Egyptian Unrest

[BigBagel]

The USA gives 1.3 billion in military aid annually to Egyptian kleptocrats. Will the hardware that money bought be used on the Egyptian people?

[karim0028]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

Here's to hoping for a peaceful revolution like Tunisia...

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

The USA gives 1.3 billion in military aid annually to Egyptian kleptocrats. Will the hardware that money bought be used on the Egyptian people?

Most(but not all) US military aid to Egypt is along the lines of conventional military systems and capabilities like the F16 and M1 tank.

Stuff that's effective in a conventional conflict...but not likely to offer much when facing the prospect of a domestic insurrection.

Investments in domestic /internet surveillance, data mining/matching, counter-terrorism equipment/training, riot control, etc would be of greater use to the current regime than the vast majority of US military aid in the past 30 years.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

Here's to hoping for a peaceful revolution like Tunisia...

Yes and No....

Firstly, I'd like nothing more for the ME region than to see it enjoy the benefits of democracy.

But I reckon it's too soon to tell what will happen in Tunisia.....

And to be honest, I think a transition to democracy in places like Egypt, Syria, and especially Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, have the risk of blowing up in our faces.

In Egypt and Saudi Arabia...you have two close US allies......but aren't only the leadership "castes" of both countries closely aligned with the US and the West? What about the general population?

And this is where my interests lie with iTulip(beyond just personal wealth preservation)....the geopolitical consequences(direct and indirect) of the destructive FIRE economy.....cascading out to cause harm in a few predictable and many dangerously unpredictable ways.

What would the relationship between democratic-ish Libya/Saudi Arabia/Kuwait and the west look like?

More importantly, how would their citizenry view those relationships?

Egypt and Syria, with the possibility of considerable Muslim Brotherhood influence and control if democracy takes hold, could represent a continued threat to Israel(therefore the US, and the world involuntarily).

In my opinion, the road to democracy for a number of nations in the Middle East could represent some considerable benefits to their respective peoples, but it could also be to the significant detriment to the West.

I wonder how many folks in influence and control will be looking to the many failures of Africa's transition into a post colonial shambles that kicked off bigtime in the 60's and into the 70's?

How different was the Colonial era Africa environment UP to the transition to Independence in the 1960's with the current pseudo outsourced colonialism-lite(or maybe just the declining remnants of it) we see in the ME today.

Careful what we ask for, we just might get it.

[flintlock]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

I'm not convinced a pro-democracy movement in most ME countries would necessarily be friendly towards the US.

[don]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

Isn't this in many ways part of a world-wide revolt against international debt merchants, joining Iceland, Ireland, MEGA-land, Greece, etc.

[karim0028]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

I'm not convinced a pro-democracy movement in most ME countries would necessarily be friendly towards the US.

Sadly, i would almost guarantee that a grass roots movement in many if not all ME countries would not be friendly to US intertests... NOT the US itself or Americans... Just interests... Folks over there actually have nothing better to keep them busy (like american idol, they do have all that shit, but the populace is still more educated) other than read news; politics is a very much talked about topic and they dont have FOX to shape their pro-american everything mantra

Most people like to have control of their own destiny and not be dictated to.

[don]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

Let's see:

Grass root revolts during Britannia's heyday-

not pro-Britannia

Grass root revolts during Rome's domination of the ancient world.

not pro-Roman.

Hmmmm.

I'm seeing a pattern here ....

[mmr]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

It will be interesting to see how the administration handles this - after the Iranian revolution, Saddam was useful in keeping Iran tied up and using up much of the military hardware we had sold to the Shah (at least until '91).

It doesn't seem so obvious who will fill that role if Egypt revolts and an anti-American government takes over. Since we can't really use Israel for that purpose unless someone wants to start a war involving the whole neighborhood, maybe someone will decide that Muammar Gaddafi isn't such a bad guy after all?

[touchring]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

It will be interesting to see how the administration handles this - after the Iranian revolution, Saddam was useful in keeping Iran tied up and using up much of the military hardware we had sold to the Shah (at least until '91).

It doesn't seem so obvious who will fill that role if Egypt revolts and an anti-American government takes over. Since we can't really use Israel for that purpose unless someone wants to start a war involving the whole neighborhood, maybe someone will decide that Muammar Gaddafi isn't such a bad guy after all?

1 Iraq not enuff? As far as i can see, a middle eastern country either allies with NATO or with Russia and China.

Bush's failure was due to his inability to identify the real enemy. Nowadays no one cares with democracy, people are only concerned about money and economic development.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

It will be interesting to see how the administration handles this - after the Iranian revolution, Saddam was useful in keeping Iran tied up and using up much of the military hardware we had sold to the Shah (at least until '91).

It doesn't seem so obvious who will fill that role if Egypt revolts and an anti-American government takes over. Since we can't really use Israel for that purpose unless someone wants to start a war involving the whole neighborhood, maybe someone will decide that Muammar Gaddafi isn't such a bad guy after all?

Gaddafi has been in power even longer than Mubarak.

And he's probably sweating a power transition to the next generation even more than Mubarak...what with Mubarak's failing health and advanced age....Gaddafi's likely to live a while's longer.

Egypt and Libya had some serious border clashes in the mid 70's....Libya got it's ass kicked.

Libya's military has a perfect losing record.

Egypt's military is generally well regarded(at least by non-Israeli, regional military standards) both by Egyptians and in the region.

I almost wonder if Egypt's military could play a role in "what's next" if things get exciting in Egypt.

Surely a democracy rife with Muslim Brotherhood influence and control would scare the poop out of a lot of people.

I'd guess a coup along the lines of Pakistan in 99....to keep things going as is....could be a possibility if things go pear shaped in Egypt.

[mmr]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

Agree that a coup would be much more effective if the US decides that it wants to exert control (assuming that anyone would be willing to step into the Musharraf role - that job seems like it might cut back on one's life expectancy somewhat).

[touchring]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

Agree that a coup would be much more effective if the US decides that it wants to exert control (assuming that anyone would be willing to step into the Musharraf role - that job seems like it might cut back on one's life expectancy somewhat).

What does the US need a piece of desert for when the US has almost lost South East Asia?

[GRG55]

Re: Egyptian Unrest

What does the US need a piece of desert for when the US has almost lost South East Asia?

Because Egypt is the single most influential country politically and economically in the Middle East. By far.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Egyptian Unrest




photos:

http://www.businessinsider.com/egypt...ght-in-egypt-1