornered can be a dangerous thing. This is not a fight for power, this is a fight for control over power. He has an arsenal to kill this.
He can cut power, food, water, medicine can be made scarce, internet and social sites can be feed misinformation. Fuel can be shut off, terrorism can be made reality, harrasement and fear of anarchy can be made real to peace loving people but the Army has kissed him good bye."

First stage completed, tonight they spill blood by any means. Anarchy has been chosen. It has dissolved into the lowest denominator. Control over power!

[touchring]

Re: Cash-starved Egyptians turn on each other

Every "President for Life" feels the need to engineer the outcome of their departure, for reasons I posted once before, and Mubarak is no exception. Nobody should be surprised by what is happening, and be assured that the moment the USA and the UK stopped supporting him is the moment he stopped listening to any advice from them.

he doesn't have another 10 years to battle it all out. it will be better for him to bargain for an exit.

[swgprop]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

"He can cut power, food, water, medicine can be made scarce, internet and social sites can be feed misinformation.

As evidence of the above, Al Jazeera broadcasted side by side feeds - screen on the left was from the government-run Egyptian State TV showing minimal activity, small groups of demonstrators from both sides calmly exchanging views --- screen on the right shows the scene in Cairo with a million + anti-Mubarak demonstrators.

I thought the contrast was interesting.

[oddlots]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Berlusconi had some kind words for Mubarak today. Was reminded that he apparently sprung "Ruby" - his underage girlfriend - from jail by claiming she was a close relative of Mubarak. I guess the cops found this plausible because they let her go. I guess Berlusconi's trying to make ammends. Hahahahahah.

[GRG55]

Re: Cash-starved Egyptians turn on each other

he doesn't have another 10 years to battle it all out. it will be better for him to bargain for an exit.

What the hell do you think is going on?

Bargaining, of course. He knows he has a short shelf life now.

And he's bargaining with a stronger hand than many give him credit...and he's going to do whatever it takes to improve that hand - that's what "strongmen" do.

Finally, it matters not how much his former benefactors, the USA and Tony Blair, plead otherwise. He knows they can't do anything to help him, but they owe him too much to go against him in this fight.

When the demonstrations against the Shah started to gain momentum his security forces repeatedly tried to get the order to shoot. The Shah knew this would cause a major political rift with the USA, and kept "looking over his shoulder" for an indication from the Carter Administration that there wouldn't be permament repercussions. That never came, and the rest is history. The people in this region don't forget that stuff. In the Middle East the USA is viewed as the most essential, but at the same time the least dependable, international ally.