Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

Of course the small problem is the assumption of the trend being due to a very specific cause: anthropogenic CO2.

The second problem is that the temperature records in question are generally quite short. And inconsistent vs. past methods/areas/numbers of monitoring stations.

Records like the Central England Temperature, on the other hand, extend back to 1659 and is consistent.

Yet we don't hear much about this: December 2010 was the second coldest EVER in the CET - a span of 350+ years:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central...nd_temperature

It should be noted that the end of the Little Ice Age is generally believed to have been around 1650, with secondary minimums in 1770 and 1850. Note the other record lows in comparison to these dates.

And then of course there are the other inconvenient facts:

Ocean heat content is not only not rising, it is dropping:



Yes, this is the 'travesty' of missing heat from the infamous ClimateGate email by Kevin Trenberth.

Note that the spike in 2000 was due to the El Nino induced temperature spike in 1998; since then nothing. Nor does this graph resemble the atmospheric CO2 graph in any way, shape, or form:



And of course along with the ongoing litany of failed, false, or just plain fraudulent predictions:

1) IPCC temperature projections continue to be too high
2) Polar Bears not dying off
3) Glaciers in not shrinking due to temperature
4) Arctic not ice free - in fact ships are stuck in the ice as we speak
5) Winter snow not disappearing, especially so in England (!)
6) Amazon not dying off due to drought or any other 'climate change' issue

the list goes on and on.

Where is the independent observation of the high temp for the day going to be taken from on Jan 14th: Victoria Int'l Airport?

Currently, going into the test, I am recording on my tree station 43F (+6C) at 4:40 PST, but my station is 700 feet above sea-level. So it will be warm to-morrow. Victoria Int'l Airport should be reporting 45F or 46F at this hour....... The key point is that the independent test has to be independent. Let's use Victoria Int'l Airport from Environment Canada. We need 52F (11C) to-morrow for a high-temp to confirm the forecast by Environment Canada.

This is EXCITING! The test begins to-morrow, and the global warming bunch may win this bet. The key point is that the test has to be fair and objective, i.e, INDEPENDENT. (The deck can not be stacked in favour of a certain result.)



By the way, the warmer it is here for a high temp on Jan 14th, the colder it would be in the Upper Mid-West of the U.S. and the South-east of the U.S. This is going to be fun!

We can even check Winnipeg Int'l Airport, too. The real science begins to-morrow, because if the Earth is warming, it would be warm everywhere. Let's see what the "inconvenient truth" really is.

[jacobdcoates]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

C1ue,

There you go again thinking truth will ever influence people's mind, institutional policy, govt decisions, or any other thing that has something to gain by what it believes. but especially when it contradicts the world view and/or its' desires for what the world should be like.

[Verrocchio]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

Where is the independent observation of the high temp for the day going to be taken from on Jan 14th: Victoria Int'l Airport?

Currently, going into the test, I am recording on my tree station 43F (+6C) at 4:40 PST, but my station is 700 feet above sea-level. So it will be warm to-morrow. Victoria Int'l Airport should be reporting 45F or 46F at this hour....... The key point is that the independent test has to be independent. Let's use Victoria Int'l Airport from Environment Canada. We need 52F (11C) to-morrow for a high-temp to confirm the forecast by Environment Canada.

This is EXCITING! The test begins to-morrow, and the global warming bunch may win this bet. The key point is that the test has to be fair and objective, i.e, INDEPENDENT. (The deck can not be stacked in favour of a certain result.)



By the way, the warmer it is here for a high temp on Jan 14th, the colder it would be in the Upper Mid-West of the U.S. and the South-east of the U.S. This is going to be fun!

We can even check Winnipeg Int'l Airport, too. The real science begins to-morrow, because if the Earth is warming, it would be warm everywhere. Let's see what the "inconvenient truth" really is.

