Escalation in Egypt

[Slimprofits]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

an AJ reporter just said on the air that Egyptian security forces are lining up buses on the streets around Tahrir Square in Cairo.
She speculated the buses would be used to attempt to block the streets around the square, to keep demonstrators out.
Or are they going to attempt mass arrests when people return after daybreak in about 4 hours?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/2011129112626339573.htm
Last Modified: 29 Jan 2011 13:06 GMT

Tawakel Karman, a female activist who has led several protests in Sanaa during the past week, said that a member of the security forces in civilian clothes tried to attack her with a dagger and a shoe but was stopped by other protesters.

"We will continue until the fall of Ali Abdullah Saleh's regime," said Karman, who was granted parole on Monday after being held over her role in earlier protests calling for political change in Yemen.

"We have the Southern Movement in the south, the (Shia) Huthi rebels in the north, and parliamentary opposition," all of which are calling for political change, Karman said.

"But what's most important now is the jasmine revolution," Karman said, who is also a senior member of the opposition Islamist Al-Islah (Reform) party and heads a rights group, Women Journalists Without Chains.

Karman also called for Thursday, February 3 to be a "Day of rage" throughout Yemen.

[iyamwutiam]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

http://mondoweiss.net/2011/01/notici...s-mubarak.html

I think the real story here is fear. There does appear to be a general backlash against increased disparity and concentration of wealth with its consequence of increased unemployment, inflation causing popular discontent which transform to anger and protest. I am sure many may even draw the parallel of inexplicable rise of fundamentalism via the tea party to many disenfranchised finding refuge in the same tenets but couched in terms of a different religion.

That being said -the issue everyone is concerned about is -will this be a sentinel event that heralds a complete change of order. Can it be managed so that the system as it is constructed continues to a more indefinite future. Yemen/Egypt/Tunisia/Jordan/Syria are really no major concern to the super capitalist's and major economies of the world as it in no way effects the majority of the world's oil supply.

The contrast of over-entitled citizens and immigrants is at it's maximum in oil rich nations which will eschew 'revolution' or change in favor of receiving their benefits (read Kuwait/Saudi Arabia). I feel these countries will continue to 'stable' for sometime.

Greece
Tunisia
Libya
Algeria
Egypt
Albania
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Jordan
Yemen
Algeria

was quoted earlier -may I mention Thailand/the Philippines and rest assured Pakistan/Bangladesh and probably India. This may not necessarily be interpreted as a muslim revolution but rather like Bolshevik and French revolts -a disparity revolt finally taking place in countries that desperately need them.

[GRG55]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

it looks increasingly that the regime's strategy is to maintain a large military presence, secure the loyalty and centrality of the military by appointing military leaders as both vice-president and prime minister, while avoiding a violent clampdown, and allowing the [peaceful] demonstrations to go on until people tire of them, i.e. they burn themselves out. one issue will be whether the flow of day to day supplies, especially food, can be maintained while the demonstrations proceed.

The Egyptian Army understands that "loyalty" to Mubarak has a best-before-date attached to it that is approaching rapidly. Although they are doing their duty to maintain public order, it would appear that the generals are not going to do anything more in support of the regime that might compromise the Army's reputation and support from 80 million Egyptians.

Egyptians didn't line up at the Army checkpoints to gain entry to Tahrir Square in Cairo, or greet the soldiers, or bring them food, out of fear...they did that out of respect for the Army's reputation as the only competent government organization in the country. That the country didn't descend into anarchy is a testament to the power of that reputation.

Mubarak's days are almost certainly numbered, and the delay is most probably due to the lack of any obvious successor satisfactory to him and the outgoing regime, the Army, and with enough suppport to get the people off the streets and back into their homes and shops. The other issue will be whether Mubarak is allowed to remain in the country, and if not, who will give him asylum...he would most likely prefer the UK [his wife Suzanne is part Welsh] but being seen to be calling in favours from Tony Blair and the USA right now will compromise the ability to stay. The negotiations going on right now in Egypt will be most interesting.

[jk]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

New York-based Palestinian-American writer Ismail Khalidi makes an apt social media joke on Twitter: #U.S. and #Israel change facebook relationship status with #Egypt to "It's complicated."

[jk]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Bernanke--Two Uprisings And Counting....
January 30, 2011 8:49 PM

Like most investors, I spent the weekend watching television trying to make sense of events in Egypt. First I tried American news networks, but quickly tired of them. Anyone care that a guy swallowed a quarter? Will Charlie Sheen survive rehab? If you want to know what’s going on anywhere in the Middle East, you tune into Al Jazeera’s English webcast.

