Escalation in Egypt

[tsetsefly]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

its being reported(cnn) that the egyptian information minister announced that mobile networks will be shut down("temporarily") in advance of planned protest...

[GRG55]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Interesting times indeed.

Egypt - a de facto US ally along with Israel in preserving the Middle East status quo, now undergoing violent upheaval.

Tunisia - a de facto French protectorate, now undergoing violent upheaval.

Who's next?

Iran.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

This is far from the first time that a Middle East government has restricted internet access or disabled mobile phone capability. The implications of these moves are becoming more acute with the proliferation of social networking sites, but they've been using this tactic for a long time now.

The internet service in the Persian Gulf kingdom where I am at present went to slower than dial-up two days ago. What a coincidence. The government telco website and inet help desk messages say there has been a loss of service on one of the main undersea data cables feeding the country. Everyone here knows better...they have their monitoring systems dialed up and everything is now being scanned.

I recall some recent tech news that RIM/Blackberry were being threatened by the Saudis, India and others to give up the jewels or get shut down, prior to the riots spreading like a rash across North Africa and the ME.

I can only assume it was/is to gain control of the networks if events such as these come to pass, using the convenient and semi-truthful excuse of counter-terrorism to safeguard against the more significant risk of domestic unrest and insurrection?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Jordan?
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...157509196.html

Is Jordan at greater risk than Egypt or Tunisia?

I would GUESS not....

It's my understanding that Jordan faced a FAR greater threat in the late 60's/early 70's from the likes of Black September and PFLN with the sympathy/support of neighbouring Syria and Iraq(which also had thousands of troops stationed in Jordan at the time...and numerous serious assassinatin attempts on the King.

I would GUESS the greatest threats to Jordan would be water(or the future lack of it) and unrest revolving around unoffical unemployment combined with rising imported food/energy costs...and less so about a massive police state

So would Jordan be a better example of 3rd world FIRE blowback?

I reckon they get hurt like a lot of countries in this FIRE mess...but I'd GUESS the risk of the government falling is a good bit less than others in the region.

I'd be keen to hear GRG55's thoughts.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Perhaps Syria...

It will be interesting to see how the son handles things.

His father wasn't exactly delicate:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hama_massacre

I would think it unlikely that Syria could get away with another Hama-like solution.

I also wonder what influence Iran has with Syria and what role that would play...

Same goes for how the largely Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, MB offshoot Hamas, and the Shia Hezbullah...or more specifically....how they all relate to one another.

One quite noticeable thing I've seen is how Hamas and Hezbullah have moved beyond just traditional terrorist organizations to include what appears to be quite significant and sophisticated "hearts and minds" programs...that appear to be like Middle East version of old American Tammany Hall type political machines or Sinn Fein in Ireland.

Impossible to counter with violence/kinetic operations.

I always wondered how nations in the ME would handle an ME version of MLK or Ghandi...but maybe the likely outcome might be one or more ME Tammany Halls?

[GRG55]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

John Bolton was on TV this morning saying that anyone who says he knows what will happen in Egypt is crazy. I tend to agree. Its a wild card. He also said power in Egypt is basically the Army and that currently Mubarak is the face of that power. They had him appoint Suleiman VP because that is who they want. This may be shaping up into a conflict between the Army and the Muslim brotherhood or other religious groups.

...