Let us know how your record keeping works out, SS. In the meanwhile, let's take a look at a report on the data the NOAA has put together. By the way, C1ue, you focused on the data on ocean temperature. That shows a decline, along with two other indicators; however, there are seven indicators tracked by the NOAA that are on the increase.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

Then, of course, there is this: Just came out the other day


**WARNING*** The national weather service has issued a falling bird warning for Pittsburgh next Saturday starting at 4:30 and continuing until the end of the fourth quarter.
Falling birds could be heavy at times especially around the Heinz Field area. Heavy accumulation is likely

[radon]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

Let us know how your record keeping works out, SS. In the meanwhile, let's take a look at a report on the data the NOAA has put together. By the way, C1ue, you focused on the data on ocean temperature. That shows a decline, along with two other indicators; however, there are seven indicators tracked by the NOAA that are on the increase.

He won't look at the data. He just cherry picks ocean temperature because it is convenient.

Meanwhile the arctic is enduring strange weather patterns such as winter rain and temperature spikes in the mid 50Fs. Complete with animals falling through the ice and dying because it is too thin. This is shaping up to be the warmest winter on record - hot on the heels of the warmest summer. The climate is nothing at all like it was 30 or 40 years ago.

And yes, the polar bears are a problem because when they begin to starve in the summer due to lack of sea ice they come hundreds of miles inland and cause trouble. They need the ice to hunt and cannot swim several hundered miles to get to it. To say that the lack of summer ice has no effect on a species whose life depends on it is nonsensical.

[c1ue]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

By the way, C1ue, you focused on the data on ocean temperature. That shows a decline, along with two other indicators; however, there are seven indicators tracked by the NOAA that are on the increase.

Quite true, but note that the ocean's are - to what I read - supposedly the place where global warming is supposed to show up.

Because the vast majority of energy, hence the extra energy/heat trapped by CO2 - Anthropogenic or otherwise, is in the oceans.

Equally so, the largest single heat transfer mechanism on earth is evaporation of water vapor - again the oceans play the dominant role.

The point is simple: if any man made mechanism - CO2 or methane or whatever - is truly affecting the energy retention capability of Earth, this energy should be manifesting in the oceans' heat content.

Or put another way - the mass of the entire atmosphere is 1.35 x 10exp21 kg; the mass of the atmosphere is 5 x 10exp18 kg.

The oceans have 270 times the mass of the atmosphere and in turn 2,700,000 times the mass of atmospheric CO2.

Vs. anthropogenic CO2 - the oceans have approximately 54,000,000 times the mass. Note I've assumed the anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere is now 5% when recent research indicates the percentage hasn't changed in 150 years from slightly over 4%.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

C1ue,

There you go again thinking truth will ever influence people's mind, institutional policy, govt decisions, or any other thing that has something to gain by what it believes. but especially when it contradicts the world view and/or its' desires for what the world should be like.

I do NOT know what the truth is, but Environment Canada at Victoria International Airport will record the high and the low for to-day. Let's check to see what they will be. And then, we could check other climate stations around North America. So long as we have electricity here in East Sooke, British Columbia, I would be able to post the result of our test. But you may verify INDEPENDENTLY the result of our test at Environment Canada. And then we might look at SF Int'l Airport and see what the National Weather Service from NOAA is posting there......... This is real science, not junk science.

Right now, while this day is underway, I am recording (unofficially) 42.6F (+6C) under my tree in East Sooke, BC. The time is 9:36AM PST, Jan 14th in light rain. That would mean Victoria Airport is probably around +7C or +8C. But the day has just begun......

Will we reach +11C (52F) at Victoria International Airport to-day? I have no agenda except to do real climatology.

[c1ue]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

He won't look at the data. He just cherry picks ocean temperature because it is convenient.

Meanwhile the arctic is enduring strange weather patterns such as winter rain and temperature spikes in the mid 50Fs. Complete with animals falling through the ice and dying because it is too thin. This is shaping up to be the warmest winter on record - hot on the heels of the warmest summer. The climate is nothing at all like it was 30 or 40 years ago.

And yes, the polar bears are a problem because when they begin to starve in the summer due to lack of sea ice they come hundreds of miles inland and cause trouble. They need the ice to hunt and cannot swim several hundered miles to get to it. To say that the lack of summer ice has no effect on a species whose life depends on it is nonsensical.

Yes, amusing that 'cherry picking' is something apparently only I do.

Arctic Sea Ice bottomed out in lowest extent in 2007 - and has not approached that level since then.

The 'ice free' Arctic as we speak:



And the polar bears?

It is apparently not enough that all those pictures of the 'poor polar bears' were photoshopped?

