The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

[mooncliff]

My advice to students has always been "Learn to do what machines cannot". Unfortunately, what machines cannot do is becoming less and less exponentially.

Video is quite amazing.

http://www.popsci.com/technology/art...kes-human-jobs

[Ghent12]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

The competition is everything that can compete--both machines and workers. Detractors of technological or productivity advances are historically always wrong and foolish in their beliefs, and I suspect the same may always be true--kind of like a natural law.

As time marches towards infinity, productivity and the quantity and quality of stuff will march towards infinity along with it. Unless there's some sort of sudden stop...

[don]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

As early ago as the 1950s a prominent question was, what would society do with all the leisure time created by all the new machines?

Hysterical, wasn't it

(Things turned out a bit differently, from the ending of the one-income family to today's 24/7 work expectations, made possible by new machines)

[mooncliff]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

What I mean is that a lot of physical labor and mental labor has been taken over by machines.

There are all kinds of jobs that no longer exist, like "computer", which originally meant a person who did calculations.

The next big demonstration of this will be the use of RFID tags for each item in the supermarket, replacing barcodes. The entire shopping basket will be scanned and you will just walk through, greatly reducing the number of cashiers.

The Chinese cheaper labor is a small part of what is happening. A larger part is that their factories are new and have much more efficient equipment.

[Mashuri]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

What I mean is that a lot of physical labor and mental labor has been taken over by machines.

There are all kinds of jobs that no longer exist, like "computer", which originally meant a person who did calculations.

The next big demonstration of this will be the use of RFID tags for each item in the supermarket, replacing barcodes. The entire shopping basket will be scanned and you will just walk through, greatly reducing the number of cashiers.

The Chinese cheaper labor is a small part of what is happening. A larger part is that their factories are new and have much more efficient equipment.

The reason why U.S. workers can earn 10x as much as Chinese workers is precisely because the U.S. has so many more machines. More machines = more capital = increased productivity per worker = higher pay per worker. Yes, said workers may have to learn new skills but thats what progress entails. Would you rather be stagnant or move backwards?

[don]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

There's is no guarantee that higher productivity = higher pay. There is no inherent progression there.

[coolhand]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

I once read that an economist or sociologist somewhere noted that humans, when presented with a surplus of materials, will increase their population numbers sufficient to help erode that spare time (or something to this effect.) We've done the same with machines, which is great as long as there is enough supplies of "critical stuff" to support the increased #'s of humans (water, food, oil). Jury's still out on that one. Next yr could be tight on some kinds of foods.

[Starving Steve]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

The long-term trend ( the mega-trend ) is that everyone in the world is going to be unemployed. Robots and machines will do everything, and do everything better.

Detroit is the future: better cars and cheaper cars with fewer defects, produced by robots. Duluth is the future: more grain, more iron ore, more tonnage shipped, and almost no workers at all. But this is just the beginning........

In San Jose-Santa Clara, California, the canneries were torn-down decades ago. Then came the geeks, and now the geeks are fast-disappearing. Those who sit drinking lattes on University Avenue in Palo Alto or in Los Gatos may soon disappear, too.

"Time marches on." (S.S. may have the last laugh.)

[Starving Steve]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

Yesterday, at Costco here in Langford, BC ( greater Victoria, BC), I noticed DE-FLATION in my grocery bill. There are more people than ever before in Greater Victoria here on Vancouver Island, yet some de-flation is now showing-up in the prices for my food.

This de-flation is not so with my water bill, nor with my tax bill, nor my energy bill, but maybe the de-flation in food is the beginning of a trend. Or maybe this recent drop in food prices is due to the higher Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar. Who knows?

[coolhand]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

Yesterday, at Costco here in Langford, BC ( greater Victoria, BC), I noticed DE-FLATION in my grocery bill. There are more people than ever before in Greater Victoria here on Vancouver Island, yet some de-flation is now showing-up in the prices for my food.

This de-flation is not so with my water bill, nor with my tax bill, nor my energy bill, but maybe the de-flation in food is the beginning of a trend. Or maybe this recent drop in food prices is due to the higher Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar. Who knows?

I would stock up on what you can, b/c food deflation is unlikely to last given a meeting w/an ag analyst that I sat in on recently, where the meat of the conversation was thus:

“As long as we have the 2^nd highest corn yield & 2^nd highest corn acreage ever, and exports to China don’t increase, & livestock feed usage declines, & ethanol usage doesn’t change, we won’t run out of corn next year.”

[coolhand]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

Yesterday, at Costco here in Langford, BC ( greater Victoria, BC), I noticed DE-FLATION in my grocery bill. There are more people than ever before in Greater Victoria here on Vancouver Island, yet some de-flation is now showing-up in the prices for my food.

This de-flation is not so with my water bill, nor with my tax bill, nor my energy bill, but maybe the de-flation in food is the beginning of a trend. Or maybe this recent drop in food prices is due to the higher Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar. Who knows?

and ag land prices here in the midwest are going ape shit - $8,000/ac in NW Ohio; stories of $13,000 per ac & $14,000 per ac in NW Iowa...big money is thinking corn is going A LOT higher - like $10/bu - to be paying cash for land like that.

[Mashuri]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

There's is no guarantee that higher productivity = higher pay. There is no inherent progression there.

Mis-allocated productivity, like the malinvestments caused by central bank, credit-induced bubbles, result in a net reduction of capital once said malinvestments inevitably correct. Increased capital still equals increased productivity. Decreased capital still equals decreased productivity.

[c1ue]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

More resurrected techno-topianism.

Machines are certainly fine in certain specific areas.

But so far there is nothing so versatile, cheap, and self-servicing as a human being.

Between acquisition costs, maintenance costs, and useable lifetime - machines just aren't as competitive as human beings.

The areas they are employed in are primarily simple rote tasks or areas where humans cannot survive/work effectively.

Ever try retasking a machine to do something significantly different?

How about debugging why a more complex machine is malfunctioning?

Or repair a machine of any significant complexity?

It is absolutely conceivable that this might change in the future, but it hasn't yet.

[Mashuri]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

More resurrected techno-topianism.

Machines are certainly fine in certain specific areas.

But so far there is nothing so versatile, cheap, and self-servicing as a human being.

Between acquisition costs, maintenance costs, and useable lifetime - machines just aren't as competitive as human beings.

The areas they are employed in are primarily simple rote tasks or areas where humans cannot survive/work effectively.

Ever try retasking a machine to do something significantly different?

How about debugging why a more complex machine is malfunctioning?

Or repair a machine of any significant complexity?

It is absolutely conceivable that this might change in the future, but it hasn't yet.

Your argument is refuting a non-existent premise (by me at least -- if this is directed at the premise of the OP, then disregard). Machines, like any other non-human capital, are here to enhance human productivity. Whether they are too costly to produce and maintain or not will reveal itself in profit / loss for their respective owners.

[Ghent12]

Re: The competition is not foreign workers, it is machines

Ever try retasking a machine to do something significantly different?

Many times it's as difficult for humans as well.

I see the involvement of machines as increasing the living standards of humans by an entire order of magnitude. We are and will remain essentially awash (at least in the "developed" countries) in the "basics" and create an ever-growing demand for skill and labor in maintaining/repairing/building ever more complex machines. It's no labor-less utopia, but it beats the hell out of any previous era.