• Bolton is correct, the exact outcome is of course unknowable. But some outcomes are unlikely so the range of plausible outcomes is narrower than many pundits claim.
• The Muslim Brotherhood frightens almost everyone, in the Middle East region and outside it...so there is far more support inside AND outside Egypt for the options that exclude that organization from a role in any future power structure.
• I disagree with EJ's contention that Hosni Mubarak or his son [Gamal] will announce they are running in the upcoming elections. Although possible, i regard that as improbable. In this now globalized world any leader needs not just the support of internal constituents, but now also the support of key external nations for legitimacy. Hosni Mubarak has now lost that, and Gamal has never had it. Being the national leader of a strategically important nation is a lot more complicated than it used to be. If the next President of Egypt is from the Mubarak family it will only be because no agreement could be reached on any other possible alternative - particularly in light of bullet 2 above.
• To emphasize, external support from presumably long standing allies, can evaporate in a flash. The USA has always been a fickle ally - remember Saddam went from key regional ally to counterbalance Iran, to being hanged. France refused asylum to long time "friend", ousted Tunisian President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, and Canada has revoked the residency permit of his brother-in-law Belhassen Trabelsi. Once the world turns it gets vicious - your assets are frozen and your plane can't land. Today the EU banned 158 officials from Belarus, including President Alexander Lukashenko and his two sons, from entering the EU and froze their assets. Mubarak is doubtless trying to negotiate a way to avoid a similar fate, if it appears he will not be able to stay in the country.
• One of the major dangers at this moment is a split in the Army. If that happens the chances of a civil war go up dramatically.
• Keep an eye on Iran...one of the more probable locations for the next major sustained flare ups against the incumbent regime.
• If Iran goes, the strategic importance of Saudi Arabia to the USA as a counterbalance to Iran declines...and has potential consequences that are interesting to put it mildly.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Iran.

Interesting, I would have thought they'd be LESS likely than a bunch of others in the region.

If Iran cracked down incredibly hard on it's citizens, what political pressure and by whom could be exerted to stop it? (Assuming they are successful for now)

Which nations would be willing to pressure Iran and hurt their exports in such difficult economic times?

How can Iran's export earnings be harmed in the short to medium term? I would think the long-term(exploration/exploitation) could be hurt.

Can politicians in India, Germany, France, South Korea, Italy(I guess forget China/Russia) be brought to heal and convinced by the US to burn jobs/votes to pressure Iran?

And would Iran not have growing leverage in an environment of rising energy prices to call on a trading partner like China to provide political top cover?

I can't help but think along the lines of Sri Lanka decisively crushing the LTTE recently.....ONLY made possible with support from China.

And I would think the ability of Iran's security forces to counter/crush protests the next time will be an improvement over the last, although the same could be said of US efforts to fund unconventional warfare against Iran in a new realm of internet/telecommunications catalysed insurrection.

Your post has me scratching my head a bit in confusion....time for a cup of coffee me thinks

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

• Bolton is correct, the exact outcome is of course unknowable. But some outcomes are unlikely so the range of plausible outcomes is narrower than many pundits claim.
• The Muslim Brotherhood frightens almost everyone, in the Middle East region and outside it...so there is far more support inside AND outside Egypt for the options that exclude that organization from a role in any future power structure.
• I disagree with EJ's contention that Hosni Mubarak or his son [Gamal] will announce they are running in the upcoming elections. Although possible, i regard that as improbable. In this now globalized world any leader needs not just the support of internal constituents, but now also the support of key external nations for legitimacy. Hosni Mubarak has now lost that, and Gamal has never had it. If the next President of Egypt is from the Mubarak family it will only be because no agreement could be reached on any other possible alternative.
• To emphasize, external support from presumably long standing allies, can evaporate in a flash. The USA has always been a fickle ally - remember Saddam went from key regional ally to counterbalance Iran, to being hanged. France refused asylum to long time "friend", ousted Tunisian President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, and Canada has revoked the residency permit of his brother-in-law Belhassen Trabelsi. Once the world turns it gets vicious - your assets are frozen and your plane can't land. Today the EU banned 158 officials from Belarus, including President Alexander Lukashenko and his two sons, from entering the EU and froze their assets. Mubarak is doubtless trying to negotiate a way to avoid a similar fate.
• One of the major dangers at this moment is a split in the Army. If that happens the chances of a civil war go up dramatically.
• Keep an eye on Iran...one of the more probable locations for the next major sustained flare ups against the incumbent regime.

Would it be possible to elaborate on your reasonings behind Iran being at risk?

Based on your post it would appear realpolitik appears to be completely absent........one would think using political leverage to ASSIST in a stable transfer of power(including a sunny beachfront home for an out of work dictator, providing safety guarantees, and wearing the political cost of helping harbour them) would make FAR more sense than closing off a failing dictator's options and backing them into a corner....we know how animals can react when cornered.....dictators are animals too aren't they?

I recall the French used to be "good" at it with the like of Baby Doc Duvalier and a couple naughty little African dictators.

[oddlots]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

not to mention all the trains!

[karim0028]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

An example of the community spirit i was blabbering about earlier...