That the institutions crying out for protection of the polar bears not coincidentally gain the most from said animal's "status"?

That polar bear populations are higher now than at any time since the polar bear hunting ban was instituted?

The real threat to polar bears was people shooting them. Now we're inventing another one.

Will we reach +11C (52F) at Victoria International Airport to-day? I have no agenda except to do real climatology.

Steve,

Checking temperatures at a specific airport at a specific time is the definition of weather, not climate.

The surfacestations.org project has been for some time examining how the remaining temperature monitoring stations in the US are sited according to GISS' own guidelines.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

Yes, amusing that 'cherry picking' is something apparently only I do.

Arctic Sea Ice bottomed out in lowest extent in 2007 - and has not approached that level since then.

The 'ice free' Arctic as we speak:



And the polar bears?

It is apparently not enough that all those pictures of the 'poor polar bears' were photoshopped?

That the institutions crying out for protection of the polar bears not coincidentally gain the most from said animal's "status"?

That polar bear populations are higher now than at any time since the polar bear hunting ban was instituted?

The real threat to polar bears was people shooting them. Now we're inventing another one.



Steve,

Checking temperatures at a specific airport at a specific time is the definition of weather, not climate.

The surfacestations.org project has been for some time examining how the remaining temperature monitoring stations in the US are sited according to GISS' own guidelines.

I always use AIRPORTS because I don't want buildings around the climate station. The fewer buildings, the better, so I love AIRPORTS. But even airports have problems because there are buildings at airports too.

I am NOT cherry-picking the data, because the high and low will be the official high and low posted by Environment Canada in Canada, and NOAA in the U.S.

I am preferring to observe Minneapolis-St. Paul Int'l Airport, also Winnipeg Int'l Airport, also Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta, Georgia. I picked those airports because the NOAA forecast was for much-below normal temps on Jan 14th in the South-east U.S. and also much-below normal in the Upper Mid-west.

I am going to compare the 30-year normals to the low and high at these airports for Jan 14th.

I also am going to post SF Int'l Airport, also Victoria Int'l Airport. I just want to do climatology.

Yes, the real tale is whether the oceans are heating-up or not, and how much of the oceans are heating-up? The oceans have the bulk of the heat-storage on Earth for two reasons: 1.) water has an enormous heat-capacity; and 2.) water in the oceans have an enormous mass. That is the physics of whether the Earth is warming or not.

But I just want to see whether Jan 14th is going to be correct, according to NOAA's predictions for the Upper Mid-west and also the South-east of the U.S. They may be correct. Also, Environment Canada is predicting 12C (54F) now for Victoria Int'l Airport as the high, and that would mean blossoms---- or atleast buds on the lilacs in Victoria. So far, Environment Canada is winning this bet.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

I always use AIRPORTS because I don't want buildings around the climate station. The fewer buildings, the better, so I love AIRPORTS. But even airports have problems because there are buildings at airports too.

I am NOT cherry-picking the data, because the high and low will be the official high and low posted by Environment Canada in Canada, and NOAA in the U.S.

I am preferring to observe Minneapolis-St. Paul Int'l Airport, also Winnipeg Int'l Airport, also Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta, Georgia. I picked those airports because the NOAA forecast was for much-below normal temps on Jan 14th in the South-east U.S. and also much-below normal in the Upper Mid-west.

I am going to compare the 30-year normals to the low and high at these airports for Jan 14th.

I also am going to post SF Int'l Airport, also Victoria Int'l Airport. I just want to do climatology.

Yes, the real tale is whether the oceans are heating-up or not, and how much of the oceans are heating-up? The oceans have the bulk of the heat-storage on Earth for two reasons: 1.) water has an enormous heat-capacity; and 2.) water in the oceans have an enormous mass. That is the physics of whether the Earth is warming or not.

But I just want to see whether Jan 14th is going to be correct, according to NOAA's predictions for the Upper Mid-west and also the South-east of the U.S. They may be correct. Also, Environment Canada is predicting 12C (54F) now for Victoria Int'l Airport as the high, and that would mean blossoms---- or atleast buds on the lilacs in Victoria. So far, Environment Canada is winning this bet.

