Game Over: No commercial SILVER left

[FondoFinder]

Re: Game Over: No commercial SILVER left

Note that in Jon Nadler's commentary today, he stresses there is nothing to note in Lease rate fluctuations (at least for Gold):

http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/dec302010.html

And the silver lease rate went back to "normal" within a day or so:



Also, the Max Keiser Buy Silver Crash JPM videos are hardly viral at this time (50-60K views). Say 1,000 people actually act on it, and buy 1 or 2 ounces = $30K-$60K in silver sales.

http://www.youtube.com/results?searc...ver+crash&aq=f

[raja]

Re: Game Over: No commercial SILVER left

My own thesis runs as follows:

• 7-8 grain inputs to create one meat output of similar weight
• people used to eating meat do not willingly go back to eating rice and beans
• livestock land is decreasing as more productive land gets used in industrial ag, with outputs fed to meat animals in a faster fashion
• governments fall to starving hoardes, so governments will feed people (usually) before they waste money on other issues
• industial ag, for all it;s energy intensity, is still more useful than individual farmers with 10 acres and a mule
• when oil get VERY expensive, like the author Robert Hirsch says (see Financial Sense Newshour for interview), ag will come right after military in allocations for fuel
• if energy precludes greater use of fertilizers, reducing yields will increase product pricing as marginal land and crops fall off in the production realm
• increasing wold population is not being met with increasing arable land converted to ag production
• limited arable land in the world
• rising world standard of liming means greater demand for meat
• food is a very tradeable item for fuel, whereas more iPads are not

People may not willingly give up (or reduce) meat, but they must give it up if they can't afford it. As we go down the path toward Debt Serfdom, expect some dietary changes in store for the American People.

If People are forced to go back to rice and beans out of economic necessity, and "7-8 grain inputs to create one meat output of similar weight", then the present land used for meat production will produce 7-8 times in vegetal foods. In other words, the amount food produced on arable land has magically increased significantly due to dietary changes. This means a reduction in land prices, does it not?

I'm curious to know your plan . . . .
Would you buy farmland, then rent it out, or start a farming business on it, or just hold it for resale later?

I've been debating whether to buy more farmland. I already own a small farm, and I could expand my present cow herd. But I wonder if there would be a steady demand for beef giving people's shrinking pocketbooks.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Game Over: No commercial SILVER left

People may not willingly give up (or reduce) meat, but they must give it up if they can't afford it. As we go down the path toward Debt Serfdom, expect some dietary changes in store for the American People.

If People are forced to go back to rice and beans out of economic necessity, and "7-8 grain inputs to create one meat output of similar weight", then the present land used for meat production will produce 7-8 times in vegetal foods. In other words, the amount food produced on arable land has magically increased significantly due to dietary changes. This means a reduction in land prices, does it not?

I'm curious to know your plan . . . .
Would you buy farmland, then rent it out, or start a farming business on it, or just hold it for resale later?

I've been debating whether to buy more farmland. I already own a small farm, and I could expand my present cow herd. But I wonder if there would be a steady demand for beef giving people's shrinking pocketbooks.

people will give up their 3rd new flatscreen before they give up chicken (which is grain fed) and they will give up their new carpeting to buy hamburger -- well before they start eating rice and beans as a staple diet. but that is still years off. rising oil prices (or perhaps I should say undulating oil prices) will slowly "boil the frog", not bake it in one fell swoop. Americans will experience the EU energy pricing paradigm (and the EU will be in a whole new universe) in years to come, but if it does not happen overnight, they will adjust accordingly. Weekend trips will disappear, long vacations will be spent local or with family and friends. New purchases will be put off, and people will "bargain hunt" their purchases -- including food. But they won't give up what THEY consider staples (meat) to become vegetarians. And even if Americans do, the Chinese won't.

in the worst of cases, should the world become SO expensive that "animal grains" become less in demand, the land I own will support grass fed cows, some will do potatoes, fruit trees, etc.

my farmland is in Uruguay. it is "managed by wire" by me. I had my first crop (wheat) come in, and the Russians were very nice to me this year by burning their wheat. I figure my end return on my wheat crop will be in the area of 7% RO(land)I. normally I would double-crop the land in a year, but this year looks a bit dry for the summer so I will skip it. Next year the amount of land I have in production will be 3x what I had this year. It is all bought to farm, not to rent, as rental yields are poor compared to cropping.

Long-term, I am holding. You focused on one aspect of my "arguement" for owning farmland -- there are plenty of other reasons I cited. In the end, I hope my kids inherit the land as wel.

[Spartacus]

Re: Game Over: No commercial SILVER left

$30.91 nearing 4:30 pm.

SO CLOSE ... can Silver finish the year above 31 US$/oz ???????

It's a nail biter !!!

Nope.
damn.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Game Over: No commercial SILVER left

$30.91 nearing 4:30 pm.

SO CLOSE ... can Silver finish the year above 31 US$/oz ???????

It's a nail biter !!!

Nope.
damn.

No cigar

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Game Over: No commercial SILVER left

It looks like JPM is trying to make its own "perpetual silver motion" machine ...

Will JP Morgan Now Make and Take 'Delivery' of Its Own Silver Shorts?