Escalation in Egypt

[metalman]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Now, is ANYBODY surprised that the head of the Intelligence Service has been appointed by Hosni as Vice-President, and heir-apparent?

The last desparate acts of a desparate regime....

desperate act to be sure... but the last? don't forget george bush sr...

ok, i know. no comparison... but the possibility of an islamic oil supply is real, isn't it? that doesn't mean the oil stops but it does mean that even more oil $$$ goes to the bad guys than before.

[don]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Two Scenarios for the People and the Army in Egypt: Interview with Mohammed Ezzeldin

by Paul Jay

Mohammed Ezzeldin: We have two main scenarios now regarding the relation between the people and the army. We have the Tunisian scenario. There's a division in the ruling elites, there is division in the regime, so the army will be neutral: the tanks and soldiers and officers in the streets, they are just maintaining the security of the people, they are securing the people from any brutality practiced by the police. This is the first scenario, the Tunisian scenario. The second scenario, which happened in Iran in [1978-]1979: when the Shah started to give orders to the army to involve themselves, to suppress demonstration against the Shah, and asked them to shoot the demonstrators, they did so. But after a while there was a huge division and severe division inside the army. And this moment, actually, it's a turning point in any dictatorship when the army supporting the dictator or supporting the one ruling party suffers from a division. We don't know, we don't have clear information about what's going on in Egypt, how the events in coming days are going to unfold. The chief of staff of the Egyptian army was here on a visit to the United States just one day before the demonstrations broke out. And it seems, for many commentators and many people who analyze the situation, that there's a sort of behind-the-scene negotiations between the Pentagon and the Egyptian army or the Egyptian ministry of defense. One of the newspapers yesterday just published a piece of news about this, about these bilateral talks, because these people are very crucial and very cautious about what's going to happen, because many people in Egypt, or the majority of the Egyptian people, understand that the army, having millions of dollars every year as an aid --.

Paul Jay: Yeah, we think it's $1.3 billion of American aid, although do we know if that's all goes to the military? Or does some of that go to the police?

Mohammed Ezzeldin: Most of them go to the military, I guess. But, you know, the budget of the military and the budget of the police are not discussed, and they are not publicly published or even discussed in the Parliament. So I don't have clear information about it. But what I'm sure about: that these bilateral talks actually are going to ensure one thing that the United States and the Pentagon and the White House, of course, are interested in, which is the security of Israel. The indecisive situations and positions taken by Hillary Clinton and President Obama in the last two days actually shows one thing, one clear thing, to be frank: that the United States is not interested in any democracy or grassroots democracy or program of democracy in Egypt. Their main concern is the security of Israel -- and other things, but this is their main concern, okay?

Paul Jay: The Egyptian army, given that it gets $1.3 billion a year -- that's a lot of money and it buys you a lot of generals -- the Pentagon must have a lot of influence inside the Egyptian army.

Mohammed Ezzeldin: I don't know, but maybe. We can expect a lot of things. But what actually was clear today from Mubarak's speech: he's completely consolidated and supported by the army.

Paul Jay: He didn't look like someone afraid that he might have to get on a plane.

Mohammed Ezzeldin: Yeah, he was completely confident and completely unaffected and disconnected from reality. What happened actually made many people feel in the streets that the army . . . might play a role in suppressing Egypt's road to democratization.

Paul Jay: And if they do that, it's hard to believe they would do that without some kind of green light from the Pentagon here in Washington.

Mohammed Ezzeldin: I guess so. I believe so.

---

Mohammed Ezzeldin, a graduate of Cairo University (B.A. in political science), is studying for his master's degree in history at Georgetown University. This video was released by The Real News on 29 January 2011.

[iyamwutiam]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Well apparently the US has worked out it's "strategy" - the police have become plainclothes looters fomenting 'insecurity'. The MSM is assiduously conveying the situation as chaotic to lay foundation for army intervention- to bring order. As many have stated the genie is out of the bottle and this attempt to depict the situation as mass rioting and looting should be met with scorn and ridicule.

Quite frankly -I must credit the Egyptian people -rarely have we seen protesters by the tens of thousands behave so cordially and peacefully. The fact that Egypt is not ablaze despite 100s of deaths by the security apparatus does show the leadership is there and that fears of a shift to a fundamentalist theocracy is hyperbole. I fear that once again -the US has failed ignominiously and the guise of 'supporting' democracy been stripped to reveal a callous, indifferent and inherently colonial power. Seems to me this 2012 thing may actually have some significance. If by 2012 -Yemen/Jordan/Lebanon/Egypt and Syria have been toppled -this would be the first true pan-islamist movement with genuine leadership who have learned their lessons well in hallowed prisons that fostered lessons in patience, strategy and believe it or not diplomacy.