As of 4:35 PM PST, Victoria International Airport recorded a high of 13C (57.4F). The normal high is 6.7C. So, this was a very warm day.

As of 4:37 PM CST, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport recorded a high of 17F and a low of 14F. It looks like it was about 4F above normal for the date. I used the Daily Climate Report there.

As of 5PM PST, using San Francisco International Airport's Daily Climate Report, the high was 59F, low 51F, mean 55F, normal 49F. So this was a warm day, about 6-degrees F above the mean for the date. But notice the drunk walking on the climate trend graph at: nws.noaa.gov/sfo

As of 7PM CST, Winnipeg's Richardson International Airport was reporting -15.4C. I have no high and low from there yet.

As of 8PM EST, Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport was reporting a high of 34F and a low of 20F. I don't have the normals for the date.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

Yes, amusing that 'cherry picking' is something apparently only I do.

Arctic Sea Ice bottomed out in lowest extent in 2007 - and has not approached that level since then.

The 'ice free' Arctic as we speak:



And the polar bears?

It is apparently not enough that all those pictures of the 'poor polar bears' were photoshopped?

That the institutions crying out for protection of the polar bears not coincidentally gain the most from said animal's "status"?

That polar bear populations are higher now than at any time since the polar bear hunting ban was instituted?

The real threat to polar bears was people shooting them. Now we're inventing another one.



Steve,

Checking temperatures at a specific airport at a specific time is the definition of weather, not climate.

The surfacestations.org project has been for some time examining how the remaining temperature monitoring stations in the US are sited according to GISS' own guidelines.

The satelite photo of the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas and continents tells the story: The top of the world is choked with ice. Therefore, the location of climate stations on land is too near to buildings. (This is a no-brainer, so it is perfect for me.)

The next step in solving the climate puzzle would be to check the location of the world's climate stations. What has changed around these stations? What has been built around these stations, even at airports?

How much of the sky is covered by buildings, reflecting the heat from the ground?

The drunk at SF Int'l Airport keeps waundering around the lamp-post. The climate trend is unchanged........... This is a no-brainer: Check the landscape around the climate stations of the world, everywhere. What has been built around these stations?

My master's thesis should have been published! It was in the Geography Department of the Univ. of Minnesota at Minneapolis. The thesis was written for Dr. Skaggs.

There is too much heat stored in the oceans for climate change to amount to anything. So the entire global-warming thingy ignored the buildings, the heat capacity of the oceans, and the Arctic and Antarctic ice.

This is a no-brainer! It was a hoax, and this hoax could have cost the world trillions-of-dollars in carbon taxes, carbon accounting, junk science, junk inventions, etc.

Oh, how I wish I were young again! I would raise hell with "the experts" and "the consensus of scientists" and the EPA and the UN Climate Agency, NOAA, etc.

[Verrocchio]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

Points well taken, C1ue.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Jan 14th to be "MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMP" for the Upper Mid-west and throughout much of the South-eastern U.S.

You just watch the drunk, and keep watching him. How far does he stumble from the lamp-post, and for how long?

Do we have a climate-trend graph at these other airports? I like SF Int'l Airport because I get the graph there. I want to observe the drunk stumbling.

I like the Arctic Ocean ice. I like the Southern Ocean ice. I like observing the ice cap in Greenland and in Antarctica. And we will keep observing, year-after-year, decade-after-decade. Climatology is BORING!

Each day tells a story, and each year, and each decade..........Just keep watching.

Yes, Jan 14th was warm in Victoria, and the weather models were correct. The South-east U.S. was very cold....... But just keep watching.

The rare events in weather are just as interesting as the ordinary or common events. All of the events together make the climate.... So far, I am very bored!

Here is the actual data posted by Environment Canada and NOAA for Jan 14, 2011 in their official archive:

SF International Airport from the Daily Climate Report: max 60F, min 50F, mean 55F (+6F from normal);
Victoria International Airport: max 14.6C, min 8.0C, mean 11.3C (+4C from normal);
Winnipeg International Airport: max -13.2C, min -22.9C, mean -18.05C (+0.45C from normal);
Mpls-St.Paul International Airport: max 18F, min 14F, mean 16F (+4F from normal);
Atlanta International Airport: max 44F, min 20F, mean 32F (-10.0F from normal).