I watched slightly scared reporters interview the crowds. Why are you rioting? There were the standard fare answers about corruption, incompetent leadership and the giant divide between the rich and poor—all true. What really struck me was the complaint about food prices. These guys blame the government because the price of wheat is up. If you have lived in a society where the government is responsible for your problems, you just assume that the government screwed this one up as well.

It brings up a comment that a friend made when describing Tunisia’s recent revolution. If you deprive people of democracy, basic human rights and their honor—they will cower and hide from you. If you deny them housing and economic opportunity—they may be upset. If you deny them food—they have no choice but to rise up and take it any way they can. People can live without a lot of things—food is not one of them.

Ben Bernanke has a view of the world where you can meet every crisis with money printing. If your worldview is confined to risk assets like the equity market, you are probably correct. Unfortunately, there are side-effects to this sort of strategy. Think of a fire hose—you can point it at a target and soak it, but you spray everything in the vicinity. Eventually, the water runs down the street and gets other things wet—things that you want to keep dry. The fire is largely out in equity land, but the water is now flowing into all sorts of places. It is flowing into precious metals. It is flowing into energy and it is now flowing into agricultural commodities.

Here in the first world, rising food prices are a nuisance. We shrug our shoulders and go on with life. In developing economies, food costs are a significant portion of someone’s total expenditures. A small increase in prices goes a long way towards destroying a family’s disposable income. A Bernanke induced food spike can overwhelm such a family. The scary thing is that food prices are just starting to run. This will get a whole lot worse in the near future. Bernanke is implementing QE2 yet QE1 has barely filtered its way through the system. We saw what happens when wheat goes from $5 to $8—people riot to feed themselves. What happens when wheat doubles from here? What if it triples? It won’t effect my standard of living much—people in the developing world will revolt.

The Egyptian government isn’t stupid. They’ve been scared of inflation for a while. There’s a reason that they’ve kept their discount rate at 8.5% for 16 months now. However, there is only so much you can do when Ben Bernanke is armed with the world’s largest water cannon and the wind is spraying a bit of it at you.

In Tunisia, it is fitting that a fruit vendor was the flash-point for the revolution. In Egypt, food is once again the issue. Kuwait has promised food subsidies to its people—they understand what Bernanke is up to. Around the world, expect more hungry people taking to the streets. Expect more crises. The fire is out, but Bernanke wants to smother the world in so much liquidity that there can never be another fire—ANYWHERE!

What are the investment implications? Make sure your overseas investments are in safe countries. Just because there is growth, that doesn’t mean that it’s politically stable growth. Expect higher food prices. The lesson for dictators seems to be that you cannot stop a riot once it starts. It’s much better to keep people fed. The only way to do that is to stockpile food ahead of time. For years, countries have ran-down their food stockpiles. Those will be dramatically restocked in the next few weeks. Volatility will increase dramatically over last year. If someone tells you that they know what will happen in Egypt, they are lying. No one has a clue what will happen—no one. Expect the unexpected.

Most people have this view that Mubarak’s reign is done and this is a good thing. I would caution that both statements need to be proven out. For starters, until Mubarak declares it’s over, it isn’t over. More importantly, there’s no way to know what comes after Mubarak. Remember, the Romans were happy to be relieved of Tiberius, until they learned a bit about the new guy—Caligula.

http://adventuresincapitalism.com/po...-Counting.aspx

[karim0028]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

New York-based Palestinian-American writer Ismail Khalidi makes an apt social media joke on Twitter: #U.S. and #Israel change facebook relationship status with #Egypt to "It's complicated."

Well, here's another joke

They asked Mubarak to write a goodbye note to the people of Egypt, so he asked "Why? Where are the people of Egypt going?" ;-)

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Bernanke--Two Uprisings And Counting....
January 30, 2011 8:49 PM

Like most investors, I spent the weekend watching television trying to make sense of events in Egypt. First I tried American news networks, but quickly tired of them. Anyone care that a guy swallowed a quarter? Will Charlie Sheen survive rehab? If you want to know what’s going on anywhere in the Middle East, you tune into Al Jazeera’s English webcast.

By coincidence, I spent the last few days in Kuwait and Bahrain and watched things unfold on al Jazeera (English) and a little on CNN Int'l. I felt the coverage on al Jazeera was excellent and pulled no punches in its criticism of the Mubarak regime. By contrast, CNN Int'l coverage was pretty good with the biggest difference being that while CNN had guest talking heads that were westerners with international experience; al Jazeera had real Arabs commenting on developments. Also, French24 had outstanding coverage of the Tunisia revolution and how the locals were adapting to the new order there. More insight in a 2 minute piece than a whole day of watching American TV.

