Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

[lakedaemonian]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/09/bu...pagewanted=all

The article has everything:

*An example of mortgage fraud

*Law School's knowingly benefitting from and encouraging FIRE education

*Grad school student with poor basic math skills

The only thing it's missing is a 1-800-LAWYERS business model charging $25/hour to talk to "Barry" in Mumbai or Manila

Maybe a couple of the better unemployed ones will find their calling by trying to fix what's fundamentally wrong with the American dream....it will probably require a couple lawyers along with the bunch of folks with experience making payroll.

[cbr]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

They forgot to point out that the loan is nondischargeable in bankruptcy AND if you default they revoke your law license.

[World Traveler]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

Another scary sign we're turning into a banana republic.

In Latin America in the 1980's and 1990's, when those economies tended to be terrible, it was difficult to find work as a lawyer or doctor, even with all the right degrees. It was the era of doctors and lawyers who drove taxis for a living.

In Latin America then, the population as a whole was simply too poor to afford the services of those credentialed personnel, and the lack of demand turned into a lack of employment opportunities.

This article makes a good point that merely moving to under-served localities or clientele will not solve the problem of newly degreed U.S. lawyers, since these under-served populations cannot afford their services.

[lektrode]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/09/bu...pagewanted=all

The article has everything:

*An example of mortgage fraud

*Law School's knowingly benefitting from and encouraging FIRE education

*Grad school student with poor basic math skills

The only thing it's missing is a 1-800-LAWYERS business model charging $25/hour to talk to "Barry" in Mumbai or Manila

Maybe a couple of the better unemployed ones will find their calling by trying to fix what's fundamentally wrong with the American dream....it will probably require a couple lawyers along with the bunch of folks with experience making payroll.

in short, The Definition of How We Got Here:

“Avoid this overpriced sewer pit as if your life depended on it,” writes the anonymous author of the blog Third Tier Reality — a reference to the second-to-bottom tier of the U.S. News rankings — in a typically scatological review. “Unless, of course, you think that you will be better off with $110k-$190k in NON-DISCHARGEABLE debt for a degree that qualifies you to wait tables at the Battery Park Bar and Lounge.”
But so far, the warnings have been unheeded. Job openings for lawyers have plunged, but law schools are not dialing back enrollment. About 43,000 J.D.’s were handed out in 2009, 11 percent more than a decade earlier, and the number of law schools keeps rising — nine new ones in the last 10 years, and five more seeking approval to open in the future.
Apparently, there is no shortage of 22-year-olds who think that law school is the perfect place to wait out a lousy economy and
the gasoline that fuels this system — federally backed student loans — is still widely available.

[don]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

So the federally backed student loans are being exploited by the law schools or something else....

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

I've been wondering when the extreme overcapacity of some degree granting institutions and/or individual programs is going to collapse?

Isn't all this excess higher education capacity analogous to all the excess real estate banks are sitting on?

Both(education institutions and banks) are still there...subsidized by fed backed loans.

Both are still selling something of nebulous and decreasing tangible value.

The banks got TARP.....do fed backed loans equate for the universities?

Or will universities need a massive injection of Fed "R&D" pork projects to keep the wheels spinning a bit longer?

EJ and others have written about the need for banks to look at writing down the value of their real estate loans.....I'm assuming the same argument could be made for writing down the value of education loans?

Especially since the actual tangible residual value of many of these educational experiences are probably far worse than vacant Florida trailer parks.

What's going to happen in higher education?

Surely the brand names like Harvard, Yale, Penn, Brown, MIT, CalTech will survive...probably the better run State Schools as well......and I would think many Community Colleges have a future as the education equivalent of McDonald's, Buger King, and the local Pizza joint.

But what about the middle...especially the private middle?

Consolidation I can see..........and closures...which means a lot of relatively well paid white collar left-leaning jobs evaporate.

Could we see multi-state consolidated public university systems to save some money?

I wonder how much efficiency can be gained on University back office and facilities management?

Personally, I think that unless I taught something momentarily hot at Commuity College or long-term forward looking in the Ivy League I'd be scared about whether I'm going to eat next semester.

I also can't help but get a LITTLE nervous thinking about all those over-educated, over-indebted, under-qualified, and unemployed twenty somethings....idle hands are the devil's workshop.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

I've been wondering when the extreme overcapacity of some degree granting institutions and/or individual programs is going to collapse?

I think it will continue until the FIRE economy is restructured.

Until then, fewer and fewer will have access to education while taking more and more debt and for a degree equivalent to those in emerging markets at a fraction of the costs; in other words - progress but in reverse.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

I think it will continue until the FIRE economy is restructured.

Until then, fewer and fewer will have access to education while taking more and more debt and for a degree equivalent to those in emerging markets at a fraction of the costs; in other words - progress but in reverse.

Largo - I agree with your first sentence, but disagree with the access part. The last thing any politician in the US on any side of the isle has to tout is the 'knowledge economy' driving 'economic development.' This means more 'higher education' for 'the future.' More gasoline on the FIRE.

No, there will not be fewer and fewer with access to education - but you do have the progress in reverse part right.

