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Foreclosure Fatigue

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  • Foreclosure Fatigue

    Foreclosure fatigue ... deficit fatigue ... fraud fatigue ... it's a national pandemic.

    Getting lost in the numbers is an easy thing especially with the magnitude of numbers being tossed out by Wall Street and our government. I think many in the country have just become apathetic to “billions” or “trillions” of dollars being thrown around as if this was a common part of daily dialogue. When California had its first budget fiasco with the housing market imploding a few years back a few billion dollars captivated the attention of the state for months on end. Today, even the prospect of a $28 billion deficit hardly seems to garner any attention. At a certain point people want more bread and circuses even if nothing has really changed in the underlying fundamentals of the economy. 1 out of 5 mortgages in the US is either underwater, in foreclosure, or modified but not making any payments. In fact, today we have the largest number of distressed properties on the books. The only reason the numbers have fallen is because of the “dirty current” mortgages that are modified and are now temporarily in the performing bucket. Yet these default at 50 percent or higher rates so it is more can-kicking behavior. If we even do a cursory look of MLS foreclosures on a US map we realize that housing problems are still largely present.

    Here is a map courtesy of Google showing active foreclosures:



    Google now offers this great feature that can overlay onto Google Maps and allows for the mapping of MLS active foreclosures. What are you looking at above? What you are seeing above is 5.2 million Americans living in homes that are now 60, 90+ delinquent, or bank owned.

    The above is the equivalent of a MRI scan on the housing market. Nationwide things are as bad as they have ever been. So you have to ask where all those trillions of dollars that were supposed to help the housing market went?


    http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/w...eo-socal-maps/

  • #2
    Re: Foreclosure Fatigue

    Forclosure fatigue. How about the bottom is almost in fatigue. I heard a gentleman with a great english accent on the radio today say "We are pretty pretty close to the bottom." he made sence until I kind of remembered him saying that last year.

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    • #3
      Re: Foreclosure Fatigue

      Originally posted by cjppjc View Post
      Forclosure fatigue. How about the bottom is almost in fatigue. I heard a gentleman with a great english accent on the radio today say "We are pretty pretty close to the bottom." he made sence until I kind of remembered him saying that last year.
      He'll be saying the same thing a year from now. And he'll still be wrong.

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      • #4
        Re: Foreclosure Fatigue

        Originally posted by swgprop View Post
        He'll be saying the same thing a year from now. And he'll still be wrong.
        Funny I thought the same thing. Unless he's right this time.

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        • #5
          Re: Foreclosure Fatigue

          And yet they continue to build near me. Then they sell them at near cost and go on to the next one. One way of getting rid of the lots I guess.

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          • #6
            Re: Foreclosure Fatigue

            Originally posted by flintlock View Post
            And yet they continue to build near me. Then they sell them at near cost and go on to the next one. One way of getting rid of the lots I guess.
            This isn't a straight forward, market driven, speculative building decision .

            Follow the money .

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            • #7
              Re: Foreclosure Fatigue

              Originally posted by don View Post
              This isn't a straight forward, market driven, speculative building decision .

              Follow the money .
              k

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              • #8
                Re: Foreclosure Fatigue

                Yes, I'm sure someone gets left holding the bag.

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                • #9
                  Re: Foreclosure Fatigue

                  Sometimes cashflow seems like all that matters. Keep all those balls up in the air, as long as receivables come in at rate enough to offset expenses, or make that minimum payment.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Foreclosure Fatigue

                    I know some of these guys think housing is going to make a comeback. Perhaps it will in some areas. My brother is a builder and he has NO PLANS to start anything in the near future, and he is one of the most optimistic guys I've ever known in that business. He was President of a major home builder in the US, so it's not like he doesn't have some knowledge about this stuff. He was talking about the housing bubble blowing up 5 or 6 years ago, only that didn't stop him from going out on his own a building a big whopper of a house. It was always everywhere else that was overpriced!

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                    • #11
                      Re: Foreclosure Fatigue

                      Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                      I know some of these guys think housing is going to make a comeback. Perhaps it will in some areas. My brother is a builder and he has NO PLANS to start anything in the near future, and he is one of the most optimistic guys I've ever known in that business. He was President of a major home builder in the US, so it's not like he doesn't have some knowledge about this stuff. He was talking about the housing bubble blowing up 5 or 6 years ago, only that didn't stop him from going out on his own a building a big whopper of a house. It was always everywhere else that was overpriced!
                      The housing market is weird, at least near me. The wife and I are almost empty-nest and looking to downsize. We looked at some nearby new build condos, detached and duplex.

                      They were asking $130 / sq ft plus $200/ mo condo fees, and they are selling them. $230,000 for an 1,800 sq ft condo in central Ohio.

                      Right across the street is a neighborhood full of nice single family homes about 5 years old, for the same price you can buy one 2,600 sq ft and no association fees and the seller would be delighted. Foreclosures are also widely available at steep discounts, but people are buying the new condos. (not us)

                      Weird.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Foreclosure Fatigue

                        Condos are about the only thing still selling for the builder my brother used to work for. Luxury condos $350-400k and up. I think it must be the low maintenance that is appealing. No yard, etc. That market(condo)has slowed but they are still building new ones . People have realized along with the bigger house goes the bigger utilities and expenses. But you're right, it wouldn't seem like any deal to me either. Perhaps its just the idea of not having to deal with maintenance workers and that sort. And they do tend to be rather flashy condos. With fancier trim, wide staircases, and balconies. Your money buys you less sq ft but more flashy features for the urban/suburban jet set who care more about a remote control fireplace than a garage on the same level as the kitchen. The geezer retirement condos are hot here also. 1600 sq ft unit in a quadraplex for $250k. Ridiculously overpriced for what you get imo. These folks will pay 2x just to live in a "retirement" complex, even though it offers no amenities. Funny how much "marketing" factors into all this.

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