Also -I find it ironic that demonstrators FROM Egypt (expatriates) are actually out and about with signs condemning the multi-decade support of an obviously brutal kleptocrat. The Shah/Saddam Husein/House of Saud/ Abdullah -the hits don't stop coming from our highly esteemed State Department and Diplomatic corps. Why do we even have these positions when they can all be eliminated and the decision making process be directly out sourced to Tel Aviv -since most of the power brokers in the US are essentially Israeli anyway. It would be a practical and honest way to cut the deficit imo.

[GRG55]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

desperate act to be sure... but the last? don't forget george bush sr...

ok, i know. no comparison... but the possibility of an islamic oil supply is real, isn't it? that doesn't mean the oil stops but it does mean that even more oil $$$ goes to the bad guys than before.

Oil seems to have the power to corrupt more than anything else on earth.
Note how quickly the purity of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran replaced a corrupt Shah with an at least equally corrupt theocracy and Revolutionary Guard military adjunct.
The long standing Energy Minister in the State of Qatar, who had a wide spread reputation for NOT tolerating baksheesh, has just been removed. No points for guessing one of the reasons why.
Nigeria is a significant OPEC oil exporter and natural gas producer, but imports virtually all of the finished petroleum products and ammonia [nat gas] based fertilizers consumed in that massive country. Now why would it be "impossible" to build a refinery or ammonia fertilizer plant inside the country to process a part of its own oil and gas production for the domestic market? Because cutting someone else's grass can get you killed.
So it would seem that regardless of who is in charge, virtually every petroleum energy exporter ends up being run by "bad guys"...


As for desperate acts, the game being played here is that long standing, corrupt leaders the world over always want to install a successor that is loyal to them. That is the way they try to avoid having their unsavoury past revealed, or worse being put on trial in their own country after leaving office. The alternative for the Mubaraks of this world is exile to avoid that fate.
This is one of the reasons the riots in Tunisia have not stopped. Far too many of the despised regime remain in the country, and in positions of power. The hope of the exiled Tunisian President, without doubt, is that these people will remain loyal to him, and if they are able to retain power there is the possibility of his return at some point in the future. If they cannot he will never be able to return without risking being arrested and put on trial.
Mubarak is soon to be in the same position [word is that his wife Suzanne and two sons are already in London]. If he cannot position his trusted cronies, and if they cannot maintain their hold on power, he is unlikely to ever return to Egypt once he is forced out. The last desperate acts of a desperate regime...

[touchring]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Mubarak is soon to be in the same position [word is that his wife Suzanne and two sons are already in London]. If he cannot position his trusted cronies, and if they cannot maintain their hold on power, he is unlikely to ever return to Egypt once he is forced out. The last desperate acts of a desperate regime...

Ironically, if Mubarak doesn't step down before there is chaos, the UK and the US will be the greatest losers if fundamentalists take the chance to seize power.

[GRG55]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Ironically, if Mubarak doesn't step down before there is chaos, the UK and the US will be the greatest losers if fundamentalists take the chance to seize power.

Depending on the outcome, the greatests losers or the greatest winners will be the people of Egypt.

[touchring]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Ironically, if Mubarak doesn't step down before there is chaos, the UK and the US will be the greatest losers if fundamentalists take the chance to seize power.

Well, i guess it is starting to happen.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wor..._Armed_Guards_

Muslim militants and other prisoners were released from at least four jails after a lack of police officers allowed armed groups to attack the buildings, according to reports.
Thirty-four Muslim Brothers walked out of another prison near Cairo after guards left their posts amid continuing turmoil in the country, one of their lawyers told reporters.

[GRG55]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Well, i guess it is starting to happen.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wor..._Armed_Guards_

I don't understand how you can come to this conclusion if you've actually been watching the coverage coming out of Egypt, or read the article that you posted. Looks like a whole lot LESS chaos in the cities of Egypt today. Here's an excerpt:

"...With the police presence diminished, armoured personnel carriers and tanks belonging to the army have surrounded government buildings and archaeological sites in Cairo in an effort to protect vital heritage and infrastructure sites.

However, the military presence has been mostly welcomed by protesters, a stark contrast to the reception police received during the unrest."

[jk]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

it looks increasingly that the regime's strategy is to maintain a large military presence, secure the loyalty and centrality of the military by appointing military leaders as both vice-president and prime minister, while avoiding a violent clampdown, and allowing the [peaceful] demonstrations to go on until people tire of them, i.e. they burn themselves out. one issue will be whether the flow of day to day supplies, especially food, can be maintained while the demonstrations proceed.