[karim0028]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

By coincidence, I spent the last few days in Kuwait and Bahrain and watched things unfold on al Jazeera (English) and a little on CNN Int'l. I felt the coverage on al Jazeera was excellent and pulled no punches in its criticism of the Mubarak regime. By contrast, CNN Int'l coverage was pretty good with the biggest difference being that while CNN had guest talking heads that were westerners with international experience; al Jazeera had real Arabs commenting on developments. Also, French24 had outstanding coverage of the Tunisia revolution and how the locals were adapting to the new order there. More insight in a 2 minute piece than a whole day of watching American TV.

By and far Aljazeera is the best source of news and critical thinking info on ME issues... CNN is all opinion and talking heads that barely have any real world experience... In this day and age you practically have to watch every news source to figure out everyone's slant... I will watch Aljazeera, BBC, RussiaToday, Haaretz, etc and then laugh when i watch the dumbed down versions on CNN and FOX...

[EJ]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

I grow increasingly confident that the protests will continue relatively peacefully, that is, without destructive police interference, and then abruptly end with Mubarak or his son agreeing to run in upcoming presidential election in September. I give it until the end of next week, if not sooner. This explains the muted reaction of the stock and gold markets.

The outcome of the future Egyptian election is unknowable at this time and will shape the Middle East for the foreseeable future. It will be the most closely watched election on earth for the next six months.

[flintlock]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Well, it does sound plausible that state security organizations would want to make people choose between anarchy or tyranny. But I just remember the museums in Iraq being looted. No shortage of looters in a situation like this. Of course than doesn't mean the state wont give them some help.

[touchring]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Well, it does sound plausible that state security organizations would want to make people choose between anarchy or tyranny. But I just remember the museums in Iraq being looted. No shortage of looters in a situation like this. Of course than doesn't mean the state wont give them some help.

This is a common strategy in autocratic countries although threats are not always backed by actions.

Especially familiar to me is the press conveying the idea that America has murderers and rapists running lose all over, and this is what democracy will bring. Of course, the press would conveniently ignore the fact that Japan and South Korea, which are true democracies, but nonetheless safe countries with the lowest crime rates in the world.

[flintlock]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

John Bolton was on TV this morning saying that anyone who says he knows what will happen in Egypt is crazy. I tend to agree. Its a wild card. He also said power in Egypt is basically the Army and that currently Mubarak is the face of that power. They had him appoint Suleiman VP because that is who they want. This may be shaping up into a conflict between the Army and the Muslim brotherhood or other religious groups.

[oddlots]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

For anyone without access to Al Jazeera there's an application called livestation here that streams them live very effectively.

Agree that the coverage has been excellent. CNN set my teeth on edge.

[don]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Craig Labovitz, the creator of the graphic and chief scientist at Arbor Networks, says that he found no evidence of Internet disruption in Syria, debunking a report from Al Arabiya earlier Friday that suggested all service in Syria had been cut off.

from Vijay Prashad:

All revolutions are not identical. The colour revolutions in Eastern Europe had a different tempo. They were also of a different class character. They were also along the grain of US imperialism, even though the people were acting not for US but for their own specific class and national interests. I have in mind the Rose Revolution in Georgia and the Orange Revolution in the Ukraine. Otpor in the Ukraine, among others, was well lubricated by George Soros's Open Society and the US government's National Democratic Institute. Russian money also swept in on both sides of the ledger. These Eastern European revolutions were mainly political battles in regions of the world still unsettled by the traumatic transition from state socialism to shock capitalism.

The Arab revolt that we now witness is something akin to a "1968" for the Arab World. Sixty per cent of the Arab population is under 30 (70 per cent in Egypt). Their slogans are about dignity and employment. The resource curse brought wealth to a small population of their societies, but little economic development. Social development came to some parts of the Arab world: Tunisia's literacy rate is 75 per cent, Egypt's is just over 70 per cent, Libya almost 90 per cent. The educated lower-middle-class and middle-class youth have not been able to find jobs. The concatenation of humiliations revolts these young people: no job, no respect from an authoritarian state, and then to top it off the general malaise of being a second-class citizen on the world stage - second to the US-Israel and so on - was overwhelming. The chants on the streets are about this combination of dignity, justice and jobs.

The youth, the working class, the middle class have opened up the tempo of struggle. The direction it will take is not clear. I am given over to analogies when I see revolutions, largely because the events of change are so contingent.

It is in the melee that spontaneity and structure jostle. The organised working class is weaker than the organised theocratic bloc, at least in Egypt. Social change of a progressive type has come to the Arab lands largely through the Colonels. Workers' struggles have not reached fruition in any country. In Iraq, where the workers movement was advanced in the 1950s, it was preempted by the military - and then they made a tacit alliance.