[oddlots]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

All too predictable:

http://maxkeiser.com/2011/01/31/huge...leaving-egypt/

Information is as follows:

$10 billion of the Mubarak’s money has been transferred to Switzerland and France.

Walid Shash and Omar Tantawy are chief handlers of Mubaraks’ loot for transfer to Switzerland and France.

The transfers have been taking place for the last 7 years and have intensified during the last 3.

Farouk el Okda, governor of the Central Bank of Egypt, facilitated transfer of gold for Mubarak to foreign banks.

Alaa Mubarak close friend Hisham Hassan has been imposed on the boards of companies by regime.

Alaa Mubarak’s father in law has been imposed by the regime on companies and has ‘won’ many IT company bids.

Rashid Rashid has strong links with Alaa Mubarak’s friends.

[jtabeb]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Not Saudi?

[touchring]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

In my opinion, if the US leads in disposing Mubarak, there is a good chance that a secular government will remain in place. However, if it takes a bloody revolution to kick Mubarak out, you can be sure that the Muslim Brotherhood will prevail.

[oddlots]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

In my opinion, if the US leads in disposing Mubarak, there is a good chance that a secular government will remain in place. However, if it takes a bloody revolution to kick Mubarak out, you can be sure that the Muslim Brotherhood will prevail.

Just a reality test (thinking out loud):

I admit I'm confused about this myself, but is the Muslim Brotherhood really who we think they are?

My sense is that the MB has factions and a history that goes back to the 20s. In other words, several geological periods in political time. The extreme elements - represented by Qutb as the the bogeyman (Bin Laden's hero) - are not necessarily the ascendant voices. Yet the western view is that they represent a kind of Bolshevik menace. The argument goes that it was all sweetness and light in Iran until the Shaw really vacated power... then the game really started and it was a brutal consolidation of power and... darkness fell.

I think the inability of Iran's recent colour revolution to attain escape velocity is proof of concept here.

Simplistic obviously, but I suspect that most non-Muslim or even perhaps most non-fundamentalist Muslim's have half their thoughts pre-occupied with thoughts like this: if I were a revolutionary Islamist this would be the chance of a lifetime bar none.

And then on the exact opposite end of the scales you have a really moving display of exactly the kind of political involvement that matters: a demonstration of overwhelming popular desire for an end to something that has been a decades-long nightmare of crime, abuse, dishonour and humiliation. There is one police or secret police employee for every 37 Egyptians. That includes grandma and grandpa, your toddler relatives etc. Absolute insanity. It's actually worse than the communist regimes of Eastern Europe far as I can tell. Allies?

In this situation I'm tempted to conclude that what appears to be happening is exactly what is happening: these people simply want to stop the abuse and decline at all costs because they realise there's no future in it for anyone, and that includes the west.

There's plenty of support for this view based on reporting. The frustration of Egyptians in the face of the timidity of Western leadership is palpable:

"We are in the streets every day since 25 January and you give us Omar Suleiman, an agent? We are out here demanding our rights and you give us the head of intelligence? We will not accept Suleiman. America puts the security of Israel above the people of Egypt. We are monkeys to America. They are saying we Egyptians don't deserve political rights, don't deserve freedom. It's over… the fact that the outside world continues to engage this guy Mubarak is ridiculous. It's over."

I really think it's like Hungary in 56, except that they are "our" tanks in some sense.

The handwringing in the west (including my own here) is entirely unworthy of the people out there defying, against all odds, an out of control mafia masquerading as its government.

[jk]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

the revolution usually eats its young, and after the revolution comes the counterrevolution. the rabble rousers like patrick henry are displaced by virginia land barons. the terror leads to thermidor, and ultimately to napoleon. mossadegh is overthrown by the cia, installing the shah, who is displaced by khomeini and the islamic guard. the february revolution, all sweetness and democracy [relatively speaking], is displaced by the october, bolshevik, revolution. and not too much later, lenin's new economic plan is replaced by stalin's terror.

if mubarek falls, as appears increasingly likely, i do not assume that whatever replaces his regime will remain in place, or in character, very long. the best likely scenario, i would think, is a recapitulation of turkish history, with periodic military coups, interspersed with increasing periods of democratic rule.