[flintlock]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

Well apparently the US has worked out it's "strategy" - the police have become plainclothes looters fomenting 'insecurity'. The MSM is assiduously conveying the situation as chaotic to lay foundation for army intervention- to bring order. As many have stated the genie is out of the bottle and this attempt to depict the situation as mass rioting and looting should be met with scorn and ridicule.

Quite frankly -I must credit the Egyptian people -rarely have we seen protesters by the tens of thousands behave so cordially and peacefully. The fact that Egypt is not ablaze despite 100s of deaths by the security apparatus does show the leadership is there and that fears of a shift to a fundamentalist theocracy is hyperbole. I fear that once again -the US has failed ignominiously and the guise of 'supporting' democracy been stripped to reveal a callous, indifferent and inherently colonial power. Seems to me this 2012 thing may actually have some significance. If by 2012 -Yemen/Jordan/Lebanon/Egypt and Syria have been toppled -this would be the first true pan-islamist movement with genuine leadership who have learned their lessons well in hallowed prisons that fostered lessons in patience, strategy and believe it or not diplomacy.

Also -I find it ironic that demonstrators FROM Egypt (expatriates) are actually out and about with signs condemning the multi-decade support of an obviously brutal kleptocrat. The Shah/Saddam Husein/House of Saud/ Abdullah -the hits don't stop coming from our highly esteemed State Department and Diplomatic corps. Why do we even have these positions when they can all be eliminated and the decision making process be directly out sourced to Tel Aviv -since most of the power brokers in the US are essentially Israeli anyway. It would be a practical and honest way to cut the deficit imo.

With all due respect, how do you know that the looters are plants? I'd find it incredible if there wasn't looting taking place in these circumstances. No need for the government to instigate it. I will say the picture I saw of protesters all stopping to pray was a first!

[karim0028]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

With all due respect, how do you know that the looters are plants? I'd find it incredible if there wasn't looting taking place in these circumstances. No need for the government to instigate it. I will say the picture I saw of protesters all stopping to pray was a first!

trust me this is nothing new... Egypt has that type of state security... Scare the people into wanting the iron fist rule instead of insecurity... Brings a new meaning to the quote "those who would give up freedom for security shall have neither"....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag

Egyptians by nature are not really hostile folks, there is alot of communal feeling and the govt is the most aggressive entity i have seen there... As an example, there were rumors that the national museum was going to be looted so thousands of protesters formed a human shield to protect the national history museum... And now that there are no police controls alot of youth have formed neighborhood watch to ward of looters.. I have a friend who is a 27 year old doctor grabbed 3 knives and grabbed some of his friends and stood in front of their building and cordon off their block to protect the neighborhood...

[don]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

State Department Mumbo-Jumbo with Subtitles....

[touchring]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

I don't understand how you can come to this conclusion if you've actually been watching the coverage coming out of Egypt, or read the article that you posted. Looks like a whole lot LESS chaos in the cities of Egypt today. Here's an excerpt:

"...With the police presence diminished, armoured personnel carriers and tanks belonging to the army have surrounded government buildings and archaeological sites in Cairo in an effort to protect vital heritage and infrastructure sites.

However, the military presence has been mostly welcomed by protesters, a stark contrast to the reception police received during the unrest."

I'm talking about the long run. If Mubarak manages to hang on, there will be more trouble to come, especially when his position is very much weakened. If he trips, the next dictator that grabs power may not be as obedient to the USA.

It's better if he allows for fresh elections under the guidance of the UN and maybe the UK. This is in the best interest of not just Egypt, but also the US and also the world, but then again, sometimes, the best interest of Israel triumphs over the best interest of anyone else. ;)

Even that, I think it's foolish of Israel to rely on a 82 year old man.

[Sharky]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

So far there seems to be substantial political unrest in:

Greece
Tunisia
Libya
Algeria
Egypt
Albania
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Jordan
Yemen
Algeria

Where have I missed?

[oddlots]

Re: Escalation in Egypt

This struck me as some good commentary:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...im-brotherhood

Comment is freeTell everyone: Egypt's revolution is sweet and peaceful

I am sorry, the man tells me, but I hate your president. What is this speech he gives? Why can't he support us? He says we can have human rights but he gives us no political rights? To America, we are monkeys, monkeys, monkeys. We Egyptians don't deserve a constitution, don't deserve freedom, don't deserve democracy.

We are in the streets every day since 25 January and you give us Omar Suleiman, an agent? We are out here demanding our rights and you give us the head of intelligence? We will not accept Suleiman. America puts the security of Israel above the people of Egypt. We are monkeys to America. They are saying we Egyptians don't deserve political rights, don't deserve freedom. It's over… the fact that the outside world continues to engage this guy Mubarak is ridiculous. It's over.