One cannot say what is going to happen with certainty. The Mexican Revolution opened up in 1911, but didn't settle into the PRI regime till the writing of the 1917 constitution and the elevation of Carranza to the presidency in 1920 or perhaps Cardenas in 1934. I find many parallels between Mexico and Egypt. In both, the Left was not sufficiently developed. Perils of the Right always lingered. If the Pharonic state withers, as Porfirio Diaz's state did, the peasants and the working class might move beyond spontaneity and come forward with some more structure. Spontaneity is fine, but if power is not seized effectively, counter-revolution will rise forth effectively and securely.

If such a transformation fails, then we are in for at least three options: (1) the military, under Egyptian ruling class and US pressure, will take control. This is off the cards in Tunisia for now, mainly because the second option presented itself; (2) elements of the ruling coalition are able to dissipate the crowds through a series of hasty concessions, notably the removal of the face of the autocracy (Ben Ali to Saudi Arabia). If Mubarak leaves and the reins of the Mubarakian state are handed over to the safe-keeping of one of his many bloodsoaked henchman such as Omar Suleiman…. Mubarak tried this with Ahmed Shafik, but he could as well have gone to Tantawi….all generals who are close to Mubarak and seen as safe by the ruling bloc. We shall wait to see who all among the elite will start to distance themselves from Mubarak, and try to reach out to the streets for credibility. As a last-ditch effort, the Shah of Iran put Shapour Bakhtiar as PM. That didn't work. Then the revolt spread further. If that does not work, then, (3) the US embassy will send a message to Mohamed El-Baradei, giving him their green light. El-Baradei is seen by the Muslim Brotherhood as a credible candidate. Speaking to the crowds on January 30 he said that in a few days the matter will be settled. Does this mean that he will be the new state leader, with the backing of the Muslim Brotherhood, and certainly with sections of Mubarak's clique? Will this be sufficient for the crowds? They might have to live with it. El-Baradei is a maverick, having irritated Washington at the IAEA over Iran. He will not be a pushover. On the other hand, he will probably carry on the economic policy of Mubarak. His entire agenda was for political reforms. This is along the grain of the IMF-World Bank Structural Adjustment part 2, viz., the same old privatisation agenda alongside "good governance". El-Baradei wanted good governance in Egypt. The streets want more. It will be a truce for the moment.

The Muslim Brotherhood is on the streets. It has set its own ideology to mute. That is very clear. Its spokesperson Gamel Nasser has said that they are only a small part of the protests, and that the protest is about Egypt not Islam. This is very clever. It is similar to what the mullahs said in Iran during the protests of 1978 and 1979. They waited in the wings for the "multitude" to overthrow the Shah, and then they descended. Would the MB do that? If one says this is simply the people's revolt and not that of any organised force, it's, of course, true. But it is inadequate. The 'people' can be mobilised, can act; but can the 'people' govern without mediation, without some structure. This is where the structured elements come into play. If there is no alternative that forms, then the Muslim Brotherhood will take power. That the Muslim Brotherhood wants to stand behind El-Baradei means they don't want to immediately antagonise the US. That will come later.

El-Baradei comes with credibility. He served in the Nasserite ministry of external affairs in the 1960s. He then served in the foreign ministry under Ismail Fahmi. One forgets how impressive Fahmi was. He resigned from Sadat's cabinet when the Egyptian leader went to Jerusalem. Fahmi was a Nasserite. For one year, El-Baradei served with Boutros Boutros Ghali at the foreign ministry. That was the start of this relationship. Both fled for the UN bureaucracy. Boutros Ghali was more pliant than Fahmi. I think El-Baradei is more along Fahmi's lines. At the IAEA he did not bend to the US pressure. Given that he spent the worst years of Mubarak's rule outside Cairo gives him credibility. A man of his class would have been coopted into the Mubarak rule. Only an outsider like him can be both of the ruling bloc (in terms of class position and instinct) and outside the ruling apparatus (i. e. of Mubarak's cabinet circle). It is a point of great privilege. With the MB careful not to act in its own face, and the 'people' without easy ways to spot leaders, and with Ayman Nour not in the best of health, it is credible that El-Baradei takes on the mantle.

Don't underestimate the repression. In Egypt, the 2006 budget for internal security was $1.5 billion. There are 1.5 million police officers, four times more than army personnel. I am told that there is now about 1 police officer per 37 people. This is extreme. The subvention that comes from the US of $1.3 billion helps fund this monstrosity.