[Prazak]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

This was a really well-researched and well-written piece.

A couple of gems:

“I was 32 when I graduated, and at 32 you’re washed up in this field, in terms of a shot at the real deal. They perceived me as somebody they can’t indoctrinate into slave labor and work to death for seven years and then release if they don’t like you.”

"Hence the cliché: law school is a pie-eating contest where the first prize is more pie."

[Spartacus]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

I keep wondering when the same thing will happen with immigration - when countries like Canada that seemingly are pinning their hopes on immigration for more high earning immigrants (a few with significant money) and workers to feed the pensioners will stop getting immigrants.

Having seen parts of India, I bet immigration at least fromt here will continue for a long, long time ... but for the "best" candidates? It may not be long before most well qualified immigrant wanna-bes realize the deal's better at home.

That's the thing about tipping points, isn't it? You just never know when they'll dump some boiling McD's coffee in your lap.

in short, The Definition of How We Got Here:

the gasoline that fuels this system — federally backed student loans — is still widely available.

There's similar gasoline in the immigration system now too, at least here ... Australia & Canada guarantee work permits for graduates of 4 year institutions ... I'm not sure 2 year diploma institutions qualify but I think they do. Both austrlia and Canada will probably more than make up this investment at least in health care, but in other industries ...

The schools make more money off Visa students, so they have incentives to woo them. There's a decent sized immigration support industry big but not huge - lawyers and paralegals and consultants for all the paperwork.

And at least in India, I don't know about Africa & China & Vietnam and so on, there's an industry of promoters getting fees from some of these consultants. This is, of course, in addition to the promoters that promise the moon & disappear with the money.

[snakela]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

So the federally backed student loans are being exploited by the law schools or something else....

I'd say all schools, or at least many of them. My Alma mater has increased almost 70% or so since I graduated in 2003. My grad school was pretty expensive too and they still bug the sh*t out of me for money even though they have quarter-million dollar salaries to assistant deans, PR execs and millions to the coaches.

When they call or I'm approached by school reps for donations I always ask them why college tuition is outpacing inflation and there is never an answer. Just like there wasn't an answer in 2005 when I asked how a family making 50K a year can afford a 650K house in California.

[c1ue]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

I think it will continue until the FIRE economy is restructured.

Until then, fewer and fewer will have access to education while taking more and more debt and for a degree equivalent to those in emerging markets at a fraction of the costs; in other words - progress but in reverse.

Couldn't agree more.

If you believe, as I believe, that FIRE today has transcended its role in the economy from finance into being the parasitical arm of the new economic feudal lords, the role of ever spiraling higher education costs is itself a doubly worthwhile goal:

1) It creates wealth for the FIRE lenders
2) It creates massive economic barriers to the lower classes, thus improving control-ability and reducing competition.

Consider it a 'stupid tax' for the somewhat better educated but unworldly, much as lotteries are the 'stupid tax' for the uneducated and/or desperate.

[cbr]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

As an attorney I can also say that this is not new. Law schools and legal publications flat out falsified the figures for employment and salary expectations, buy at least 50%, way back in 1990. I have and never will give a dime to my law school, though I did receive a good education, as it was simply a scam. And yes, I did have lots of loans, the balance of which equaled my first years' total salary. And that was after my wife and I BOTH worked full time in law school.

Another FIRE tidbit, Sallie Mae deliberately adds false derogatory credit entries as a matter of practice and employs lots of dirty tricks in credit reporting. Not sure if its just mismanagement or if they try to kill people's credit to prevent refinancing on better terms.

[zoog]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

I'd say all schools, or at least many of them. My Alma mater has increased almost 70% or so since I graduated in 2003. My grad school was pretty expensive too and they still bug the sh*t out of me for money even though they have quarter-million dollar salaries to assistant deans, PR execs and millions to the coaches.

When they call or I'm approached by school reps for donations I always ask them why college tuition is outpacing inflation and there is never an answer. Just like there wasn't an answer in 2005 when I asked how a family making 50K a year can afford a 650K house in California.

Yep. It's not just law schools, or prestigious ivy league schools. The FIRE disease has infiltrated the entire higher education system.

In nominal terms, tuition, room, and board have gone up considerably since 1964, the first year in this data set. Public institutions increased 1193% and private institutions 1538%. Within that, tuition was the largest factor, rising 1768% and 1920% respectively.





Using the CPI-U for inflation adjustment, the totals for public institutions increased 86% and for private institutions 136%. Again, tuition has gone up the most, 169% for public and 191% for private.

[lektrode]

Re: Forest FIRE for Law School Graduates, NYTimes

Yep. It's not just law schools, or prestigious ivy league schools. The FIRE disease has infiltrated the entire higher education system.

uh huh - in particular the _economics_ dept heads in those institutions mentioned in INSIDE JOB - it was esp hilarious to watch them _squirm_ trying to come up with an answer to the rather simple questions the documentarist came up with - and try as they might, being smart as they (seem to be) - they obviously arent JD's

it was the ratings co's spokes-lyer that he interviewed that came across as a bit too smooth, that piqued the "suspension of disbelief"